Top 5 Coming into Focus

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Just read an article in Pro Football Weekly that indicated the top five players for the draft are coming into focus. Very different scenario from last year where it was debated who was 1-5 up until the draft.

Anyway, for what's it's worth in no particular order: Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, D'Brick Ferguson, Mario Williams and Michael Huff. Huff surprised me because I've been reading top 20, but not top 5 for him.

 

[kastofsna120]

mario williams has been disappointing this year to me. he's got tons of talent, but he takes plays off. still, i can see how people would rank him in the top 5. huff surprised me...i would've figured it'd be jimmy williams as a top 5 lock

actually i think we can pinpoint the top 3, in no particular order:

leinart
bush
brick

 

[caneaddict]

Actually the article also includes Vince Young in that top 5 category should he declare for the draft. I know alot of people bash him but personally I would love to get him.

My theory is that essentially what you want is to win football games. Ideally you would like a measurement for each player that will correlate with their ability to help win games. For receivers it might be receiving yards or TD's, for CB's the measurement might be plays given up. The problem is these don't directly relate to winning games. For instance you might find some freak WR who can't catch but somehow because of where he lines up and his size/speed he can crush anyone on that side of the field so that the RB can run for TD's. Now imagine this WR, whatever team he played for caused the team to win because while they never throw to him, his presence allows the RB to run for 500 yards and 10 TD's per game. He would have to be considered the most valuable player in football even though normal metrics can't measure anything special about him.

Mike Vick and some running QB's are the same way. They may not throw alot, but their ability to force a defender to spy them and keep the DE's from giving up containment as well as their ability to extend plays, allowing something to develop and finally the ability to take a broken play and still gain a 1st down makes them potentially very valuable to the win/loss column even though the QB rating metric doesn't reflect that.

So everyone who wants to move mobile QB's to RB or WR is overlooking that a Mike Vick throwing for 160 yards and rushing for 40 yards with a 70 QB rating may give your team a better chance to win than a pocket passer who throws for 400 yards and 3 TD's in that same game. Ultimately you want to win, not get great stats for the QB.

I don't think Vince Young is the next Vick but I think he has special qualities that can't be measured by a QB rating. I've watched him play and every time all I can think is how much I'd love for him to be our QB with Ricky and Ronnie in the backfield.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Actually the article also includes Vince Young in that top 5 category should he declare for the draft. I know alot of people bash him but personally I would love to get him.

My theory is that essentially what you want is to win football games. Ideally you would like a measurement for each player that will correlate with their ability to help win games. For receivers it might be receiving yards or TD's, for CB's the measurement might be plays given up. The problem is these don't directly relate to winning games. For instance you might find some freak WR who can't catch but somehow because of where he lines up and his size/speed he can crush anyone on that side of the field so that the RB can run for TD's. Now imagine this WR, whatever team he played for caused the team to win because while they never throw to him, his presence allows the RB to run for 500 yards and 10 TD's per game. He would have to be considered the most valuable player in football even though normal metrics can't measure anything special about him.

Mike Vick and some running QB's are the same way. They may not throw alot, but their ability to force a defender to spy them and keep the DE's from giving up containment as well as their ability to extend plays, allowing something to develop and finally the ability to take a broken play and still gain a 1st down makes them potentially very valuable to the win/loss column even though the QB rating metric doesn't reflect that.

So everyone who wants to move mobile QB's to RB or WR is overlooking that a Mike Vick throwing for 160 yards and rushing for 40 yards with a 70 QB rating may give your team a better chance to win than a pocket passer who throws for 400 yards and 3 TD's in that same game. Ultimately you want to win, not get great stats for the QB.

I don't think Vince Young is the next Vick but I think he has special qualities that can't be measured by a QB rating. I've watched him play and every time all I can think is how much I'd love for him to be our QB with Ricky and Ronnie in the backfield.

Nice post. What amazes me is that the qb rating system doesn't even account for what a qb can do with his legs -- either by avoiding sacks or gaining yardage on the ground. Those are important factors in winning a game. Vick's qb rating might be 70, but if he gains 70 yards on five carries and keeps drives alive that should count for something. Marino's ability to avoid a sack should be factored into the qb rating as another example. Rob Johson is an example of a qb who would take a sack rather than throw an incomplete pass. His qb rating might be high, but those were costly negative plays that hurt his team.

I agree with you. Young is very exciting and it would be interesting to see what he could do with Miami. I do realize he is far from a finished product and would take Leinart over him, but Young is intriguing.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

mario williams has been disappointing this year to me. he's got tons of talent, but he takes plays off. still, i can see how people would rank him in the top 5. huff surprised me...i would've figured it'd be jimmy williams as a top 5 lock

actually i think we can pinpoint the top 3, in no particular order:

leinart
bush
brick

I agree on the top 3. It certainly is much clearer than last year. In fact, two months before the draft last year Smith was talked as a third rounder.

