Tua is catching up...

[rickd13]

Disagree. It depends on what you're looking at as well as the interpretation of it. If I had a really good offensive line and running game, I'd go for two constantly. All you have to do it hit at least 50% success rate for it to be worth it.

It's just amusing to me that it's generally the old guys who hate stats and prefer to "listen to the gut" as if it's any real reason to be lazy.

I get your assumption about only having to be 50% successful on two point conversions equaling the same as making all of your extra points, but that only holds up in a macro sense. In other words, for the whole season that would equal out, but on a game to game basis if you're less successful than 50% that day, it could be costly.

 

[fishfanmiami]

Every coach at major schools have a stats assistant on staff most likely and are presented with the percentages for every occasion.
When to go for two , whatever

The coach probably goes by these more or less unless he has a gut feeling and goes another way.
When the game is on the line I doubt a coach gets a crap what the percentages say. It's all gut feelin IMO

 

[Namor]

Dawn Wells had some legs back in the day

I swear I love u guys.lol

 

[NBP81]

Funny stuff when coaches start buying in to some of the analytics. Your successful coaching days are over once you start listening to some of that stuff.

I dont think they are TBH.... The game theory aspect of analytics is something I think can be improved upon by NFL coaches. You're talking about going for it on every 2 point converstion, while every is not the solution, there's certainly a profitable balance between every and never. Another example of this is 4th and short. NFL coaches would benefit greatly from upping up the aggression in that department in some situations and they're clearly not interested in doing so. Be it because of job security reasons or fear of inevitable press conf questions if it didnt work in that particular instance.

Either way, Im perfectly aware that you'll forget more football than I will ever know but I disagree on this one... Analytics are just another tool for football coaches and those who refuse to use it are just willfully putting themselves at a disavantage...

 

[Kamelion4291]

How many championships have you won young fella?

It’s just amazing to me that it’s generally the young fanboys who think they know things they don’t know. Everybody is an expert on the internet. That’s why they’re on it all the time.

Come on over to coachhuey.com and share your expertise with us. Make sure to use your handle here when you sign up.

How many NFL championship rings do you have on your finger right now from coaching?

It's great that you're a big fish in your small little pond, but if you're going to sit here and pretend like you couldn't do better with things like analytics... Well, that's why you're on a message board talking about yesteryear.

Cute.

 

[finfinfin]

I was trying to quote the Gillian post....jumped the curb

 

[Lionstone]

Yes, at least thats my interpretation of it... I mean if you go beyond mainstream statistics and start connecting dots with nextgen stats, the kid is flat out impressive for a guy with so few starts... And I want to emphasize Im not talking about TD/INT ratio, total yards, YPA and all that stuff...

I'll try to put it in a readable sentence here and it might not be extra readable but whatever...

Tua throws deeper on average than most QBs into smaller windows than all QBs throwing less INTs than all QBS doing it faster than most QBs...

Excellent job converting the stats to a readable sentence. I think the stats have their use, and I do believe there is some validity. My concern is that the WR inability to separate artificially raises the implied performance. What happens if you compare only the QBs that have the five worst separation from their WR. Does the picture change?

 

[NBP81]

My concern is that the WR inability to separate artificially raises the implied performance. What happens if you compare only the QBs that have the five worst separation from their WR. Does the picture change?

I understand what you mean. Im not trying to imply performance here as much as Im saying Tua is performing at this rate in spite of of his environment.

I have to do this manually as nextgenstats dont let you download data from them so I have to fill my 2 screens with different sorted tabs... They use javascript so I'd have to code a selenium program to scrape the site and I have no motivation to do so...

AGG% and Intended air yards, top 10 in both:

Player/Rating
Tua 95.2
Flacco 80.6
Wentz 72.8
Drew Lock 74.8

AGG% and Time to Throw, top 10 in both:

Tua 95.2
Fitzpatrick 93.1
Nick Foles 81

Time to throw and air yards to the sticks, top 10 in both:

Tua 95.2
Tom Brady 96.3

Tua is the only player on all 3 lists. I do think the first one is a good indicator of what Tua is doing, he's throwing deeper into smaller windows, something only 3 other NFL QBs are being asked to do, and they're failing miserably doing so...