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A General Observation On Drafting Players And Paying Them

Guys been around 10 sacks a year for the last 6 years or so. If they are getting sacks then they are worth it which is why I don’t think Wilkins is. He had a good year this year until you look and see that 6.5 of his 9 sacks were against the pats,jets and panthers. Think he got lucky with some awful olines in contract year. Throw in his 3-4 bonehead penalties every year and at 24+ million no way. I’ve said before the season he’s a 14-17 a mill year guy. Even after his career year still not going past 20.
First I wouldn’t have drafted him. In many defenses, DTs are rotational positions. Which means, tons of money shouldn’t be thrown at it. Suh was a special player. But we didn’t become world beaters by putting him in our defense. That money could have gone to other positions. Give me a mix of space eaters and gap penetrators. Let me spend money on other positions like CB and Edge.
 
I may be wrong, because I can't seem to find it, but does the NBA have a rule that players drafted by the team count less against the cap if they are resigned when their rookie contract is up? Regardless, the NFL should adopt something like this. Fans want to see teams resign their homegrown talent. It does everyone a disservice watching a guy get drafted and grow into a good player, then see him leave after 4-5 years.
 
I also think it's worth noting that Wilkins was drafted at a time when we were starting a rebuild. He was looked at as a player with a high floor and high character. He was a big part of starting the rebuild off right. So, while the position is of lower value, they really liked the player in order to change the culture and turn the team around.
 
Many people will say, fine to let Wilkins walk, no way I am paying a defensive tackle that kind of money. There is almost nobody who is saying Wilkins isn't good or a top of the market DT, they are just saying the position is not worth the money.

Fine. Reasonable argument.

BUT then why ever use a first round pick on a position where the positional importance is not high enough such that you won't want to pay the player, who in Wilkins case has actually exceeded the expectations for where he was drafted? Seems kind of dumb, right? If this is the issue, a defensive tackle should never, ever, ever be taken in the first round.

I would say the same thing about running backs.

Never use a high pick on a position if you won't want to pay for the position when the rookie deal is up. If the position isn't worth that much, the position is one that a first round pick should NEVER be spent on.

If you disagree with my point, please tell me why we are letting Wilkins go? If Wilkins was a QB, and he performed at this level, would they be letting him walk over ~$20mm a year? If you say defensive tackles, like RBs are a dime a dozen and can be found easily on the open market, then why use a 1st round pick on them? Therefore you end up back in the same place, a positional value argument.

Which leads me to the next point, we are rumored to be using our first round pick this year on a Center or a Guard, which also give or take falls into the same bucket of positional value as DT or RB. Same mistake?

Of course, Wilkins was the first player taken as part of this whole rebuild. This whole situation, just soooo Dolphins. Wilkins is the first 1st rounder we got right in ages, and out the door he goes, because they don't want to pay for the position they drafted the player to play. Unreal!!!

Many people will say, fine to let Wilkins walk, no way I am paying a defensive tackle that kind of money. There is almost nobody who is saying Wilkins isn't good or a top of the market DT, they are just saying the position is not worth the money.

Fine. Reasonable argument.

BUT then why ever use a first round pick on a position where the positional importance is not high enough such that you won't want to pay the player, who in Wilkins case has actually exceeded the expectations for where he was drafted? Seems kind of dumb, right? If this is the issue, a defensive tackle should never, ever, ever be taken in the first round.

I would say the same thing about running backs.

Never use a high pick on a position if you won't want to pay for the position when the rookie deal is up. If the position isn't worth that much, the position is one that a first round pick should NEVER be spent on.

If you disagree with my point, please tell me why we are letting Wilkins go? If Wilkins was a QB, and he performed at this level, would they be letting him walk over ~$20mm a year? If you say defensive tackles, like RBs are a dime a dozen and can be found easily on the open market, then why use a 1st round pick on them? Therefore you end up back in the same place, a positional value argument.

Which leads me to the next point, we are rumored to be using our first round pick this year on a Center or a Guard, which also give or take falls into the same bucket of positional value as DT or RB. Same mistake?

Of course, Wilkins was the first player taken as part of this whole rebuild. This whole situation, just soooo Dolphins. Wilkins is the first 1st rounder we got right in ages, and out the door he goes, because they don't want to pay for the position they drafted the player to play. Unreal!!!
1. You probably should use 1st round picks on premium positions (I.e. qb, tackle, wr,cb,edge) but it also depends on bpa and how the board falls to you.

2. What you say holds true if you build your team through the draft which is a good way to do it if you are patient and draft and develop well. However, we accelerated our rebuild by trading premium draft picks away for Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Ramsey, and Bradley Chubb. Once we did that, we went to a different model.

So, that left us in a position where the only way we could stop Wilkins from fielding offers from other teams in free agency would be to tag him. The franchise tag would be $22 million which we simply couldn’t afford, nor could we defer into a bonus and amoratize over multiple years to relieve some of that pain this year.

For that money we could resign Avg, Raekwon Davis, another reasonably priced D tackle for our rotation, Jadavon Clowney, and maybe even someone like Derick Henry. Or an affordable but solid starting interior lineman to replace robert Hunt maybe Deshaun Eliot as well.