 

[kastofsna120]

huh? alex smith was a first rounder for last month or so of the season. 2 months before the draft he was ranked as one of the top QBs in the draft

as much of a bad QB vick is, at least he has a great arm on him. not accurate at all, but the cannon is there. only only does young have a weak arm, but he's not accurate AND he's slower and less agile than vick. and his mechanics suck, too. about the only plus he has on vick is that he scures the ball better, which is important, because he should be a receiver in the NFL

 

[Buddwalk]

mario williams has been disappointing this year to me. he's got tons of talent, but he takes plays off. still, i can see how people would rank him in the top 5. huff surprised me...i would've figured it'd be jimmy williams as a top 5 lock

actually i think we can pinpoint the top 3, in no particular order:

leinart
bush
brick

Yeah i agree on both williams. Huff is in no way a top 5 player...yes hes probobly the best safety entering this draft but i think saying that i doubt hes a top 15 pick. Leinart, Bush, and Brick looks like locks for the top 3

 

[SMadison29]

Huff surprised me because I've been reading top 20, but not top 5 for him.

Yep, I've been on his case for a couple weeks now, I think I had him 10 when we did our top 15 prospects thread. A play maker that can play anywhere in the secondary & do it well.

Huff is in no way a top 5 player...yes hes probobly the best safety entering this draft but i think saying that i doubt hes a top 15 pick.

SS Michael Huff of Texas, can play either safety position or CB at both levels, is a difference maker in the secondary & has 5 defensive TDs (4 via int & 1 fumble return), one defensive TD away from tying the NCAA record. He's started every game but one since his freshman year at SS or CB. Was on Texas' track team & runs a very solid 4.4, & because of his speed he may surpass Jimmy Williams as the top DB. I can't imagine us having a FS with 4.4 speed that can tackle & cover, that would be different. He'll go somewhere around pick 10.

 

[kastofsna120]

huff's athletic ability is on par with sean taylor, although i haven't watched him close enough to know how he stands in football smarts

 

[ether79]

huff's athletic ability is on par with sean taylor, although i haven't watched him close enough to know how he stands in football smarts

He has enough football intelligence to warrant a top 15 selection IMO. I really like his ability to play all postions in the secondary which is apparent from watching him.

 

[Buddwalk]

huff's athletic ability is on par with sean taylor, although i haven't watched him close enough to know how he stands in football smarts

Eh i think your giving a big more credit then he deserves. Sean Taylor is the best safety to come out of college in a long time dude [I think coming out he was better than roy williams and ed reed] Anyway Huff takes plays off...but still so hes a 1st round lock. The guy is a playmaker when he plays. [Darnell Bing is better IMO]

 

[kastofsna120]

Eh i think your giving a big more credit then he deserves. Sean Taylor is the best safety to come out of college in a long time dude [I think coming out he was better than roy williams and ed reed] Anyway Huff takes plays off...but still so hes a 1st round lock. The guy is a playmaker when he plays. [Darnell Bing is better IMO]

i said last year that sean taylor was the best player ever to come out of miami. and i still stick to that (although he's had some horrible off-the-field things to hinder his process). huff is very talented athletically, although i don't know if he's at the same level football-wise as taylor, becasue i haven't really watched him. i'm not really giving him any credit at all; i don't know much about him

 

[caneaddict]

huh? alex smith was a first rounder for last month or so of the season. 2 months before the draft he was ranked as one of the top QBs in the draft

as much of a bad QB vick is, at least he has a great arm on him. not accurate at all, but the cannon is there. only only does young have a weak arm, but he's not accurate AND he's slower and less agile than vick. and his mechanics suck, too. about the only plus he has on vick is that he scures the ball better, which is important, because he should be a receiver in the NFL

You're saying Young has a weak arm, poor mechanics, is not accurate, and is not necessarily fast or agile for a running QB.

No one is as fast or agile as Vick. You don't need to be in order to force the defense to commit a spy and force the DE's to commit to not breaking containment (which frees up room for the RB's and WR's to be more productive). Young is VERY athletic from what I've seen. He has a very good arm and has thrown some remarkable passes. He's very big and strong so it's also very tough to wrap him up and sack him. Have you watched him this year?

If you have watched his games including Ohio State and ND then I guess we just have very different opinions on what we see.

While I didn't think highly of Young coming into the season (neither did most draft experts), his play this year has completely changed my mind. Others are clearly seeing some of the qualities I see because almost all updated draft boards I've seen that account for Juniors who may come out, have him rated very high. I'm not sure if he'll come out but if he does, I would say that depending on team needs he will go between 4-10 overall. I actually don't think he'll be around when we pick if he comes out but if he is, I would bet anything that Saban takes him.

 

[kastofsna120]

You're saying Young has a weak arm, poor mechanics, is not accurate, and is not necessarily fast or agile for a running QB.

No one is as fast or agile as Vick. You don't need to be in order to force the defense to commit a spy and force the DE's to commit to not breaking containment (which frees up room for the RB's and WR's to be more productive). Young is VERY athletic from what I've seen. He has a very good arm and has thrown some remarkable passes. He's very big and strong so it's also very tough to wrap him up and sack him. Have you watched him this year?

If you have watched his games including Ohio State and ND then I guess we just have very different opinions on what we see.

While I didn't think highly of Young coming into the season (neither did most draft experts), his play this year has completely changed my mind. Others are clearly seeing some of the qualities I see because almost all updated draft boards I've seen that account for Juniors who may come out, have him rated very high. I'm not sure if he'll come out but if he does, I would say that depending on team needs he will go between 4-10 overall. I actually don't think he'll be around when we pick if he comes out but if he is, I would bet anything that Saban takes him.

no the question isn't whether YOU have watched him or not, it's whether you know WHAT you're watching. to quote jim mora:

"you think you know, but you don't know, and you never will"

 

[Buddwalk]

IMO Vince Young most projects to Aaron Brooks in the NFL