ckparrothead
Premium Member
The strength of schedule gap has narrowed to 0.20 now? That's good news. It narrowed pretty significantly this weekend.
Draft order as of 10/30/2011 - two games pending and a new player for Luck
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hoops
Tua time!
yeah but when the chiefs beat us sunday our strength of sched goes up right??? make no mistake...thats the kind of win teams rally around...the chiefs may start slow but they'll rally to whoop us...and i tell ya what...that tamba hali sack from his knees was fantastic...not to mention antwan barnes looked shot out of a cannon off the edge multiple times today for the chargers...i still can't believe he got inked to only a 3 year $4.5 like mil deal and we didn't get involved in that bidding...what a freakin steal
ckparrothead
Premium Member
That's true. There's a baked in underestimation of the Dolphins' strength of schedule relative to the Colts because the Dolphins have had their bye week and the Colts have not. So, while the Colts have been forced to contribute 8 wins to the win columns of their opponents (which pumps their SOS up to 0.546), the Dolphins have only had to pump 7 wins into their opponents' win columns. When the Colts have their bye and the Dolphins lose that week to Buffalo, that 0.20 disparity or whatever it will be by then is probably going to jump back out to a 0.26 or something like that.
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Indy plays KC too, so KC beating us has no effect on the SoS. Indy does not play SD, so that's why KC winning tonight vs SD helps us. It's a wash for us (as we've played both teams), but not for Indy.
ticophin
Starter
I don´t know who´s worse, Mat Moore or Matt Cassell...Jeezus he sucks!!!
the Cardinals still have two games against St. Louis and a home-game against Seattle left. they'll win one or two of those IMO. now Indy, unless Manning comes back this year, they're probably going winless.
It goes up for Indy too. The fact that we play the entire division helps though because it all evens out in the division. Colts play the AFC North and with the way Cincy is playing right now that division could end up with a significantly better win-loss percentage than the AFC West thanks to Denver. Cleveland will win more than Denver. So you got Pitt (6-2), Balt (5-2), Cincy (5-2) and Cle (3-4) for the Colts against K.C. (4-3), S.D. (4-3), Oak (4-3) and Denver (2-5) for us. That's in our favor.
Yep, it's narrowed pretty signifcantly this week. It was .051 last week now it's down to .020.
New top 15:
1. 0-8 Indy SOS .546
2. 0-7 Miami SOS .566
3. 1-6 Arizona SOS .483
4. 1-6 St. Louis SOS .553
5. 2-6 Carolina SOS .504
6. 2-6 Jacksonville SOS .504
7. 2-6 Minnesota SOS .578
8. 2-5 Seattle SOS .504
9. 2-5 Denver SOS .579
10. 3-4 Washington SOS .439
11. 3-4 Philadelphia SOS .482
12. 3-4 Cleveland SOS .487
13. 3-4 Dallas SOS .500
14. 4-3 Tennessee SOS .455
15. 4-3 Atlanta SOS .471
ckparrothead
Premium Member
Speaking purely on the Indianapolis vs Miami battle for Andrew Luck, we should be cheering for the following:
(FOR WIN-LOSS PURPOSES ONLY)
1. Indianapolis over Atlanta (obvious)
2. Kansas City over Miami (obvious)
(FOR STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE PURPOSES)
3. San Francisco over Washington (seems likely)
4. Green Bay over San Diego (seems likely)
5. Houston over Cleveland (seems likely)
6. Chicago over Philadelphia (questionable)
7. Tennessee over Cincinnati (questionable)
8. Seattle over Dallas (not likely)
Now, let's pretend that both the Colts and Dolphins lose again this week. If #2 thru #6 all happen the way I have them illustrated, then the Dolphins' strength of schedule will have fallen below the Colts' strength of schedule. The Colts' SOS is currently 0.546 and the Dolphins' is currently 0.566. But if the 49ers beat the Redskins, the Packers beat the Chargers, the Texans beat the Browns, the Bears beat the Eagles, the Titans beat the Bengals and the Seahawks beat the Cowboys, then the Dolphins' SOS goes to 0.550 while the Colts' SOS jumps up to 0.561. That would give the Dolphins the tie-break (temporarily).
We'll just have to see what actually happens though.
