I started thinking hey what was RT W-L record in the games you referenced above?
A couple corrections in your data:
2015 week 5 was a bye week. So you mean weeks 6-12 or 7 games
2013 week 15 was a huge game for RT and a win over NE. So I'm sure you meant weeks 9-15 or 7 games here.
So adding up these stretches is a total of 30 of RT's 77 career starts.
In these 30 games RT has a W-L record of 20-10. A staggering 67% win rate.
This means in RTs other 47 career starts his record is an abysmal 17 wins and 30 losses.
What can we draw from this?
I am pretty sure if we studied many historical middling QBs like RT we would find stretches of play like this. Periods of strong play mixed with other periods of poor play. The issue with middling QBs like RT is their inconsistency week to week and stretch to stretch.
Maybe his supporting cast is why he is so inconsistent? I tend to think it's more to do with the fact he just isn't that great.
Bottom line in your post is you have uncovered a key clue: RT has had stretches of good play dating back to 2013, but somehow still hasn't put it together for a season. Why then do we think 2018 and beyond will be any different?
Yeah you're right its not week 5-12, I was going by his game log so it would be game 5-12 in 2015 and so forth.
Precisely why i said the 8 game stretch is overblown because dating back to 2013 he has had these 8 game stretches.
What's different about 2016 compared to all other years (2012-15) was the highest win% of his career in games decided by 7 points. Which to me is a big factor, because it shows you can be counted on in close games. Improving his 3rd down numbers, having his QB rating go from a career mid to high 70's on 3rd down to a career high 87.7, going from career (12-15) 6.3 y/a on 3rd downs to career high 7.5. Going from a RZ career comp% (12-15) of 55% to a career high 68%.
Also going from a career QB rating of 78 in the 4th QTR from 2012-15 and getting his previous high of 84.9 to go up to a 92.3 QB rating in the 4th QTR.
Those are the biggest differences between his 1st 4 years and his 5th year. His 5th year he put together an entire season of good 3rd down, RZ, 4th QTR, and close game play. Not to mention the deep ball improvement.
He posted career high's in all these categories. Does that make him a great QB? IDK..but it shows a lot more than an 8 game stretch which has been done 3 other times does. Those other 8 game stretches were similar but he's never put it together in these areas.
Am I sold on him? Absolutely not, I was hoping 2017 would show me if it was a fluke or not. I don't crown people after a game or a season. I need to see it for at least 2 years, which is why I hate that he didn't play in 2017. The most frustrating part in my opinion is that we don't know yet what he is. But no matter what he is going to be the starter for 2018 even if they draft a 1st rd QB. So either way we're going to find out in 2018.
Last edited: