Top 32 (+) with Grades

[j-off-her-doll]

Pretty simple grading system. 1, 2, or 3. The numbers represent likelihood for success. 1) Unlikely to achieve sustained success in NFL. 2) Good chance to achieve sustained success in a system conducive to the given player’s skill set. 3) Very likely to achieve sustained success. “S” indicates Strong, and “W” indicates Weak. And the +’s indicate upside. ++ indicates talent to be top 5 at given position. + indicates talent to be very productive, fringe Pro Bowl. Zero +’s indicate an upside that tops out at solid. You won’t see any on this list, but if a player is given a “-“, it indicates that the player just barely has enough talent to play in the NFL. Upside is not solely predicated upon athletic ability, but it’s obviously a factor.

Aaron Donald, for example is rated a W3+. I believe he’ll be a productive player for a long time, and he’s a freak athlete, but his size (for me) keeps him from being a solid 3, and it also keeps him as a single “+” player.

1. Greg Robinson 3++
2. Jadeveon Clowney W3++
3. Ryan Shazier 3++
4. Johnny Manziel S2++
5. Khalil Mack W3++
6. Sammy Watkins W3++
7. Taylor Lewan 3+
8. Jake Matthews 3+
9. Aaron Donald W3+
10. Jimmie Ward S2++

http://mrebird.wordpress.com/2014/04/06/top-32-with-grade/

 

[Dolphin39]

Great list that is very interesting for those of us who are not experts....thank you for sharing it.

However, where are the rest of the guys you predict we may target?

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Great list that is very interesting for those of us who are not experts....thank you for sharing it.

However, where are the rest of the guys you predict we may target?

You know, I have no idea what our FO will look to do. I can see them liking a guy like Kevin Pierre-Louis later in the draft at WLB. Undersized, explosive WLB with a good motor. BC used him to blitz a fair amount, and he was pretty good at it. One guy I'm liking in the later rounds (probably not for Miami) is the safety from Utah State, Maurice Alexander. CBS currently has him as their 461st prospect. But I think he could be a Kam Chancellor kind of SS. Big, strong, imposing in-the-box safety. 9 TFL from the safety position. Don't know a lot about him, but there seem to be major character concerns (both legally and with teammates - punched one, causing him to be dismissed from team).

 

[hoops]

that's the first time i have seen a grading system like this....kinda strange

does it mean shaziers like a top 3 rated prospect in the class or something....wowzers

 

[j-off-her-doll]

that's the first time i have seen a grading system like this....kinda strange

does it mean shaziers like a top 3 rated prospect in the class or something....wowzers

Yeah, I wanted a grading system that gives a quick look at a player (or how I view the player). The odds and potential payoff distinct but interactive. I'm guessing I'll have to work out some kinks, but I think 2++ paints a better picture than 8.13.

But yeah, I think a guy like Shazier only comes around once every five or ten years. He's about as clean as it gets, as safe as it gets, and he has all-world upside. If I had to bet on which player from this draft would end his career with the most All Pro teams, I'd bet Robinson then Shazier. Clowney's a freak, and he plays at a premium position.

 

[hoops]

Yeah, I wanted a grading system that gives a quick look at a player (or how I view the player). The odds and potential payoff distinct but interactive. I'm guessing I'll have to work out some kinks, but I think 2++ paints a better picture than 8.13.

But yeah, I think a guy like Shazier only comes around once every five or ten years. He's about as clean as it gets, as safe as it gets, and he has all-world upside. If I had to bet on which player from this draft would end his career with the most All Pro teams, I'd bet Robinson then Shazier. Clowney's a freak, and he plays at a premium position.

whether i agree or not i'm glad that you are willing to put it out there when you have a conviction...there's not many that do around here

 

[showstopper]

I respect the fact that you have your own analysis and not just a twitter clone follower opinion. Totally agree with your love for Shaz, my friends mock me for thinking of him as a top ten talent.

 

[justdev7]

I'd be interested to hear a little bit more about what you think of Moncrief. I think he has the physical tools to succeed at the X but he doesn't attack the ball like a guy that I would want to be a #1 WR. He reminds me of Jacoby Jones.

Also, i'm glad to see that you have Jason Verrett in thae middle of that group of CBs. I think he's been knocked too hard for his size. He makes plays on the ball regardless of the size of the guy he's going up against. I think he's more of a sure thing than Roby, Fuller, or Denard.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I respect the fact that you have your own analysis and not just a twitter clone follower opinion. Totally agree with your love for Shaz, my friends mock me for thinking of him as a top ten talent.

Saw recently that Kiper said you can make a case for Shazier as one of the 10 best players in this draft. You're not alone :^p

 

[Twitches Brew]

Also, i'm glad to see that you have Jason Verrett in thae middle of that group of CBs. I think he's been knocked too hard for his size. He makes plays on the ball regardless of the size of the guy he's going up against. I think he's more of a sure thing than Roby, Fuller, or Denard.

Verrett's definitely a first round talent, imo. I'd take either him or Fuller at 19, probably leaning towards Fuller between the two.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I'd be interested to hear a little bit more about what you think of Moncrief. I think he has the physical tools to succeed at the X but he doesn't attack the ball like a guy that I would want to be a #1 WR. He reminds me of Jacoby Jones.

Also, i'm glad to see that you have Jason Verrett in thae middle of that group of CBs. I think he's been knocked too hard for his size. He makes plays on the ball regardless of the size of the guy he's going up against. I think he's more of a sure thing than Roby, Fuller, or Denard.

In Moncrief, you have a Julio Jones level athlete. He's not super clean, imo - hence the W2++. But I do believe Bo Wallace held back his production. He can be productive early - just running bubble screens and goes.

I have the CB group as very tight. Verrett reminds me of Grimes with higher upside. I think Fuller is probably the surest thing - just because of his size and versatility.

 

[Fin Thirteen]

One guy I'm liking in the later rounds (probably not for Miami) is the safety from Utah State, Maurice Alexander. CBS currently has him as their 461st prospect. But I think he could be a Kam Chancellor kind of SS. Big, strong, imposing in-the-box safety. 9 TFL from the safety position. Don't know a lot about him, but there seem to be major character concerns (both legally and with teammates - punched one, causing him to be dismissed from team).

Interesting. Utah State had one of the best defenses (particularly run defenses) in the country. Even allowing for the fact they're Mountain West, there are some talented players on that defense. Alexander is one, they have a good CB and the guy I'm personally very interested in is Jake Doughty, 4-3 MLB. Borland clone, available in the 7th or maybe UDFA. Undersized, physical, instinctual, mobile, leader, difference maker. He might be a riser as he and all the Utah State prospects blew the doors off their pro day - so much so that the scouts went out and measured the 40yd track to be sure it wasn't short!

Of the late-round safeties, I like Alden Darby of Arizona State a lot. Really not sure why he isn't rated higher. A Bit like Duron Harmon of Rutgers last year (who I was bigging up a bit before the draft) he wasn't on the radar of any mock drafts whatsoever and then went to the Pats in the 3rd round. That was a big reach, but clearly there are late round guys out there who don't deserve the lack of attention they've had and I would put Doughty and Darby in that bracket.

---------- Post added at 10:30 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:29 AM ----------

In Moncrief, you have a Julio Jones level athlete. He's not super clean, imo - hence the W2++. But I do believe Bo Wallace held back his production. He can be productive early - just running bubble screens and goes.

I have the CB group as very tight. Verrett reminds me of Grimes with higher upside. I think Fuller is probably the surest thing - just because of his size and versatility.

Gilbert, Verrett, Fuller for me, in that order. Depending of course on your scheme fit.

 

[BlueFin]

Yeah, I wanted a grading system that gives a quick look at a player (or how I view the player). The odds and potential payoff distinct but interactive. I'm guessing I'll have to work out some kinks, but I think 2++ paints a better picture than 8.13.

But yeah, I think a guy like Shazier only comes around once every five or ten years. He's about as clean as it gets, as safe as it gets, and he has all-world upside. If I had to bet on which player from this draft would end his career with the most All Pro teams, I'd bet Robinson then Shazier. Clowney's a freak, and he plays at a premium position.

I've been thinking lately if Shazier mskes it to 19 we should grab him.

 

[futurescout]

No doubt Robinson #1. In 2-3 years I think he's the best offensive lineman in the league. No one ever mentions that both Watkins and Mack have been suspended.. pretty big red flag for a top 5 pick.. Shazier at #3 is high, but he's the real deal. Like Lavonte David-but can rush the passer/blitz and is an even more explosive hitter. 4.3 and 40 inch vert is insane. Supposed to be a really high character guy. I think he's 4-3 will only, but can be the best in the league. If Manziel was clean off the field he'd easily be the best QB but I think that will catch up to him. Getting kicked out of the Manning Camp is the biggest issue IMO. McCarron supposedly went out with him that same night and they roomed together, but McCarron could make it to the meeting.. Matthews should be over Lewan due to his talent, 5 position versatility, and bloodlines. He's the safest pick in the draft and Lewan has some character issues.. Really like Bucannon pro bowl caliber strong safety, poor man's Chancellor..Also Hageman is too inconsistent IMO to earn a top 32 grade.. Not sure why you're so high on Jimmie Ward and Kareem Martin.. wow Hill in the top 20? I don't see it. A RB in the 1st round? And with his past?????????????

 

[QFFL]

I like the list. I wonder how many of they will actually be drafted in the first round?