It seems that is the play for a lot of Dolphins' fans these days. It is so fitting that Ryan Tannehill wears number 17. The analogy is pretty strong.
This team will win nothing with Ryan Tannehill at QB. Despite the mountain of evidence to support that statement over his 39 starts, Tannehill has his die hard supporters who hang on to every decent performance he has and dismiss every poor performance as "average" while finding it completely acceptable.
Last Sunday against a pathetic Jacksonville team, Tannehill was absolutely pathetic in the first half. He lead the offense to 3 and outs on their first 3 possessions. His play in the 2nd half was less than spectacular as well, especially considering the opponent. The Dolphins offense mustered a mere 13 points over the course of the game and had it not been for the fact that Blake Bortles made two huge errors that directly resulted in touchdowns for the Dolphins defense, Tannehill's performance would have not been sufficient enough to earn his team a victory. Had the Jaguars started the less than stellar Chad Henne at QB, they would have defeated the Tannehill lead Dolphins on Sunday.
It was just more evidence of the modus operandi of Ryan Tannehill. A few average to slightly above average performances over a stretch of games(typically 2 of 3, 3 of 4 etc etc or a half here and a half there) sprinkled in with a large bulk of pathetic. His most productive games are passed off as spectacular when in fact they are merely decent or pretty good. Tannehill simply does not produce monster games where he throws for 350-450 yards and 3-5 TDs. In fact he only has 1 career game with more than 350 yards(only 1 TD pass in that particular game) and only 3 games with 3 TD passes. He has never thrown 4 TD passes in one game. He just does not have huge games. On the other hand, he has quite a few games would be classified as terrible.
So far this season, Ryan Tannehill has played 2 games that would register in the pretty darn good range. He played well in London vs. a winless Raiders team that will be fortunate to win twice this season. He played well vs. a Bears team that looks like it can not beat anyone lately. In fact, the very next week, a real top notch QB played that Bears defense to the tune of 5 TD passes, over 300 yards, 50 points, and a comfy spot on the sidelines in the 4th qtr to allow his backup to mop up. To point to these two performances as evidence that Tannehill is turning some kind of corner at this stage in his career is reaching to say the least.
Despite all of this, Dolphins fans are dreaming up scenarios in which Tannehill leads the team to 7 wins in the last 10 games and a playoff birth. When you consider that the Dolphins, lead by Tannehill, are a mere 1-3 vs. opponents who currently hold a winning record, and that 7 of the teams remaining games are against such opponents, I find this scenario far fetched. (The lone win was vs. NE who clearly is not playing as poorly as they were at the start of the season) Even if the Dolphins were to win the 3 remaining games vs. inferior opponents(2 of those are divisional games vs. the Jests, mind you) that still puts the team at only 7 wins. This requires the team to go 2-4 at a minimum vs. the 6 mediocre or good teams remaining on the schedule. 3-3 is more likely to be required in those 6 contests, but even if we get 3 of those wins, with Tannehill at the controls, you simply can not chalk up 3 wins vs. the Vikings and Jests.
While this years OL is much better than last seasons and you can see that in the better rushing numbers as well as the number of sacks surrendered, Tannehill's passing numbers remain on par with what he has produced previously. With the schedule about to become much more difficult, one would think that these numbers may only begin to decline. When you consider that this year's defense has not been quite as good as last season's, you have to assume that Tannehill may need to be even better than he has so far this season should the Phins hope to win 5 more games.
Take a look at these numbers from another thread. These stats are based on throws traveling 20+ yards beyond the LOS. The chart with the numbers for all NFL QBs this season is located in the thread.....
This is why Ryan Tannehill will never be an effective, quality, NFL starter at QB. He simply does not threaten the defense. Part of the reason that his passer rating even hovers below mediocrity, is the fact that he simply does not threaten the field. The answer is not to call more deep throws. Should the Dolphins attempt to do so with Tannehill, it will simply result in more bad plays. Tannehill's numbers will rival those of the very worst QBs in the league. While keeping the leash on him, his TD numbers and YPA suffer, but his INTs stay lower and his completion percentage rise, resulting in a slightly better passer rating than what is reflective of his ability. The sad part is that even while padding his completion percentage and deflating his INT total, his passer rating is still not very good.
