Yearly Need vs Value Drafting Debate

[Chubby]

Hello and welcome to our yearly discussion on drafting Need vs Value.

It's obvious that our fins use a Value base drafting style, while i think their is a proven track record that value based drafting works best for certain team, i do not think it works for the Fins.

Let me explain and use our need/interest at QB as an example:


It is looking by all reports that the Fiins have taken a liking to Colin Kaepernick. If its true then it looks like they have decided to go with an athletic type QB over a pocket style guy. If this is the case then why settle for the 2nd or 3rd best Athletic QB in the draft. why not do everything possible to move and go grab the best Athletic QB (Newton)coming out?

I know their reasoning will be best value, but WTF Drafting value is what has gotten us to this mess we are in. Value drafting only works for teams already embedded into the playoffs whom are just fine tuning 1 or 2 major peices and working on improving a few smaller needs.

Teams like the fins, With Huge wholes everywhere need to draft BPA at a postion of need.

I rate our needs in this order:

1.QB 2.RB 3.TE 4.C 5.Speed Reciever

With their first pick they need to do everythign possible to land the Best available player at QB then with their 2nd round pick they need to do everything possible to land the best available Running back etc.. etc...

Doesnt mean they can't move back. Hell make an effort to go after Newton/Gabbert and if its not possible then move back a bit and go grab Mallet while gaining a 2nd round pick.

Again, imo need >value if you have more wholes the picks. Value >Need if you have few needs.

what are your thoughts?
chubbs

 

[Buff]

I see what your saying. Need V Value has been an issue for some time. Jake Long was better value because there was more of a chance of him succeeding in the NFL than Ryan. In the end, an all pro LT wasn't a bad pick, but we will never ever know if Ryan would have succeeded in Miami.

We have a lot of needs ATM. Fair to say almost every spot on the Offense side bar Jake Long, Marshall & Bess is open to competition. Thats sad really.

Last year, trading down was the right thing to do. Although Odrick didnt have an impact due to injury, he was highly regarded by many, and will improve our team in 2011. So that is like an extra 1st round pick in 2011. That was a value pick. Matthews who went to SD didn't really do a lot. Misi had a pretty decent year.

We have a hell of a lot of needs in 2011, and most are on the O side of the ball.

ATM, the biggest issues that I see are RB - with both R&R being free agents. Everyone says that running backs are easy to pick up in later rounds. If so, why hasnt Hilliard been the starter? To me, with the state that Miami is in, we take the best player available to help with our offence. Be that WR/RB/QB/C/G/T. It doesn't matter because whoever we select, there is a big chance that they may well start in 2011. I think that with no 2nd round pick ATM, getting a value pick - and by that I think that that we will trade down & probably pick up a centre/guard or if available Leshoure. We then grab a mid to late 2nd as well . We really need starters who can make a difference.

IMO Henne should, but probably wont be given the benefit of the doubt of his abilities due to poor play calling from our OC. Unless either Newton or Locker is there at 15, we should trade down. Ingram as much as I think he will be very good, and I would like to see him at Miami, may be used as a trade bait with either the Saints or Seattle. That would be a very good scenario, grabbing a 2nd and trading down with either team, and that would be a value decision.

With so many needs, it's hard to say what Miami will do. If I were the GM, and Newton/Locker and julio Jones was still available, then i would grab one of them. If they were gone, then I would trade down & grab a second.

It's a knife edge at the moment. But its a very good question Chubbs. looking forward to the FA period.

 

[Kdawg954]

I actually disagree and I tell you why . . . the Fins need improvement in several areas . . . not just QB. Just because you rate the QB as your #1 priority, you shouldn't pass on "another" position of need that has higher value over a QB who you don't rate as high as that player.

Teams who have most of their pieces need to get that player that knows will get them to the next level, the Fins can get that from a dominating LG or C, a TE, a speed WR, a speed RB and definitely a QB.

So if Newton and Gabbert are gone, why should we take Jake Locker (who we'll say they have a 2nd grade on . . . tho he fits that athletic mold) when we can take Julio Jones (if available), who we have a mid first on and fills one of those major needs as well. You have to trust your scouting and instincts if you are Miami, don't be hard pressed to take a QB for the sake of just taking one in the first round just because people feel you have to. We reached on Pat White in round 2, how did that work out. People put too much emphasis on "drafting a first round QB" . . . no draft class is the same. In fact, we considered Henne at 32 that year . . . technically a 2nd rounder by choice, but would have been a first rounder by pick slot . . . people would have used that technicallity as "we need to take a guy in the first round" . . . it wouldn't matter if it was 28 or 31 or 32 or 40 . . . we selected that guy and we have to live with it. Once a coaching staff/GM loses confidence in themselves, it is time for them to exit . . . and I don't think Ireland/Sparano give a damn what people are saying on forums or on radio shows . . . they will do what they feel is necessary for the better of the team, and I agree with that.