My point is, this is the situation we are in because Ross pressured Grier to be more aggressive, especially while Tua was on his rookie deal and now here we are.

Would it have been good to resign Wilkins? Sure. We can resign avg to fill an important role on the edge for 1/3 the price of what Wilkins was asking, and assuming we do we’ll have Avg, Chubb and Philips after they heal and return, and Zack sieler to be disruptive in the passing game, and we’ll be able to replace Wilkins with someone else a lot cheaper and maybe only have an incremental decrease from our front 7, and that’s the truth.

Losing Jerome Baker hurts. But there are guys that are affordable that we could plug in there and be fine. X is no longer worth the money he was asking for or expecting. Here is where we are going to be challenged. We don’t know what we have in cam smith now it is time to find out.. I could see adding a free agent here.
 
There’s no way he’s asking for $27M?

Just something I read and if he was wanting $24M last year then $27M now with the salary cap increase wouldn't be a surprise.

I've read two "insider" comments so far (for what they are worth) that Jones in KC is wanting $30M per season. I doubt either will get it, but there will be some upward movement to the numbers we have been batting around.

I haven't seen anything specific on what Wilkins is asking for or thinks he is worth.....so it is all just speculation

I think Jones will get $30M, if not more. He's an elite pass rusher who can play inside or on the edge when needed. He's one of the two DT's who are actually worth paying top end pass rushing money to.
 
1. You probably should use 1st round picks on premium positions (I.e. qb, tackle, wr,cb,edge) but it also depends on bpa and how the board falls to you.

2. What you say holds true if you build your team through the draft which is a good way to do it if you are patient and draft and develop well. However, we accelerated our rebuild by trading premium draft picks away for Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Ramsey, and Bradley Chubb. Once we did that, we went to a different model.

So, that left us in a position where the only way we could stop Wilkins from fielding offers from other teams in free agency would be to tag him. The franchise tag would be $22 million which we simply couldn’t afford, nor could we defer into a bonus and amoratize over multiple years to relieve some of that pain this year.

For that money we could resign Avg, Raekwon Davis, another reasonably priced D tackle for our rotation, Jadavon Clowney, and maybe even someone like Derick Henry. Or an affordable but solid starting interior lineman to replace robert Hunt maybe Deshaun Eliot as well.

My point is, this is the situation we are in because Ross pressured Grier to be more aggressive, especially while Tua was on his rookie deal and now here we are.

Would it have been good to resign Wilkins? Sure. We can resign avg to fill an important role on the edge for 1/3 the price of what Wilkins was asking, and assuming we do we’ll have Avg, Chubb and Philips after they heal and return, and Zack sieler to be disruptive in the passing game, and we’ll be able to replace Wilkins with someone else a lot cheaper and maybe only have an incremental decrease from our front 7, and that’s the truth.

Losing Jerome Baker hurts. But there are guys that are affordable that we could plug in there and be fine. X is no longer worth the money he was asking for or expecting. Here is where we are going to be challenged. We don’t know what we have in cam smith now it is time to find out.. I could see adding a free agent here.
Agree with everything but a premium pick for Ramsey. We gave up a 3rd and Hunter Long for Ramsey.

I don’t know if Baker is gone for good. He might settle for the pay cut eventually. But he is replaceable. But I won’t forget him trotting back out there with the bum knee.
 
Guys been around 10 sacks a year for the last 6 years or so. If they are getting sacks then they are worth it which is why I don’t think Wilkins is. He had a good year this year until you look and see that 6.5 of his 9 sacks were against the pats,jets and panthers. Think he got lucky with some awful olines in contract year. Throw in his 3-4 bonehead penalties every year and at 24+ million no way. I’ve said before the season he’s a 14-17 a mill year guy. Even after his career year still not going past 20.

This is how I look at it as well. Wilkins had easily his best pass rushing season and if you are going to pay him $24M+ then you are gambling that last season wasn't a fluke and he will continue to produce 9+ sack seasons with 20+ QB hits. If he doesn't then he isn't worth the money.

Looking at his stats on overthecap he has had 20.5 sacks and 50 QB hits in his 5 seasons and 81 games. 9 sacks and 23 QB hits come from last season. Compare that to the other top DL's last 5 seasons who are paid over $20M per season.

SacksQB Hits
Aaron Donald (76 games)51.5109
Chris Jones (76 games)51.5123
Quinnen Williams (73 games)3380
Jeffrey Simmons (69 games)26.556
Dexter Lawrence (87 games)2179

Meanwhile Ed Oliver (who I think is right beside Wilkins) signed for $17M per year last season. He has 24 sacks and 58 QB hits in 78 games over the last 5 years.

Nearly half of Wilkins pass rushing stats came last season (like Daron Payne the year before) so if you are going to pay him 85% of Chris Jones or Aaron Donald money then you better hope he keeps up not only the sacks but especially the QB hits to make it worth it.
 