Tannehill is nothing more than around the 25th best starting QB in the NFL. That is all he ever will be. Thankfully for him, clueless teams start QBs like Geno's Myth and Mike Vick. When you sprinkle in a few rookies who are playing poorly, it gets Tannehill up to around that 25th area. But, that does not make him the 25th best QB. There are QBs currently on NFL benches who are better, namely the one on his own team's bench. Guys like Kyle Orton are hanging around waiting for work while teams roll garbage out there and pretend they have some kind of "upside". Buffalo's HC grew a brain and disposed of the bust the Bills drafted in the 1st round last year. Since Orton came in, the Bills are playing much better and the teams' offense is much more of a threat. Orton is not even a good QB. He is simply better than Manuel. He is also better than Tannehill.
So here we are standing on a soft 17 while the dealer is showing an ACE! Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger. That is who we are competing against folks. Will a soft 17 sometimes win for you in that situation? Sure. However, more often than not it will not. Could the Dolphins win the whole thing one season with a QB like Tannehill if they built a really great team around him? Sure. Why not? I have seen some less than good QBs win championships. Not very often though. When it has happened, it has been thanks to an all time great defense and solid rushing attack though. Asking a team to build that for the sake of winning with Tannehill is silly though, is it not?
I do not stand on soft 17 when the dealer is showing an ace. HIT ME! What is that? You say you are counting the cards and there are few 3s and 4s remaining in the deck? Well no **** Sherlock. I have been counting the cards too. I know there are a bunch of stiffs in next years draft and the next card is likely not going to help. Still.......... HIT ME. What is the worst that can happen? We draw an 8 and wind up with a 15 which is a total stiff, are forced to hit again and BUST? So be it. I would rather take my shot than stand here on a 17 that I know damn well is not going to put chips back in my stack. I would much rather draw at the long odds in this situation. I need a 20 or 21 to have any hopes of consistently winning in this game. HIT ME!!!!!!!!
Lesson of the day : When the dealer is showing something strong, DO NOT stand on SOFT 17! You will lose more often than you win if you stand on soft 17.
This team will win nothing with Ryan Tannehill at QB. Despite the mountain of evidence to support that statement over his 39 starts, Tannehill has his die hard supporters who hang on to every decent performance he has and dismiss every poor performance as "average" while finding it completely acceptable.
Last Sunday against a pathetic Jacksonville team, Tannehill was absolutely pathetic in the first half. He lead the offense to 3 and outs on their first 3 possessions. His play in the 2nd half was less than spectacular as well, especially considering the opponent. The Dolphins offense mustered a mere 13 points over the course of the game and had it not been for the fact that Blake Bortles made two huge errors that directly resulted in touchdowns for the Dolphins defense, Tannehill's performance would have not been sufficient enough to earn his team a victory. Had the Jaguars started the less than stellar Chad Henne at QB, they would have defeated the Tannehill lead Dolphins on Sunday.
It was just more evidence of the modus operandi of Ryan Tannehill. A few average to slightly above average performances over a stretch of games(typically 2 of 3, 3 of 4 etc etc or a half here and a half there) sprinkled in with a large bulk of pathetic. His most productive games are passed off as spectacular when in fact they are merely decent or pretty good. Tannehill simply does not produce monster games where he throws for 350-450 yards and 3-5 TDs. In fact he only has 1 career game with more than 350 yards(only 1 TD pass in that particular game) and only 3 games with 3 TD passes. He has never thrown 4 TD passes in one game. He just does not have huge games. On the other hand, he has quite a few games would be classified as terrible.
So far this season, Ryan Tannehill has played 2 games that would register in the pretty darn good range. He played well in London vs. a winless Raiders team that will be fortunate to win twice this season. He played well vs. a Bears team that looks like it can not beat anyone lately. In fact, the very next week, a real top notch QB played that Bears defense to the tune of 5 TD passes, over 300 yards, 50 points, and a comfy spot on the sidelines in the 4th qtr to allow his backup to mop up. To point to these two performances as evidence that Tannehill is turning some kind of corner at this stage in his career is reaching to say the least.