Now when we drafted Odrick last year, we got great value, but at the time I thought we didn't need to address the DE position with other holes to fill. That is what great teams do, they either grab a guy that will move them to the next level . . . or they better positions of strength so they aren't binded when free agency comes. I mean it may work out for Miami, because of the amount of teams transitioning to the 3-4, you have 3 guys in Starks, Langford and Merling who need to eventually be resigned . . . and now maybe a team can give you a pick for one of them, and you can use that to address a need in this draft while at the same time keeping your stud DE that you just drafted for another 4 years under contract. It worked for Atlanta with Matt Schaub . . . I think he was a 3rd or 4th rounder, they had Vick . . . and a few years later they turned Schaub into 2 2nd round picks.

The draft is NEVER about reaching for need, the great teams don't reach for need . . . they draft on value, and Miami should continue to do the same. Miami reached in 2009 on Pat White and Patrick Turner . . . and even Brian Hartline . . . and now we have 2 guys out the league, and another guy who will probably be a 4th string WR if we get our guy this draft. Trust your instincts, but don't pass up obvious value over reaching for a guy because he fits a need . . . especially in the first round.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

You don't pass up elite talent with the 15th pick in the draft if one falls to you... and there's a good possibility that some elite talent on the offensive side of the ball is going to be there for Miami to take at #15...

I don't think they're looking for better "value" if they choose not to take Cam Newton early and would rather have Kaepernick later... these guys just aren't going to use that high of a pick on a quarterback with only 1 year of starting experience, that comes from a gimmick-high school offense, who brings enough baggage to sink the Mississippi Queen... and has a 90% chance of busting out.

If Cam Newton is 6'5", 245 pounds, has an above average arm, and runs a 4.5... why would they use the 15th pick on him when they can get a similar type "athlete" who's 6'5", 225 pounds, who has an above average arm, and runs a 4.5, but also comes with 4 years of starting experience and pristine character in the middle rounds...

I don't think that one is hard to figure out at all.


It allows them to use their 1st round pick on a potentially elite talent at another position that has significantly less bust potential.

 

[Tunaphish429]

You don't pass up elite talent with the 15th pick in the draft if one falls to you... and there's a good possibility that some elite talent on the offensive side of the ball is going to be there for Miami to take at #15...

I don't think they're looking for better "value" if they choose not to take Cam Newton early and would rather have Kaepernick later... these guys just aren't going to use that high of a pick on a quarterback with only 1 year of starting experience, that comes from a gimmick-high school offense, who brings enough baggage to sink the Mississippi Queen... and has a 90% chance of busting out.

If Cam Newton is 6'5", 245 pounds, has an above average arm, and runs a 4.5... why would they use the 15th pick on him when they can get a similar type "athlete" who's 6'5", 225 pounds, who has an above average arm, and runs a 4.5, but also comes with 4 years of starting experience and pristine character in the middle rounds...

I don't think that one is hard to figure out at all.


It allows them to use their 1st round pick on a potentially elite talent at another position that has significantly less bust potential.

Young 1st round qb's can sell tickets and jersey's, So if Ross is pulling the string a bit more I could see us taking him. God forbid it.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

You don't pass up elite talent with the 15th pick in the draft if one falls to you... and there's a good possibility that some elite talent on the offensive side of the ball is going to be there for Miami to take at #15...

I don't think they're looking for better "value" if they choose not to take Cam Newton early and would rather have Kaepernick later... these guys just aren't going to use that high of a pick on a quarterback with only 1 year of starting experience, that comes from a gimmick-high school offense, who brings enough baggage to sink the Mississippi Queen... and has a 90% chance of busting out.

If Cam Newton is 6'5", 245 pounds, has an above average arm, and runs a 4.5... why would they use the 15th pick on him when they can get a similar type "athlete" who's 6'5", 225 pounds, who has an above average arm, and runs a 4.5, but also comes with 4 years of starting experience and pristine character in the middle rounds...

I don't think that one is hard to figure out at all.


It allows them to use their 1st round pick on a potentially elite talent at another position that has significantly less bust potential.

I think it's pretty misleading or stupid - take your pick - to say that Newton and Kaepernick both have above average arms as though they are the same.

 

[Tunaphish429]

I think it's pretty misleading or stupid - take your pick - to say that Newton and Kaepernick both have above average arms as though they are the same.

You have to admit their measurables are pretty similar, in not identical. Same thing with Mark Ingram and Delone Carter..

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I think it's pretty misleading or stupid - take your pick - to say that Newton and Kaepernick both have above average arms as though they are the same.

Arm STRENGTH wise the difference between the two is negligible... throwing MECHANICS is where the difference is.

I think it's pretty stupid to stake your job as an NFL front office executive on a kid like Cam Newton in the 1st round.


The 3 biggest red flags a quarterback prospect can possibly come with are:

1. Inexperience as a starter (1 year wonder)

2. Coming out of a system that doesn't translate

3. Criminal record and questionable character



One strike is cause for immediate concern, two strikes is enough to make most GM's stay completely away...

