Great article saying Gase conservative offense doesn't fit Parker's Elite skill set.

[Jerrysanders]

That may be a bit optimistic for this offense but IMO, not due his lack of talent. The 2014 Broncos passed the ball almost 600 times that year and only rushed 442 times. Well over 1000 offensive plays. We have the luxury of Jay Ajayi so that won't happen but I expect the offense to get more snaps than the 882 they had last year. Closer to 1000. 520 passing and 480 rushing attempts.

Will we at least throw the ball more than 29.8 times a game in 2017 ?

Don't quit your day job Jon ledyard

Jon Ledyard is a highly respected Draft analyst espescially among the Twitter draft community. The facts are indisputable; going from 19.9 to 13.3 for Devante even tho he was a much better player in 2016 can only be attributed to a difference in Offense Philosophy. Don't forget the Dolphins targeted Parker because they felt he was perfect for Bill Lazor's offense.

 

[russianbear]

Bad offensive line means more quick passes. Makes it doubly ****ing stupid as to why we didn't address the guard and eventual center issue this off season.

we did - see asiata and larsen (can play c)

 

[Avigatorx]

Will we at least throw the ball more than 29.8 times a game in 2017 ?

Jon Ledyard is a highly respected Draft analyst espescially among the Twitter draft community. The facts are indisputable; going from 19.9 to 13.3 for Devante even tho he was a much better player in 2016 can only be attributed to a difference in Offense Philosophy. Don't forget the Dolphins targeted Parker because they felt he was perfect for Bill Lazor's offense.

Not really.

The first assumption is that he was a better player in 2016, he was not.

The second being that it was the change in offensive philosophy that caused his decline, it was not. Lazor's offense was more dink and dunk than Gase's

Parker was hampered by injury during the first part of the season and subsequently lacked targets because he simply was not getting open. Stills had no problem taking up the slack that Parker was leaving on the field. I could be wrong here, and dont know his numbers, but look up what stills YPC were in 15 compared to 16. I'm guessing they were higher.

The plays will be there for Parker, but he has to get his ass open downfield.

 

[Sherif]

Our offense was ranked 24th in the NFL, our passing offense was ranked 26; Tannehill and Alex Smith had the highest screen percentage at 13.96% and 13.62% but Smith's yards per screen were 8.85 compared to Tannehill's 4.53 (landry screens were highly ineffective). Calling our offense conservative is understatement; Ajayi and Drake had more 40 yd runs than any other rb group in the NFL ; and Tannehill is near the bottom of the league in terms of air yardage meaning our receivers yac contributed to many of our big plays, which is the reason we ranked so highly in terms of big plays.

If we get more offensive plays, Tannehill will take more shots downfield. Statistically the offense was not successful last year and the W-L record doesn't disprove that.

 

[Jerrysanders]

Not really.

The first assumption is that he was a better player in 2016, he was not.

The second being that it was the change in offensive philosophy that caused his decline, it was not. Lazor's offense was more dink and dunk than Gase's

Parker was hampered by injury during the first part of the season and subsequently lacked targets because he simply was not getting open. Stills had no problem taking up the slack that Parker was leaving on the field. I could be wrong here, and dont know his numbers, but look up what stills YPC were in 15 compared to 16. I'm guessing they were higher.

The plays will be there for Parker, but he has to get his *** open downfield.

I'm sorry but advanced stats show Parker was extremely effecient this year and just from a technique standpoint he was much better in 2016. Lazor was still smart enough not to dink and dunk with DVP which is why he averaged 19.9 yards, someone should give Gase the memo.

 

[Avigatorx]

I'm sorry but advanced stats show Parker was extremely effecient this year and just from a technique standpoint he was much better in 2016. Lazor was still smart enough not to dink and dunk with DVP which is why he averaged 19.9 yards, someone should give Gase the memo.

Which stats show that?

And if they are provided, please show a direct comparison to Stills #s.

Also, please show me where Lazor let Tanny take more shots downfield than Gase. I'm just going from memory, but I'd be shocked if that was true.

 

[beanh8er]

A few points here

1) being 24th in total offense is relatively impressive you consider we had the least plays run in the league by a wide margin(40 plays less than 31) . That means our average yard per play was very high.
2) a receiver going from an astronomically high ypc to a lower ypc is not an indicator that the receiver regressed. In reality he was running a more complete route tree featuring more short-intermediate routes.
3) you have to be willfully ignoring that Kenny Stills had one of the highest yards per catch in the NFL and that Jarvis's yards per catch increased.
4) Average screen distance is not a useful statistic at all, the median would be much more useful in this case.

 

[hoops]

Will we at least throw the ball more than 29.8 times a game in 2017 ?

Jon Ledyard is a highly respected Draft analyst espescially among the Twitter draft community. The facts are indisputable; going from 19.9 to 13.3 for Devante even tho he was a much better player in 2016 can only be attributed to a difference in Offense Philosophy. Don't forget the Dolphins targeted Parker because they felt he was perfect for Bill Lazor's offense.

He's so highly respected he doesn't even know that lazors offense or philbins as he called it in Miami was horizontal and short passing game based. Which how exactly fits dvp more?

Furthermore the offense Adam gase brought is vertical based. Thus guys like juice Landry got a bump in his ypc in 2016.

In lazors offense Miami ran a ton of clear outs and tried to outflank the opposition horizontally and when we did take pa shots they were of the intermediate level.

Its kinda like the ypa from the qb in 2015 from lazor everyone said it was qb based insert competence in the play caller and offensive design and situational play calling in Adam gase and shocker the ypa jumps. Clearly indicating it wasn't a qb deficiency but an offense one.

At any rate if they can stick with this no huddle tempo add in gases terrific usage of formation and personnel and ability to design ways to show teams different looks and how well he manages the game and knows to strike when the irons hot and miamis offense is gonna put up some serious points.

They play that no huddle tempo and I will bet anyone here that our offense will finish top 10 provided we dont have major difference maker attrition set in. Top 5 being a real possibility.

 

[NY8123]

 

[where's th'fish]

Our offense was ranked 24th in the NFL, our passing offense was ranked 26; Tannehill and Alex Smith had the highest screen percentage at 13.96% and 13.62% but Smith's yards per screen were 8.85 compared to Tannehill's 4.53 (landry screens were highly ineffective). Calling our offense conservative is understatement; Ajayi and Drake had more 40 yd runs than any other rb group in the NFL ; and Tannehill is near the bottom of the league in terms of air yardage meaning our receivers yac contributed to many of our big plays, which is the reason we ranked so highly in terms of big plays.

Actually last season was Tannehill's most aggressive ever. The best metric to measure conservativeness in a QB is called ALEX -named after Alex Smith. Tanehill ranked 13th in the league last year after posting very low Alex's in previous years.
http:// http://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/alex-season-review
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/alex-season-review

For those new to this metric, it is called Air Less EXpected, or ALEX for short. ALEX measures the average difference between how far a quarterback threw a pass (air yards) and how many yards he needed for a first down. If a quarterback throws a pass 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage on third-and-15, then that would be minus-20 ALEX.

 

[Digital]

I don't know that we're going to pass enough for Parker to get those numbers, Landry to get his, get decent use of Stills and then also feed Thomas at tight end. All that plus getting Ajayi 350 rush attempts and more involved in the passing game seems like a tall order.

I think for Parker to have monster numbers either Landry or Stills numbers will have to take a serious dip. I would me ok with more Parker, a little less Landry and the same from Stills, but we'll see how it plays out. I'm trying not to look at stats when it comes to judging Parker, because there are always other factors that control how many targets you get.

Well if everyone stays healthy, you have a point. But honestly, it's more reasonable to assume that someone gets injured. Julius Thomas doesn't have a very good attendance record over the last two years ... in fact it's worse than Koa Misi's. I'm hoping he stays healthy this year ... but I'm not really banking on 16 games from him. The next most likely to be injured is actually DVP himself, but obviously, for him to get those numbers he needs to remain healthy.

Last year we were over-reliant on Jarvis Landry. When times got tough, we went to Landry regardless of coverage. That's not the best way to do it, but we simply didn't have enough people stepping up during the tough times. If Parker is going to make this leap, then he needs to become one of those guys. If he does, then he'll get a lot more targets, and those numbers are reachable.

 

[Digital]

Actually last season was Tannehill's most aggressive ever. The best metric to measure conservativeness in a QB is called ALEX -named after Alex Smith. Tanehill ranked 13th in the league last year after posting very low Alex's in previous years.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/alex-season-review

One thing to remember about that statistic, is that it is skewed towards better run games. For example, if we have 2 QB's who always throw the ball 10 yards through the air, here's how it would play out.