(FOR WIN-LOSS PURPOSES ONLY)
1. Indianapolis over Atlanta (obvious)
2. Kansas City over Miami (obvious)
(FOR STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE PURPOSES)
3. San Francisco over Washington (seems likely)
4. Green Bay over San Diego (seems likely)
5. Houston over Cleveland (seems likely)
6. Chicago over Philadelphia (questionable)
7. Tennessee over Cincinnati (questionable)
8. Seattle over Dallas (not likely)
Now, let's pretend that both the Colts and Dolphins lose again this week. If #2 thru #6 all happen the way I have them illustrated, then the Dolphins' strength of schedule will have fallen below the Colts' strength of schedule. The Colts' SOS is currently 0.546 and the Dolphins' is currently 0.566. But if the 49ers beat the Redskins, the Packers beat the Chargers, the Texans beat the Browns, the Bears beat the Eagles, the Titans beat the Bengals and the Seahawks beat the Cowboys, then the Dolphins' SOS goes to 0.550 while the Colts' SOS jumps up to 0.561. That would give the Dolphins the tie-break (temporarily).
We'll just have to see what actually happens though.
AquaInferno
Pro Bowler
Thanks for the SOS breakdown... After hearing about Manning not playing this year I'm about to have a breakdown SOS!
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ckparrothead
Premium Member
I wouldn't necessarily swallow that one hook, line and sinker yet. They're leaving Manning open to practicing with the team. If he gets into practice and starts practicing well and feeling good, I can imagine him pushing them to let him suit up for a game. All it may take is one victory that you wouldn't have counted on, and they're out of the Suck For Luck race...and I know Manning himself does NOT want any part of Andrew Luck sitting behind him. Peyton could pull a power play here.
AquaInferno
Pro Bowler
I hope so CK... The Peyton Manning spin is our best shot at Luck. I am convinced if he stops them from drafting him or they just don't then Luck is ours.
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lol, I feel better knowing someone else is playing all these scenarios through like I am every week.
ckparrothead
Premium Member
I think the Colts win at least one game without him, and if he comes back, I think they win one game with him as well. If he never comes out, then at worse IMO we have a situation where the Colts are 1-15 and the Dolphins are 1-15 and the strength of schedule becomes key. But the strength of schedule could sway in our favor as early as next week.
ckparrothead
Premium Member
Here is a set of final regular season records that would result in Dolphins having the SOS tiebreak over the Colts. On the right side, I have a note telling you whether the Colts or Dolphins would receive a benefit if the team in question finished WORSE than the record stated.
ATL :: 10 - 6 :: Colts
BAL :: 12 - 4 :: Colts
BUF :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins x2
CAR :: 4 - 12 :: Colts
CIN :: 10 - 6 :: Colts
CLE :: 6 - 10 :: Neutral
DAL :: 6 - 10 :: Dolphins
DEN :: 4 - 12 :: Dolphins
HOU :: 11 - 5 :: Colts
JAX :: 4 - 12 :: Colts x2
KAN :: 10 - 6 :: Neutral
NE :: 12 - 4 :: Dolphins
NOR :: 11 - 5 :: Colts
NYG :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins
NYJ :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins x2
OAK :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins
PHI :: 6 - 10 :: Dolphins
PIT :: 11 - 5 :: Colts
SDG :: 8 - 8 :: Dolphins
TAM :: 8 - 8 :: Colts
TEN :: 10 - 6 :: Colts x2
WAS :: 6 - 10 :: Dolphins
ATL :: 10 - 6 :: Colts
BAL :: 12 - 4 :: Colts
BUF :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins x2
CAR :: 4 - 12 :: Colts
CIN :: 10 - 6 :: Colts
CLE :: 6 - 10 :: Neutral
DAL :: 6 - 10 :: Dolphins
DEN :: 4 - 12 :: Dolphins
HOU :: 11 - 5 :: Colts
JAX :: 4 - 12 :: Colts x2
KAN :: 10 - 6 :: Neutral
NE :: 12 - 4 :: Dolphins
NOR :: 11 - 5 :: Colts
NYG :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins
NYJ :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins x2
OAK :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins
PHI :: 6 - 10 :: Dolphins
PIT :: 11 - 5 :: Colts
SDG :: 8 - 8 :: Dolphins
TAM :: 8 - 8 :: Colts
TEN :: 10 - 6 :: Colts x2
WAS :: 6 - 10 :: Dolphins