you guys think Tate will still be there at 43?
- Thread starter Danny
- Start date
ckparrothead
Premium Member
Won't know until draft day.
Generally speaking I think the following:
1. Seems like you can get a good OLB on into the 2nd and maybe even 3rd rounds. I haven't been in love with Koa Misi but he could be there at #43. I do like Thaddeus Gibson and Jason Worilds. Ricky Sapp could be available at #43. Hard to know what their feelings are on Eric Norwood, but he's an option. Jermaine Cunningham is a candidate as well.
2. Seems like you can get a good TE on into the 4th and maybe even 5th rounds. I know that my favorite guy Dennis Pitta will be gone by then but guys like the athletic Clay Harbor and Dorin Dickerson, and underrated guys like Tony Moeaki, Garrett Graham and Andrew Quarless could all be there in the mid rounds.
3. Once you get beyond Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Golden Tate and perhaps Arrelious Benn, things break down very quickly at the WR position. Speedy guys that are shrimps (Jacoby Ford, Kyle Williams, Andre Roberts, Emmanuel Sanders), bigger guys that are plodders (Chris McGaha, Brandon LaFell, Blair White, Dezmon Briscoe, Freddie Barnes, Eric Decker, Riley Cooper, Shay Hodge), great athletes with questionable hands and/or experience (Carlton Mitchell, Taylor Price, Marcus Easley, David Gettis), productive players without great size or speed (Damian Williams, Dexter McCluster, Jordan Shipley, Mardy Gilyard, Jeremy Williams) and one guy with perhaps the full package that is ridiculously handicapped by a bad head and attitude (Mike Williams). Not very exciting.
4. The only free safety prospects I can see everyone in the room agreeing on would be Earl Thomas, Nate Allen and Major Wright. You have to take Earl at #12 or forget about him. Nate Allen is no lock to make it to #43. Major Wright might not make it to #74.
So...all in all...if it were up to me we'd be building up to a question of whether Dez Bryant is available at #12 or not. If he is, then I take him and I don't look back. That would mean you're hoping Nate Allen falls to #43 and if he does you take him, then an OLB in the 3rd and TE in the 4th. If not you grab an OLB in the 2nd, hope for Major Wright in the 3rd, and take a TE in the 4th. If Major Wright isn't available in the 3rd I think you bump up that TE choice to the 3rd round, and quite possibly skip out on the safety class altogether and just have Culver and Clemons duke it out for the start.
If Dez Bryant is not available at #12, we could be looking at going with Earl Thomas early, then hoping that Tate, Thomas or Benn falls to #43. If one of those guys does not fall then I think they grab an OLB in the 2nd round, and I could see them going for like an Andre Roberts in the 3rd round, then hoping one of the TEs they like drops into the 4th round. But, I would think Benn is fairly likely to fall to #43 and so I could see them grabbing a Thaddeus Gibson in the 3rd and then, let's say Clay Harbor in the 4th.
To that end, that could be why the Dolphins seem intent on bringing in a Guard/Tackle via free agency (Adam Terry? Chester Pitts?), and why they could be looking at Travis LaBoy to be their starting LOLB so that their 2nd or 3rd round rookie wouldn't feel pressure to start immediately. Also, I have a feeling that the Pats are refusing to cut Adalius Thomas and trying to trade him because they think the Dolphins or Jets will get him.
Generally speaking I think the following:
1. Seems like you can get a good OLB on into the 2nd and maybe even 3rd rounds. I haven't been in love with Koa Misi but he could be there at #43. I do like Thaddeus Gibson and Jason Worilds. Ricky Sapp could be available at #43. Hard to know what their feelings are on Eric Norwood, but he's an option. Jermaine Cunningham is a candidate as well.
2. Seems like you can get a good TE on into the 4th and maybe even 5th rounds. I know that my favorite guy Dennis Pitta will be gone by then but guys like the athletic Clay Harbor and Dorin Dickerson, and underrated guys like Tony Moeaki, Garrett Graham and Andrew Quarless could all be there in the mid rounds.
3. Once you get beyond Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Golden Tate and perhaps Arrelious Benn, things break down very quickly at the WR position. Speedy guys that are shrimps (Jacoby Ford, Kyle Williams, Andre Roberts, Emmanuel Sanders), bigger guys that are plodders (Chris McGaha, Brandon LaFell, Blair White, Dezmon Briscoe, Freddie Barnes, Eric Decker, Riley Cooper, Shay Hodge), great athletes with questionable hands and/or experience (Carlton Mitchell, Taylor Price, Marcus Easley, David Gettis), productive players without great size or speed (Damian Williams, Dexter McCluster, Jordan Shipley, Mardy Gilyard, Jeremy Williams) and one guy with perhaps the full package that is ridiculously handicapped by a bad head and attitude (Mike Williams). Not very exciting.
4. The only free safety prospects I can see everyone in the room agreeing on would be Earl Thomas, Nate Allen and Major Wright. You have to take Earl at #12 or forget about him. Nate Allen is no lock to make it to #43. Major Wright might not make it to #74.
So...all in all...if it were up to me we'd be building up to a question of whether Dez Bryant is available at #12 or not. If he is, then I take him and I don't look back. That would mean you're hoping Nate Allen falls to #43 and if he does you take him, then an OLB in the 3rd and TE in the 4th. If not you grab an OLB in the 2nd, hope for Major Wright in the 3rd, and take a TE in the 4th. If Major Wright isn't available in the 3rd I think you bump up that TE choice to the 3rd round, and quite possibly skip out on the safety class altogether and just have Culver and Clemons duke it out for the start.
If Dez Bryant is not available at #12, we could be looking at going with Earl Thomas early, then hoping that Tate, Thomas or Benn falls to #43. If one of those guys does not fall then I think they grab an OLB in the 2nd round, and I could see them going for like an Andre Roberts in the 3rd round, then hoping one of the TEs they like drops into the 4th round. But, I would think Benn is fairly likely to fall to #43 and so I could see them grabbing a Thaddeus Gibson in the 3rd and then, let's say Clay Harbor in the 4th.
To that end, that could be why the Dolphins seem intent on bringing in a Guard/Tackle via free agency (Adam Terry? Chester Pitts?), and why they could be looking at Travis LaBoy to be their starting LOLB so that their 2nd or 3rd round rookie wouldn't feel pressure to start immediately. Also, I have a feeling that the Pats are refusing to cut Adalius Thomas and trying to trade him because they think the Dolphins or Jets will get him.
Last edited by a moderator:
Mile High Fin
Pro Bowler
Now, that's a strategy/plan...
Thanks for the realistic alternative scenarios...
Very nicely laid out...
dolphinsbshaw72
Practice Squad
he will not be there with the 43 pick.. pipe dream!!!!
wow, that's amazing.....even if I was that good with the draft I still wouldn't have the time....I'm a manager at Fridays and I just got home from work at 4:30am....nice read.
Ozzy rules!!
I have been a member for a few years but have never posted. thought I would give it a try. CK I always look forward to reading your post. My question is I noticed you did not mention a NT do you think they will wait till the 6-7 rounds to draft one to develop or is there someone round 3-4 that they may like?
TheBow305
Starter
He reminds me of a less emotional Steve Smith. And no, I don't think he'll make it to 43.
ckparrothead
Premium Member
I would honestly not be surprised if the Dolphins didn't take a single NT in this draft.
Last year everyone clamored for a NT and I thought they might stand pat and they did. I see this year similar.
Problem is that Soliai is on an upward climb. His rookie year people thought he should be cut. His second year he actually showed some flashes and signs he might end up a good player. His third year he showed way more than his second year. Where does the train stop? You can't say he's done developing when you see guys like Randy Starks, Albert Haynesworth, Aubrayo Franklin and Ryan Pickett only reach peak value in their 6th, 7th, even 8th or 9th seasons. They were still getting better all that time. Soliai could be a lot like that. Daniel Jeremiah says that when Paul came out and he looked at him, he was maybe the most raw DL player he's ever graded. So he was always destined to take a while to learn the game. The encouraging thing is that I believe Paul was ahead of guys like Franklin, Pickett and Starks compared with where those guys were by their third year.
I want to see years 4, 5 and 6 in Paul Soliai because he could continue to get better every year. There's lots of precedent for it and he's shown some really excellent things.
Anyway the NT position is basically a two down position. Jason Ferguson was taking something like 47 percent of snaps when he was healthy this year, and Soliai as his NT backup only got in on an additional 13% of snaps, and some of those snaps were likely some goal line type packages where they both come on the field, so really the 3-4 NT position as we know it is probably a 55% position. In other words, half a starter. You have to think, would you go 6-deep at QB? Would you go 6-deep at RB? Would you go 12-deep at WR? I don't think so. So why focus on going 3-deep at the square bodied, one-dimensional NT position?
Miami will have Jason Ferguson back in the final 8 games, and until then Soliai can start at the NT position while Tony McDaniel trains on as his backup, and guys like Randy Starks, Ryan Baker and Lionel Dotson can all play there depending on the situation.
Right now the Dolphins have heavy needs at WR, TE, OLB and FS. If you take a NT that just functions as an insurance policy, you do so at the expense of a position that goes unfilled. I'm not saying definitely don't do it, just that it's a tough call to make and you really have to have strong conviction in the player you're taking in order to do that.
I think Miami is five times more likely to draft a DE type that could perhaps move inside to NT on some passing downs. Someone like an Arthur Jones.
Chubby
SUPERFAN
So basically Ck your thinking is, you only see them taking a NT if one of the premier guys slip farther then they should? or do you see them not doing it all , like if Cam Thomas is available somewhere around the 4th for some reason or Cody at #43 etc..
ckparrothead
Premium Member
I see them taking a nose tackle only if they have a guy that they're really really high on that they just think is the bee's knees. They may have a chubby for Cam Thomas based on hooshoops' conversation with Jeff Ireland during the season.
Pat-London
Active Roster
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2009
- Messages
- 1,052
- Reaction score
- 49
Stack up on Linebackers. The key to the 34. Let the kid Clemons play and see what we get from him, nothing could be worse than Wilson and Clemons has speed to cover some mistakes.
Getting a TE is crucial, agree with CK on Pitta, but we're probably looking more at a Dickerson in the 4th, if not 3rd as they could reach a bit for him.
Getting a TE is crucial, agree with CK on Pitta, but we're probably looking more at a Dickerson in the 4th, if not 3rd as they could reach a bit for him.
ckparrothead
Premium Member
I really like Jacoby Ford, and Kyle Williams.