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Dolphins draft grades from around the web

SF Dolphin Fan said:
So true. And there will be players we barely heard of who could turn out as well. On a radio show, Bill Polian was discussing how 60% of first rounders are successful. Not sure how success is determined, but that's a really low number. Let's wait and see, but does look very promising for Miami.
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The way the math breaks down since the NFL went to a 7 round draft is roughly 1 out of every 10 players will end up succeeding. The success ratio really stays the same even if you go back before that. You're just swapping out what used to be 11th or 12th round picks for current day UDFA's.

The term success varying from Hall of Fame career down to remaining in the league as a solid role player for more than 2.5 years....the length of the average NFL career. Anywher inbetween is considered a success as a draft pick.

Here's why....on average, only around 80 players out of the 500-600 in any given draft year will have a career that falls somewhere between those two ranges.

250 or so draft picks from rounds 1-7, plus another 300 or so UDFA's, and only around 80 will manage to land in the success range when it's all said and done. And the majority of those will have come in the first 3 rounds.

In other words, the math says 9 out of 10 won't make it.
 
NRA said:
A cute interview doesn't intercept Tom Brady pass.

This is one reason I do not like this draft, its because of WHY they took certain players. There is a way to draft and a way not to and t-bum has never figured it out. Turning down a #1 pick a 3 and a 7 for a player who is sorely 1 dimentional when a sure fire, soon to be pro bowl olb is in your lap, a kid who probably will be this generations Ray Lewis. This is the same mistake ireland made trading out 20 spots when soon to be an all pro safety EARL THOMAS was in our lap at #3 and we NEEDED SÀFETY'S in the worst way at the time!!! We know how that went and the guy they took at the bottom is a nobody now in the NFL, a guy you only know if he has been on your team. This is part two of that collosal blunder.

Yeah, I know all the excuses of why they did it but all they did was talk themselves out of one of the best lb talents in a decade. Really, think about it, would you rather have a guy fail who everyone thought was a top 4 talent and a guy who would be on the field all game then a super, one dimentional part time player? If we chose Foster and he busted, NO ONE would have blamed us for taking him, especially at #22!! But choosing a part time player who can't stop the run over foster will make the front office laughing stocks for sure if and likely when he busts. Plus, there was a dozen other guys with just as much or better pass rush than Harris who were still available and not one dimentionable part timers who we could have had.

The other big draft no-no is locking on player so hard your tunnel vision blinds you to better opportunities that may present themselves, and they did with Harris big time. Harris was in no way shape or form worth giving up a #1, a 3 and 7 over. He is not that good or value of a player to turn that kind of bounty down!! How envious were you seeing all the teams with multiple first rounders and seconds and thirds take great player after great player? We could have added better players this year and started next year with 2 number 1 picks!!! The lack of strategy in drafting has killed Miami for years. If you look at the real quality teams in the NFL, they took opportunities to better not only the draft at hand but future drafts. Nobody turns down a a 1st round and 3rd choice for a one dimentional, part time player who would have still been there 10-20 picks later (or more). No one needing lb TALENT as bad as us should be passing on maybe the best all around lb, sure fire pro bowler for a one trick, PART TIME player. BAD DRAFTING AND STRATEGY!!!!!

As I told Mr. Lol in another thread, come talk to me at the end of December. Then tell me how awful my take is. TANKERSLEY? They loved the interview. That's all I hear from them and the fans. You dont lock on to any player with complete blindness to anything else and you don't get sweet talked in an interview!!! Where is the "we chose him because he can handle every wr New England has"? I havnt heard that from them. Only how wonderful he was in his interview. I am not as down on tank as I am Harris but, again, they broke another BIG draft rule the good teams don't do. Plus, t-bum and grier drafted like we're truly a playoff team and just need some depth or have luxery of taking chances. We ARE NOT A TRUE PLAYOFF TEAM and this draft didn't bring us any closer. ASIATA was a good choice and we probably have our left guard but still, not enough playmakers on defense to get us through new England and through this brutal schedule full of playoff and strong teams who won't be missing half there players.

Blind leading the blind, AGAIN!!!
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Don't really agree with the ray lewis thing, can't really predict a player that good, however he would have been a much better choice than harris who likely would have been around in the 2nd and did you say they were gonna give us an extra one and a 3rd/7th? That's what they gave 26 right? And we were 22 so more stuff? Wow this FO, that's just insanity right there to turn that down, i heard grier say he didn't even look at the offers which is even crazier! I would have loved the trade down and taken watt who I liked a lot, prolly my fave lb in the draft, and we desperately needed the extra picks.

People really cling to sheep mindsets, so don't blame them for saying "we have to take de in the first", everybody said it so everybody followed suit, we didn't have to take de in the first at all, it was a terrible idea, as you saw we could have very easily have had willis in the 2nd who is a much better de than harris, and everybody on this board was spamming that pre draft, now all of a sudden they change their tune cuz the fo did something else...bahhh. It was a very deep de class and what do you do in that situation, you draft one later on like willis, perfect example, you don't rush him when he's not gonna get much pt, hurt your signing of branch more and you have needs of a lot of actual starters.

