Which new player will have the biggest impact on the team this coming season?

[fansinceGWilson]

Every offense of every kind will have open guys that don't get thrown to. The progression system basically guarantees that and it is the only viable system. You can't have a QB trying to check 5 different receivers before throwing on every play. He'll be sacked 10-15 times a game.

Teams don't really "sit" on those two guys. They play zone 85% of the time. If those guys run into a zone the defender with responsibility for that zone covers them. Guys responsible for other zones don't. If they did, it wouldn't be zone coverage and the integrity of the coverage would break down. That's why even though teams know the ball is likely going to Hill and Waddle they can't/don't really stop it. Even in those bad games late in the year they were regularly open, but passes fell incomplete due to bad throws and drops.

The problem with Miami's progression is TH/Waddle were almost always 1-2 in progression (slight exaggeration). Mcd knew that as well, but still didn't change progression. It's one thing to not have time to throw to an open guy, but completely different to know a guy is open but not target him.
I know you'll likely disagree and some may flame me for this. I know what the stats say about Miami facing zone, but, as the season progressed, it was COMMON to see TH with 2-3 defenders within 5 yds. Sometimes quadruple coverage. AND waddle double covered. TT had so little time he threw jump balls into triple coverage. But STILL they were 1-2 in progression. I can't see that as a standard NFL zone.
One game in particular the talking heads would show replays and point out defenders sitting in the timing windows.
I agree teams didn't play man often and I don't blame them. But it's hard to have a receiver triple covered in zone.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

There will be other options, just as there were last year and in 2022. What people complain about with the Other Receivers is the lack of big bulk numbers, not a low efficiency or success rate. And that lack of bulk numbers for WRs 3-5 will likely continue because there aren't many targets available to them. The Other Receivers produced pretty well on a per target basis the last two years. Hopefully that will continue with the new group in 2024.

Here we agree. My argument is making the 3rd WR the 1st target more often will open more opportunities for TH/waddle to inflict pain. Targeting the TE more will force LBs to play closer. I don't want to move away from TH/waddle as primary targets, but force the D to cover all receivers.

 

[Mach2]

The problem with Miami's progression is TH/Waddle were almost always 1-2 in progression (slight exaggeration). Mcd knew that as well, but still didn't change progression. It's one thing to not have time to throw to an open guy, but completely different to know a guy is open but not target him.
I know you'll likely disagree and some may flame me for this. I know what the stats say about Miami facing zone, but, as the season progressed, it was COMMON to see TH with 2-3 defenders within 5 yds. Sometimes quadruple coverage. AND waddle double covered. TT had so little time he threw jump balls into triple coverage. But STILL they were 1-2 in progression. I can't see that as a standard NFL zone.
One game in particular the talking heads would show replays and point out defenders sitting in the timing windows.
I agree teams didn't play man often and I don't blame them. But it's hard to have a receiver triple covered in zone.

I have to believe that's more on Tua in making his pre snap reads, rather than McD.

 

[Mach2]

Here we agree. My argument is making the 3rd WR the 1st target more often will open more opportunities for TH/waddle to inflict pain. Targeting the TE more will force LBs to play closer. I don't want to move away from TH/waddle as primary targets, but force the D to cover all receivers.

Are you under the impression that progressions are predetermined without regard to defensive alignment?

If they are, it's a piss poor system, IMO.

 

[MrClean]

The real tough one that keeps me up at night is Storm Duck.

Storm seems more natural but wouldn't want to lose out on things like "Rogers is hit by Chop and throws up a duck that is picked off by Duck and returned for a pick six".

People seem to be disproportionately fixated on Duck due to his name. I'm not sure he is any better a prospect than the UDFA DBs with boring names like Johnson, Perry, and Colbert. We shall see.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

I have to believe that's more on Tua in making his pre snap reads, rather than McD.

I'm not absolving TT. At times he seems to become an automaton. Call play. Run play. OTOH, the OC, knowing the defense scheme, has control over the play call and progression. If the QB is struggling, help him out.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Are you under the impression that progressions are predetermined without regard to defensive alignment?

If they are, it's a piss poor system, IMO.

