It is that time again!!!! Football is back! So what the hell. I shall punch out a QUICK season preview.
The Phins finish last season was a disappointment to say the least. After a huge win at home vs. the Patriots to bring the team to 8-6 and put them in the driver's seat for a playoff spot, the offense went into shut down mode against two teams that just were not very good, and managed to miss the playoffs at 8-8. Despite an outstanding effort on defense last season that saw the team finish 8th in the league in points allowed, the offense continued to score between 16-23 points like clockwork. Going into this season the offense remains the biggest question mark and the chances of the team making the playoffs rests largely on the improvement or lack of improvement of the offense.
So lets examine what the Phins have at each unit and what we might expect from each of them respectively........
DB - This is an interesting group. Last season, the unit was fairly strong. However, this year a few changes have been made and it is uncertain if the group will improve upon last year's efforts.
The Phins brought in Finnegan as a FA to start at CB. The optimists expect Finnegan to return to the form that made him a great player in Tennessee a couple of seasons ago. This might be a case of "happy adjusting" as Awsi would call it. Finnegan's play in St Louis was less than spectacular. I had no issues with signing him, but I do wonder if it was wise to count on him as a starter. If he had been signed as a 3rd guy and we wind up getting the old Finnegan, then great. The CB's would be an incredible group. But, if we count on him as a starter and he plays the way he did in St. Louis, this group is not going to be a positive the way it was last season.
We know Grimes is a very good player and it is safe to expect him to continue being a top CB. Finnegan's performance along with whether or not 2nd year players Taylor and Davis emerge will tell the tale on the back end of the Phins D.
At safety, the Phins signed long time vet Louis Delmas. Delmas has battled injury but, played well for the most part when healthy. So long as he is in the lineup, he should be an upgrade for the Phins. Jones had a disappointing season for the Phins last year after signing a big contract. The Phins need him to bring his level of play back to what it was in 2012. Jones will be serving a 4 game suspension to start the season. In the meantime, expect Jimmy Wilson to fill in and play poorly in non red zone situations.
LB - This is the weak spot of the Phins D. Phillip Wheeler and Ellerbe badly need haircuts, ability, and motivation. Wheeler was one of the worst LBs in the league last season and unless he finds motivation to earn the money that is waiting for him on the 3rd year of his contract, he will be cut in the offseason. Koa Misi will be playing out of position in the middle since Ellerbe could not handle that responsibility last year. If the DL does not hold strong against the run, the Phins could get gashed all year by the oppositions rushing attack. The Phins best hopes at LB are that Milli Vanilli can find some desire to earn a big paycheck and avoid being cut, thus improving their play last season. If not, there are some young LBs waiting who might do a good job if given the opportunity.
DL - Once again, this unit is the strength of the defense. The only major concern would be that if losing Soliai in FA leads to more responsibility being thrown at the LB unit to stop the run. Starks and Wake are as good as anyone in the league at their respective positions. Vernon and Odrick are very solid. I have no idea what to expect from Earl Mitchell, who is taking the place of Soliai inside. Fede and Johnson look like promising rookies to add to a very talented group at DL. I am not counting on Dion Jordan for anything at this point.
All in all, I expect the defense to be pretty good. Whether or not they can match last years performance remains to be seen. If this group falls off, the Phins could be in BIG trouble this year unless the offense takes a huge step forward.
WR - This is an outstanding group 1-5. Outstanding. While the Phins do not have a true superstar in this group, each and every one of them are very capable NFL players. IMHO, this is really the best kind of group to have in the modern era NFL. If you have one big time player and some average guys, an injury can sink you. But, when you have guys who are talented enough to beat 2nd, 3rd, and 4th DBs with regularity, it gives a QB one or two good options on every play. The depth also allows a team to sustain and injury or two and still be plenty competent at the position.
TE - Clay is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. The modern NFL is moving away from the traditional grind it out, blocking style TE who can catch a redzone pass or two. It has become more and more about having 1, or preferably 2 TEs who can threaten the seems from any spot on the field. If Gator Hoskins develops into a player as good as Clay, the Phins will have some serious weapons at TE.
