Top 32 (+) with Grades

[hoops]

interesting on the shazier front...i hear he played this last season at ohio st at 225 lbs...i knew he looked light in the pants...12 lb weight gain since then doesn't seem to have effected him in a bad way though given the way he tested

probably though more headed to playing in the low 230's as a pro...height will help though a little taller than lavonte david...

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Interesting. Utah State had one of the best defenses (particularly run defenses) in the country. Even allowing for the fact they're Mountain West, there are some talented players on that defense. Alexander is one, they have a good CB and the guy I'm personally very interested in is Jake Doughty, 4-3 MLB. Borland clone, available in the 7th or maybe UDFA. Undersized, physical, instinctual, mobile, leader, difference maker. He might be a riser as he and all the Utah State prospects blew the doors off their pro day - so much so that the scouts went out and measured the 40yd track to be sure it wasn't short!

Of the late-round safeties, I like Alden Darby of Arizona State a lot. Really not sure why he isn't rated higher. A Bit like Duron Harmon of Rutgers last year (who I was bigging up a bit before the draft) he wasn't on the radar of any mock drafts whatsoever and then went to the Pats in the 3rd round. That was a big reach, but clearly there are late round guys out there who don't deserve the lack of attention they've had and I would put Doughty and Darby in that bracket.

---------- Post added at 10:30 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:29 AM ----------



Gilbert, Verrett, Fuller for me, in that order. Depending of course on your scheme fit.

I like Darby a lot as a player, and I want to like him more as a prospect. At his Pro Day he weighed in at 194 and ran a 4.65. He's tested pretty solid in the other areas, but I sure hope that's not a friendly 40 time. But he shows great instincts, and he's a natural play maker. I think his size and athleticism keep him out of the first five rounds, but there's a lot to like too.

Nevin Lawson is the Utah State CB, and I think he has a shot at sticking around in the NFL. He's a physical, competitive little guy, and he has solid speed and quickness. I think he'll probably be a team's 1st slot CB by his 2nd season, and I think that will ultimately be his best position. In the Fresno St. game, Adams got him a couple of times, but he was competitive throughout the game. Alexander, though, is very natural around the LOS. He looks like an athlete, flowing through traffic, tackling, and in coverage, and he has that closing burst. I'm guessing his off-field issues are serious enough to push him toward the 6th-UDFA range, but he's a nice looking player. Played some of the season with a cast on his right hand, and even though he missed the 2012 because of his issues, he led the defensive rally huddles. If you have the longer room to handle him (probably not Miami), he has great upside.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

interesting on the shazier front...i hear he played this last season at ohio st at 225 lbs...i knew he looked light in the pants...12 lb weight gain since then doesn't seem to have effected him in a bad way though given the way he tested

probably though more headed to playing in the low 230's as a pro...height will help though a little taller than lavonte david...

Hoops, I'm curious to hear what you think the DE position after Clowney. I'm also interested on your views on DB's.

 

[spiketex]

Excuse my ignorance. What sort of track record does MREBIRD have in assessing talent in previous years? There appear to be lots of surprises in this assessment of comparative talent.
After every Draft Jeff Ireland would proudly proclaim the great value of many picks. However, last year many of the high early picks were either coming back from injury and unlikely to make an immediate contribution. (We will find out how good some of those draft picks were this year). If the method of assessing comparative players is significantly flawed, then it's a very crude tool.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Excuse my ignorance. What sort of track record does MREBIRD have in assessing talent in previous years? There appear to be lots of surprises in this assessment of comparative talent.
After every Draft Jeff Ireland would proudly proclaim the great value of many picks. However, last year many of the high early picks were either coming back from injury and unlikely to make an immediate contribution. (We will find out how good some of those draft picks were this year). If the method of assessing comparative players is significantly flawed, then it's a very crude tool.

Hi spiketex, the blog is new, but I've been posting on this site for a few years.

 

[hoops]

Hoops, I'm curious to hear what you think the DE position after Clowney. I'm also interested on your views on DB's.

frankly after the finnegan guaranteed 2014 salary signing i stopped really paying attention to corner and at de we are 4 deep already...guys that have already locked up spots on the 53 so if any resources go there imo it will be very late projects with upside or udfa type signings...

but if you ask me about specific players i can give you my take...

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Cool, cool. I know you don't like him, but I'd be interested to hear where you think Jeffcoat fits in this draft.

Also, how about a Bradley Roby or Nevin Lawson (either or both)?

 

[Fin Thirteen]

Cool, cool. I know you don't like him, but I'd be interested to hear where you think Jeffcoat fits in this draft.

Also, how about a Bradley Roby or Nevin Lawson (either or both)?

Teams who ignore one bad final season and draft guys off their cumulative playing history seem to do particularly well. I think there's potential value with Jeffcoat, James Gayle, Roby and quite a few other players whose stock falls in their last year. There can be all sorts of mitigating factors, some of them outside the player's control. I wouldn't say it's a universal theme (see Matt Barkley) but I would definitely as a GM have my little database of guys who are slipping because they looked less convincing in a minority of games than they did in the majority.