Not at all although I do think it's a poor system. They are initially determined by the play call, but should change based on D scheme/alignment. I do think it's harder on the QB when he gets to LOS with <10sec on the clock. I've said in other posts TT is very good at going through progressions, but seemed to struggle with presnap reads as his time to throw shrunk. From my perspective, calling a play with #3 receiver as #1 in progression is standard in the NFL - often called 'take what the D gives.' The OL needs to give TT more time, TT needs more help in presnap reads, and Mcd needs to realize 1/2 receivers doesn't mean they're always 1/2 in progression. we've all seen games where the #3 receiver dominated the D. That's not always by the QB going through progressions.

 

[Danny]

All I want is for the offense not to be so obvious ......we have plenty of weapons but they don’t mean anything if we don’t use them.

 

[zullo1]

There is/will be a limited number of targets available. Most will go to Tyreek and Waddle. Last year, Tyreek and Waddle got about half of them and that was with Waddle missing 3 games and Tyreek missing one. There is no good reason to intentionally throw to them less or to relegate them more to 3rd or 4th option. There will always be about 40% of targets that go to miscellaneous receivers -- dump offs to backs, 3rd options when Tyreek/Waddle aren't on the field, etc. There just won't be many targets for Smith and OBJ and if one of them does get a decent number of them the other won't.

Beside the obvious point that basing your argument on a single game in negative 20 degree weather is just ridiculous, I don't understand why you are using as an example the one game where the Dolphins did spread the targets around more (and unsuccessfully) to seemingly make the argument that they should keep trying to do that more. Nobody's passing game was going to be super successful that day, including Mahomes', but throwing to Tyreek and Waddle was still more productive than throwing to the others. The Dolphins averaged 7.2 ypt when targeting Tyreek and Waddle in that game, but only 4.1 ypt when targeting others.

TEs are rarely "great weapons." Tyreek/Waddle have been averaging 9.8-11.5 yards per targets the past two seasons. Only a few of the all-time elite TEs have been there on a significant number of targets. The TE can be a good weapon but will rarely be a great one. I don't think we'll see a major revamp of the offense to accommodate Jonnu Smith. He's largely a dump-off guy, as evidenced by his career ADOT of about 5.5 yards. If Tyreek and Waddle are not open I think he will be in the mix with WR3 for the 3rd option on dump-offs, but I don't think we'll see him as a 1/2 option very often and Tyreek/Waddle get open so well that the Dolphins don't throw to the 3rd option all that much.

TE's are rarely great weapons? I totally disagree with that premise. Of course he wont be a 1/2 option often, but I see no reason why TE can't get 3-5 catches per game and move the sticks in crucial situations and get some TD's in Red zone. My point was they need another option. The Chiefs pretty convincingly blanketed Hill and Waddle. Fins had no answer. I simply picked that game as it was the most important.

 

[Fineas]

The problem with Miami's progression is TH/Waddle were almost always 1-2 in progression (slight exaggeration). Mcd knew that as well, but still didn't change progression. It's one thing to not have time to throw to an open guy, but completely different to know a guy is open but not target him.
I know you'll likely disagree and some may flame me for this. I know what the stats say about Miami facing zone, but, as the season progressed, it was COMMON to see TH with 2-3 defenders within 5 yds. Sometimes quadruple coverage. AND waddle double covered. TT had so little time he threw jump balls into triple coverage. But STILL they were 1-2 in progression. I can't see that as a standard NFL zone.
One game in particular the talking heads would show replays and point out defenders sitting in the timing windows.
I agree teams didn't play man often and I don't blame them. But it's hard to have a receiver triple covered in zone.

Having Hill and Waddle as 1 and 2 was not a problem at all. The Dolphins led the league in passing yards and had one of the highest ratings too.

Not sure what you are talking about as examples where Tua knew a guy was open but didn't target him.

It was not COMMON to see Hill with 2-3 defenders within 5 yards or triple coverage. I remember one example of double man coverage and he still got open. But that was very, very rare. Tyreek was targeted in man coverage only 6 times over the final 3 games (including the WC game) and that's any man coverage and not all with more than one man on him. There was never quadruple coverage, which doesn't really even exist in the wild. The one play that I saw with 2-3 was that bizarre play against the Chiefs where they had a 2-man rush and 1 LB, which I don't think I have ever seen before.

Tua did not throw many jump balls into triple coverage, if any. You are just making stuff up.

