A General Observation On Drafting Players And Paying Them

[phinsforlife]

Don’t see why?

2 sacks vs Philly, 1.5 vs Dallas, 1 vs KC also had a forced fumble vs both Philly and KC. Those are some big time performances in big games.
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6.5 of the 11 sacks were against the jets, pats, carolina and washington. 3 of them alone against the jets in one game. also 11 sacks in total is not a giant number. you give up what you did for him, you are hoping for 15 plus!

 

[Kyndig]

This is how I look at it as well. Wilkins had easily his best pass rushing season and if you are going to pay him $24M+ then you are gambling that last season wasn't a fluke and he will continue to produce 9+ sack seasons with 20+ QB hits. If he doesn't then he isn't worth the money.

Looking at his stats on overthecap he has had 20.5 sacks and 50 QB hits in his 5 seasons and 81 games. 9 sacks and 23 QB hits come from last season. Compare that to the other top DL's last 5 seasons who are paid over $20M per season.

	Sacks	QB Hits
Aaron Donald (76 games)	51.5	109
Chris Jones (76 games)	51.5	123
Quinnen Williams (73 games)	33	80
Jeffrey Simmons (69 games)	26.5	56
Dexter Lawrence (87 games)	21	79

Meanwhile Ed Oliver (who I think is right beside Wilkins) signed for $17M per year last season. He has 24 sacks and 58 QB hits in 78 games over the last 5 years.

Nearly half of Wilkins pass rushing stats came last season (like Daron Payne the year before) so if you are going to pay him 85% of Chris Jones or Aaron Donald money then you better hope he keeps up not only the sacks but especially the QB hits to make it worth it.

Yes, this. Quite right.

 

[Kyndig]

Agree with everything but a premium pick for Ramsey. We gave up a 3rd and Hunter Long for Ramsey.

I don’t know if Baker is gone for good. He might settle for the pay cut eventually. But he is replaceable. But I won’t forget him trotting back out there with the bum knee.

I dunno, that 3rd round pick would be nice this year would it not? Not saying Ramsey isn't worth it, I was simply pointing out that you can't have it both ways. You either build through the draft, or through trades or some combo of both, and each is a different model. All I was saying is the argument of "Shouldn't we re-sign our best draft picks?" depends which model you are following, and which draft pick you know what I mean?

 

[AvogadrosNumber]

Grier drafts the 5 year Senior DT meanwhile his teammate Dexter Lawrence, 2 years younger, gets drafted 4 picks later.

You pay the All-Pro Lawrence, he’s 26. Wilkins at 28 is vastly overrated in comparison.

That is my issue with Grier - faced with a 50/50 decision he always chooses the wrong side. It’s uncanny

Lawrence vs Wilkins
Leo Chantal vs Channing Tindall
Roquan Smith vs Bradley Chubb
Creed Humphrey vs Liam Eichenberg
Herbert vs Tua
Trading up for Waddle vs Staying out at 12

The list goes on and on and on …

 

[39wildman]

Grier can't draft is real problem. Yes he hit now and than but he cover it up by bring in high price free agent. This is result off it.. Dolphins can't afford give Tua 50 million a yr either.

 

[CaneHammer]

I dunno, that 3rd round pick would be nice this year would it not? Not saying Ramsey isn't worth it, I was simply pointing out that you can't have it both ways. You either build through the draft, or through trades or some combo of both, and each is a different model. All I was saying is the argument of "Shouldn't we re-sign our best draft picks?" depends which model you are following, and which draft pick you know what I mean?

No worries. The third for Ramsey is easy decision for me. I look at Ramsey as a cornerstone to the defense. I want him till he can’t play corner anymore. And would see how he worked at safety before moving on.

 

[MARINO1384]

6.5 of the 11 sacks were against the jets, pats, carolina and washington. 3 of them alone against the jets in one game. also 11 sacks in total is not a giant number. you give up what you did for him, you are hoping for 15 plus!

Still had 4.5 sacks in 3 big games and probably would have made an impact vs buffalo if our coach wasn’t an idiot. You’re being ridiculous expecting 15 sacks. He’s the 11th highest paid edge rushers. There’s maybe 5 guys a year that cross 15 sack mark.

 

[Mr Fan]

Many people will say, fine to let Wilkins walk, no way I am paying a defensive tackle that kind of money. There is almost nobody who is saying Wilkins isn't good or a top of the market DT, they are just saying the position is not worth the money.

Fine. Reasonable argument.

BUT then why ever use a first round pick on a position where the positional importance is not high enough such that you won't want to pay the player, who in Wilkins case has actually exceeded the expectations for where he was drafted? Seems kind of dumb, right? If this is the issue, a defensive tackle should never, ever, ever be taken in the first round.

I would say the same thing about running backs.

Never use a high pick on a position if you won't want to pay for the position when the rookie deal is up. If the position isn't worth that much, the position is one that a first round pick should NEVER be spent on.

If you disagree with my point, please tell me why we are letting Wilkins go? If Wilkins was a QB, and he performed at this level, would they be letting him walk over ~$20mm a year? If you say defensive tackles, like RBs are a dime a dozen and can be found easily on the open market, then why use a 1st round pick on them? Therefore you end up back in the same place, a positional value argument.

Which leads me to the next point, we are rumored to be using our first round pick this year on a Center or a Guard, which also give or take falls into the same bucket of positional value as DT or RB. Same mistake?

Of course, Wilkins was the first player taken as part of this whole rebuild. This whole situation, just soooo Dolphins. Wilkins is the first 1st rounder we got right in ages, and out the door he goes, because they don't want to pay for the position they drafted the player to play. Unreal!!!

The biggest problem that fans often get into the they want the guy who can do it all. The problem is they have costs, high draft pick or big contract, the real model should be finding the guys that let us do what we want.

Example: Wilkens wants 27M per year (holy crap in a bucket), for what exactly? 7-10 sacks and good run stuffer (no way, he is not Tim Bowens). Ok, how about 5-10M for a good stuffer and putting the extra money into guys like Phillips/Chubb/++ who are supposed to be your pass rushers moving a couple of less expensive hybrid guys in when extra rush is needed.

I've always believed in Parcells planet theory on players, only so many guys have the talent to play in the NFL and only so many of them are BIG. Thus they are more scarce, BUT you cannot get hung up on one player regardless of how big and special he might be as players get hurt. They get old, they get too rich to want the pain of the NFL. Just get us a couple of toilet clogging DT's and hustlers like Sieler and we will be fine at the position.

Jimmy Johnson only drafted impact players and impact positions in the first and second round. We need to do the same as well. OG, is an easier position to fill than CB or OT. Even a center is more difficult to fill than OG as he has to have the intelligence to make the line calls.

Find guys who fit what we do and accomplish what we need to do (Marino's OL wasn't a great run blocking line, but they sure could pass block). This league is all about passing and running wide. Build the team accordingly (god that hurts to write.....I miss at least a little power football).

 

[gofins60]

Lots of good comments here. IMO, Grier has a poor way of building the Dolphins. Most know that you win in the trenches, but Grier refuses to build from the trenches out. What sense does it make to draft an injured QB at #5, and then by the time he's able to start, you make him play behind the worst o-line in the league? And this was even after having two drafts with a ton of picks and cap space! Also, they seem to always open camp with an overabundance of DBs, WRs, RBs, and occasionally TEs, and then can't understand why they have o-line issues every year. Grier (and possibly the HCs) appears to want to build from the outside in, instead of from the inside out, which is why Miami's QB never has much time, and why their front four on defense can't generate pressure like some top defenses can.

Bottom line, while Grier may or may not draft well, the way he's building the team isn't working. You should build through the draft, and as those players age or become too expensive, you replace them through the draft. And, with some exceptions, you shouldn't have to make a rookie start, you need to always look ahead. If you know that in 2025 your RT for example is going to become a Free Agent and is going to want more than you think the position is worth, then you draft his replacement in 2024, giving the rookie some time to get acclimated before having to start. Free Agency should be used sparingly to fill holes, and maybe if a top player is available at a good price.

Of course, some players you'll want to retain, especially at certain positions, so the GM will need a plan as to which positions are most important, and how much they are worth in the overall scheme of the team with the salary cap. It's okay to overpay a bit here and there if those players are making a big impact and helping you win games. With the less important positions, you can keep good players who are willing to accept a reasonable contract and replace those who want too much or aren't as good.

What Grier does however is trade away top picks for high-priced FAs who may or may not make an impact. This is okay, unless you do it too often and it becomes the way you build the team. Then you're hurting your ability to fill holes in the draft, and you're giving money to one player when you could be using that money to retain several other players that you'd like to keep. IOW, Grier is doing a lousy job of building a young, talented roster that can be replenished through the draft with the occasional FAs.

The best way to build through the draft is to be able to draft well and have a plan, especially if you're starting a rebuild. Then, once your roster is set, you can work on improving it little by little every year by using early draft picks on top talent, and by getting reasonably-priced FAs. But first, you need to make sure that you have a strong, solid foundation (trenches) to begin with, and this is where Grier has shown that he is a failure and needs to go.

 

[Marine-O]

Many people will say, fine to let Wilkins walk, no way I am paying a defensive tackle that kind of money. There is almost nobody who is saying Wilkins isn't good or a top of the market DT, they are just saying the position is not worth the money.

Fine. Reasonable argument.

BUT then why ever use a first round pick on a position where the positional importance is not high enough such that you won't want to pay the player, who in Wilkins case has actually exceeded the expectations for where he was drafted? Seems kind of dumb, right? If this is the issue, a defensive tackle should never, ever, ever be taken in the first round.

I would say the same thing about running backs.

Never use a high pick on a position if you won't want to pay for the position when the rookie deal is up. If the position isn't worth that much, the position is one that a first round pick should NEVER be spent on.

If you disagree with my point, please tell me why we are letting Wilkins go? If Wilkins was a QB, and he performed at this level, would they be letting him walk over ~$20mm a year? If you say defensive tackles, like RBs are a dime a dozen and can be found easily on the open market, then why use a 1st round pick on them? Therefore you end up back in the same place, a positional value argument.

Which leads me to the next point, we are rumored to be using our first round pick this year on a Center or a Guard, which also give or take falls into the same bucket of positional value as DT or RB. Same mistake?

Of course, Wilkins was the first player taken as part of this whole rebuild. This whole situation, just soooo Dolphins. Wilkins is the first 1st rounder we got right in ages, and out the door he goes, because they don't want to pay for the position they drafted the player to play. Unreal!!!

In all fairness the DT market blew up in just this past year…so

 

[Mr Fan]

In all fairness the DT market blew up in just this past year…so

Reggie White blew up the DT market decades ago. This is just paying a lot of money for not enough player.

 

[Mello Yello]

I dunno, that 3rd round pick would be nice this year would it not? Not saying Ramsey isn't worth it, I was simply pointing out that you can't have it both ways. You either build through the draft, or through trades or some combo of both, and each is a different model. All I was saying is the argument of "Shouldn't we re-sign our best draft picks?" depends which model you are following, and which draft pick you know what I mean?

Are there really 2 models though or is that not kind of a myth?

I think it's all about generating value (which I think of as a kind of production-to-investment ratio like ROI or WAR). It's virtually impossible to do that outside the draft (where picks are by definition given to you each year for free) when FA requires you pay significant cap dollars and meaningful trades often involve significant picks. In short, steals are rare.

In theory you could build a whole championship-level team out of mostly all hidden gems like Cam Wake but that seems pretty much impossible.

What team built through anything other than the draft outside of maybe bringing in a veteran QB?

 

[gofins60]

Reggie White blew up the DT market decades ago. This is just paying a lot of money for not enough player.

I remember that. Living in Eagles country, it was a big deal. The "Reverend" Reggie White said that he was leaving Philly for Green Bay so that he could help GB's poor inner-city kids. Hah! I don't think anyone actually believed that nonsense... he just wanted more money!

 

[djphinfan]

First I wouldn’t have drafted him. In many defenses, DTs are rotational positions. Which means, tons of money shouldn’t be thrown at it. Suh was a special player. But we didn’t become world beaters by putting him in our defense. That money could have gone to other positions. Give me a mix of space eaters and gap penetrators. Let me spend money on other positions like CB and Edge.

I don’t agree with this philosophy, you’re advocating or settling for one dimensional players.

That’s one of the pros for Wilkins team to get a higher salary, rep count, 3 down player, he does not come off the field so he takes the place of a whole other player.

So the leverage is pay him what that other player would get paid to do his specific role

 

[Highzenga]

Many people will say, fine to let Wilkins walk, no way I am paying a defensive tackle that kind of money. There is almost nobody who is saying Wilkins isn't good or a top of the market DT, they are just saying the position is not worth the money.

Fine. Reasonable argument.

BUT then why ever use a first round pick on a position where the positional importance is not high enough such that you won't want to pay the player, who in Wilkins case has actually exceeded the expectations for where he was drafted? Seems kind of dumb, right? If this is the issue, a defensive tackle should never, ever, ever be taken in the first round.

I would say the same thing about running backs.

Never use a high pick on a position if you won't want to pay for the position when the rookie deal is up. If the position isn't worth that much, the position is one that a first round pick should NEVER be spent on.

If you disagree with my point, please tell me why we are letting Wilkins go? If Wilkins was a QB, and he performed at this level, would they be letting him walk over ~$20mm a year? If you say defensive tackles, like RBs are a dime a dozen and can be found easily on the open market, then why use a 1st round pick on them? Therefore you end up back in the same place, a positional value argument.

Which leads me to the next point, we are rumored to be using our first round pick this year on a Center or a Guard, which also give or take falls into the same bucket of positional value as DT or RB. Same mistake?

Of course, Wilkins was the first player taken as part of this whole rebuild. This whole situation, just soooo Dolphins. Wilkins is the first 1st rounder we got right in ages, and out the door he goes, because they don't want to pay for the position they drafted the player to play. Unreal!!!

With that logic only qb, LT, edge & cb would be picked in the 1st round. Those are the premium positions. In recent years you can add wr as they are making big money. Interestingly, Dt’s have been getting paid a lot the past few years which is why Wilkins is so expensive. The problem is as good as he is, he’s not worth $24 million a year. Yes his sacks went up but his tackles went down. He doesn’t make the kind of impact to justify that salary imo.

I get your point and don’t necessarily disagree but when you are in a rebuild, you have a 4-5 year window. We traded for some big money players to try to win a Super Bowl in that window. Just look at all the high round picks we had and all the big money vets. There has to be some sacrifices