Despite all of this, Dolphins fans are dreaming up scenarios in which Tannehill leads the team to 7 wins in the last 10 games and a playoff birth. When you consider that the Dolphins, lead by Tannehill, are a mere 1-3 vs. opponents who currently hold a winning record, and that 7 of the teams remaining games are against such opponents, I find this scenario far fetched. (The lone win was vs. NE who clearly is not playing as poorly as they were at the start of the season) Even if the Dolphins were to win the 3 remaining games vs. inferior opponents(2 of those are divisional games vs. the Jests, mind you) that still puts the team at only 7 wins. This requires the team to go 2-4 at a minimum vs. the 6 mediocre or good teams remaining on the schedule. 3-3 is more likely to be required in those 6 contests, but even if we get 3 of those wins, with Tannehill at the controls, you simply can not chalk up 3 wins vs. the Vikings and Jests.
While this years OL is much better than last seasons and you can see that in the better rushing numbers as well as the number of sacks surrendered, Tannehill's passing numbers remain on par with what he has produced previously. With the schedule about to become much more difficult, one would think that these numbers may only begin to decline. When you consider that this year's defense has not been quite as good as last season's, you have to assume that Tannehill may need to be even better than he has so far this season should the Phins hope to win 5 more games.
Take a look at these numbers from another thread. These stats are based on throws traveling 20+ yards beyond the LOS. The chart with the numbers for all NFL QBs this season is located in the thread.....
This is why Ryan Tannehill will never be an effective, quality, NFL starter at QB. He simply does not threaten the defense. Part of the reason that his passer rating even hovers below mediocrity, is the fact that he simply does not threaten the field. The answer is not to call more deep throws. Should the Dolphins attempt to do so with Tannehill, it will simply result in more bad plays. Tannehill's numbers will rival those of the very worst QBs in the league. While keeping the leash on him, his TD numbers and YPA suffer, but his INTs stay lower and his completion percentage rise, resulting in a slightly better passer rating than what is reflective of his ability. The sad part is that even while padding his completion percentage and deflating his INT total, his passer rating is still not very good.
Tannehill is nothing more than around the 25th best starting QB in the NFL. That is all he ever will be. Thankfully for him, clueless teams start QBs like Geno's Myth and Mike Vick. When you sprinkle in a few rookies who are playing poorly, it gets Tannehill up to around that 25th area. But, that does not make him the 25th best QB. There are QBs currently on NFL benches who are better, namely the one on his own team's bench. Guys like Kyle Orton are hanging around waiting for work while teams roll garbage out there and pretend they have some kind of "upside". Buffalo's HC grew a brain and disposed of the bust the Bills drafted in the 1st round last year. Since Orton came in, the Bills are playing much better and the teams' offense is much more of a threat. Orton is not even a good QB. He is simply better than Manuel. He is also better than Tannehill.
So here we are standing on a soft 17 while the dealer is showing an ACE! Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger. That is who we are competing against folks. Will a soft 17 sometimes win for you in that situation? Sure. However, more often than not it will not. Could the Dolphins win the whole thing one season with a QB like Tannehill if they built a really great team around him? Sure. Why not? I have seen some less than good QBs win championships. Not very often though. When it has happened, it has been thanks to an all time great defense and solid rushing attack though. Asking a team to build that for the sake of winning with Tannehill is silly though, is it not?
I do not stand on soft 17 when the dealer is showing an ace. HIT ME! What is that? You say you are counting the cards and there are few 3s and 4s remaining in the deck? Well no **** Sherlock. I have been counting the cards too. I know there are a bunch of stiffs in next years draft and the next card is likely not going to help. Still.......... HIT ME. What is the worst that can happen? We draw an 8 and wind up with a 15 which is a total stiff, are forced to hit again and BUST? So be it. I would rather take my shot than stand here on a 17 that I know damn well is not going to put chips back in my stack. I would much rather draw at the long odds in this situation. I need a 20 or 21 to have any hopes of consistently winning in this game. HIT ME!!!!!!!!
Lesson of the day : When the dealer is showing something strong, DO NOT stand on SOFT 17! You will lose more often than you win if you stand on soft 17.
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