Zim’s Grades For The Game: Week 6 Edition | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Zim’s Grades For The Game: Week 6 Edition

DrMultimedia said:
Thanks. I was a physicist back in my day and even taught an undergrad game theory class every so often. Glad someone posted the proper math. 😀

And as you pointed out, the top issue is the fact that it's not 50/50. Various show stats that for an "average" team it's well below 50%, and as you said we aren't exactly a team that pushes people around (or protects the QB) when we need two yards. Almost last in third down conversion in general.

If you try on the first TD I find the psychology of not making it rather meaningful. You suddenly feel the pressure of needing the TD and a two point just to tie. The other team knows that and won't be as stressed about losing.

I'm really sick of so many coaches starting to say the call was due to analytics. If it's purey analytic there is no need for a coach at all.

Nice write up on Wikipedia. As they state, it's only mathematical favorable if you convert more than 38% of the time. I don't know if we do (and that is yet another issue...to have true stats you need a large data set).

en.m.wikipedia.org

Two-point conversion - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

And a fun write up on 3rd down conversions (college data).

staturdays.com

Comparing Third Down Conversion Rate by Distance to Go

In almost every game, announcers find a point to mention each team’s third down conversion rate. Sometimes it’s their conversion rate for that game only, and sometimes it’s their conversion rate fo…
staturdays.com staturdays.com

Ok... Enough math and psychology discussion for the morning. The topic got me so revved up I wrote a simulation for it and fired up my brain cells for the first time in awhile.
Click to expand...
Love it. I love math and stats. I’m from a science family in general. We are all good on the left side of the brain but none of us can draw so much as a stick figure, are slow readers etc! I totally “get” the whole analytics in sports thing - I do. At the same time, there has to be some balance eg, coach having a feel for how the team is playing and being able to override the stats. I think- and I could be wrong here - but BB says he doesn’t make game decisions using much in the way of stats. He’s likely in the minority of course. It’s the psychological part you referred to that is so unmeasurable that makes it so interesting- and to your point if you always play the odds you don’t have much to do! It’s like playing blackjack and never deviating from playing a hand by the book. Sure, in the long run it’s not a good idea but in the short run it could help you win a “game”. Ok, bad example but 😂
 
Rick Cartman said:
I thought the defense played excellent yesterday
Iggy did fine after that PI. The guy held his own against Adam Thielen.
I also think we win that game if Thompson doesn't get hurt, but it is what it is.
Click to expand...
I saw it the same way. Thompson was just better prepared having taken the no 1 reps.

And yeah, Iggy. Wow - he blanketed those guys on those 2 PBUs. Good for him. W Needham hurt, he’s going to play. This is a golden opportunity for him to grow and show why he was a no 1 pick. If he can play like he did on those two plays he can be special.
 
Agree w/ alot of your post. Some random notes from me-

-first of all, just to address it, I dont hate the call on the fake punt - if Ingold makes his block, we get that first down. But also - why in the hell is Feje the man we use for that? Sure "no one expects it" .... but can we get an actual athlete, or someone who can break a tackle back there???

-really like how Skylar was playing before he got hurt.

-Need more from the run game (would Cam Akers add some power??)

-both of those two things can be directly attributed to just how terrible the OL has been. Getting guys back should help (but only a matter of time until TA goes down again) ... I think Taylor Moton on the panthers could be a good option. Also, maybe throw Dieter back in there instead of Eichenberg. jfc

-WRs - Cedric Wilson has been dissappointing no doubt. Does anyone know though? Has he been getting open? I mean our studs will obviously get the lionshare. But I'm ready to see Easy E get some action.

-I expect the TE blocking wouldve been better with Smythe playing. I think Michael Mayer next year could do great things for our offense. Sure would be nice to have those 2 first round picks.. too many ways we could go

-LBs. Tindall needs to get experience out there. These dudes mostly arent good, but hey at least we got some pressure this game. The DL (Wilkins especially) was very good today.

-DBs played well for a long time, but it got to be too much and the game was out of hand. You know JJ is gonna get his, just sucks X got roasted. With Needham going down, Kohou needs to get healthy to man the slot. Crossen has had some good plays too, and Iggy even stepped up. So our depth is doing okay, BUT, I do worry about the health of our 2 main guys. We havent even seen Byron Jones yet, how will he look? X appears to lost a step and is he healthy? idk. Someone brought up William Jackson, and I think thats a damn good idea. Bring in more talent, makes byron more expendable next year. I wonder if eventually we could move X to safety, and have him play that Eric Rowe / TE elimanator role

-I'm over Jason Sanders. Bring in competition next year, unlikely we get anyone better this year but he has been frustrating
 
CANDolphan said:
Your eyes don't deceive you. Its such a blown call its almost comical.

That's two games we've had direct scoring plays with atrocious missed calls. Refs are incredibly bad this year.
Click to expand...
Yeah in addition to my post above, the refs really had it in for us this game. Called us for everything, even little ticky tack things. Yet they call nothing on the Vikings. I remember a play where TB got his facemask slapped, head moves and all, and nada
 
Travis34 said:
Agree w/ alot of your post. Some random notes from me-

-first of all, just to address it, I dont hate the call on the fake punt - if Ingold makes his block, we get that first down. But also - why in the hell is Feje the man we use for that? Sure "no one expects it" .... but can we get an actual athlete, or someone who can break a tackle back there???

-really like how Skylar was playing before he got hurt.

-Need more from the run game (would Cam Akers add some power??)

-both of those two things can be directly attributed to just how terrible the OL has been. Getting guys back should help (but only a matter of time until TA goes down again) ... I think Taylor Moton on the panthers could be a good option. Also, maybe throw Dieter back in there instead of Eichenberg. jfc

-WRs - Cedric Wilson has been dissappointing no doubt. Does anyone know though? Has he been getting open? I mean our studs will obviously get the lionshare. But I'm ready to see Easy E get some action.

-I expect the TE blocking wouldve been better with Smythe playing. I think Michael Mayer next year could do great things for our offense. Sure would be nice to have those 2 first round picks.. too many ways we could go

-LBs. Tindall needs to get experience out there. These dudes mostly arent good, but hey at least we got some pressure this game. The DL (Wilkins especially) was very good today.

-DBs played well for a long time, but it got to be too much and the game was out of hand. You know JJ is gonna get his, just sucks X got roasted. With Needham going down, Kohou needs to get healthy to man the slot. Crossen has had some good plays too, and Iggy even stepped up. So our depth is doing okay, BUT, I do worry about the health of our 2 main guys. We havent even seen Byron Jones yet, how will he look? X appears to lost a step and is he healthy? idk. Someone brought up William Jackson, and I think thats a damn good idea. Bring in more talent, makes byron more expendable next year. I wonder if eventually we could move X to safety, and have him play that Eric Rowe / TE elimanator role

-I'm over Jason Sanders. Bring in competition next year, unlikely we get anyone better this year but he has been frustrating
Click to expand...

I suspect, replacing Fej would have been broadcasting a fake.
 
DZimmer000 said:
Another winnable game……Another disappointing loss. There is way more than enough blame to go around and I’m about to start passing it out. Trigger Warning: A lot of you aren’t going to like this.

QB — The Good: Thompson looked confident and was actually moving the offense despite the inept OL. He had some nice throws and if it wasn’t for a series of 5 penalties and 2 dropped passes in a 7 play span, he would have had us in the lead. The other good news is the injury that knocked him out of the game was his thumb and not his head.

The Bad: Teddy Bridgewater is a below average QB. Today showed that. Admittedly, he got little help from his OL and his Head Coach. But let’s not fool ourselves….He will never lead an NFL a team to the playoffs again. The 2 picks hurt and I highly doubt he and his inconsistent ways are back next year.

The Grade: D -. The offensive line definitely contributes to the bad grade here….. But Teddy Bridgewater is below average and definitely didn’t look ready to play today.

RB’s — The Good: Mostert had 49 yards rushing with a 3.5 yard average, which isn’t horrible. Edmonds had 2 catches for 28 yards to contribute.

The Bad: Edmonds is not running the ball well at all. I cringe every time I see Mostert leave the field to be honest. Ingold is below average as a runner and a blocker. Again, our horrible OL hurts this group… However, we have 4 speed backs on the roster and only Ingold that can get any tough yards….And he’s not that good at it.

The Grade: C - . This is a position that must be addressed in the off season. Today was not great. Mostert is really the only guy I’d keep. He keeps running hard behind a putrid OL…. But we need a guy that can bang it in there and consistently get the tough yards.

WR’s — The Good: Hill again proves how good he is with 12 Catches for 177 yards. Waddle gets 129 yards on 6 catches for a decent game.

The Bad: Sherfield was the only other receiver with a catch. He had 1 for 6 yards. Waddle with an incredibly ill timed fumble. We are a 2 receiver team. That’s it.

The Grade: C +. We need our other receivers to take some pressure off Hill and Waddle. Thank God for Tyreek Hill or this wouldn’t have been a close game.

TE’s — The Good: GESICKI!! The square peg of the offense finally gets put into the square hole. Nice game from him. 6 catches for 69 yards and 2 TD’s. I’m a Gesicki fan. Period.

The Bad: Much like the receivers, not one other TE caught a ball. The Run blocking was not good either.

The Grade: C . This grade is 100% attributable to Mike Gesicki’s efforts.

OL — The Good: 😐

The Bad: Well…. History repeats itself again. This OL’s effort today was PATHETIC. Little should retire right now. Grier’s buddy Eichenberg should consider being a shoe salesman and Brandon Shell??? Where the **** did we find this clown? Someone remind me. Pass Blocking was an actual joke today. Our OL made the Vikings look like the 85 Bears today. 6 total sacks and 14 QB hits?? That’s 20 plays where our QB was crushed. 20 PLAYS!! Pathetic.

The Grade: F . Again. This is getting really annoying.

DL — The Good: Nice sack at a great time for Raekwon Davis. Wilkins was good all day. This unit played winning football for 90% of the day…….

The Bad: The 10% that they didn’t play great came at the end of the game when we needed stops. Our DL got moved on 2 crucial plays that allowed Cook to go for 6 and then 53 yards and crushed us.

The Grade: B - . This unit got no help from the offense really. Sad. They played well all day. This loss is not really this unit’s fault.

LB’s — The Good: Phillips had half a sack and some good pressure. Ingram had a couple pressures. Roberts had 1.5 sacks. Not bad.

The Bad: Ingram cannot cover anyone. Baker with a missed tackle on Cook’s 53 Yarder.

The Grade: C . Some Good today and some bad. Regardless, this unit along with the rest of the defense deserved better. Our offense let them down.

DB’s — The Good: Noah Iggy…A guy I typically despise, played well when pressed into service today. Holland had a couple huge hits.

The Bad: X is no longer the Pro Bowler we got used to. Not A great game for him. Needham being lost for the season hurts.

The Grade: C . It would be nice to see a pick again this year. I hope Jones comes back soon.

ST’s — The Good: Morstead averaged 51.2 yards on 6 punts. Including a 63 yard bomb. That’s all.

The Bad: Sanders has become very average very fast. Missing kicks seems to be his thing now. Our coverage units SUCK. Bad day for ST’s.

The Grade: C -. This grade belongs to Morstead. Sanders and the rest of our Coverage guys would have rated an F today.

Coaching — The Good: NOT APPLICABLE.

The Bad: This is where I might piss some people off.

Mike McDaniel a genius? I think not. This loss is on him and his very average staff. You know your 2 starting tackles are out, so do you:

Throw quick slants to help your QB get the ball out of his hands quick? Nope. No slants thrown today.

Move the pocket to keep the opposing DL guessing?? Nope. Didn’t happen by design once.

How about a Jet Sweep or 2 to keep the defense honest?? Nope. Not once.

How about the RPO with either Skyler or Teddy? Nope.

What did we get? WR Bubble screens. Wasn’t there another “Genius” coach that liked to call WR Bubble screens a lot? Oh yeah….Adam Gase.

See what I’m getting at? 2 point conversion try after the late touchdown?? Really?? I don’t agree with anyone that says McDaniel is a genius. I just haven’t seen evidence of it. Boyer isn’t much better….He insists on dropping Ingram into coverage and that worked not once in 5 tries that I saw. Stupid. Danny Crossman’s Special Teams unit? Average would be a good day. How about Matt Applebaum’s OL? Easily one of the worst in this league.

This is where I blame Grier as well. How many times do we have to see our OL a look like they have no idea how to play football before something gets done.

The Grade: F!! 2 games in a row that I blame our coaching staff.

The Conclusion: We cannot keep our QB’s healthy. It’s beyond pathetic at this point. As of right now, I highly doubt we make the playoffs. I mean…..We’re now 2 games behind the Bills, 1.5 games behind the Jets and we’re tied for last place in our division with the Patriots. It’s getting harder and harder to see the light at the end of the tunnel and our “Genius” HC isn’t helping.
Click to expand...
You should cut the guy a little slack instead of going suicidal. It's only his six-game as a head coach give the guy a chance to learn. If were in the same place in December then you've earned the right crying complain. Right now you're just being a bad fan! Support the team you love.
 
where's th'fish said:
The 2-point conversion is just good math. Let's assume you have a 50% chance of converting. Case A: You convert. If you score another TD, you kick the PA and now you're winning. Case B: You miss. If you score another TD, you go for 2 again. You have a 50% chance again. If you make it, you're tied, so nothing lost. If you miss, then you're screwed.

Totals: 50% of the time you're winning. 25% you're tied. 25% you're losing.

Like I said, good math.
Click to expand...
Your math makes sense but you also need to factor in the much lower probability of success (as much as 50% lower) of a 2 point conversion.
 
Ikema said:
You should cut the guy a little slack instead of going suicidal. It's only his six-game as a head coach give the guy a chance to learn. If were in the same place in December then you've earned the right crying complain. Right now you're just being a bad fan! Support the team you love.
Click to expand...
I can support the team I love and still be critical of coaching mistakes by what is supposed to be a football genius. I have never said I want him fired or anything like that….I’m just questioning decisions he’s made that I wholeheartedly disagree with. And yes, I question his “genius”. It doesn’t mean I don’t support the team.
 
The play calling given the personnel limitations we had was mind boggling.

Just drop the QB back over and over again. Nothing schemed open, no adherence to running the ball. The coach is out of his depth at the moment and the reliance on qb1 is troubling to say the least - as are the constant penalties we are taking on offense.

I think mcd can turn this around but what it is right now it is not looking promising. The only somewhat competent unit on the team is the holdover from last season.
 
teemu7 said:
The play calling given the personnel limitations we had was mind boggling.

Just drop the QB back over and over again. Nothing schemed open, no adherence to running the ball. The coach is out of his depth at the moment and the reliance on qb1 is troubling to say the least - as are the constant penalties we are taking on offense.

I think mcd can turn this around but what it is right now it is not looking promising. The only somewhat competent unit on the team is the holdover from last season.
Click to expand...
100% correct in my opinion. I could not agree with you more.
 
teemu7 said:
The play calling given the personnel limitations we had was mind boggling.

Just drop the QB back over and over again. Nothing schemed open, no adherence to running the ball. The coach is out of his depth at the moment and the reliance on qb1 is troubling to say the least - as are the constant penalties we are taking on offense.

I think mcd can turn this around but what it is right now it is not looking promising. The only somewhat competent unit on the team is the holdover from last season.
Click to expand...

DZimmer000 said:
100% correct in my opinion. I could not agree with you more.
Click to expand...

What???? They put up 454yards of offense with the 2nd and 3rd string QB.

Literally the exact opposite of what you’re talking about. Nothing schemed open? Did we watch the same game?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom