A General Observation On Drafting Players And Paying Them | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

A General Observation On Drafting Players And Paying Them

Bottom line is all of these posts and threads point to one thing - we have a clown running the show at GM in Grier. That may sound a bit harsh but think back a few years ago when we’re sitting with multiple first round picks in two straight draft and look what we ended up with. We also had a huge amount of camp space to go grab free agents, yet he still gives up multiple picks for Tyreek and Chubb, and we still can’t win a playoff game. He will probably blame the players or injuries, but the bottom line still remains the same. If you look at the players, we could’ve drafted as well as signed in free agency our team would be much more successful. he missed on taking cd lamb, as well as Jefferson at wide receiver, and if he had made just one of those moves we would not have had to give up two first round, picks to take Waddle. We could have had a combo of Chase, Sewell, Micah… plus he trades up for Eichenberg when he could have had Creed Humphrey.

I am beginning to think the reason he stockpiles draft picks is that he knows he cannot select the right player based on evaluations so he figures the more shots he gets the better the chance he might hit one.. As it stands right now we still need to pick up multiple offensive lineman despite picking several the last couple years, and we still need defensive backs, despite trading for, and drafting them in the early rounds. I think that is proof enough where the problem lies with our team.
You could go all the way back to the beginning of this rebuild in 2019. The Dolphins were on the clock at 48 and Grier traded down with the Saints. Saints take C Eric McCoy. McCoy was a projected day 1 starter in round 2, not a reach. That’s the play for a rebuilding team, the trenches. Instead, Grier turns around and sends the Saints pick he just received and another later pick in a trade to the Cardinals for Rosen? Rosen turned out pretty bad but even if he had been a diamond in the rough, how were the Dolphins going to be able to make an accurate assessment on him when he had no talent around him as a Dolphin?
 
You could go all the way back to the beginning of this rebuild in 2019. The Dolphins were on the clock at 48 and Grier traded down with the Saints. Saints take C Eric McCoy. McCoy was a projected day 1 starter in round 2, not a reach. That’s the play for a rebuilding team, the trenches. Instead, Grier turns around and sends the Saints pick he just received and another later pick in a trade to the Cardinals for Rosen? Rosen turned out pretty bad but even if he had been a diamond in the rough, how were the Dolphins going to be able to make an accurate assessment on him when he had no talent around him as a Dolphin?
Rosen was a buy low risk. Getting a QB for a late second rounder one year removed from being a top 10 pick wasn't terrible resource management. The issue was the team decided to start a 37 year old journeyman instead. Team should have trotted out Rosen for 16 games won one game and then kicked the rebuild into full swing in 2020.

Regarding the topic of Wilkins, I wasn't a fan of the pick at the time because DTs have a very narrow success rate. If you look at the top paid DTs in the league, only Aaron Donald (and questionably so at this point in his career) is worth the money. Chris Jones will probably join the top group and be worth the money as well in a week or so FWIW. I just don't see how Wilkins is worth 2x as much money as Sieler.
 
I agree. Seems like a wasted pick .we are not reaping the beninfits if we only keep him during his development stage and once he peaks to let another team reap the beninfit. But the team has to draft someone in the first round? Are you suggesting a qb every year because thats the only position thats more likely than not to be extended
am not sure was asking the question. seems odd to draft highly at a position where you feel the positional value is low. i guess that leaves QB, WR, DE, CB, LT, RT, and maybe linebacker and safety as the only positions that should be drafted that high. letting Hunt go, although he wasn't drafted high, that is also an issue of positional value i guess.
 
Rosen was a buy low risk. Getting a QB for a late second rounder one year removed from being a top 10 pick wasn't terrible resource management. The issue was the team decided to start a 37 year old journeyman instead. Team should have trotted out Rosen for 16 games won one game and then kicked the rebuild into full swing in 2020.

Regarding the topic of Wilkins, I wasn't a fan of the pick at the time because DTs have a very narrow success rate. If you look at the top paid DTs in the league, only Aaron Donald (and questionably so at this point in his career) is worth the money. Chris Jones will probably join the top group and be worth the money as well in a week or so FWIW. I just don't see how Wilkins is worth 2x as much money as Sieler.
i think about Rosen a bit differently. was utterly stupid to give up a 2nd rounder for him. i think we bid against ourselves again. however, it would have turned out genius if we didnt sign fitzpatrick to start at QB, and played rosen the whole time, we probably would have not won a single game, been able to draft #1 and pick whichever QB we wanted, and there would have been an outside chance of Flores getting fired and not having been able to do the damage he ended up doing. i think minkah fitzpatrick wasnt traded until Flores 2nd year too, so maybe would have kept minkah. alas not the way it went down, so the josh rosen trade was a total waste
 
Wilkins isn't special enough to prioritize. PFF came out with its Top 101 players regardless of position. Wilkins is 77. There are 9 defensive interior guys ahead of him and 2 not far below him. Dexter Lawrence is 8. That was the guy I wanted. The #8 ranking is probably the greatest disconnect in memory toward where fans would slot the same player:


My issue with Wilkins is that he would rank nowhere among all the great Canes defensive tackles. That's the easy comparison and the reason I've never been thrilled with him. I realize this is a Dolphins forum. Many here have ties to Miami and follow the Canes. It's not even close. I won't even bother with the names of those players.

Likewise at safety. Jevon Holland, are you kidding? This city has featured phenomenal safeties as Dolphins and Canes. The reason I didn't get invested last offseason is that the talent level didn't begin to compare to the championship teams I've witnessed, especially on defense.
 
Wilkins isn't special enough to prioritize. PFF came out with its Top 101 players regardless of position. Wilkins is 77. There are 9 defensive interior guys ahead of him and 2 not far below him. Dexter Lawrence is 8. That was the guy I wanted. The #8 ranking is probably the greatest disconnect in memory toward where fans would slot the same player:


My issue with Wilkins is that he would rank nowhere among all the great Canes defensive tackles. That's the easy comparison and the reason I've never been thrilled with him. I realize this is a Dolphins forum. Many here have ties to Miami and follow the Canes. It's not even close. I won't even bother with the names of those players.

Likewise at safety. Jevon Holland, are you kidding? This city has featured phenomenal safeties as Dolphins and Canes. The reason I didn't get invested last offseason is that the talent level didn't begin to compare to the championship teams I've witnessed, especially on defense.
i think your comments are fair. but he has also exceeded expectations as a player. it all still comes back to a positional value question in my mind. if you dont believe the position is important enough to pay up for the players that play it, not sure should be using first rounders on that position....granted it is a somewhat complex and circular isssue
 
I was against drafting Wilkins, because everyone knew Miami would be drafting a QB in 2020 (the next year), and Miami offense was multiple players away from being good enough to support a rookie QB.

I've said it multiple times over the last 5+ years, but defense doesn't matter until it does; that is, defense doesn't matter until your offense is good enough to compete.

KC is a great example. Mahomes walked into the best offensive infrastructure maybe ever, and they didn't prioritize defense until he was established and they had a firm grasp of his strengths and weaknesses (few as they are).

I would have still liked to keep Wilkins, but 25m is a lot for a guy who isn't a superstar. If someone else wants to pay him, god bless.

Interesting perspective. It also helps that Mahomes has one of the best "experienced" offensive minds as his OC and HC.

Nonetheless with the rules the way they are it does seem that the more potent your offense the better.
 
Wilkins isn't special enough to prioritize. PFF came out with its Top 101 players regardless of position. Wilkins is 77. There are 9 defensive interior guys ahead of him and 2 not far below him. Dexter Lawrence is 8. That was the guy I wanted. The #8 ranking is probably the greatest disconnect in memory toward where fans would slot the same player:


My issue with Wilkins is that he would rank nowhere among all the great Canes defensive tackles. That's the easy comparison and the reason I've never been thrilled with him. I realize this is a Dolphins forum. Many here have ties to Miami and follow the Canes. It's not even close. I won't even bother with the names of those players.

Likewise at safety. Jevon Holland, are you kidding? This city has featured phenomenal safeties as Dolphins and Canes. The reason I didn't get invested last offseason is that the talent level didn't begin to compare to the championship teams I've witnessed, especially on defense.

1. EDGE MYLES GARRETT, CLEVELAND BROWNS

With more help around him, Garrett took his already formidable game to another level, dominating like never before. Garrett finished the year with the league’s best pass-rush win rate and PFF pass-rushing grade, and he notched 89 quarterback pressures and 15 sacks. He was the Defensive Player of the Year and the best player in the game on either side of the ball.

Anyone that has that guy as #1 I don;t trust. Seriously?
 
First I wouldn’t have drafted him. In many defenses, DTs are rotational positions. Which means, tons of money shouldn’t be thrown at it. Suh was a special player. But we didn’t become world beaters by putting him in our defense. That money could have gone to other positions. Give me a mix of space eaters and gap penetrators. Let me spend money on other positions like CB and Edge.
Excellent point!
 
6.5 of the 11 sacks were against the jets, pats, carolina and washington. 3 of them alone against the jets in one game. also 11 sacks in total is not a giant number. you give up what you did for him, you are hoping for 15 plus!
So, you are differentiating between what he can do, based on when he has done (had sacks), considering the strength of the teams he was playing against.

Can you "scale" that with each "sacked" teams end of year OL rating?
Then that might be a very good analysis tool.
 
Those multiple 1st round picks in 2 straight drafts he hit on 4 of the 5 of them? Tua, AJ, Waddle and Phillips. You can criticize him for many things but not his first round picks since 2018 and you especially can't use hindsight and say "look at what we should have drafted now that we know they are good."

Minkah, Wilkins, Tua, AJ, Noah Igbo, Waddle, Phillips, Tyreek and Chubb. That's actually stellar use of 1st round picks imho. Even going back to 2016 when he became GM he drafted Tunsil in 2016 and Harris in 2017, that's only 2 whiffs 12 1st round picks, that is very, very good. It's his mid round picks onwards that have not been good.

Everyone tries to stockpile picks because it's a complete crap shoot, the more attempts you have the better the odds you hit on something.
Minkah and Tunsil were drafted under TBum. Your are looking at his drafts starting in 2019 which is when he became GM, in a vacuum. The AJ pick was a reach and one of the worst picks he’s made. AJ was a project. those aren’t guys you draft at 18 which shows when it took him 4 years to turn the corner and be serviceable. Cedee was picked the spot before. I’m sure it wouldn’t have taken 2 first to move up a couple spots like it took to move up for waddle who isn’t half the wr lamb is. You also had Jefferson on the board. Grier drafts for biggest need no matter what is available. And he has done even worst in FA and cap management
 
Minkah and Tunsil were drafted under TBum. Your are looking at his drafts starting in 2019 which is when he became GM, in a vacuum. The AJ pick was a reach and one of the worst picks he’s made. AJ was a project. those aren’t guys you draft at 18 which shows when it took him 4 years to turn the corner and be serviceable. Cedee was picked the spot before. I’m sure it wouldn’t have taken 2 first to move up a couple spots like it took to move up for waddle who isn’t half the wr lamb is. You also had Jefferson on the board. Grier drafts for biggest need no matter what is available. And he has done even worst in FA and cap management
Yeah, hindsight is great isn’t it?

Just some much wrong with this post I’m not even going to bother pointing it all out.
 
I would pay Chris Jones $30M per year before I would pay Wilkins $20M per year. No way in heck can anyone here convince me Wilkins deserves to be paid 2 to 2.5 times as much as Sieler. I have nothing against Wilkins, but he was the 4th best DT drafted in the 1st round of the 2019 draft. I would argue he should be paid in the range of Ed Oliver.

My argument is that Wilkins does not create his own pressure and he never has. His best games as a pass rusher have always been when our edge guys like Chubb, Phillips or AVG were playing well. Chris Jones absolutely manhandled the 49ers OL this year and was a major reason why the Chiefs have won back to back super bowls.

It has been clear for 2 seasons we needed to trade Wilkins for literally anything more than a 3rd compensation pick. Unfortunately, we kept him around on a discount contract and now we are going to watch him walk for a pick in the 100s in 2025. The team under Grier has a long history of keeping our own players around too long (but that is another story).
 
Many people will say, fine to let Wilkins walk, no way I am paying a defensive tackle that kind of money. There is almost nobody who is saying Wilkins isn't good or a top of the market DT, they are just saying the position is not worth the money.

Fine. Reasonable argument.

BUT then why ever use a first round pick on a position where the positional importance is not high enough such that you won't want to pay the player, who in Wilkins case has actually exceeded the expectations for where he was drafted? Seems kind of dumb, right? If this is the issue, a defensive tackle should never, ever, ever be taken in the first round.

I would say the same thing about running backs.

Never use a high pick on a position if you won't want to pay for the position when the rookie deal is up. If the position isn't worth that much, the position is one that a first round pick should NEVER be spent on.

If you disagree with my point, please tell me why we are letting Wilkins go? If Wilkins was a QB, and he performed at this level, would they be letting him walk over ~$20mm a year? If you say defensive tackles, like RBs are a dime a dozen and can be found easily on the open market, then why use a 1st round pick on them? Therefore you end up back in the same place, a positional value argument.

Which leads me to the next point, we are rumored to be using our first round pick this year on a Center or a Guard, which also give or take falls into the same bucket of positional value as DT or RB. Same mistake?

Of course, Wilkins was the first player taken as part of this whole rebuild. This whole situation, just soooo Dolphins. Wilkins is the first 1st rounder we got right in ages, and out the door he goes, because they don't want to pay for the position they drafted the player to play. Unreal!!!
Your question "Tell me why we're letting Wilkins go?"

Mainly 2 reasons, our GM got too aggressive with big signings/trades/restructures to win it all in 2023 and it didn't work.

Wilkins is wanting more money than his production warrants.

If we had alot of cap flexibility I'm sure we would find a way to keep Wilkins, so it's more of column A than column B.
 
Those multiple 1st round picks in 2 straight drafts he hit on 4 of the 5 of them? Tua, AJ, Waddle and Phillips. You can criticize him for many things but not his first round picks since 2018 and you especially can't use hindsight and say "look at what we should have drafted now that we know they are good."

Minkah, Wilkins, Tua, AJ, Noah Igbo, Waddle, Phillips, Tyreek and Chubb. That's actually stellar use of 1st round picks imho. Even going back to 2016 when he became GM he drafted Tunsil in 2016 and Harris in 2017, that's only 2 whiffs 12 1st round picks, that is very, very good. It's his mid round picks onwards that have not been good.

Everyone tries to stockpile picks because it's a complete crap shoot, the more attempts you have the better the odds you hit on something.

And yet the "Lemmings" wail and whine,
While the rest of us sit back and wine and dine. - LOL

Poetry, with an odd number of feet per line. - LOL
No extra charge. - LOL
 
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