A General Observation On Drafting Players And Paying Them

[phinsforlife]

Many people will say, fine to let Wilkins walk, no way I am paying a defensive tackle that kind of money. There is almost nobody who is saying Wilkins isn't good or a top of the market DT, they are just saying the position is not worth the money.

Fine. Reasonable argument.

BUT then why ever use a first round pick on a position where the positional importance is not high enough such that you won't want to pay the player, who in Wilkins case has actually exceeded the expectations for where he was drafted? Seems kind of dumb, right? If this is the issue, a defensive tackle should never, ever, ever be taken in the first round.

I would say the same thing about running backs.

Never use a high pick on a position if you won't want to pay for the position when the rookie deal is up. If the position isn't worth that much, the position is one that a first round pick should NEVER be spent on.

If you disagree with my point, please tell me why we are letting Wilkins go? If Wilkins was a QB, and he performed at this level, would they be letting him walk over ~$20mm a year? If you say defensive tackles, like RBs are a dime a dozen and can be found easily on the open market, then why use a 1st round pick on them? Therefore you end up back in the same place, a positional value argument.

Which leads me to the next point, we are rumored to be using our first round pick this year on a Center or a Guard, which also give or take falls into the same bucket of positional value as DT or RB. Same mistake?

Of course, Wilkins was the first player taken as part of this whole rebuild. This whole situation, just soooo Dolphins. Wilkins is the first 1st rounder we got right in ages, and out the door he goes, because they don't want to pay for the position they drafted the player to play. Unreal!!!

 

[Manning]

I personally am not a fan of drafting a DT or rb in the first round unless it’s a generational talent like Donald or mccafrey.
And I wouldn’t say it was ages before Wilkins that we hit on a first rounder. We hit on Tunsil and Minkah a couple yrs prior

 

[Feverdream]

For the most part, I would agree.

I wouldn't take a DT in the first very often, certainly not in the top half of the round. Yes, there are exceptions, but as I've argued before, "If the player has to end up as an elite player to justify drafting him early, then it's a bad bet".
I just would not take a RB, a TE, a Saftey... any of the cheap positions... a DT is a more important position than those, but as we are seeing... keeping an elite DT is probably more expensive than it is worth.
I'd take a Center... I'd struggle with taking a pure Guard, though would take a guy who might look like he could play Tackle or Center, but projects better to Guard.

There can be exceptions, but when I see some fanboy squealing about some college player, and calling him a generational talent, I usually shudder because most so-called generational talents... aren't.

 

[Atila]

There is no hard fast rule to this stuff. It’s not even about the position, it’s about the teams current situation in this moment.

If we had the cap space, the team and fans would all be clamoring to keep him. But Miami simply has too many needs and is already invested at DT with Sieler on a really great deal.

Did you forget the part that Miami needs to spend $30-40mil on IOL starters and depth? We have bigger fish to fry (pun).

 

[The Ghost]

Many people will say, fine to let Wilkins walk, no way I am paying a defensive tackle that kind of money. There is almost nobody who is saying Wilkins isn't good or a top of the market DT, they are just saying the position is not worth the money.

Fine. Reasonable argument.

BUT then why ever use a first round pick on a position where the positional importance is not high enough such that you won't want to pay the player, who in Wilkins case has actually exceeded the expectations for where he was drafted? Seems kind of dumb, right? If this is the issue, a defensive tackle should never, ever, ever be taken in the first round.

I would say the same thing about running backs.

Never use a high pick on a position if you won't want to pay for the position when the rookie deal is up. If the position isn't worth that much, the position is one that a first round pick should NEVER be spent on.

If you disagree with my point, please tell me why we are letting Wilkins go? If Wilkins was a QB, and he performed at this level, would they be letting him walk over ~$20mm a year? If you say defensive tackles, like RBs are a dime a dozen and can be found easily on the open market, then why use a 1st round pick on them? Therefore you end up back in the same place, a positional value argument.

Which leads me to the next point, we are rumored to be using our first round pick this year on a Center or a Guard, which also give or take falls into the same bucket of positional value as DT or RB. Same mistake?

Of course, Wilkins was the first player taken as part of this whole rebuild. This whole situation, just soooo Dolphins. Wilkins is the first 1st rounder we got right in ages, and out the door he goes, because they don't want to pay for the position they drafted the player to play. Unreal!!!

Your sleeping on the fact that they can’t re-sign Wilkins, not that they don’t want to.

They didn’t draft Willins planning on never re-signing him. They’ve merely operated with a year to year philosophy instead of having a greater plan.

CW is going to get the money CW is worth. The time to resign him was after the 2021 season but the FO chose to take the value route and let him play out his rookie deal because they thought 2022 and 2023 was the window of opportunity to win.

We got Wilkins on a discounted contract for 5 years. He should’ve been traded before that contract expired.

 

[Springveldt]

I actually agree with you and if you look at how the Dolphins have used their 1st round picks since Wilkins then Grier probably now agrees with you as well.

From what I’ve read Wilkins is looking for $27M a season, you can’t pay a DT that unless they are an elite pass rusher as well. Not a one season, contract year good pass rusher but elite. I think if Wilkins was wanting $22M or under then he would still be a Dolphin and even then I’m not sure you should be allocating that much of the cap to a DT unless he can get pressures like a top DE.

