Wins above Replacement | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Wins above Replacement

Foo27

☠️ Banned ☠️
Joined
Nov 25, 2015
Messages
193
Reaction score
1
I believe this should be our measurement for deciding who is our first pick in the draft Maybe our second and third as well.

For the sake of argument i'm throwing out the idea of taking a T at #8 to play guard. Partly because the idea doesn't offer maximum value unless Laremie Tunsil is there which he most certainly will not.

The other guy who I also like and think will be a great pro is Jaylon Smith. Not on my board because imo he won't play or offer much impact after suffering a serious knee injury this month.

My focus is on a few defenders who can raise the level of the Miami defense which was slow, undersized and lacked playmakers at every level except DL although that could change if OV leaves.

Here's how i handicap the selection process


CB Brice McCain- small, not physical spent the season getting burned on the boundary. This wasn't a Terrell Buckley situation where you say to yourself "well, at least he makes some plays that matter" McCain didn't and needs to be replaced

Replacement(s) Vernon Hargreaves or Mackensie Alexander- both are sub 6' but are bigger, faster and have more playmaking ability than McCain who should be cut. Jamar Taylor's lack of performance also makes this pos. a critical need.

WAR - 2.5


MLB- Kelvin Sheppard Would be a nice backup and a guy you want on your team but he make most of his tackles several yards down the field. Isn't instinctive and can't cover. A sideline to sideline kid with some leadership and thumb would really help this entire defense

Replacement- Alabama LB Reggie Ragland- His versatility and experience help and I don't buy the bad Tennessee game or supposed lack of athleticism. He's a pro and has been one for 2 years. Learned from the best and had a lot to offer before he even got to Saban and Kirby Smart's door.

WAR - 2

OLB- Koa Misi and Jelani Jenkins - Not many talk about all the missed games due to injury and Misi's overinflated salary and lack of big plays but they should. In Misi's defense he's been asked to play all over the field in a 3-4 and a 4-3 and has been a good, not great, player at most of them. But he's not as young or as cheap as Jenkins is so I could see a scenario in which Misi is released

Replacement UCLA OLB Myles Jack Is coming off injury but would offer more versatility and playmaking than Misi

WAR- 1

DE Olivier Vernon I hope he doesn't go. He's a legit pass rusher and those are hard to find. I know he commits dumb PF's but I'm OK with those when he runs over good tackles like Tryon Smith. Have a bad feeling team won't be able to keep him which makes DE a glaring hole.

Replacement- Clemson DE Shaq Lawson- Isn't the pass rusher OV is but is a great all around DE who anchors a line and would form a nice nucleus with J Phillips. This scenario is least appealing because you created a need by not re-signing an emerging player but that's life in the NFL especially when you blew the cap up the year before.

War - -1

FS Michael Thomas/Walt Aikens Both were awful, both blew many coverages but Aikens was far worse. Sometimes good special teamers get it and become good starters but I'm not holding my breath on him. I think the team finds a cheap veteran replacement but imo there's no Brock Marion coming through the door. I don't think there's a first round caliber free safety worth taking and I don't know about the quality of second and third round safeties so if someone could help here…………..

WAR- TBD But it would be nice to find a young FS who understands angles, can tackle and make a play once in awhile
 
Free Safety? Jalen Ramsey all the way, we'll be lucky if he's available at #8. I think he goes to the Ravens. I think we'll end up with Jack or Alexander.
 
Free Safety? Jalen Ramsey all the way, we'll be lucky if he's available at #8. I think he goes to the Ravens. I think we'll end up with Jack or Alexander.

Agreed. He'd be great at FS or CB but Im taking Ramsey, Bosa and Tunsil out of consideration as I think they'll all be long gone
 
I'm just not feeling a CB at 8.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I'm just not feeling a CB at 8.

may we ask why not?


The current corners are awful and this is a passing league

Because I don't think Hardgrave or Alexander is as good as Quinten Rollins who was selected at the end of round 2 last year. Neither can carry Byron Jones jock strap, and he was a late first round pick. NO VALUE.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Because I don't think Hardgrave or Alexander is as good as Quinten Rollins who was selected at the end of round 2 last year. Neither can carry Byron Jones jock strap, and he was a late first round pick. NO VALUE.

You're talking about two kids who produced in far better conferences than the ones that Rollins and Jones played in. Both Jones and Rollins were inexperienced and underproductive coming out of college compared to the SEC and ACC corners. Rollins was a far better point guard than CB in college.

who would you take at #8?
 
Because I don't think Hardgrave or Alexander is as good as Quinten Rollins who was selected at the end of round 2 last year. Neither can carry Byron Jones jock strap, and he was a late first round pick. NO VALUE.

You're talking about two kids who produced in far better conferences than the ones that Rollins and Jones played in. Both Jones and Rollins were inexperienced and underproductive coming out of college compared to the SEC and ACC corners. Rollins was a far better point guard than CB in college.

who would you take at #8?

Jack, Billings, Robinson or trade back. I'm assuming Ramsey is gone. You could not be more wrong about Rollins college career.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jack, Billings, Robinson or trade back. I'm assuming Ramsey is gone. You could not be more wrong about Rollins college career.


Wow, I can see our Path to the Draft's gonna be a rocky one. Rollins played one year of corner back at Miami of Ohio. how exactly did that prepare him as well as three years in the SEC and ACC?

Billings is a DT. If Miami took him, I think there'd be a riot. Not sure who Robinson is.
 
I sure wouldn't riot if we took a DL at 8, we were one of the last ranked rushing defenses in the league last year. With the top ILB prospect out with a serious injury, Jack may not even be there when we pick, and outside of Norman look who the Panthers have at corner (Finnegan and another random) that's getting them to the Superbowl. It all starts in the front seven, I value pressure over coverage, and the ability to stop the run and make a team one dimensional. We need to resign OV, restructure Wake, and draft a high potential stud to play next to Suh; linebacker and corner/fs can be drafted later in the rounds or through FA IMO. So with that my board would be Kniemdche, Robinson, Ogbah, Billings.
 
I sure wouldn't riot if we took a DL at 8, we were one of the last ranked rushing defenses in the league last year. With the top ILB prospect out with a serious injury, Jack may not even be there when we pick, and outside of Norman look who the Panthers have at corner (Finnegan and another random) that's getting them to the Superbowl. It all starts in the front seven, I value pressure over coverage, and the ability to stop the run and make a team one dimensional. We need to resign OV, restructure Wake, and draft a high potential stud to play next to Suh; linebacker and corner/fs can be drafted later in the rounds or through FA IMO. So with that my board would be Kniemdche, Robinson, Ogbah, Billings.

With Suh, second rounder phillips and Earl Mitchell, its going to be hard to justify taking Billings or Robison, especially if OV leaves.

Buckner and Lawson, sure, but not someone who is a pure DT
 
With Suh, second rounder phillips and Earl Mitchell, its going to be hard to justify taking Billings or Robison, especially if OV leaves.

Buckner and Lawson, sure, but not someone who is a pure DT

I don't think Earl Mitchell should factor in to any decisions. He's horrible.
 
I don't think Earl Mitchell should factor in to any decisions. He's horrible.

Thank you. He's also going to be cut IMHO.

I cannot lie. Both Billings and Robinson intrigue me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Back
Top Bottom