Ask Boomer

[NorFlaFin]

Thanks Boomer.

Do you see any other players in the draft who do to injury or bad senior seasons(new coaches, schemes) that most likely will fall in the draft(compare to where as juniors they would have gone)?

 

[CrunchTime]

Here is a few more (Apologies if they have been mentioned)

Talented University of Virginia tight end Heath Miller has decided to renounce his final season of college eligibility to enter the NFL draft.Miller, who will very likely be the first TE selected in the draft, holds the following ACC career records: Most receptions for a TE (144); most receiving yards for a TE (1,703); most TD receptions for a TE (20)

Temple quarterback Walter Washington announced he will forgo his final season of eligibility and make himself available for the NFL Draft. Washington, at 6'2" and 240 pounds, led the nation in rushing TDs by a quarterback in 2004 with 15.

Ole Miss guard Chris Spencer, a 6'4", 310-pound junior, was an honorable mention selection to the Associated Press all-SEC team, has also declared for the draft. He has told media outlets he was projected as a 2nd round pick by the NFL's Draft Advisory Panel

Former Nebraska and All-Big 12 guard Richie Incognito, who had attempted to transfer to Oregon, has officially entered the draft. No surprise here in the least. Incognito is a player with high potential and a nasty streak, but has to prove to NFL scouts he's not going to be problem off the field.

Athletic QB Jay Cutler will return to Vanderbilt for his senior season. He threw for 10 TD's in 2004 and rushed for 6 more.

Tennessee safety/cornerback Jason Allen plans to enter the NFL draft, but hasn't hired an agent yet. Allen wants the ability to reverse his decision and by not signing with an agent, he has 10 more days to mull his choice over....Allen has told Tennessee media the NFL has projected him as a second round pick.

Missouri running back Damien Nash will forego his final season of eligibility and enter the NFL Draft. Nash, who led the Tigers with 792 yards rushing and 7 TD's in 2004. According to Missouri officials, Nash got some positve feed back from the NFL Draft Advisory Panel.

Running back Derrick Johnese of Northwestern State is also entering his name in the NFL Draft. Johnese, who's 5' 10" and 210 pounds, rushed for 1,094 yards in 2004 for the D-1AA school-- good for an average of 7.2 yards per carry. One NFL scout recently said Johnese is likely a "2nd day pick".

 

[Dolphin-One]

Boomer:

About where do you think QB Andrew Walter (ASU) will be drafted? Has he recovered from the third degree shoulder separation of his right shoulder? I have heard he will not be at the Combine because he will be recovering from the injury.

Of the QBs in this draft, who are right handed and who are left handed? (I heard Matt Leinart is a left handed QB. Is that true?) I believe left handed QBs throws spirals revolving in the opposite direction compared to spirals a right handed QB throws (and please correct me if I'm wrong). Catching passes from a left handed QB requires an adjustment by receivers acustomed to receiving passes from a right-handed QB, right?

 

[BigDogsHunt]

Caneaddict....this is a great question as I've mentioned. I remember a few years ago, drawing up a mock draft at the start of what was probably the 1989 season and putting the Rice TB Trevor Cobb in high. My reasoning was that he had a bunch of yards and I hadn't seen him play. So when I read some literature about the games best draft prospect backs and Cobb was no-where to be seen, I thought it odd. But then when I saw him play and saw that the reason he had all the stats was because Rice just ran him and ran him and ran him, behind a big old OL, against some questionable competition at times and that he was undersized, that he didn't have great speed or hands and nor was he a great blocker, it became clear. Yet the guy won the Doak Walker. And this is where people get confused. But you are looking for translational abilities.

With that in mind, essentially it comes down to instinct when scouting. Repetition helps - watching a tonne of tapes, a lot of players, looking at their bodies - will they add weight, how do they look when they move, does the game seem easy for them, have they seperated themselves from the rest and if so, why? Can they stack up to NFL pounding week in and week out. Remember, college ball has 116 odd 1-A teams - that's a LOT of players. There is a lot less in the pros.

Take a running back - how quick are they, vision, can they pick up the blitz, can they SEE the blitz, what are their hands like, can they get down the field, can they see a hole, how quickly do they accelerate into that hole, take on a linebacker, what's the blocking like, are they inteference blockers, or can they actually stand someone up, whats their blocking technique, can they pick the right hole, how do they hold the ball, can they bounce back after a fumble, are they high cut, what are their legs like - thighs - how big, lower legs, how much power, do they change the ball to protect it when running, what are they like close to the goaline, what are the hips like, can they read blocks, are they patient, do they run north/south etc?, can they get to the edge, can they turn their shoulders upfield, how big are the hands, etc etc etc.

Same with the QB - look at Steve Taylor. He was a running QB who didn't have the arm or the delivery for the pros at that time, in an era where the drop back pocket passer was de rigeur. What are the mechanics like, where does the ball come from, how quick does it come out, whats the motion like, follow through, footwork? Do they step into the throws, are they flat footed, are they mobile, can they throw on the run, what's the motion like on the run, how do they deal with the blitz, can they see it, can they check out to the right play, how do they command the huddle, can they lead, how strong is the arm, can they sense pressure, can they remain calm in the pocket, can they step up, can they make all the throws, how do they work through their progressions, can they make yards with their feet, what is the body like, what are the tapes habits like, are they intelligent, can they stand up to a pass rush, does he take his eyes off the receiver and looks at the DE, can they take the sack without making the pick, etc etc etc.

When you can answer enough of those questions in the positive, you have something you can work with.

So why do some players develop in college and then cease do be effective in the pros or vice versa? A lot is systems, which I will touch on in a minute, but to take one of your guys, Troy Edwards - he was the ultimate system WR. Matched up a lot in the slot, La Tech moved him around a hell of a lot, created gimmick plays that were succesful for him and remember, he was an undersized guy playing essentially against inferior talent. He was simply not big or physical enough to get away with that in the NFL. He was playing corners that either didn't get their hands on him at the line or who weren't quick enough. That didn't happen in the NFL. Suddenly he's going against 6-1, 200lb physical press corners.

A lot too much emphaisis is placed on the Combine - far too much. People suddenly forget the body of work of a player through 4 years and go on one flashy 40 time and some catches in shorts and a t-shirt. When a player has a surprisingly impressive workout, the first reaction should not be to move him up three rounds on the draft board. It should be a re-evaluation. You mention Rice and Thomas - well Rice famously ran a slow time at the Combine, but he was drafted into a system that suited him perfectly - his ability after the catch, his speed over the first 5 steps, his route running ability and his hands, honed from years of catching bricks as a child. Look at the flip side - USC WR R. Jay Soward ran a 4.35 40-yard dash at the combine because nobody in the Pac-10 could catch him. People forgot that he was a flameout who ran questionable routes and had inconsistent hands. His drafting was the beginning of the end of Tom Coughlin in Jacksonville.

As for Thomas, size was less of an issue for him than it was for Edwards because there are ways to deal with Zach's size, which JJ did perfectly - he knew he could succeed behind behemoth DT's. As a WR you can't hide your deficiencies as easily.

Staying with the Combine, the type of drills a player excels in also can be telling. What do I mean? Well....a short shuttle is more telling about a DLmans ability than a 40-yard dash. People grade players all too often on the way he excels in tests that don't measure his ability to play his position. When I see the DL test results at Indy, unless the guy has run a 5.8, I could care less about the 40 time. What 'm looking at is the 5 and 10 yard splits. How quick he is in and out of the shuttle drill, which will measure how explosive he is over a short distance and how quickly he changes direction.

Take Chris Hovan as an example, a player we may go after in FA. Many teams had questions about his athleticism when he came out. When he performed the specific DT drills, those questions disappeared. All of the tests, the runs and jumps can be practiced and rehearsed. You can get better with reps. Athleticism is much harder to rehearse.

Again, you need to evaluate workouts differently. A great workout by an offensive lineman should be regarded more lightly than a great workout by a wide receiver. Why? Because athleticism matters much less to the former than it does the latter. Workouts also can be most revealing for tight ends. You could be seeing them do things that they have never done before because a lot come from run-oriented offenses. That's why a lot of TE's slip through the net. And then a lot of WR's end up doing the TE drills and all of a sudden you see how well they can block and they have the size to become a good TE/H-back. Take Denver's Jeb Putzier - he's the perfect example of this. At Boise State he ran patterns as a WR, but didn't block much. At workouts, he proved that he could get his hands on people, take good angles, use leverage. The fact that he was too slow to be a top end WR didn't matter. All of a sudden, Mike Shanahan has one of the best TE's in the game on his hand.

But it doesn't always work so easily as that Cane. There are reasons players don't always show their athleticism on the field that you have to take into consideration.

Sometimes the player is poorly coached in college. This is particularly possible with small-school players. Not denegrating the work of small school coaches, but that's sometimes just the way it is. Look at how many small schoolers there are in the pros and how they were drafted. That's not a coincidence. But you have to weigh up the competition and that's hard to do when each week the guy you like is playing Kutztown State and Grand Valley State etc. Take our own Lamar Gordon - I have a tape upstairs of his from college. Sent to me by the SID of the college, it has all his highlights and then a game tape of a particular game. You can see he dominates at that level and you can see why he was rated so highly. But you look at the guys he's playing against. Can he be that good in the pros? I don't think we still have that answer. Another good example was Ladanian Tomlinson. To my mind, he's the best back in the NFL, but there was plenty of fuss about him when he came out of TCU because of the level of competition that he played against.

Sometimes Cane it's the scheme used at the player's college that doesn't bring out the best in him. Take Philly's Jevon Kearse. He's a much better NFL player than he was at Florida. Titans coaches studied every snap he was in on for the Gators and worked out what he did best, in which situation he succeeded most, etc etc etc. They then eliminated all the plays he struggled on and moulded a defense around his particular athletic abilities and he has subsequently flourished. He was a great player at UF, but he got by on athleticism more than honed DE skill. Look at backs that come from pure run or pure pass systems. Often they struggle at the next level because they only know 1 discipline - either pass or run. So the runners don't know how to catch proficiently, they don't understand picking up the blitz, etc. And they have played behind big old roadgrading run blockers. This is typical in places like Nebraska - till last year - Wisconsin, Kansas, etc. When they get to the pros they have to learn the game almost from scratch. And it's tough because you are now playing with the elite. There are only 32 teams not 116. Instead of being the big fish in the small pond, you are now the small fish in the big pond. Now trying being the small fish and having to learn how to swim. Almost impossible.

Sometimes the player is not playing his best pro position in college. A good example of this is the Bears Jerry Azumah. A productive small-school back at New Hampshire, he was too small to be an every down pro back, so Dick Jauron turned him into a CB - 5'10, 195. It turns out to have been a good switch. Brian Urlacher - an active, big hitting safety in college, but the Bears thought he could handle the switch and it proved thus.

Sometimes it's the players on the team that the player is playing for in college that don't allow him to flourish. There is a well known story of when Bill Walsh, then working for the Bengals, went to see the workout of a quarterback for a Division III school. Walsh says that the team were struggling, people weren't making plays, but he saw something in this kid. So he took him to the gym, just him and this player and he got him throwing and he saw the arm and the quick delivery and the mechanics. He got him moving around and saw the atheticism and the footwork. So he pestered and pestered and pestered and finally he convinced the Bengals to invest a 3rd rounder on the kid. It was Ken Anderson who turned into a hell of a player.

So the bottom line is that experience comes with time. It's easy to see the big time big schoolers and whether they will be a pro player. But can you put on a Northern Colorado tape tonight and tell me why Vincent Jackson might be the next Terrell Owens? Can you put on a Louisiana Monroe tape and tell me which of their 11 starters is highly rated and why*? When you can do that - and it only comes with time and some of the factors above, THATS when you know what you are looking for!!

*It's safety Chris Harris BTW.

Hope that helps.
Boom.

By far, one of the best analytical reads and breakdowns for scouting......thanks.

 

[caneaddict]

Thanks Boomer for the thorough response. Great read!

 

[Boomer]

Hey Boom,
I'd like to hear your thoughts on Peter Warrick. He was one of the most electrifying Seminole I'd ever seen and I was sure he'd become a solid number 1 WR one day.
Why has he platooned as a number 2 WR with the Bengals ? Could it be a combination of suspect route running and poor attitude? Or does he just not have the physical attributes to be a dominant WR in the NFL?
Why has he not become, in your mind, a number 1 WR ?

Also what is your opinion of Casey Printers? He's just had an MVP season in the CFL and did reasonably well at TCU back in the day with LT21? Would you try to get him?

Lastly,
Who, in your opinion, since 1987 (all the drafts you've covered) conducted the best draft (in a given year) ? ( For ex: I just saw recently that Savage plucked Odgen and Lewis in the '96 draft)
And name me a player you were very high on that didn't pan out and a player who you thought would never be the player he is today.

Thanks again for the great work an analysis, I find myself logging on just to read the Ask Boomer thread, it's a real pleasure, and all the best for the new year.

:)

Hey Pink....tremendous college WR, with explosive moves after the catch and excellent hands. But he was always undersized for the pros and not overly quick which is why he hasn't developed into the great WR that the Bengals thought he would become. He isn't physical at the line and despite having quick feet, teams know to press him at the snap and it disrupts his routes. Personally I thought he would have contributed more as a return man, although his performances generally have flown under the radar, mainly because he plays for the Bengals. You only have to look at Chad Johnson to appreciate that.

I'm afraid I haven't seen any BC Lions games to have an opinion on Printers.

Good last question (s)........

Lot of good drafts...the Ravens always draft well - in 1996 they got Ogden, Ray Lewis and Jermaine Lewis. Arguably 1997 was as good if not better with Jamie Sharper, Kim Herring, Peter Boulware, Jeff Mitchell and Cornell Brown.

Atlanta in 98 with Brooking, Bob Hallen, Tim Dwight, Elijah Williams and Ephrahim Salaam was good.

Buffalo in 87 and 97....Shane Conlan, Nate Odomes, Mueller the big FB, Leon Seals, Keith McKeller and Howard Ballard....and in 97...Winfield, Peerless Price, Shawn Bryson, Keith Newman, Jay Foreman and Bryce Fisher.

The Bears in 1999 with Rex Tucker, D'wayne Bates, Marty Booker, Warrick Holdman, Rosie Colvin and Jerry Azumah was strong.

Bengals in 98 - Spikes, Brian Simmons, Artrell Hawkins, Steve Foley, Mike Goff, Glen Steele.

Gotta give some dap to the Cowboys in 88, 89 and 91...Irvin, Ken Norton, Dave Widell, Mark Higgs and Chad Henning in 88....Aikman, Steve Walsh, Steve Wisniewski, Moose Johnston, Stepnoski and Randy Shannon in 89 and Russell Maryland, Alvin Harper, Kelvin Pritchett, Dixon Edwards, Miles, Erik Williams, Leon Lett and SB MVP Larry Brown in 91. That is hard to top.

Player I was high on that didn't pan out.....hmmmmm.........Sammie Smith.....Hart Lee Dykes.....Marvin Jones....


Player I didn't like that did........hmmmmm.......Eric Moulds....and I didn't think Mike Rucker could consistently rush the passer in the NFL.

More will come to me I'm sure.

 

[Boomer]

I agree with you about not taking a QB in the 1rst round but Saban may not. If Saban goes QB what do think is the better option. Trading the 2006 2nd rounder and possibly more with SF to guarantee Leinhart or trading the #2 for Rivers, assuming SD will deal him. Hold the Chargers to Rivers value as the 2004 #4 pick and swap the Bears pick with the SD #24 pick (I think that's what their pick will be) or get their 2005 2nd & 3rd round picks. We should have some leverage with Rodgers availabe and because even with all their cap room SD probably doesn't want to pay 3 1rst round contracts/5 1rst day picks, eat the bonus money paid to Rivers, and pay Brees the big contract in 2005.
More to the point, how much better do you think Leinhart is than Rivers?

I don't think we should be giving up picks in the future or for Rivers. I think Leinart, in the right system is better.