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I personally am not a fan of drafting a DT or rb in the first round unless it’s a generational talent like Donald or mccafrey.
And I wouldn’t say it was ages before Wilkins that we hit on a first rounder. We hit on Tunsil and Minkah a couple yrs prior
interestingly both of those guys gone too, for different reasons
 
Everything is case by case......most of the time with our top pick I'd want QB/WR/OT/CB/Edge but regardless of what people might say, needs matters........first you get your "must"........then you get your "needs".....then you get your "wants" and then you have your "luxury" picks.......with only 6 picks unless we trade back you better get what you need before you get your wants and really, we don’t have the luxury for a luxury pick this year.
sounds like a song:
 
Guys been around 10 sacks a year for the last 6 years or so. If they are getting sacks then they are worth it which is why I don’t think Wilkins is. He had a good year this year until you look and see that 6.5 of his 9 sacks were against the pats,jets and panthers. Think he got lucky with some awful olines in contract year. Throw in his 3-4 bonehead penalties every year and at 24+ million no way. I’ve said before the season he’s a 14-17 a mill year guy. Even after his career year still not going past 20.
side note. this is partly my concern about chubb's year. it seems a lot of his production came against the same broken teams. even though it was an improvement, i still wonder how much there is actually there. we will see what it looks like when he comes back. i do think wilkins is a better (and less injury prone) DT than chubb is an edge guy. obviously positional value of edge is higher. personally end of day i would have preferred not to have traded for chubb, and to have kept wilkins around instead with that money, and had the draft capital as well
 
1. You probably should use 1st round picks on premium positions (I.e. qb, tackle, wr,cb,edge) but it also depends on bpa and how the board falls to you.

2. What you say holds true if you build your team through the draft which is a good way to do it if you are patient and draft and develop well. However, we accelerated our rebuild by trading premium draft picks away for Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Ramsey, and Bradley Chubb. Once we did that, we went to a different model.

So, that left us in a position where the only way we could stop Wilkins from fielding offers from other teams in free agency would be to tag him. The franchise tag would be $22 million which we simply couldn’t afford, nor could we defer into a bonus and amoratize over multiple years to relieve some of that pain this year.

For that money we could resign Avg, Raekwon Davis, another reasonably priced D tackle for our rotation, Jadavon Clowney, and maybe even someone like Derick Henry. Or an affordable but solid starting interior lineman to replace robert Hunt maybe Deshaun Eliot as well.

My point is, this is the situation we are in because Ross pressured Grier to be more aggressive, especially while Tua was on his rookie deal and now here we are.

Would it have been good to resign Wilkins? Sure. We can resign avg to fill an important role on the edge for 1/3 the price of what Wilkins was asking, and assuming we do we’ll have Avg, Chubb and Philips after they heal and return, and Zack sieler to be disruptive in the passing game, and we’ll be able to replace Wilkins with someone else a lot cheaper and maybe only have an incremental decrease from our front 7, and that’s the truth.

Losing Jerome Baker hurts. But there are guys that are affordable that we could plug in there and be fine. X is no longer worth the money he was asking for or expecting. Here is where we are going to be challenged. We don’t know what we have in cam smith now it is time to find out.. I could see adding a free agent here.
i agree with the ross point. i think the all-in started at the top with him. not sure it was a smart bet with what we had in place at the time. this thought has been brewing. will be my next thread! :)
 
It's still about acquiring talent, even though the building model needs to be different in the salary cap era.

Those who don't think defense tackle is important, should look no further than the top four teams that advanced to the conference championship game. All but Detroit had some really good talent at DT. Jones for KC as an example.

Is Wilkins worth $24 million a year? On the open market, I bet he gets that. But for Miami it would mean losing other young players like maybe Waddle and Holland.

Teams still win in the trenches, though, so this is a good discussion.
 
side note. this is partly my concern about chubb's year. it seems a lot of his production came against the same broken teams. even though it was an improvement, i still wonder how much there is actually there. we will see what it looks like when he comes back. i do think wilkins is a better (and less injury prone) DT than chubb is an edge guy. obviously positional value of edge is higher. personally end of day i would have preferred not to have traded for chubb, and to have kept wilkins around instead with that money, and had the draft capital as well

Don’t see why?

2 sacks vs Philly, 1.5 vs Dallas, 1 vs KC also had a forced fumble vs both Philly and KC. Those are some big time performances in big games.
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First I wouldn’t have drafted him. In many defenses, DTs are rotational positions. Which means, tons of money shouldn’t be thrown at it. Suh was a special player. But we didn’t become world beaters by putting him in our defense. That money could have gone to other positions. Give me a mix of space eaters and gap penetrators. Let me spend money on other positions like CB and Edge.

I’d like DJ Reader. Would be about 10 million a year cheaper and he’s a big mauler. I don’t like 2 300 pound DT’s give me a 330 pound mauler like him.
 
The increase in the salary cap this year by $30.6M for each team means that there is almost an addition $1Billion floating around in the pool for NFL players and the prime be beneficiaries will be the elite players. Teams like the Bears, the Commanders and the Patriots each have between $80 - 100M in their back pockets to spend. Net effect is that Christian Wilkins is in a super strong negotiating position to get paid absolute top $ and some cashed up team will be able to pay up to get an immediate improvement in their D-line. What some on FH consider crazy money for a Defensive Tackle will likely occur.
 
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