RB - Moreno should give the Phins at least one true NFL RB. He can block, catch, and run when he gets some decent lanes. I have no idea why Miller holds a roster spot, but I have high hopes for Damien Williams. If one of the rookies can emerge, the Phins might have a good group here.
OL - Huge question mark. The Phins now have a top notch LT. Colledge should be adequate at one spot, likewise Satele until Pouncey returns. The right side is the big question mark. If James can do the job at RT, this group should be pretty good. I am really concerned about Shelley Smith being able to pass block at RG, but if James can hold down the RT spot, this should not be a huge issue once Pouncey returns. I am much more concerned about whether or not this group can open some running lanes for Moreno and Co. than their pass blocking. If the Phins can develop a decent rushing game this season, the pass blocking should improve based off the ability to run. Last season, the Phins could not have run the ball effectively against the U.
Finally QB - Tannehill should still throw those out routes between 7-15 yards real well. He does that nicely. He also seems to have a knack for connecting in the middle for the short gains to guys like Gibson, or hitting guys who get wide open on little short things set up by play design. Outside of that, I just do not see that much else that Tannehill does well. I still expect him to hold the ball, take sacks, fumble here and there, miss Mike Wallace when he is wide open deep, and throw the occasional INT when trying to attack the middle beyond 10 yards.
The problem with Tannehill is that he simply does not threaten the entire field. The defenses know this at this point. Everyone in the league knows it. The Phins have serious trouble scoring points with Tannehill at QB and that is the major reason why. Tannehill is simply extremely limited as a QB and this allows defenses to know where they can and can not be hurt by Tannehill. Having said that, if the Phins can actually develop a rushing attack and Philbin actually grow a brain and use it, the Phins could win games with Tannehill at QB so long as the defense remains as solid as they did last season. Should the defense take a step back, this could be 2011 all over again. It does however appear as though the Phins might allow Tannehill to make more positive gains with his legs this season as they should. A limited QB like that needs to utilize his legs to move the chains when he can.
Now, if the Phins would be willing to start Matt Moore, the chances of scoring points will be enhanced greatly. While Moore does not do many things great, he is an outstanding leader and throws a beautiful deep ball. While Moore can have the occasional disaster play, he puts the defense on their heals because he can attack the entire field. He can and will attack deep to all areas of the field. This threat opens up so much for the Phins offense. Both the WRs and RBs have much better opportunities to catch the ball in space and make plays. The rushing lanes are also much better because of Moore's ability to threaten the entire field. The offense uses the entire playing surface and the defense must defend it all when Moore is under center. While Moore does not have an A+ 7-15 yard stop pattern throw like Tannehill, he gives the team a much greater opportunity to score points and thus, a much better opportunity to win.
Coaching - Blah. I am afraid Philbin might be way in over his head as a HC. If he grows a brain and starts Matt Moore before we get to 4 losses with and at least 8 games left to play, we might be able to do something exciting this season.
Summary - The season is going to come down to whether or not this defense plays as well as last year. If it does, it is certainly possible the Phins find 10 wins, even with Tannehill in at QB and the Phins having scoring issues. Of course there is the chance that Tannehill takes it to the next level and shows himself to be a good QB who can put points on the board. We are all hoping that happens, I am just not as optimistic about it as the fans on this board. I have seen nothing in 31 games that suggests to me that Tannehill is going to be a guy that can hit the longer passes with enough consistency to make the opposing defense respect it, but that certainly does not mean it can't happen.
Record predicion - 7-9. I will play it somewhere in the middle. I think the high side is 10 wins and the low side is a complete disaster and a repeat of 2011. It really is tough to predict a record for this team. So much depends on the QB. I really believe this team has a ton of talent overall and if they just got good QB play they could compete for the whole thing if the defense were also as good as last season.