..three strikes is enough to take you entirely off a lot of team's draft boards.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

You have to admit their measurables are pretty similar, in not identical. Same thing with Mark Ingram and Delone Carter..

It's like saying Jake Plummer and Aaron Rodgers are both mobile with above average arms and leaving it at that.

 

[Chubby]

You don't pass up elite talent with the 15th pick in the draft if one falls to you... and there's a good possibility that some elite talent on the offensive side of the ball is going to be there for Miami to take at #15...

I don't think they're looking for better "value" if they choose not to take Cam Newton early and would rather have Kaepernick later... these guys just aren't going to use that high of a pick on a quarterback with only 1 year of starting experience, that comes from a gimmick-high school offense, who brings enough baggage to sink the Mississippi Queen... and has a 90% chance of busting out.

If Cam Newton is 6'5", 245 pounds, has an above average arm, and runs a 4.5... why would they use the 15th pick on him when they can get a similar type "athlete" who's 6'5", 225 pounds, who has an above average arm, and runs a 4.5, but also comes with 4 years of starting experience and pristine character in the middle rounds...

I don't think that one is hard to figure out at all.


It allows them to use their 1st round pick on a potentially elite talent at another position that has significantly less bust potential.

My whole point is, if in your evaluation Newton is better then Colin and Both are available at 15 you do not pass on Newton because later on you can still get Colin. This is a fail solution to improving your QB position.

This might "Might" work at another position but I dont think it works with the QB. Not to bring up the Ryan/Long debate again but they thought it was best value to pass on Ryan because a few other guys would be available in the 2nd round.

This is a fail method that doesnt work with this position.
Chubbs

 

[greasyObnoxious]

You don't pass up elite talent with the 15th pick in the draft if one falls to you... and there's a good possibility that some elite talent on the offensive side of the ball is going to be there for Miami to take at #15...

i agree with this, although i would pick any elite talent, not just offense. if, say, Prince Amukamara is available at #15, i'll take him and smile.

 

[Tunaphish429]

It's like saying Jake Plummer and Aaron Rodgers are both mobile with above average arms and leaving it at that.

Idk how thats even a similar analogy? Plummer was a decent qb in his day, servicable. But Aaron Rodgers is an elite qb.

 

[Tunaphish429]

My whole point is, if in your evaluation Newton is better then Colin and Both are available at 15 you do not pass on Newton because later on you can still get Colin. This is a fail solution to improving your QB position.

This might "Might" work at another position but I dont think it works with the QB. Not to bring up the Ryan/Long debate again but they thought it was best value to pass on Ryan because a few other guys would be available in the 2nd round.

This is a fail method that doesnt work with this position.
Chubbs

Thats where risk/reward comes into play...I understand hey maybe you dont improve your qb posistion if you get Kaepernick in the later rounds but at least you didnt draft a bust with your 1st rounder..Squandering the oppurtunity to get better talent and of course the money.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Arm STRENGTH wise the difference between the two is negligible... throwing MECHANICS is where the difference is.

I think it's pretty stupid to stake your job as an NFL front office executive on a kid like Cam Newton in the 1st round.


The 3 biggest red flags a quarterback prospect can possibly come with are:

1. Inexperience as a starter (1 year wonder)

2. Coming out of a system that doesn't translate

3. Criminal record and questionable character



One strike is cause for immediate concern, two strikes is enough to make most GM's stay completely away...

..three strikes is enough to take you entirely off a lot of team's draft boards.

I appreciate that, and I think GM's and coaches will be ultra-attentive during his interview process and check every street he ever walked down. I do, though, think it's a mistake to judge prospects by anything except that player's physical ability, mental ability, and character. If his character is a legitimate concern, I don't think we're in a position to judge it. I've heard more good than bad. If I trust my OC and my QB coach and I think the kid is intelligent, I don't worry about the system thing.

I respect your opinion a ton. I just think this particular method of 'bust prevention' is just a slightly better version of Parcells' QB rules. I also will be the first to admit that you've probably watched more Cam Newton than I have this season. I only saw a couple games live, and I've been playing catch up - downloading the games where I can when I can - the last few weeks. I've seen most of them at this point. I'd guess you've seen all of them. That said, based on what I've seen, I can't envision Newton being anything lesser than a much better version of V. Young. As far as his ceiling . . . something like Big Ben with a stronger arm and MUCH better wheels.

 

[Chubby]

Thats where risk/reward comes into play...I understand hey maybe you dont improve your qb posistion if you get Kaepernick in the later rounds but at least you didnt draft a bust with your 1st rounder..Squandering the oppurtunity to get better talent and of course the money.

Here is where I think i disagree. IMO, Its riskier to select the #2 guy then it is to select the #1 guy. They both are both risks, but a 1st round top 15 guy should have less risk of busting then a 2nd round guy would.

We cant keep settling for the 2nd rate guy because he is better value, we need to go after the best available guy in the most important position of need every time.
Chubbs