What history shows Dolphins could get with slight trade down. And potential options | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

What history shows Dolphins could get with slight trade down. And potential options

TrinidadDolfan

TrinidadDolfan

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Having the third-overall pick in a draft with three highly-regarded quarterbacks gives the Dolphins delicious options.

Either keep the pick and add an elite offensive talent (receivers DeVonta Smith or Ja’Marr Chase or left tackle Penei Sewell) or trade down to acquire even more assets.

So what could Miami realistically snag in such a trade-down? We’ll get to that in a minute.


First, here’s one dynamic that could potentially help the Dolphins in the draft: Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank this week wouldn’t rule out making a change at quarterback, depending on what the team’s new coach wants to do. Matt Ryan, a four-time Pro Bowler, will turn 36 in May.

“Matt’s been a franchise leader for us,” Blank said. “A great quarterback. One of the leading quarterbacks in the last 13 years in the NFL. So I hope he’s going to be part of our plans going forward. But that will be a decision that I won’t make.”

If there’s any question about the Falcons possibly taking a quarterback at No. 4, that could be the impetus for a QB-needy team to try to jump the Falcons and attempt to obtain Miami’s pick at No. 3.

At least one of the top quarterbacks (Ohio State’s Justin Fields or BYU’s Zach Wilson) will be on the board at No. 3. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence almost assuredly will go first to Jacksonville.
 
That's some pretty good analysis. Really good, thanks.

I think we'll be beating this to death over the next three plus months but it really boils down to whether Miami is so high on one guy that they just have to have him at three (unlikely) and how far down they would be prepared to drop if there's a cluster of guys they can live with. Then, what's the comp they're being offered?

I'm going to guess it's almost certain they trade down because I think the comp just outweighs any love they will have for any one player because I don't believe they're in the QB market. That's just my opinion. They might like Smith better than any other WR for example, but if they know two other guys they have closely ranked are going to be there after a trade down, does the compensation outweigh that? Probably. If teams get excited about a QB available at #3 Miami can probably pluck another first rounder next year in a trade down and that would be hard to pass up.
 
Andyman said:
That's some pretty good analysis. Really good, thanks.

I think we'll be beating this to death over the next three plus months but it really boils down to whether Miami is so high on one guy that they just have to have him at three (unlikely) and how far down they would be prepared to drop if there's a cluster of guys they can live with. Then, what's the comp they're being offered?

I'm going to guess it's almost certain they trade down because I think the comp just outweighs any love they will have for any one player because I don't believe they're in the QB market. That's just my opinion. They might like Smith better than any other WR for example, but if they know two other guys they have closely ranked are going to be there after a trade down, does the compensation outweigh that? Probably. If teams get excited about a QB available at #3 Miami can probably pluck another first rounder next year in a trade down and that would be hard to pass up.
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That would be hard to pass up, but it would also be overpaying by a potential trade partner.

Stranger things have happened.
 
It comes down to whether we can fleece someone in the top 9 out of their 2022 #1. If I'm calling the shots for Miami I'm not trading away Penei Sewell for less than a 2022 #1 bc that's essentially what you're doing if you move down from 3. However their is a scenario where the NYJ takes Sewell at 2 in which case if that happened I would almost certainly trade down. 3 is just to high and to risky for a WR and I believe like many others here that Chase and Smith both will be top flight NFL WRs. I'm just really big on value especially in the draft and the value for a WR at 3 is not their. If you take a WR at 3 he better be a perennial 90 catch 1300/1400 yard 10 TD guy and to me those are just really high expectations.
 
Lots of work (which I appreciate) but the premise essentially indicts itself based on the complexity of achieving the desired outcome. Pretty obvious why trading down sounds like an off-the-shelf product but in reality -- not so simple. Odds are we make that pick. And that means QB if we're after best value.
 
BigNastyFish said:
Lots of work (which I appreciate) but the premise essentially indicts itself based on the complexity of achieving the desired outcome. Pretty obvious why trading down sounds like an off-the-shelf product but in reality -- not so simple. Odds are we make that pick. And that means QB if we're after best value.
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I think that Chris Greer will be receiving his fair share of phone calls for the pick. We will see if he gets a deal that he can't say no to, or get the start of several game changers that we need on this team.
 
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BigNastyFish said:
Lots of work (which I appreciate) but the premise essentially indicts itself based on the complexity of achieving the desired outcome. Pretty obvious why trading down sounds like an off-the-shelf product but in reality -- not so simple. Odds are we make that pick. And that means QB if we're after best value.
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Is it really the best value, though?

It could be, if that QB comes in and unseats Tua, but if he doesn't, I think it's like a new car. As soon as you drive it off the lot, it loses substantial value. There is no immediate value whatsoever if a guy you pick #3 is not playing.

I agree, though, that a trade down is easier said than done. This would appear to be a good year for that possibility, but ppl talking about 2 #1s+ to move only a few spots are not being realistic. I don't think we have the kind of leverage to pull off some blockbuster deal.

If we want the QB, which I don't think they go that way, they aren't trading at all. If we don't, teams will realize that, and offer lower comp.

Of course it's possible that it becomes a bidding war. I wouldn't count on it though.
 
Fin Fan in Cali said:
I think that Chris Greer will be receiving his fair share of phone calls for the pick. We will see if he gets a deal that he can't say no to, or get the start of several game changesr that we need on this team.
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He'll absolutely get calls! That is 100%+ guaranteed. But it's a value-driven proposition. And the wild card is...

we have no clue as to the internal evaluations and assessments that will drive our default position on the pick.

But ---------------------------------------- pretty amazing we're in the VERY LUCKY spot! So it's good no matter what.
 
Some deep analysis there. Top work fella. It will certainly be a game cat and mouse during this process.

It’s such a strong position to be in with many QB needy teams out there. I would welcome a trade down for additional picks but ideally would like to stay in the top 10 unless we get a real bonanza deal.

I have mocked our draft so many times using the PFN simulator and it’s only January lol. There is FA to come first which can re shape the draft for some teams.

Smith must have jumped up the boards after the season he had plus winning the Heisman but 3 seems high with Chase, Waddle and Bateman still there. Sewell is rated as the best tackle by far but do we kick him to RT if drafted?

It’s going to be another fascinating draft for the Dolphins that’s for sure.
 
I didn't know Hunt graded that well later in the season so I thank you for that. That would make me a little less inclined to think Sewell is the no-brainer at 3 if we have to pick there.

You always want to get a "difference maker" when you can and we should be able to at 3. That said, I think I'd gladly trade Chase/Smith/Waddle at 3 for Moore plus Bateman/Wallace in a trade down.
 
Mach2 said:
Is it really the best value, though?

It could be, if that QB comes in and unseats Tua, but if he doesn't, I think it's like a new car. As soon as you drive it off the lot, it loses substantial value. There is no immediate value whatsoever if a guy you pick #3 is not playing.

I agree, though, that a trade down is easier said than done. This would appear to be a good year for that possibility, but ppl talking about 2 #1s+ to move only a few spots are not being realistic. I don't think we have the kind of leverage to pull off some blockbuster deal.

If we want the QB, which I don't think they go that way, they aren't trading at all. If we don't, teams will realize that, and offer lower comp.

Of course it's possible that it becomes a bidding war. I wouldn't count on it though.
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You and I may differ on the value of the most critical position in football. That's OK. But if you make that pick -- you take a QB as long as there are high-performance prospects on the board. To conceptualize the premise (my take) you need to see ALL picks as potentials and NOT certainties. And the higher potentials are skewed by positional importance.

You can debate the importance of that having additional QB talent and developmental potential on the roster (see what Green Bay did last year as an example) but by position the metric isn't close. We all know the VALUE associated with "THE QB." That's almost written in stone.

Beyond that you can detail HOW that added value benefits your roster in a myriad of ways -- including competition, depth, insurance, future value (in terms of trades and picks) and so forth. QBs are game changers. OTs are not. WRs are not.

I mean for gawd sake we ALL know the excellent QB prospects belong at the TOP of the board. Now more than ever.

Counter positions are certainly viable. But for a lot of us --- they are NOT smarter.
 
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