Vegas: Gase 2nd Most Likely Coach To Be Fired

[superphin]

I would disagree and see a definite correlation between not just franchise-level QBs and their Wonderlic scores but "winning" QBs in general

First to your point re UFA QBs.
One site lists the following 9 (actually 10 but Warren Moon was discriminated against so he doesn't count) I could not find corresponding wonderlics for Dave Krieg, Jon Kitna, Jim Hart, Mike Tomczak, Jeff Garcia or Eric Kramer but I did find them for Kurt Warner(29), Tony Romoa(37) and Jake Delhomme(32). I also determined that the avg QB score is 24 http://www.realclearsports.com/charts/starting_qb_wonderlic_scores-20.html

So I would say that in general, intelligence helped some of the more successful UFA QBs overcome perceived weaknesses. OTOH, the ones no one has heard of were considered enough of a prospect to be administered the test and perhaps the test only confirmed that in a position even in college where smarts help, most of them fell short.

Now as to Jeff George with the Golden Arm - wasn't it his intelligence or lack there of that was his undoing? Ditto Vince Young whose impressive athleticism could not overcome his mental inabilities. In hindsight, knowing what you know, would you have spent even a 3rd rounder on either of them?

And that's the point: there is not a single QB of the 16 who scored 13 or below registered prior to Jackson's 13 who knowing how it turned out would not justify even a 3rd round pick.

Dallas in the 1970s was the first team to administer the test so conservatively speaking, it's been used by the NFL at least 38-40 years. In that time if a conservative average of 4 QBs per draft were taken, that would be about 160 QBs. If 16 scored 13 or below, that would be 10%. Really, if you had several $millions to wager, barely the equivalent of a 1st or 2nd round picks would you take a 1 in 10 bet that any scoring 13 or below would be successful?

And that would be zero out of est. 160 who turned out to be a franchise-level QB.. Would you wager that amount that after all this time and QBs, this would be the first anomaly? I think not. IMO you actually stand a still rather statistically irrelevant but better chance of getting a franchise QB by signing a high wonderlic-scoring UFA.

I agree intelligence helped some of the more successful udfa but at the same time we can't determine if a lack of intelligence was the determining factor in the lack of success for the one's that didn't make it. As an udfa it could be simply they didn't have the physical tools required as in not having an NFL caliber arm or other physical traits that are desired. It doesn't matter how much intelligence or heart you have if you simply don't have the arm to make NFL caliber throws.

I think it's fair to say if a college QB has a 1st round grade based on game tape and great combine numbers; teams would disregard a low wonderlic and grade him as a 1st round pick.

Also intelligence can mean different things to different people especially when it comes to sports or non traditional academia. LeBron James has one of the highest B-ball IQ's ever but if you ever heard him speak he sounds like someone who got by in HS based on his athletic gifts. So the question is can someone have a high football IQ but a below average IQ outside of their sport. I think the answer is yes. Now correct me if I'm wrong but I don't believe the wonderlic has anything to do with football related questions.

I used to give people an aptitude test for a living and while some people failed due to just being dumb other's failed for a lack of preparation or just not being good test takers or other reasons. I think the same can apply to some low scoring wonderlic testers.

As far as I remember Jeff George was a selfish player who lacked leadership.

 

[Vaark]

I agree intelligence helped some of the more successful udfa but at the same time we can't determine if a lack of intelligence was the determining factor in the lack of success for the one's that didn't make it. As an udfa it could be simply they didn't have the physical tools required as in not having an NFL caliber arm or other physical traits that are desired. It doesn't matter how much intelligence or heart you have if you simply don't have the arm to make NFL caliber throws.

I think it's fair to say if a college QB has a 1st round grade based on game tape and great combine numbers; teams would disregard a low wonderlic and grade him as a 1st round pick.

Also intelligence can mean different things to different people especially when it comes to sports or non traditional academia. LeBron James has one of the highest B-ball IQ's ever but if you ever heard him speak he sounds like someone who got by in HS based on his athletic gifts. So the question is can someone have a high football IQ but a below average IQ outside of their sport. I think the answer is yes. Now correct me if I'm wrong but I don't believe the wonderlic has anything to do with football related questions.

I used to give people an aptitude test for a living and while some people failed due to just being dumb other's failed for a lack of preparation or just not being good test takers or other reasons. I think the same can apply to some low scoring wonderlic testers.

As far as I remember Jeff George was a selfish player who lacked leadership.

Be all that as it may, through the perspective of 20/20 hindsight there is not a single QB in the Sub-14 scoring group who would have even justified a 2nd round investment, let alone a 1st! And an argument can be made either way in regard to a 3rd.

Now as adamently as I was against using a First on Jackson for all these logical and empirical probability-based reasons I also had indicated that if we could have traded down into the late 2nd to harvest another pick, I would have been still skeptical but okay with Jackson as the pick --- I'd have been using a 3rd.

 

[Phinatic8u]

I don’t care about Wonderlic scores.

You can either play or you can’t. And Lamar Jackson can play. He ran a pro style (conceptually) offense and had one the most dominant college careers ever.

Carried his team weekly and grinded his way to stardom after only being a 3* recruit..

He’s gonna succeed just fine in the NFL.

 

[Michael Scott]

I don’t care about Wonderlic scores.

You can either play or you can’t. And Lamar Jackson can play. He ran a pro style (conceptually) offense and had one the most dominant college careers ever.

Carried his team weekly and grinded his way to stardom after only being a 3* recruit..

He’s gonna succeed just fine in the NFL.

110% agree. I think the only thing that can possibly hold him back is if he runs into durability issues with his playing style. But I definitely think they'll make sure he knows when/where to slide down before they hand him the keys to the offense.

 

[JahnDho]

they are about 2 to 3 yr away the best team in that div is pitt, bal than cinn. Jackson shouldn't have taken that job...it a uphill battle. without top 10 qb. Tyrod will get them in right direction w 4 or 5 win this yr. their is no rookie going step in and change Cleveland in 1yr....

I think Cleveland is a big time sleeper. They had 25 picks in the first 3 rounds over the past 5 years...almost half are starters (mostly on D) and a few more get a good amount of playing time. Going to be young, fast and hungry for a big 2nd contract. Have them with 9 wins.

 

[JahnDho]

Is it possible, knowing the unsuccessful outcome probability, that Jackson is more aware and gets the support and wisdom Vince Young may not have received?

 

[The Goat]

Jackson got a 13 and Marino had a 16. There are several reports saying Ross wanted us to trade backband take a qb. What other qb was worth taking in the first round?

Anything else?

Please show your work.

 

[The Goat]

With Jameis Winston suspended three games for committing sexual assault, I am definitely going to double down on Koetter being the best value there. Not because I think the team will be that much worse with Ryan Fitzpatrick, but because I think that locker room is going to go even more off the rails.

The more I watch the Winston situation, the more I start to wonder if her's going to be released.

 

[The Ghost]

FROM Florio Today: Which coach will be fired first.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/06/25/which-coach-will-be-fired-first/

Gase is a surprise at +750, and that’s another bet to avoid. He took the team to the playoffs in 2016, and he navigated a season of endless turmoil in 2017. The many doubters will serve only to strengthen the resolve of Gase and his team, which likely will be more of a team than it was given the departures of possibly-not-team-first players like Jarvis Landry, Ndamukong Suh, and Mike Pouncey.

Hmmmm