Yes, it is hard (nee impossible) to have a guy triple coveraged in zone. It didn't happen. It won't happen. Which is part of the reason why your talk of so much triple coverage is nonsense.

 

[CANDolphan]

Everything said seems to indicate Mo Kamara will be more of an immediate impact than Chop but that could be based on the logic of simply betting on the guy who produced versus the guy who has insane potential.

 

[Fineas]

Here we agree. My argument is making the 3rd WR the 1st target more often will open more opportunities for TH/waddle to inflict pain. Targeting the TE more will force LBs to play closer. I don't want to move away from TH/waddle as primary targets, but force the D to cover all receivers.

It doesn't though. In zone coverage, which defenses play 85-90% of the time against the Dolphins, defenders cover territory and don't change that terrioroty based on the numbers on the WRs' jerseys or who got more targets to that point. Making a lesser receiver the target more often doesn't free up anything for anyone, in zone coverage or otherwise. LBs won't play closer -- they will play the territory that they are supposed to play based on the zone coverage call. When the TE enters the defender's zone the defender will cover him regardless of the name or number on his jersey and regardless of whether he has been targeted previously. The same is true when Hill or Waddle enter the zone.

Every defense covers every receiver, unless there is a coverage mistake. No DC designs coverages to leave any NFL WR, TE or RB uncovered.

 

[Fineas]

TE's are rarely great weapons? I totally disagree with that premise. Of course he wont be a 1/2 option often, but I see no reason why TE can't get 3-5 catches per game and move the sticks in crucial situations and get some TD's in Red zone. My point was they need another option. The Chiefs pretty convincingly blanketed Hill and Waddle. Fins had no answer. I simply picked that game as it was the most important.

TE's can get 3-5 catches, but unless it is an elite TE the targets needed to make that happen will gain fewer yards than if those passes were thrown to Hill or Waddle. I'm not sure why you want to take targets away from Hill or Waddle. And there aren't many others to take them from. Sure, you could take them from the targets that went to Cedrick Wilson last year but that's only 2.24 targets per game and the Dolphins gained 7.8 yards per target on those so giving them to Jonnu Smith, who has a career ypt of 7.5 ypt won't necessarily bear an upgrade. Wilson ran very different kinds of routes than Smith runs, so those Wilson routes are more likely to go to OBJ. You could give the Smythe/Hill targets to Smith, but that's only 3 targets per game even if you gave Smith all of them (which isn't likely) and Smythe/Hill averaged 8 yards per target, which h is also better than Smith's career average. If Smith were to average 8.3 ypt like he did last year, that would have resulted in an extra 15.6 yards for the season, or a little under a yard a game.

 

[zullo1]

TE's can get 3-5 catches, but unless it is an elite TE the targets needed to make that happen will gain fewer yards than if those passes were thrown to Hill or Waddle. I'm not sure why you want to take targets away from Hill or Waddle. And there aren't many others to take them from. Sure, you could take them from the targets that went to Cedrick Wilson last year but that's only 2.24 targets per game and the Dolphins gained 7.8 yards per target on those so giving them to Jonnu Smith, who has a career ypt of 7.5 ypt won't necessarily bear an upgrade. Wilson ran very different kinds of routes than Smith runs, so those Wilson routes are more likely to go to OBJ. You could give the Smythe/Hill targets to Smith, but that's only 3 targets per game even if you gave Smith all of them (which isn't likely) and Smythe/Hill averaged 8 yards per target, which h is also better than Smith's career average. If Smith were to average 8.3 ypt like he did last year, that would have resulted in an extra 15.6 yards for the season, or a little under a yard a game.

I won't belabor the point, but when 1 and 2 are covered there must be another viable option. Jonnu caught 50 last year with over 11 yds/catch. He should be able to better that w/the Fins. If you only throw to Hill and Waddle it becomes quite predictable and good teams will adjust as we saw in playoffs.

 

[JamesWsenior]

People seem to be disproportionately fixated on Duck due to his name. I'm not sure he is any better a prospect than the UDFA DBs with boring names like Johnson, Perry, and Colbert. We shall see.

Fixated is a bit strong but it does make for light reading amongst 50 pages of back and forth on Tua's contract, regurgitation of "we should have drafted a guard" or my favorite "who would have you drafted type topics" over and over and over again - usually by the same 2-3 topic creators.

Carry on