Of course you would.. Shocker
Vegas puts Dolphins over/under win total at 7.5
- Thread starter Nublar7
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Of course you would.. Shocker
NYPhin24
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as if we expected anything different... ....:rolleyes2:
mialuv13
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Yep same as last year. Realistically 7.5 sounds pretty fair. We won't really be able to predict much until we can see this offense on the playing field, but right now I'd take 7-8 wins...I'd be afraid to go with the over on the Phins though, but I'd love to see that.
You would go with the Jets over and Miami under, but just for a fun rebuttal I'll go with push on NE, over Miami, push Bills, and Under Jets haha. The Jets and Miami will be featuring new offenses so neither of us will realistically be able to predict it how they will do.
If Sparano decides to have an offense that's just full of shiny bells and whistles (i.e. wildcat or pistol or w/e they want to call it) and a run heavy offense, expect the Jets to be under 8.5 once teams figure the scheme out. Sparano isn't really known for making solid adjustments considering that 2 of the 3 years he was here we failed miserably towards the end of the season.
insom187
Fin fan in hostile territory
With their easy schedule I don't see how people think NE will only win 12 games. Baring injuries I think they'll win a minimum of 14 games. The weakest schedule and still one of the best offenses around will some great new defensive pieces. I see Miami winning 9 games because their schedule is also pretty favorable and I think the new coaching staff will help us avoid some of those 4th quarter loses.
You think the jets will win under 8 1/2 and Miami will win more than 7 1/2?
The only controversial pick I made was NE, most would have them over 12 wins.
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I'd take the Bills over. IF that offensive line can stay healthy, the Bills could do some damage. As for the Jets, I see Teblow starting about midway through the season, salvaging them at a 9-7 season. MIA? Could easily go 9-7 or 7-9. I tend to lean towards the 9-7, right now.
I think Miami, Buffalo, and Jets are all interchangeable. Each one of these teams could finish anywhere in the rankings besides first and it wouldnt surprise me. Not one of these teams stands out as being significantly better or worse than the rest. Although Sparano certainly isnt an upgrade for you guys. As I stated before, I give the edge to Buffalo because it is likely they will have the best defense in the AFCE
I think Buf is close to us but there is a gap btw us and Miami. Everything would have to break perfectly for Miami to contend for a playoff spot, I expect us and Buf to contend.
Clipse
mediocrity sucks
Jets contending for a playoff spot. Good stuff. Mark Sanchez is still your QB you know?
I do know, he was also QB for 6 playoff games the last 3 years.
anyway, I am done w/ work for the Holiday weekend. I will pikc this and many other topics up on Tuesday(unless for some odd reason I spend some time on the computer this weekend). Have a safe and fun Memorial Day weekend to all.
NYPhin24
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haha i see we have created a new spin, from "won 4 playoff games in 3 years", to now being the QB for 6 playoff games, again celebrating losses as your main reason for optimism, spin and dip out for the weekend before anyone realizes, nice move....
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Without looking at the schedules Id bet:
Saints (Over 10)
Panthers (Over 7.5)
Chiefs (under 8)
Falcons (Over 9)
Texans (Over 10)
Im positive youll hit the over on at least two of the 3 NFC South teams I listed. Losing Payton for a while hurts, but the Saints are still good for at least 11 wins. Chiefs are hot garbage. The Texans were the best team in the AFC last year before Schaub went down.
Saints (Over 10)
Panthers (Over 7.5)
Chiefs (under 8)
Falcons (Over 9)
Texans (Over 10)
Im positive youll hit the over on at least two of the 3 NFC South teams I listed. Losing Payton for a while hurts, but the Saints are still good for at least 11 wins. Chiefs are hot garbage. The Texans were the best team in the AFC last year before Schaub went down.
It was the same company responsible for these over/unders, Cantor Gaming. They are a new outfit that has stormed into Las Vegas the past few years, first establishing themselves at new casinos like M Resort and Cosmopolitan, and now spreading their greasy fingers to formerly independent or Leroy's sportsbooks like Venetian, Palms, Hard Rock, Tropicana.
Bright red and yellow lights on the betting boards, and loud screens in your face at every seat. I guess it's the Oregon uniform version of sports betting. Locals aren't impressed, primarily because Cantor doesn't offer anything unique or bold in terms of betting options, and they have a stuffy attitude at the counter.
Along with scared pathetic limits. $3000 on season win over/unders is a joke, considering they hold your money for half a year. Gene Mayday of Little Caesar's casino must be rolling in his grave in hysterics. Twenty years ago in his tiny strip mall casino, on the current lot of Paris, Mayday would put up over/unders with a stated limit of $100,000, but a note saying, "Ask if you need more." More meant anything you wanted to play. I used to watch celebrities and big shot gamblers walk into his back office with a briefcase. Bob Stupak made the famous million dollar bet on the '89 Super Bowl at Little Caesar's. Mayday called me aside and told me he had taken many wagers larger than that. Those bettors simply didn't seek the publicity, unlike eccentric Stupak, then owner of Stratosphere.
These days Cantor Gaming somehow earns loud headlines with a 3 dime limit. That's the way Las Vegas has trended...corporate cookie cutter mentality taking the place of aggressive former bookmakers.
Anyway, Cantor still has the weekly spreads with the Dolphins favored 7 or 8 times in individual games, and New England favored perhaps across the board. I haven't checked specifically. But as I described in the related thread here a month ago, you can't merely add up the number of times a team is favored and pronounce that is their over/under. The writer of the article on the Dolphin site made that mistake. Even if New England was favored in all 16 games by 7 points or more, does anyone actually believe the over/under is 16? You might get a little bit of under money. Like a non stop line at the window until you adjusted severely. Every level of favoritism carries related win likelihood. A 7 point favorite equates to a win expectancy of roughly -300 (3 in 4). That's why the best teams that are favored virtually every week still figure to lose 3-5 games, under typical distribution.
Granted, these days in an imbalanced league with moronic teams throwing it 40+ times with mush quarterbacks, it scares the heck out of me toward somebody matching '72 and unbeaten. Contrast used to defeat the powerhouses on any given you know what. Force the same style and somebody who simply does it better will trump you virtually every time.
In that month ago thread I estimated Miami's over/under would be 7 over or 7.5 under. This number seems a bit high, since the juice on the under 7.5 is only -120 (120 to win 100). I expected -130 or more. I certainly wouldn't be in a rush to bet the over and pay -110. (Nice 30 cent line, BTW, another wimpy practice that would make Mayday chuckle). The sharp bettors overwhelmingly look to bet under on these lines while the public forces the over. Any team with the threat of a rookie quarterback playing, and with the number 7 or higher, generally draws under money. I would expect the juice on under 7.5 to push to -130 or greater, and it's not inconceivable some joints could hang a 7 (juiced over) later on.
Cantor is hardly the ultimate authority. And "applied their model" is allowing far too much credit. I wish everyone could work in a sportsbook for a day or two. That's all it would take to rid the mythology of sophistication. Companies like that are life and death to make sure everybody shows up to work, and for the lines on the screen to match what is in the computer. These days sports power ratings are very good, and many widely available sources. That's the sportsbook edge. They basically average the power ratings and spit out an accurate appraisal, just like political polling experts like Mark Blumenthal average the reputable polls for a valid representation of the race.