Would these numbers save AJ?

[DrAstroZoom]

I posted the following information on the main board under a "Predict A.J.'s 2005 numbers" thread, but I wanted to continue the discussion here:

I did a somewhat scientific analysis, and came up with these numbers:

15 TDs, 13 INTs, 58.1% completion, 2832 yards

This assumes a 16-game season. I calculated based on the improvement Troy Aikman showed from 1992 to 1993 -- the year Hudson Houck replaced Tony Wise as Dallas's O-line coach.

I applied the same improvement factors to AJ's 2004 season and voila!

Here's the question: would these numbers bring AJ back in 2006?

 

[NLude33]

Yes, I sure think so. Those are solid numbers if we have a top 5-7 running game. If we are still last in the league in rushing, then those numbers would really hard to swallow, because it would mean very little offensive production.

 

[DrAstroZoom]

Yes, I sure think so. Those are solid numbers if we have a top 5-7 running game. If we are still last in the league in rushing, then those numbers would really hard to swallow, because it would mean very little offensive production.

I think top seven in rushing is doable.

 

[A Wing Pilot]

I believe so but I'd have to see how many TD'sw we get on the gound. 17 TD's is barely 1 a game so we're gonna need 1-3 tds on the gorund plus kicking, or the best defense ever to play the game to win like that. I would be very happy to see those numbers. what QB ranking does that put him in 60-75?

 

[DrAstroZoom]

I don't know enough about the QB rating formula to calculate it, but I'm guessing we're talking in the 75 to 80 range.

 

[Wildbill3]

that could get AJ another year to try things, heck with those numbers and the ground game being top 15, we'll be contenders for making the playoffs, also as long as AJ cuts the Pick6's down to one or two, then yeah, he'll get another year.

 

[GRT8]

THEY seem decent, but alot will depend on chemistry and clutch play. If 6 of those INT's go for six the other way....he is done. I would assume he gets another year off those stats though.

 

[DrAstroZoom]

that could get AJ another year to try things, heck with those numbers and the ground game being top 15, we'll be contenders for making the playoffs, also as long as AJ cuts the Pick6's down to one or two, then yeah, he'll get another year.

 

[inFINSible]

Absolutely, based on those numbers alone, I'd bring him back.

I'd sure like to see how those INTs came about, how many were exceptionally painful or how many were meaningless in the grand scheme of things. If a lot of those INTs come at the beginning of the year and dwindle as the year goes by, that would be a great thing. If he threw more towards the end of the year and in pressure games and situations, that would paint those numbers in a much darker tone.

 

[phunwin]

Absolutely, based on those numbers alone, I'd bring him back.

I'd sure like to see how those INTs came about, how many were exceptionally painful or how many were meaningless in the grand scheme of things. If a lot of those INTs come at the beginning of the year and dwindle as the year goes by, that would be a great thing. If he threw more towards the end of the year and in pressure games and situations, that would paint those numbers in a much darker tone.

My thoughts exactly. Those numbers, taken by themselves, would be enough to buy AJ another year, in my book, especially if he showed more improvement as the year went on.

However, "Feeley-Hater" as I've been branded, I'd note that Feeley is *MUCH* less likely to make the same improvement Troy Aikman did.

 

[Disnardo]

I don't know enough about the QB rating formula to calculate it, but I'm guessing we're talking in the 75 to 80 range.

The main numbers needed for QBR calculation is Attempts, Completion, Total Yards, TDs, and INTs. The attempts are important with Total Yards due to YPA, which can change your QBR up or down.

His QBR for those numbers posted adding the Attempts (320 @ 20 per game) is= 86.1%

His QBR for those numbers posted changin the Attempts (385 @ 24 per game) is= 80.1%

His QBR for those numbers posted changing the Attempts (448 @ 28 per game) is= 75.8%

This will give you some perspective... :)


Also guys follow that link and fill in the numbers and click on the submit button to give you QBRs'

Link to QBR Calculator

 

[inFINSible]

My thoughts exactly. Those numbers, taken by themselves, would be enough to buy AJ another year, in my book, especially if he showed more improvement as the year went on.

However, "Feeley-Hater" as I've been branded, I'd note that Feeley is *MUCH* less likely to make the same improvement Troy Aikman did.

I don't know about that. AJ will have much better teachers working with him.

One other thing, I almost want to expect more TDs in Linehan's system. I'm think low 20's shouldn't be out of the question. We're going to have a great group of experienced receivers, including TE Randy McMichael, it would seem like a real waste of talent to get only 15 TDs out of them.

 

[phunwin]

I don't know about that. AJ will have much better teachers working with him.

One other thing, I almost want to expect more TDs in Linehan's system. I'm think low 20's shouldn't be out of the question. We're going to have a great group of experienced receivers, including TE Randy McMichael, it would seem like a real waste of talent to get only 15 TDs out of them.

I'm not concerned about the teachers, I'm concerned about the student.

Troy Aikman will (probably) be in the Hall of Fame one day. The Cowboys surrounded him with good coaches very early in his career, which certainly helped that. I believe the jump Dr. Zoom is talking about is from his 1st to 2nd year (or possibly 2nd to 3rd). Either way, since Aikman was the #1 pick in the draft, it seems likely that he was due for serious improvement anyway, because of his talent. In this case, we're talking about a similar jump for a guy going from his 4th to his 5th year (where improvement is less likely), at the age of 28, in a player who doesn't have anywhere near the talent, ability or smarts that Aikman did. So, I think it's a questionable comparison.

 

[inFINSible]

I'm not concerned about the teachers, I'm concerned about the student.

Troy Aikman will (probably) be in the Hall of Fame one day. The Cowboys surrounded him with good coaches very early in his career, which certainly helped that. I believe the jump Dr. Zoom is talking about is from his 1st to 2nd year (or possibly 2nd to 3rd). Either way, since Aikman was the #1 pick in the draft, it seems likely that he was due for serious improvement anyway, because of his talent. In this case, we're talking about a similar jump for a guy going from his 4th to his 5th year (where improvement is less likely), at the age of 28, in a player who doesn't have anywhere near the talent, ability or smarts that Aikman did. So, I think it's a questionable comparison.

We're talking about two players, regardless of years played, having almost identical number of games played at the pro level. Feeley is due to make the same improvements as almost any other second year player due to his overall lack of playing time in the last 5 years.

Not having anywhere near the talent ability or smarts that Aikman did is too subjective of a statement to even address but, I'll try...:)..... Talent and ability being relatively the same thing, it could be argued that no one even knows what Feeley is capable of. I know that I have seen him make throws that only the best QBs in the league can make so, the talent and ability is obviously above average. I haven't got a clue how smart he is after watching him struggle last year on a team led by incompetance from the top. I know that he seemed to improve somewhat after Bates took over and even stopped throwing INTs in the last two games he started so, I have to wonder if saying he doesn't have the smarts for the position is accurate at all.

I doubt anyone will ever compare Feeley to Aikman in any serious way but, it could still happen. And as for these measly numbers, I actually hope and almost expect, better.

 

[xiidaen]

I think those numbers are borderline, and it comes down to how he manages the offense. Are those touchdowns based more on his throws or the WR plays? (I'm reminded of a WR Screen thrown by lucas to McKnight that went for about 50 yards... I think McKnight gets more credit for that one)

If he's making smart throws and taking advantage of the opportunities this might work.

I think the real question will be who can we get next year. If Brees plays out of his mind again, would you rather have him? If a top college QB is sitting in our draft slot, what do you do then?

I don't think those numbers are good enough to lock him in to the position, but they might keep him in the competition. I hope that this offense (and Feeley) is capable of better.