 

[Boomer]

Also Boomer, I have been in discussions with the owner of our website about potentially doing a weekly Draftblitz radio talk show on either Sirius Satellite Radio or starting up our own AM station. Keep it in the back of your mind if you are interested. Would love to have you as a guest speaker and let fans call in and ask questions about their team, potential picks, and college players. Would probably require some sort of phone call via an internet connection since you are overseas. But it will probably take us the rest of 2005 to get up and running. [/i][/color][/left]

OK mate....keep me in the loop.

 

[Boomer]

Thanks Boomer.

Do you see any other players in the draft who do to injury or bad senior seasons(new coaches, schemes) that most likely will fall in the draft(compare to where as juniors they would have gone)?

Chris Canty is one that immediately springs to mind. Andrew Walter is another. Jermelle Lewis of Iowa. Geoff McCarthur. Mike Munoz. Lance Mitchell off his ACL from a year ago.

 

[BassFin]

Hey Boomer!

I always look forward to this time of year and your insight. I have a few questions:

1. Mike Williams. Any word on what kind of shape he's in? And do you think he was a product of USC's system or is he just that good? He seemed like a real playmaker and would look great alongside Chambers.

2. Do you realistically see the Fins spending the 2nd pick on Alex Barron after watching Carey sit on the bench most of the year?

3. Can you suggest a good Scouting Service to subscribe to or a good Player Evaluation publication?

Thanks for your time. Hope the baby's doing well!

 

[Boomer]

Here is a few more (Apologies if they have been mentioned)

Talented University of Virginia tight end Heath Miller has decided to renounce his final season of college eligibility to enter the NFL draft.Miller, who will very likely be the first TE selected in the draft, holds the following ACC career records: Most receptions for a TE (144); most receiving yards for a TE (1,703); most TD receptions for a TE (20)

Now THERE'S a blue chip player.

 

[Boomer]

Boomer:

About where do you think QB Andrew Walter (ASU) will be drafted? Has he recovered from the third degree shoulder separation of his right shoulder? I have heard he will not be at the Combine because he will be recovering from the injury.

Of the QBs in this draft, who are right handed and who are left handed? (I heard Matt Leinart is a left handed QB. Is that true?) I believe left handed QBs throws spirals revolving in the opposite direction compared to spirals a right handed QB throws (and please correct me if I'm wrong). Catching passes from a left handed QB requires an adjustment by receivers acustomed to receiving passes from a right-handed QB, right?

Probably the 3rd round area. He won't be ready to work out pre-draft but long term the benefit is going to be greater. Scouts wil just have to go on interviews and his body fo work at ASU.

Leinart is a lefty. Can't think off the top of my head any other major ones.

Have no idea re: spinning of the ball. Maths and Physics are not strong points :)
I think you just catch it whichever way it's spinning.

 

[Boomer]

By far, one of the best analytical reads and breakdowns for scouting......thanks.

Very kind of you to say so.

 

[Boomer]

Thanks Boomer for the thorough response. Great read!

No worries mate. Glad it was what you were after.

 

[Boomer]

Hey Boomer!

I always look forward to this time of year and your insight. I have a few questions:

1. Mike Williams. Any word on what kind of shape he's in? And do you think he was a product of USC's system or is he just that good? He seemed like a real playmaker and would look great alongside Chambers.

2. Do you realistically see the Fins spending the 2nd pick on Alex Barron after watching Carey sit on the bench most of the year?

3. Can you suggest a good Scouting Service to subscribe to or a good Player Evaluation publication?

Thanks for your time. Hope the baby's doing well!

Hey Bass.....no worries. Yep she's fine thanks mate.

1. I have no idea what sort of shape he is in. I don't even know if he was allowed to work out with USC. I had heard he wasn't, but who knows? He worked out last yeasr for scouts and was 6’4 5/8†and 228 pounds, while posting a 4.56 and a 4.66 40 time and a 37†vertical jump. He's a very gifted player but there is a lot to work on. Some teams have talked about making him an Antonio Gates type TE. He would provide us with a heck of a talent for sure.

2. Well if we need a LT, then Barron is the best rated, so yes I could see that. I'm not sure that McIntosh or Smith are done - neither becomes a bad player overnight - but I don't know what the coach thinks.

3. Personally Mel Kiper's stuff is the best IMHO. But lots of people have personal preferences. Ourlads is always good as is Frank Coyles.