 

[ANUFan]

I actually agree with you and if you look at how the Dolphins have used their 1st round picks since Wilkins then Grier probably now agrees with you as well.

From what I’ve read Wilkins is looking for $27M a season, you can’t pay a DT that unless they are an elite pass rusher as well. Not a one season, contract year good pass rusher but elite. I think if Wilkins was wanting $22M or under then he would still be a Dolphin and even then I’m not sure you should be allocating that much of the cap to a DT unless he can get pressures like a top DE.

There’s no way he’s asking for $27M?

 

[Bob512]

There’s no way he’s asking for $27M?

I've read two "insider" comments so far (for what they are worth) that Jones in KC is wanting $30M per season. I doubt either will get it, but there will be some upward movement to the numbers we have been batting around.

I haven't seen anything specific on what Wilkins is asking for or thinks he is worth.....so it is all just speculation

 

[MiamiTide]

I personally am not a fan of drafting a DT or rb in the first round unless it’s a generational talent like Donald or mccafrey.
And I wouldn’t say it was ages before Wilkins that we hit on a first rounder. We hit on Tunsil and Minkah a couple yrs prior

But NOBODY knew Donald was going to be generational… everyone knocked him down for his size… it’s hard to tell when someone will pan out to be “generational”

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Many people will say, fine to let Wilkins walk, no way I am paying a defensive tackle that kind of money. There is almost nobody who is saying Wilkins isn't good or a top of the market DT, they are just saying the position is not worth the money.

Fine. Reasonable argument.

BUT then why ever use a first round pick on a position where the positional importance is not high enough such that you won't want to pay the player, who in Wilkins case has actually exceeded the expectations for where he was drafted? Seems kind of dumb, right? If this is the issue, a defensive tackle should never, ever, ever be taken in the first round.

I would say the same thing about running backs.

Never use a high pick on a position if you won't want to pay for the position when the rookie deal is up. If the position isn't worth that much, the position is one that a first round pick should NEVER be spent on.

If you disagree with my point, please tell me why we are letting Wilkins go? If Wilkins was a QB, and he performed at this level, would they be letting him walk over ~$20mm a year? If you say defensive tackles, like RBs are a dime a dozen and can be found easily on the open market, then why use a 1st round pick on them? Therefore you end up back in the same place, a positional value argument.

Which leads me to the next point, we are rumored to be using our first round pick this year on a Center or a Guard, which also give or take falls into the same bucket of positional value as DT or RB. Same mistake?

Of course, Wilkins was the first player taken as part of this whole rebuild. This whole situation, just soooo Dolphins. Wilkins is the first 1st rounder we got right in ages, and out the door he goes, because they don't want to pay for the position they drafted the player to play. Unreal!!!

In general, I agree, but there are a few variables. A team that consistently gets to the conference championship may have so few holes a 'lesser' position may be a top need. Or, as Manning says, a "generational" talent, and, even then, it's an educated guess (e.g., Johnny Football). I'd also add the drafting team THINKS the guy will be an immediate starter.

Again, agree in general, but reality can muddy the water

 

[Etuoo33]

It's pretty simple, we can't pay him to set the market. There are some reports that there has been offers on the table for the last 2 years . CW will get paid, and some team will probably get shafted after the contract runs a couple of years. That shouldn't preclude us ever taking a DT in the first round either, just points to the importance of signing talent early (like Hunt). We had an idea that this would be a problem when we had all those first and second round choices as they have to get paid eventually, unless they wash out. This is the ugly business side of the NFL.

 

[MARINO1384]

I've read two "insider" comments so far (for what they are worth) that Jones in KC is wanting $30M per season. I doubt either will get it, but there will be some upward movement to the numbers we have been batting around.

I haven't seen anything specific on what Wilkins is asking for or thinks he is worth.....so it is all just speculation

Jones was a main reason chiefs won the Super Bowl and were great all year, he’s a future hall of famer, he’s getting 30 million from someone.

 

[Bob512]

Jones was a main reason chiefs won the Super Bowl and were great all year, he’s a future hall of famer, he’s getting 30 million from someone.

You could be right....he is certainly elite. However $30M is a lot of money for a DT, so will be interesting to see where and what he lands at

 

[Danny]

Everything is case by case......most of the time with our top pick I'd want QB/WR/OT/CB/Edge but regardless of what people might say, needs matters........first you get your "must"........then you get your "needs".....then you get your "wants" and then you have your "luxury" picks.......with only 6 picks unless we trade back you better get what you need before you get your wants and really, we don’t have the luxury for a luxury pick this year.

 

[MARINO1384]

You could be right....he is certainly elite. However $30M is a lot of money for a DT, so will be interesting to see where and what he lands at

Guys been around 10 sacks a year for the last 6 years or so. If they are getting sacks then they are worth it which is why I don’t think Wilkins is. He had a good year this year until you look and see that 6.5 of his 9 sacks were against the pats,jets and panthers. Think he got lucky with some awful olines in contract year. Throw in his 3-4 bonehead penalties every year and at 24+ million no way. I’ve said before the season he’s a 14-17 a mill year guy. Even after his career year still not going past 20.