This is an excellent thread. Allow me to add a Patriots point of view.
This has been a very odd season. Its been very inspiring with all the late game wins. At the same time its be depressing watching 5 key players go to the IR (Mayo, Wilfolk, Kelly., Volmer, and Gronk) and have many more missing games or obviously limited, (Talib, Dennard, Gregory, Dobson, Thompkins, Cannon, Hooman, etc). I thought that this year was going to be the best defense the Pats have had since 2007, and we now have line up littered with UDFA's, FA cuts, and rookie low round picks having to start. But on the other hand if you had told me at the start of the season the Pats would be 10-3 with everyone healthy, I would have been thrilled. Very confusing.
But it is what it is, and now its one to Miami, where the Pats have a hard time under the best of conditions. I think its clear now that there is no game the Pats can't win, but on the other hand there is not team that isn't capable of beating them if they don't play well. Miami easily has as much individual talent as the Pats if not more. But what has made this team one of my personal favorites is the sum is clearly greater than the individual parts, and its one of the more mentally tough teams of the BB era. But they are also a flawed team and the OP pointed it out well right from the start of the thread.
Now I will do what we all try and do and usually fail, and that's trying to predict how BB will game plan the Fins. Here is my attempt. Take it for what its worth.
When the Pats are on offense:
1. I think BB is going to go back to one of his first innovations from back in the 2003-2006 era It was about that time when BB went from a run first philosophy to going primarily to 4 and 5 wides and an empty backfield, especial against teams with good defenses (ie Steelers) and shredded them with this. Right now the 2 major offensive threats on the Pats are their WR's and RBs.
2. WR's I don't think Dobson will be ready for this game so the Dolphins will likely see some combination Amendola, Edelman, Boyce, and Thompkins. Amendola still playing with a torn groin, but seems to slowly be gettiing better. Edelman is having a career season. Boyce showed that he's an explosive player who can get deep in his first real action of the year, and Thompkins is having a nice rookie year playing in the Deion Branch role. Not one of them is going to strike fear in any DC's heart, and the TE's threats quite frankly will leave them laughing. But this isn't about individuals, but the collective and the guy making the decisions. And that is something to be feared.
Don't forget the Pats won 3 superbowls without ever having a WR with 1000 yds or 10 TDs. The good news for Miami is that they won't have to game plan against any mismatch nightmares. The bad news is WHERE do the Dolphins focus. I think the Pats will spread the Dolphins out and let the Dolphins decide where the ball is going by their coverage. If the Dolphins Blits, the ball will be go even if the have a man come clean on the outside. Brady is simply the best QB in the league in reading where throw against the blitz. The ONLY way to effectively pass rush against him is up the middle.
3. RB's The Pats have a very solid running game. I think Ridley is a top 10 RB .....when he holds on to the ball. If he gets his 15-20 carries he going to be well over 4ypc and have at least one run over 10yd
Blount has been a revelation. I was against this trade from the outset. Bucs fans told us he was a 250lb power back that thought he was Barry Sanders. Nothing he did in the first 9 game led me to believe anything different. He had his moments, but more often than not he wound up NOT falling forward at the end of his runs. Then just as suddenly the last few games somehow the coaches finally got through to him, and he's completely turned his game around. He hits the hole hard. He's moving the pile. He's getting the tough short yardage. I don't know how it happened, but he's a great asset to the Pats RB core.
Boldin - is a good solid workmanlike RB. He's there era's BJGE, only surrounded by better RBs
Vareen - We all thought that Vareen was Danny Woodhead, only bigger, and with more upside. He hasn't disappointed. He's run between the tackles on the GL and he's split wide on pass plays.
Devlin - He's the FB who has had his role increasing as his execution has improved. A former Ivy league DE, he's made himself into a decent receiver. A big surprise.
4. So the Pats will run some TE formations and will throw Play Action off them, but I think for the most part the Dolphins will see lots of multiple WR formations and motion, with quick passes and no huddle.
When the Pats are on defense: OUCH
I am among the minority who think that the Pats can still score over 25 points with the offense minus Gronk. Lots of problems you saw in the first game with the receivers have been improved on. The DEFENSE however is in really bad shape.
1. On the plus side they CAN play decently against the run. They held the Panther RB's to under 40 yds collectively, and did well against the Browns, so they CAN, on occasion play decent run defense. I know Thomas did well last week, but the Pats historically do better against big power backs than smaller quick ones, you your injury situation is in our favor.
2. If I were the DC this game I wouldn't do the obvious and put Talib on Wallace. First I don't know if he's healthy enough, and 2nd Wallace is the kind of receiver that give Talib the most problems. So I'd put Talib on Hartline and completely shut him down, and them use Dennard (who is very physical) with a Safety over the top to cover Wallace.
3. The Pats blitz and stunt probably as little as anyone in the league. IIRC the average blitz percentage in the league is around 30%. The Pats are around 15%. For this game I think they need to be at LEAST at the league average if the Pats are going to win. They need to make Tannyhill unsure of what he's seeing. Otherwise I think the Dolphins are fully capable of carving up the Pats like the Browns did, and make this game a shoot out, which I think favors them, because, while I think this offense is going to be OK by the playoffs, this is the first game without Gronk, so there will be growing pains.
4. Finally it will all come down like it usually does to TURNOVERS - The team that ends up on the plus side of this stat is likely to be the winner and all the talk that came before this will end up being meaningless :D