We are not a team that has the luxury of drafting guys we might use sometimes because we are a complete team, we had lots of holes and only some of them got filled because of bad rounds 1 and 3 picks and pure luck so many good players fell to us so late. Asiata would have been gone in late 1 and early 2 in a regular draft, a lot of teams overdrafted qbs, rbs, wrs, which made rounds 2-5 of this draft even better than they already were. This could have been the best dolphins draft ever yet it only ends up as a C because of how bad the dolphins FO is at drafting, if it wasn't for insane luck in both drafts most would be giving both drafts a c or less. Think about it, no tunsil, bad draft, no asiata, bad draft, pure luck both turned out decent, no way either of those players should have been near those spots we got them.

Fans will never stop thinking everything the fo does is peaches and cream despite the last 8 years of the same bs, but they had one winning season, he must be don shula! Superbowl! They never look at what actually happened, they just say YAY we got a de not looking at the picks we gave up to take him or that we didn't need him or that we didn't fill a bunch of extra holes we could have or how much luck we had to even make both of these drafts decent. People are gonna say negativity or troll or other bs just to cover up the facts, its just how it happened, its not positive or negative one way or the other, people can't handle that, they have to have it how they want it in their head, i'll give you guys a hint, that does you no favors.
 
It was an OK draft. Raek Mac is cool. So is Ford.

2 years of not the best pick management.

Kiper is living the American dream. He's laughing all the way to his pumpkin pie...Way to go Mel
 
Draft grades the day after the draft are presumptuous and premature. Analysts have little understanding of teams' rationale for selections and weren't present for the workouts and interviews. Kiper had a cow last year when the Falcons selected Keanu Neal at #18 last season but redrafted him as a top 15 player less than a year later. He takes offense when teams show how little he really knows by daring to have their team-specific big boards that look nothing like his. He is knowledgeable but his arrogance is as off-putting as his hair.
 
dolphinlifer said:
Don't really agree with the ray lewis thing, can't really predict a player that good, however he would have been a much better choice than harris who likely would have been around in the 2nd and did you say they were gonna give us an extra one and a 3rd/7th? That's what they gave 26 right? And we were 22 so more stuff? Wow this FO, that's just insanity right there to turn that down, i heard grier say he didn't even look at the offers which is even crazier! I would have loved the trade down and taken watt who I liked a lot, prolly my fave lb in the draft, and we desperately needed the extra picks.

People really cling to sheep mindsets, so don't blame them for saying "we have to take de in the first", everybody said it so everybody followed suit, we didn't have to take de in the first at all, it was a terrible idea, as you saw we could have very easily have had willis in the 2nd who is a much better de than harris, and everybody on this board was spamming that pre draft, now all of a sudden they change their tune cuz the fo did something else...bahhh. It was a very deep de class and what do you do in that situation, you draft one later on like willis, perfect example, you don't rush him when he's not gonna get much pt, hurt your signing of branch more and you have needs of a lot of actual starters.

We are not a team that has the luxury of drafting guys we might use sometimes because we are a complete team, we had lots of holes and only some of them got filled because of bad rounds 1 and 3 picks and pure luck so many good players fell to us so late. Asiata would have been gone in late 1 and early 2 in a regular draft, a lot of teams overdrafted qbs, rbs, wrs, which made rounds 2-5 of this draft even better than they already were. This could have been the best dolphins draft ever yet it only ends up as a C because of how bad the dolphins FO is at drafting, if it wasn't for insane luck in both drafts most would be giving both drafts a c or less. Think about it, no tunsil, bad draft, no asiata, bad draft, pure luck both turned out decent, no way either of those players should have been near those spots we got them.

Fans will never stop thinking everything the fo does is peaches and cream despite the last 8 years of the same bs, but they had one winning season, he must be don shula! Superbowl! They never look at what actually happened, they just say YAY we got a de not looking at the picks we gave up to take him or that we didn't need him or that we didn't fill a bunch of extra holes we could have or how much luck we had to even make both of these drafts decent. People are gonna say negativity or troll or other bs just to cover up the facts, its just how it happened, its not positive or negative one way or the other, people can't handle that, they have to have it how they want it in their head, i'll give you guys a hint, that does you no favors.
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I couldn't disagree with your post more. Talk about BS. Now that the draft is over it's easy to say what we should and shouldn't have done. As for Grier, I'm not gonna fault him for wanting to stay with guys they targeted pre-draft. How many times does he have to say it? He's trying to find guys who fit in with our new dolphins culture, which for me is one reason why our team is improving. Sorry that's all peaches and cream to you, but I am one of those who think we are heading in the right direction. Oh, and hell yeah, I love Gase! He did a heck of a job last year, so why wouldn't I hope he's the next Don Shula? He's a lot better than what we have had in a very, very, long time.
 
It is interesting that they are being guilted of leaving better talent on the table by some of these sources. Time will tell how good of a GM and scout team we have.
 
Bills get straight A's yet the GM gets canned for everyone basically saying the dude just the franchise back 10 years with that atrocious draft.
 
I think people need to consider that coaching will play a big factor into how well these draft picks turn out. Ya, it's a deep draft but how many teams will be able to coach up their picks and use them in a way that maximizing their strengths and develop on their weaknesses?

I think this will be a successful draft because it feels like our coaching stuff knows exactly what they need to make our team successful and will be able to coach them up accordingly.
 
Beach Bum 91 said:
I couldn't disagree with your post more. Talk about BS. Now that the draft is over it's easy to say what we should and shouldn't have done. As for Grier, I'm not gonna fault him for wanting to stay with guys they targeted pre-draft. How many times does he have to say it? He's trying to find guys who fit in with our new dolphins culture, which for me is one reason why our team is improving. Sorry that's all peaches and cream to you, but I am one of those who think we are heading in the right direction. Oh, and hell yeah, I love Gase! He did a heck of a job last year, so why wouldn't I hope he's the next Don Shula? He's a lot better than what we have had in a very, very, long time.
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Bs because its true? I love how you ignore that part where i mentioned how the EXACT same thing happened with sparano and philbin, anything positive they do, even if its only 8 wins and its all gravy, just ignore all the negatives and act like it's all good, gase did goodish in his first year, mismanaged players(didn't cut thomas or turner til what 5 games in when everybody knew they've been terrible for endless years, and look what happened when he cut them, wow such a miracle, and not taking ajayi to that seattle game likely lost it, if we had his running there its probably the dfference in a very close game that we could have gotten a good lead plenty of times), didn't improve playcalling til later in the year, only called agressive calls when he was forced to 90% of the time, and the players bailed him out of 2-3 or 3-4 wins, couldn't remember exactly the number, but he sure didn't earn no 10 win season, especially after a 1-4 start.

But no, it's all positive, don shula, superbowl! He is better than what we've had for a while but he didn't do better than what campbell did with what he had, so lets not go crowning him the next whatever just yet, oh and there will never be another don, sorry, not gonna happen. Like i said look at what he has done, stop wishing things were this or that, the only bs here is what you wish things were, I'm only calling them what they are, aka what has happened to this point.
 
HarryBagpipe said:
Never understood the post draft grades. Prisco gives 2 grades lower than a C. NFL gave all As and Bs minus 2 teams. You'll see a dozen As and no Fs. I know it's the day of everyone getting a trophey but sheesh. Many teams will have botched the draft. We just don't know which ones yet
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It was a draft very deep with a lot of really solid mid-rounders that in other years would have been higher picks. Teams were able to fill their needs with prospects who at least at draft time seem like they have a good chance of contributing. Why give F's just to give F's?

Yes of course some teams' drafts won't have worked well in the long run, but you grade drafts based on the reasonable likelihood of draft picks to succeed as well as how they matched their team's needs and whether or not they were good value based on where they were picked. That's how it works when you are projecting the future and if you think its silly that they won't get everything right in their grades since they don't know the future, why are you even paying attention to it?
 
Ruckus45 said:
Mel was a real ass during the draft. Really was unwatchable. He is prob about to get let go by BSPN and knows it.
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I know who he is people who watch the draft back in the 90's probably knows where that comment comes from.
[video=youtube;ouOQr8W12jo]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouOQr8W12jo[/video]
 
Beach Bum 91 said:
I couldn't disagree with your post more. Talk about BS. Now that the draft is over it's easy to say what we should and shouldn't have done. As for Grier, I'm not gonna fault him for wanting to stay with guys they targeted pre-draft. How many times does he have to say it? He's trying to find guys who fit in with our new dolphins culture, which for me is one reason why our team is improving. Sorry that's all peaches and cream to you, but I am one of those who think we are heading in the right direction. Oh, and hell yeah, I love Gase! He did a heck of a job last year, so why wouldn't I hope he's the next Don Shula? He's a lot better than what we have had in a very, very, long time.
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Don't forget. It's not watching the games that made it apparent we need a dynamic pass rusher, it's the sheep mentality. :lol: It amazes me what passes as football knowledge here sometimes. You don't even have to be an expert. That's basic stuff. Someone who isn't a football fan could've watched the games last year and came to the same conclusion at all without "joining the herd."
 
Well, the Washington post is obviously fake news. So we can take their draft grade and chalk it up to propaganda... But yeah, NFL.com was all Oprah Winfrey-ish with their A's.

You gotta be really bored to time travel back to the 90's and read USA Today.

Let's see, reading the senile royalty of sports magazines that is Sports Illustrated is like getting draft grades from Queen Elizabeth. Peter King is the little Lord Fauntleroy of the NFL, there I said it...
 
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