NaboCane said:Allen is an awesome talent, and I'll keep saying that because I believe it and because I don't want anyone to think I'm putting him down at all. Even his health concern I could set aside, unless it will be chronic and debilitating.
But my point is that Saban acted in a way that defied his own blueprint for building the team by taking Allen over Carpenter and Cromartie. As I said in my analysis, those two are custom-made for what Saban wants for his D...that's not me saying it, it's his own definition of the positions.
Allen is a great talent, and will doubtless perform well if the concern about his hip is unfounded or exaggerated; however, an irrefutable fact is Allen's size - he is 6'0"+...now answer me this: if Saban has stated a preference for big corners, then why would he want a small safety!?
Is it possible that he wants his safeties smaller than his corners? Of course not. So Saban went against type for Allen, because he considers Allen to be such a superior player that he overcomes his height and weight. Fine. But what about his injury history? Forget the hip for the moment, this is what Scott Wright and Draft Scout had to say:
Hmm...you know, for all the swooning being done around here for this guy, he sure has a lot of weaknesses that don't translate well to the pros; "Average speed for the outside might be exposed at the next level..." "Has very good timed speed, but struggles a bit to maintain position when trying to cover on the perimeter..." "Slow to recognize plays / sometimes influenced by play-action..."
Here's the bottom line: Might be a 'tweener without a true position... this is not a quality you look for in a 1st-round pick, in the middle of the round.. It's a quality that, if you're a coach with the pedigree of a Nick Saban, as smart and disciplined as he's supposed to be with his draft picks, you let other coaches make the mistake of taking him too early.
If you're a coach with the savvy and the confident knowledge of what you want of each position and each player on your team, you don't pass on a Bobby Carpenter; 6'3"/256#/4.6 - the absolute prototype of the linebacker you've wanted on your team, and a very difficult position to draft for because they don't come along this perfect very often - or an Antonio Cromartie; 6'2"+/ 208#/4.4 - a guy who exceeds the prototype of your ideal corner, a guy with a combination of coverage skills at a high program/competition level and essentially the same speed as the undersized guy you did end up drafting.
You don't take an undersized player with injury concerns - various injury concerns - in the middle of the 1st round. You just don't. And you ABSOLUTELY don't do that when you only have 3 picks in the first 6 rounds, in a draft as deep as this one in talent and players with coachable issues and tremendous upside. You just don't.
Someone argued that Allen is pound-for-pound the best DB in the draft; and that's fine. Except that players don't play pound-for-pound - they play as the sum total of their assets and liabilities. Talent is ONE of the factors that go into evaluating a player; how he fits into your overall plan - your blueprint for your team - is another. And yet another is injury history; a player with a history of more than one injury that is outside the unfortunately normal knee injuries and breaks, bumps and bruises in college doesn't translate well into a world in which all the players are the size, speed and power of the very best you faced in college.
But the one deciding factor in evaluating who's best for a certain pick in a draft in which you have very few picks to begin with is who else is available when it's your turn to make that pick.
And, more than Allen's liabilities, it's the assets of Bobby Carpenter and Antonio Cromartie at that pick, and how well they fit into the plan that Saban himself has for his team, that make me reach the conclusion that Allen was the wrong pick for Saban to make with the 16th pick on Saturday.
Again, just because your board doesn't agree with his is irrelevent, Allen was a top 12 player to Saban, the players you named were not.
He stayed true to his BPA philosophy.