There's some value there, imo.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Teams who ignore one bad final season and draft guys off their cumulative playing history seem to do particularly well. I think there's potential value with Jeffcoat, James Gayle, Roby and quite a few other players whose stock falls in their last year. There can be all sorts of mitigating factors, some of them outside the player's control. I wouldn't say it's a universal theme (see Matt Barkley) but I would definitely as a GM have my little database of guys who are slipping because they looked less convincing in a minority of games than they did in the majority.

There's some value there, imo.

The interesting thing about Jeffcoat - imo - is that he was seen as a fringe 1st RD pick in the 2013 draft (weaker class, granted) after a relatively unproductive junior season. He comes back and has a very good season - 13 sacks, 19 TFL, 15 QB hurries, 2 FF's, 1 INT, and 82 total tackles. He also tested well at the combine. I get that there are legitimate concerns about his bulk and movement in space, but he can get after the QB, and he has a high motor. In most drafts, I'd say he's a lock to go in the 2nd.

 

[hoops]

as i recall jeffcoats undersized...i dont see the movement skills to play a every down 34 olb i dont see the size to play a every down de...i think he's a tweener...i'm not a fan personally...

would pass on that

roby is interesting but i think he can be an ankles tackler a dive tackler at times...late 1st early 2nd i think he comes off...explosive...my grade would be more in the 50 range but he's not a guy i would target...

james gayle will never make it in the nfl as a pass rusher...doesnt have the tools or upside...would not draft...don't see any upside there

 

[hoops]

jeremy hill increased his 40 time to low 4.5's from low 4.6's at the combine yesterday...that was big for him imo...big back showed long speed on tape for his size...if he gets out of the top 50 given the way he's cleaned his name in nfl front offices i will be floored

someone gonna get a hell of a value later than they should in wr jarvis landry...dropped his 40 from 4.7 to 4.61 yesterday...love this kid...top 5 wr...should go top 50 easy but the wheels may drop him further in this class...tough as nails

evidently trai turner put on a show as well...i'm not as high on beckham as others...i see a guy that runs 3 routes primarily the returns ability is nice but all this top 20 stuff or potential is too rich

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I'd be happy drafting Hill in the 2nd. I had to knock him because of his combine performance (as I did Landry), but he looked leaner and meaner (that LA Kings hat was tough!) at his pro day. Also improved his vert to 31". I couldn't find his weigh-in results for the day, but I'd guess he was under 230.

 

[hoops]

i think the way you look at it is he's a 4.55 guy at 230 lbs that runs thru contact and with power...in the late 4.4's at that size probably could justify higher but as is early to mid 2nd i'd say...

if it gets out of the 2nd it's got to be off the field related...

 

[j-off-her-doll]

i think the way you look at it is he's a 4.55 guy at 230 lbs that runs thru contact and with power...in the late 4.4's at that size probably could justify higher but as is early to mid 2nd i'd say...

if it gets out of the 2nd it's got to be off the field related...

Saw a report from Russ Lande (I only saw highlights of the pro day) who said Hill displayed agility and acceleration usually reserved for smaller backs and that he caught the ball very well. I believe he said that he looked natural.

I rank Hill as high as I do for a few reasons.

1. RB's get knocked for shelf life, but most good prospects last through their rookie contracts.
2. The best teams in the NFL rely on their running game.
3. I think he has the right combination of size/strength and quickness/speed. I think people want RB's to look like Barry Sanders or Earl Campbell. Not too many players are going to shake NFL defenders out of their shoes, and not too many players are going to run through 5 NFL defenders. You want a guy who has the feet to make a defender off balance and the strength to run through arm tackles.
4. He's very natural running the ball. I like Slimm's comparison to Larry Johnson, but I also see some Arian Foster to his game. He's a natural glider.

RB's are - rightly or wrongly - devalued, so I'm not advocating drafting him higher than you have to, but I think he's one of the best 32 players in the draft.

 

[Twitches Brew]

Saw a report from Russ Lande (I only saw highlights of the pro day) who said Hill displayed agility and acceleration usually reserved for smaller backs and that he caught the ball very well. I believe he said that he looked natural.

RB's are - rightly or wrongly - devalued, so I'm not advocating drafting him higher than you have to, but I think he's one of the best 32 players in the draft.

RBs are being wrongfully de-valued. Pretty badly, imo, when you're talking young QBs.

Case in point: Here's a list of stud QBs, along with the backfields they had in their first couple years. Stud RBs or just a heavy ground game are invaluable to developing a QB in his first couple years.

Peyton: Marshall Faulk & Edgerrin James
Brady: Dillon, run-heavy
Brees: L Tomlinson
Rivers: L Tomlinson
Eli: Tiki
Ben: Bettis, run-heavy
Matt Ryan: Turner in his prime (1,800yds)
Flacco: Rice
Wilson: Lynch
Kaep: Gore

These are the guys making Superbowls. Look at the help they had when they entered the League. These are the kinds of workhorses you can lean on for entire drives and stretches of a game, feature backs who set up manageable third downs and put it in the endzone. And here we are developing Tannehill with mighty Moreno, Miller, and Thomas...smh.