Team A has a great run game, so first down, they gain 6 yards. Then on 2nd and 4 the defense puts 8 men into the box, and the QB throws against a run defense, completing a pass traveling 10 yards in the air ... that's +6 ALEX, because it's 4 yards to the first down, then +6 because the pass traveled 10 yards in the air (10-4=6).

Team B has no run game, so on first down they run and gain 2 yards. Then on 2nd and 8 the defense either blitzes or drops 6 guys into coverage, both of which make for a harder situation facing the QB. Still, the QB completes a pass traveling 10 yards in the air, so he has a +2 ALEX, because it is 8 yards to the first down, then +2 because the pass traveled 10 yards in the air (10-8=2). So, the QB on Team B actually had a significantly harder situation because his team's run game was not as good ... and even though he did well, he is rewarded less than the QB that completed an identical pass with the same yardage through the air.

Those sort of stats are the ones that fail to take into account other things, like the team's run game. If you can compare teams with very similar run games, then it has a good usage. But until we compare some of those externalities, it's hard to judge.

This is where it's usually better if we can see the down and distance, score, and know more about the teams. On it's own, it's very hard for any metric to really capture individual performance in such an interdependent team game.

ALEX can be a useful statistic, but it's really a general tool more than a specific one. If I were only allowed one stat, I might consider yards per attempt or TD/INT ratio ... but none of them really capture how well a QB is doing very effectively. Still, good to look at all of them as part of the analysis.

 

[Stefins]

This article is HOGWASH

 

[A500]

I love Tannehill as the Dolphins Qb, that being said, I have one single problem with Tannehill, just one. And that is, he doesn't often throw those 50/50 balls and let his receivers make plays on the ball. I see it all around the league at least a couple times a game. Tannehill just isn't aggressive that often. I saw a while back Gase said he wanted Tannehill to take shots. And if he does, my prediction is this team shoots up in the offensive rankings. I think if Tannehill does that, people will start recognizing Tannehill as elite

 

[Eesti]

SMH thats Peyton Mannings offense, Gase gets no credit for that. Peyton has been quoted saying Gase was very willing to learn.

Actually he said....

"I'm very happy for Adam," Manning said. "Adam had a great impact on me during our three years together here in Denver as my quarterbacks coach and then as offensive coordinator.

"He's an extremely hard worker -- a grinder. He's extremely bright on all things football, an excellent communicator and always eager to learn more. He asks a lot of questions and writes everything down. I've always been impressed with his work ethic and his eagerness to learn more.

"He'll be an excellent head coach, without a doubt. He is ready for this, for sure."

and then there was this....

“Adam is a lot like me in that he’s always thinking of how we can do something better or different — or both,” Manning said. “And he has an almost photographic memory. He can recall a defensive scheme we saw from eight games back and remember our exact formation and the play called.”

Manning said last week. “It is about what he can do to make me and the offense better. Adam has a lot of experience and knowledge in that arena.”

Between plays on the field, Peyton Manning appears just a bit unhinged. The body language is manic, an eruption of gesticulating arms, twiddling fingers and fidgeting, stamping feet.

It is as if he hears voices in his head.

And for several seconds between each play, through tiny speakers in his helmet, Manning is listening to someone. It is a big responsibility to be the person talking in Manning’s ear. That person calls the plays that could decide Sunday’s Super Bowl for the Denver Broncos. It is a job that would seem to take on-field experience.

But Adam Gase, the 35-year-old offensive coordinator who instructs Manning between plays, never played professional or college football. On his high school team, he was an average player. And this season is the first time he has called plays at any level. Oh, yes, and in 2013 Gase designed and directed an offense that scored more points in a season than any other team in N.F.L. history.

“Smartest guy I know” — Peyton Manning.

Knapp gives Gase full credit for the Broncos' up-tempo offense that kept defenses on their heels all season long.

"I'm telling you it's very special," Knapp continued. "It's special to hear how fast we call plays and how fast (Manning) processes it week in and week out ... It's just play fast, play up-tempo and push it, push it, push it. And it's hard to do that if you don't have the play-caller or the decision-maker (at quarterback). And it's really been impressive."

To say he gets NO credit for that season is beyond ridiculous. I think Manning would tell a different story. In fact, he did.