Around the league predicions
AFC
East - Patriots
North - Ravens
South - Colts
West - Broncos
WCs - Chargers, Bengals
NFC
East - Eagles
North - Packers
South - Falcons
West - Rams
WCs - Seahawks, Bears
AFC Championship
Patriots over Colts
NFC Championship
Falcons over Packers
Super Bowl
Falcons over Patriots
The Phins finish last season was a disappointment to say the least. After a huge win at home vs. the Patriots to bring the team to 8-6 and put them in the driver's seat for a playoff spot, the offense went into shut down mode against two teams that just were not very good, and managed to miss the playoffs at 8-8. Despite an outstanding effort on defense last season that saw the team finish 8th in the league in points allowed, the offense continued to score between 16-23 points like clockwork. Going into this season the offense remains the biggest question mark and the chances of the team making the playoffs rests largely on the improvement or lack of improvement of the offense.
So lets examine what the Phins have at each unit and what we might expect from each of them respectively........
DB - This is an interesting group. Last season, the unit was fairly strong. However, this year a few changes have been made and it is uncertain if the group will improve upon last year's efforts.
The Phins brought in Finnegan as a FA to start at CB. The optimists expect Finnegan to return to the form that made him a great player in Tennessee a couple of seasons ago. This might be a case of "happy adjusting" as Awsi would call it. Finnegan's play in St Louis was less than spectacular. I had no issues with signing him, but I do wonder if it was wise to count on him as a starter. If he had been signed as a 3rd guy and we wind up getting the old Finnegan, then great. The CB's would be an incredible group. But, if we count on him as a starter and he plays the way he did in St. Louis, this group is not going to be a positive the way it was last season.
We know Grimes is a very good player and it is safe to expect him to continue being a top CB. Finnegan's performance along with whether or not 2nd year players Taylor and Davis emerge will tell the tale on the back end of the Phins D.
At safety, the Phins signed long time vet Louis Delmas. Delmas has battled injury but, played well for the most part when healthy. So long as he is in the lineup, he should be an upgrade for the Phins. Jones had a disappointing season for the Phins last year after signing a big contract. The Phins need him to bring his level of play back to what it was in 2012. Jones will be serving a 4 game suspension to start the season. In the meantime, expect Jimmy Wilson to fill in and play poorly in non red zone situations.
LB - This is the weak spot of the Phins D. Phillip Wheeler and Ellerbe badly need haircuts, ability, and motivation. Wheeler was one of the worst LBs in the league last season and unless he finds motivation to earn the money that is waiting for him on the 3rd year of his contract, he will be cut in the offseason. Koa Misi will be playing out of position in the middle since Ellerbe could not handle that responsibility last year. If the DL does not hold strong against the run, the Phins could get gashed all year by the oppositions rushing attack. The Phins best hopes at LB are that Milli Vanilli can find some desire to earn a big paycheck and avoid being cut, thus improving their play last season. If not, there are some young LBs waiting who might do a good job if given the opportunity.
DL - Once again, this unit is the strength of the defense. The only major concern would be that if losing Soliai in FA leads to more responsibility being thrown at the LB unit to stop the run. Starks and Wake are as good as anyone in the league at their respective positions. Vernon and Odrick are very solid. I have no idea what to expect from Earl Mitchell, who is taking the place of Soliai inside. Fede and Johnson look like promising rookies to add to a very talented group at DL. I am not counting on Dion Jordan for anything at this point.
All in all, I expect the defense to be pretty good. Whether or not they can match last years performance remains to be seen. If this group falls off, the Phins could be in BIG trouble this year unless the offense takes a huge step forward.
WR - This is an outstanding group 1-5. Outstanding. While the Phins do not have a true superstar in this group, each and every one of them are very capable NFL players. IMHO, this is really the best kind of group to have in the modern era NFL. If you have one big time player and some average guys, an injury can sink you. But, when you have guys who are talented enough to beat 2nd, 3rd, and 4th DBs with regularity, it gives a QB one or two good options on every play. The depth also allows a team to sustain and injury or two and still be plenty competent at the position.
TE - Clay is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. The modern NFL is moving away from the traditional grind it out, blocking style TE who can catch a redzone pass or two. It has become more and more about having 1, or preferably 2 TEs who can threaten the seems from any spot on the field. If Gator Hoskins develops into a player as good as Clay, the Phins will have some serious weapons at TE.
RB - Moreno should give the Phins at least one true NFL RB. He can block, catch, and run when he gets some decent lanes. I have no idea why Miller holds a roster spot, but I have high hopes for Damien Williams. If one of the rookies can emerge, the Phins might have a good group here.
OL - Huge question mark. The Phins now have a top notch LT. Colledge should be adequate at one spot, likewise Satele until Pouncey returns. The right side is the big question mark. If James can do the job at RT, this group should be pretty good. I am really concerned about Shelley Smith being able to pass block at RG, but if James can hold down the RT spot, this should not be a huge issue once Pouncey returns. I am much more concerned about whether or not this group can open some running lanes for Moreno and Co. than their pass blocking. If the Phins can develop a decent rushing game this season, the pass blocking should improve based off the ability to run. Last season, the Phins could not have run the ball effectively against the U.
Finally QB - Tannehill should still throw those out routes between 7-15 yards real well. He does that nicely. He also seems to have a knack for connecting in the middle for the short gains to guys like Gibson, or hitting guys who get wide open on little short things set up by play design. Outside of that, I just do not see that much else that Tannehill does well. I still expect him to hold the ball, take sacks, fumble here and there, miss Mike Wallace when he is wide open deep, and throw the occasional INT when trying to attack the middle beyond 10 yards.
The problem with Tannehill is that he simply does not threaten the entire field. The defenses know this at this point. Everyone in the league knows it. The Phins have serious trouble scoring points with Tannehill at QB and that is the major reason why. Tannehill is simply extremely limited as a QB and this allows defenses to know where they can and can not be hurt by Tannehill. Having said that, if the Phins can actually develop a rushing attack and Philbin actually grow a brain and use it, the Phins could win games with Tannehill at QB so long as the defense remains as solid as they did last season. Should the defense take a step back, this could be 2011 all over again. It does however appear as though the Phins might allow Tannehill to make more positive gains with his legs this season as they should. A limited QB like that needs to utilize his legs to move the chains when he can.
Now, if the Phins would be willing to start Matt Moore, the chances of scoring points will be enhanced greatly. While Moore does not do many things great, he is an outstanding leader and throws a beautiful deep ball. While Moore can have the occasional disaster play, he puts the defense on their heals because he can attack the entire field. He can and will attack deep to all areas of the field. This threat opens up so much for the Phins offense. Both the WRs and RBs have much better opportunities to catch the ball in space and make plays. The rushing lanes are also much better because of Moore's ability to threaten the entire field. The offense uses the entire playing surface and the defense must defend it all when Moore is under center. While Moore does not have an A+ 7-15 yard stop pattern throw like Tannehill, he gives the team a much greater opportunity to score points and thus, a much better opportunity to win.
Coaching - Blah. I am afraid Philbin might be way in over his head as a HC. If he grows a brain and starts Matt Moore before we get to 4 losses with and at least 8 games left to play, we might be able to do something exciting this season.
Summary - The season is going to come down to whether or not this defense plays as well as last year. If it does, it is certainly possible the Phins find 10 wins, even with Tannehill in at QB and the Phins having scoring issues. Of course there is the chance that Tannehill takes it to the next level and shows himself to be a good QB who can put points on the board. We are all hoping that happens, I am just not as optimistic about it as the fans on this board. I have seen nothing in 31 games that suggests to me that Tannehill is going to be a guy that can hit the longer passes with enough consistency to make the opposing defense respect it, but that certainly does not mean it can't happen.
Record predicion - 7-9. I will play it somewhere in the middle. I think the high side is 10 wins and the low side is a complete disaster and a repeat of 2011. It really is tough to predict a record for this team. So much depends on the QB. I really believe this team has a ton of talent overall and if they just got good QB play they could compete for the whole thing if the defense were also as good as last season.
Around the league predicions
AFC
East - Patriots
North - Ravens
South - Colts
West - Broncos
WCs - Chargers, Bengals
NFC
East - Eagles
North - Packers
South - Falcons
West - Rams
WCs - Seahawks, Bears
AFC Championship
Patriots over Colts
NFC Championship
Falcons over Packers
Super Bowl
Falcons over Patriots
Tannehill does need to use his legs more
that was a great read, much fun. Falcons in the super bowl and the Raven winning their division. I about spit out my cereal laughing. Made my day, good job. Truely a funny read. Ignore those who didn't know you were joking. :up:
