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1st Day of Free Agency Review

Kyndig

Kyndig

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Losses:

Avg - Vikings - $20 million, 2 years, $14 million guaranteed. This one hurts, I feel like we could’ve paid him that, and he reunites with Flores.

Wilkins - Raiders - $110 million, 4 years, $82 million Guaranteed. Guaranteed money is $20.5 per year. He’s going to wreck havoc playing with Crosby. I wish him well, he got his bag, but honestly I’m okay with it. Too much to pay for a Defensive Tackle. You can’t pay everybody.

Hunt - Panthers - 5 years, $100 million, first two years $44 million guaranteed. Once again, good for him. $22 million per year (which is the guaranteed money) per is too much to pay for a guard. Got his bag, wish him well.

Brandon Jones - Broncos - 3 years, $22.5 million, $12 million Guaranteed. That’s $4 million per guaranteed, he’ll replace Simmons who would’ve cost the Broncos a lot more. Lots of Safties on the market, good for Brandon Jones, but he wouldn’t be worth that to the Dolphins.

Projected compensatory Picks:

Wilkins - 3rd Rounder
Hunt - 3rd Rounder
Jones - 5th Rounder ???


Cuts to save Cap space:

Ogbah, DT - Cap Savings: $13.7 million, Dead Cap Space $4 Million
Howard CB - Cap Savings: $18.5 MIllion (after June 1st) Dead Cap Space $7.4 Million
Baker Inside Linebacker - Cap Savings: $9.8 Million, Dead Cap Space: $4.9 Million
Keon Crossen CB - Cap Savings: $2.99 Million, Dead Cap Space: $0

Restructures to Save Cap Space:

Terron Armstead: $8.4 Million in cap savings (estimated) From $20.8 million to estimated $12.4 million
Jalen Ramsey : $19.9 Million Cap Savings with $25 million bonus to be spread out over the next 5 years.
Zack Sieler, Durham Smythe, & Alec Ingold: $8.9 million in cap savings Ingold and Sieler are signed through 2026 and Smythe through 2025. All three players now have two void years at the end of their contracts.

Total of $37 Million in cap savings due to restructures with up to another $12.54 million available if you restructure Tyreek Hills contract without extending him, more if you did extend him.

Free Agency Signings:

Jonnu Smith - TE - $10 million, 2 years. An excellent pass catching tight end who will improve the passing game and allow Miami to actually pass out of 12 personnel package.

Aaron Brewer - Center - $21 Million, 3 years. Replacement for Conner Williams. $27 years old, good center, very mobile will fit well in this system. We probably won’t end up drafting JPJ now. Still have 2 more holes to fill on the interior offensive line and we need a swing tackle if Kendall Lamm isn’t going to return.

Jordyn Brooks - LB - $30 Million, 3 years. good productive player, can rush the passer a bit. Excellent in coverage. Upgrade over Baker!

Anthony Walker - LB - ? 1 year - Nice Rotational player for our linebacking corps.

Daviyon Nixon - DT - $985k 1 year, Competition for the rotation at D Tackle

Isaiah Mack - DT $1 million, 1 year, Competition for the Rotation at D Tackle

Re-signs:
-Nik Needham CB - Competion for Kohou in the slot
-Elijah Campbell S - Meh
-Robert Jones - G - Competition & Depth
-Jake Bailey - P - Meh

Projected 1st & second round picks:

OT & DT Or WR OT, or Edge OT with the idea that the OT will kick inside to play left guard to learn from Armstead as understudy to replace him in 2025. They can really go BPA here or even trade back if they can find someone who wants to trade up, But, who knows?

Projected cap space for 2025 - $71 million. (Note, this doesn't take in the can kicking down the road from 2024 restructures, nor Tua’s new contract, but we should be in reasonable shape in any case, it’s all manageable)

Some losses and some additions & replacements. Team will also have a bump in cap space post June 1st when the X cut kicks in. Future not as glum as it may seem, lots more work to do, this was only the first day of legal tampering as they call it. 2025 looks like we will have plenty of money to spend/cap space available as well as a good number of draft picks, (1, 2, & 3 3rd round picks including compensatory picks a 4th, 3 5ths, & 2 7ths) 11 picks in total, so that’s interesting information.
 
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Bob512 said:
Nice recap! Thanks for putting this together

We aren't done yet.

I do find it interesting the emphasis on the LB position. I'm thrilled to see us making some moves in there, but suspect this is also a huge focus of our new DC Weaver and his plan for the defense
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Well, we did lose Jerome baker and Andrew Van Ginkel. I imagine we aren’t done there yet. There’s some Chatter that Patrick Queen could be in play here and that he might not be as expensive as one might think. Then there’s a few others like Clowney (although there may be a bad taste in the mouth from the last time he turned us down when we explored a trade for him). But, yes, lots of work to do still…
 
Kyndig said:
Well, we did lose Jerome baker and Andrew Van Ginkel. I imagine we aren’t done there yet. There’s some Chatter that Patrick Queen could be in play here and that he might not be as expensive as one might think. Then there’s a few others like Clowney (although there may be a bad taste in the mouth from the last time he turned us down when we explored a trade for him). But, yes, lots of work to do still…
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Yup.....I see Walker and Brooks as replacements for Baker and some depth for a rotation.....I think we still need to replace AVG with his ability to rush the QB....especially early in the season while Chubb and Phillips are still getting healthy. There will be some availability to do so in days 2 and 3.

It will be interesting to see if we re-sign Williams on offense. Both he and Brewer also can play guard and coming off the injury he will likely be inexpensive.
 
Bob512 said:
Yup.....I see Walker and Brooks as replacements for Baker and some depth for a rotation.....I think we still need to replace AVG with his ability to rush the QB....especially early in the season while Chubb and Phillips are still getting healthy. There will be some availability to do so in days 2 and 3.

It will be interesting to see if we re-sign Williams on offense. Both he and Brewer also can play guard and coming off the injury he will likely be inexpensive.
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I doubt we resign williams. There's scuttlebutt that all is not kosher between he and the FO. We may sign another free agent Lineman or 2, and draft an offensive Tackle?
 
So, let's see where our cap stands after we see how these contracts are structured. I wondered if we are still under
 
Kyndig said:
Well, we did lose Jerome baker and Andrew Van Ginkel. I imagine we aren’t done there yet. There’s some Chatter that Patrick Queen could be in play here and that he might not be as expensive as one might think. Then there’s a few others like Clowney (although there may be a bad taste in the mouth from the last time he turned us down when we explored a trade for him). But, yes, lots of work to do still…
Click to expand...

Unless Queen is much cheaper than expected, I don't think Miami would bring in him and Brooks (and Walker), when they already have Long.

There wasn't really an AVG type of OLB in Baltimore's D last year. Their OLB's were more like true DE's in size. Chubb and Phillips when healthy fit the archetype. Ogbah actually fits this D better than the Fangio D. But, Clowney would make a lot of sense. He had his best season since his early days in Houston.

But, I think Miami will be targeting big, athletic edges who have underperformed as pass rushers. Baltimore was all about chaos up front in 2023. Was looking at my FA notes, but I haven't updated the Edges since the move from Fangio to Weaver. Going to try to look at that today.
 
j-off-her-doll said:
Unless Queen is much cheaper than expected, I don't think Miami would bring in him and Brooks (and Walker), when they already have Long.

There wasn't really an AVG type of OLB in Baltimore's D last year. Their OLB's were more like true DE's in size. Chubb and Phillips when healthy fit the archetype. Ogbah actually fits this D better than the Fangio D. But, Clowney would make a lot of sense. He had his best season since his early days in Houston.

But, I think Miami will be targeting big, athletic edges who have underperformed as pass rushers. Baltimore was all about chaos up front in 2023. Was looking at my FA notes, but I haven't updated the Edges since the move from Fangio to Weaver. Going to try to look at that today.
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yeah, you're right about Queen.

Clowney makes sense, but there may be bad blood there from last attempt to trade for him. I hope not, but there are rumors.

I could also see us re-sign Davis, and even look for another Nose tackle, space eater. Just as a comparison to the Ravens, and they like to rotate their front 7. Whereas last year Sieler & Davis took up most of the snaps and hardly rotated at all.
 
Wilkins $27m per year
Hunt $20m per year
B Jones $7.5m per year

3 guys it would have been good to keep but not on that money. Glad we avoided those contracts. Benefits will be realised in 2025 when we have plenty of draft picks (finally) and cap room. We have Holland, Waddle and Phillips coming up for renewal so will need some flexibility.
 
Kyndig said:
yeah, you're right about Queen.

Clowney makes sense, but there may be bad blood there from last attempt to trade for him. I hope not, but there are rumors.

I could also see us re-sign Davis, and even look for another Nose tackle, space eater. Just as a comparison to the Ravens, and they like to rotate their front 7. Whereas last year Sieler & Davis took up most of the snaps and hardly rotated at all.
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Just realized I forgot about Van Noy, who is similar to AVG size/how he plays.

I do hope they attack DT and Edge with numbers, rather than prioritizing one or two guys. Here's a list of Edge FA's that are fits based on body type and physical tools. Some of the names will immediately draw a, Eww he sucks. But, Clowney and Oweh would have drawn similar reactions prior to 2023.

Jadeveon Clowney - 1y/9m
Marcus Davenport - 1y/5m
Tyquan Lewis - 2y/12m
Rasheem Green - ?
Dante Fowler Jr - 1y/2.5M
Clelin Ferrell - 1y/2.75M
Yetur Gross-Matos - ?
 
j-off-her-doll said:
Just realized I forgot about Van Noy, who is similar to AVG size/how he plays.

I do hope they attack DT and Edge with numbers, rather than prioritizing one or two guys. Here's a list of Edge FA's that are fits based on body type and physical tools. Some of the names will immediately draw a, Eww he sucks. But, Clowney and Oweh would have drawn similar reactions prior to 2023.

Jadeveon Clowney - 1y/9m
Marcus Davenport - 1y/5m
Tyquan Lewis - 2y/12m
Rasheem Green - ?
Dante Fowler Jr - 1y/2.5M
Clelin Ferrell - 1y/2.75M
Yetur Gross-Matos - ?
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Clowney was $2.5 million last year, you think he’d cost $9m? he did have 10 sacks I think.

I really liked Van Noy, Grier might have pissed him off when he left. I know he wasn’t happy, not sure if Flo or Grier or both were the cause.

Picking up two of those edge players you listed (not including Clowney at $9m per) might be doable and would be sweet.

The Baltimore scheme rotates heavily. they also have always had nosetackles (Siragusa, Haloti Nata, and now Michael Pierce who is a 355 pounder). I can see us bringing back Raekwon Davis and signing and or drafting a big nose tackle. Maybe Sweat? I think you need that big space eater to make that scheme really sing. Command double teams, and let your edges fly and be so stout vs the runs up the middle.
 
Kyndig said:
Clowney was $2.5 million last year, you think he’d cost $9m? he did have 10 sacks I think.

I really liked Van Noy, Grier might have pissed him off when he left. I know he wasn’t happy, not sure if Flo or Grier or both were the cause.

Picking up two of those edge players you listed (not including Clowney at $9m per) might be doable and would be sweet.

The Baltimore scheme rotates heavily. they also have always had nosetackles (Siragusa, Haloti Nata, and now Michael Pierce who is a 355 pounder). I can see us bringing back Raekwon Davis and signing and or drafting a big nose tackle. Maybe Sweat? I think you need that big space eater to make that scheme really sing. Command double teams, and let your edges fly.
Click to expand...

These are Brad Spielberger's valuations, and he's the best person at predicting contracts that I've come across.

I think you need the PFF basic membership to access this, but this is where I'm getting the numbers.

NFL Free Agent Rankings | PFF

NFL free agent rankings with analysis, projected salaries, PFF grades and PFF WAR.
www.pff.com www.pff.com
 
They are still going to need to do some more restructures to get cap compliant. They currently sit at 3.6 under and that is without Armsteads 8.4 restructure, leaving them about 12 mil under. This 12 mil in excess cap $$ is without yesterday’s signings of Brewer $7 mil, Brooks $10mil and Walker Jr. possibly $4 mil, that’s another roughly 20mil added to their cap number. By my math they need to come up with another roughly 8 mil to be cap compliant.

There is another $26 mil in restructures that could become available if Hill and Chubb are restructured, leaving about $16 mil left to finish up free agency. If the Dolphins do this they are kicking about $63 mil into future years.
 
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