ckparrothead
Premium Member
You have no idea how extensive a piece I just had written out that got completely wiped out by a lightning bolt.
This is like a video game where I work hard and forget to save for a little bit then unexpectedly die and have to start over. I usually just toss up the controls and forego playing the game for like, a week before I can build the stamina to do it all again.
So, rather than the extensive piece, he's my pick board...with a few notes.
Early First Rounders
DE Mario Williams
DT Haloti Ngata
LB Chad Greenway
LB AJ Hawk
OL D'Brickashaw Ferguson
QB Matt Leinart
QB Vince Young
QB Jay Cutler
RB DeAngelo Williams
RB Reggie Bush
S Michael Huff
TE Vernon Davis
Middle First Rounders
CB Jimmy Williams
DL Broderick Bunkley
DL Gabe Watson
DL Manny Lawson
DL Tamba Hali
LB DeMeco Ryans
OT Winston Justice
RB LenDale White
WR Santonio Holmes
Late First Rounders
CB Antonio Cromartie
CB Ashton Youboty
CB Tye Hill
DL Mathias Kiwanuka
LB Bobby Carpenter
OL Marcus McNeill
OL Max Jean-Gilles
OL Jonathan Scott
RB Laurence Maroney
S Ko Simpson
TE Leonard Pope
Second Rounders
LB Abdul Hodge
TE Anthony Fasano
QB Brodie Croyle
WR Chad Jackson
S Daniel Bullocks
S Darnell Bing
OL Davin Joseph
WR Derek Hagan
LB D'Qwell Jackson
CB Johnathan Joseph
RB Joseph Addai
LB Kai Parham
TE Marcedes Lewis
WR Maurice Stovall
OL Nick Mangold
DT Rodrique Wright
WR Sinorice Moss
LB Thomas Howard
Late Second Rounders
DT Babatunde Oshinowo
RB Brian Calhoun
OL Charles Spencer
DL Darryl Tapp
TE Dominique Byrd
OL Eric Winston
S Greg Blue
S Jason Allen
DL Mark Anderson
DL Orien Harris
S Pat Watkins
DE Ray Edwards
LB Spencer Havner
DL Victor Adeyanju
Third Rounders
CB Anwar Phillips
CB Alan Zemaitis
CB Demario Minter
DE Stanley McClover
DE James Wyche
DL Kamerion Wimbley
DL Kyle Williams
LB Ernie Sims
OL Ryan O'Callaghan
OT Andrew Whitworth
RB Jerome Harrison
WR Travis Wilson
Third/Fourth Rounders
CB Cedric Griffin
CB Kelly Jennings
CB Richard Marshall
DE Eric Henderson
DL Dusty Dvoracek
DL Parys Haralson
DT Claude Wroten
LB Freddie Roach
LB Cameron Vaughn
LB Clint Ingram
LB Gerris Wilkinson
LB Anthony Schlegel
OG Rob Sims
OG Jason Spitz
OL Daryn Colledge
OL Ryan Cook
OL Duece Lutui
QB Charlie Whitehurst
QB Reggie McNeal
QB Omar Jacobs
RB Leon Washington
RB Andre Hall
S Bernard Pollard
S Roman Harper
S Dwayne Slay
TE Joe Klopfenstein
TE Tim Day
WR Mike Hass
WR Jonathon Orr
WR Hank Baskett
WR Demetrius Williams
WR Brandon Marshall
First off, until you put everyone together on a board you'd be really surprised what kinds of players sneak into the first round when you need to fit 32 players in there. Same with the second round.
That said, here's my top 10 board for pick #16.
1. DT Haloti Ngata: One of only two players in my "early first" section that I think could possibly fall, in this case due to Ngata playing at an unfavorable weight most of the year. He's a "planet theory" guy. If he stays this weight he's a boulder of a NT that requires two men to move, which opens up our crazy-@ss stunting DL to make plays against the runner behind the line of scrimmage. If he loses weight he adds versatility and possibly pass rush. He's got so much athleticism and versatility that you notice sometimes he plays off and lets linemen out to him so that he can basically play like a linebacker on the defensive line. Some of his woes are probably incurable (I doubt he'll ever be a pass rusher), some coachable (being more aggressive, hustling), others due to weight (hustling, not wearing down during games), and some just the style the coaches at Oregon wanted him to play (playing off instead of engaging).
2. DT Gabe Watson: This is another "planet theory" pick. Scouts know him well, he was a five star elite prospect out of prep and he's ridiculously athletic for 340 pounds. Going up against a North OL that featured the likes of Charles Spencer and Nick Mangold (both solid 2nd rounders), Gabe Watson was so disruptive that the North coaches actually had to remove him from drills so that the OL could get some constructive work done. That right there is about as high a compliment as I've ever seen a coaching staff give a player. In 2003 Kevin Williams went from third rounder to first rounder with the kind of senior bowl that Gabe had. He'd be an awesome NT for us, our own Vince Wilfork, maybe better.
3. OT Winston Justice: Hudson Houck did wonders with the pass protection on this OL but did anyone notice that he couldn't gain much traction in the run blocking? On 3rd and short Linehan called a ton of shotgun plays and not always was it Linehan's fault. The line couldn't block their way out of a paper bag in short yardage situations. Getting a RT like Justice will help Houck gain some traction in this area. Justice was coached by Tim Davis, so I expect he knows how special he is. He may even play LT, but he's plenty valuable as a RT.
4. DE/OLB Manny Lawson: Popular opinion says we have enough DEs. But look at the age factor. JT will be 32, Carter 33, Holliday 31, and even Bowens 29. All have been pros at least 7 years (up to 11 years for Carter). Lawson is a Taylor clone...ridiculously athletic (the vertical machine doesn't even go high enough to measure his vertical). At the Senior Bowl he showed off how good he was at disengaging blockers to make plays in the ground game not just as a speed rusher around the edge (sound familiar?). Remember how Saban said if Taylor played in Saban's system as a DE/OLB his whole career he'd be a hall of famer? Lawson would be Saban's do-over. In the short term he takes over for Bowens, who was significant enough in the rotation to gather 6 sacks this year. In the long term, he replaces JT. Pressure is the life blood of this defense. You can't overload this D with enough rushers. It's just not possible. Right now I have Lawson going #13 to the Browns.
5. QB Vince Young: Mularkey's history with Kordell Stewart is key here because that means he has experience working with this kind of QB and having success (3000+ yards passing for Kordella). Young has 10 times the heart of Kordell, is bigger, might be faster, is more accurate, and has more upside. That alone makes him intriguing here, since the elite talents of this draft are all likely to be gone by #16. I think the compatibility issues combined with his making a mistake with the throwing but not running thing at the Combine will have him fall a bit, and I just don't see as many compatibility issues for Miami now that Mularkey's here. Will he be a superstar QB? I still have my doubts. But he would be a good system QB here with a lot of heart and talent...with a shot at being a star. You can't get a better QB than this at #16 because they'll be gone (Leinart, Cutler). Brodie Croyle is not a better QB prospect than Young. Vince could contribute immediately as a rookie and second year man as an option WR, while he learns to be a good NFL QB.
6. CB/S Jimmy Williams: WRs are getting bigger and bigger every year (just look at this class, its full of size/speed stories). How long will teams like the Patriots get away with using mighty midgets to fight off the huge WRs in the league? Williams is far too talented to just take off the board. He's got tremendous potential at two positions of need for the phins, especially with teachers like Nick Saban and Mel Phillips on board to help him out. You can't sculpt a masterpiece without a huge chunk of marble and that's what Williams is.
7. LB Bobby Carpenter: This is MY prediction, alright, so don't start telling me stupid things like "Carpenter is projected to be a late first or even second rounder, we could get him by trading down" or something because you're not telling me something I don't already know. This is MY projection, I don't want to hear what Kiper has to say or what Rob Rang has to say or what insert-draftnik-here has to say. I wouldn't be doing this if I did not feel my own research and opinions were valid even if they disagree with those guys' stuff. My real job is to find stocks that have tremendous unrecognized value through growth prospects, safe characteristics, stability, etc and these are the things I see in Carpenter right now. His size is killer at a full 6'3" 255 lbs. His speed is killer at a supposed 4.58 relative to Greenway's 4.55 (according to NFL Draft Countdown). He doesn't have Greenway's polish or instincts, or cover skills, but he is a better blitzer, is better going up against blockers, and is the perfect guy for Saban to put in at SSLB to attack attack attack. He can slam his body into the mix and block lanes, rush the passer, and his speed is enough to keep up in coverage. He gets overshadowed by Hawk but when I saw the two play together it was Carpenter that drew my Saban-eye, not Hawk. I sense weakness in Demeco Ryans' story as a linebacker, stemming from his size issues. He's no longer viewed as a top 10 talent and that opens the door for the size/speed/attack combo (all things NFL scouts adore) of Carpenter to possibly rise above Demeco. By draft day I see him rising unless his numbers disappoint because of the injury.
8. CB Antonio Cromartie: Here's another fantastic size/athleticism combo. Not to mention he's so good with the ball. If he weren't such an unknown he'd be a top 10 selection. I believe he'll put many fears to rest with his workouts and when scouts look at the tape they'll see a raw corner who has the best pure corner ability in this entire draft. His hips are extremely quick and his size is amazing. Take him and you've got a stalwart on the outside for years.
9. DT Broderick Bunkley: He was a wrecking ball at the Senior Bowl before being concussed. All he did was add 15 pounds of bulk without losing speed or playmaking ability, and Saban noticed. They met a long time with Brod, and Saban thinks he can play end or tackle in our system (thanks to Boomer for the inside source). Bunkley was always a great playmaker at FSU and it pains me to put him even this far down my board...but I think we have some much more intriguing stories going on in the top 8 of my board.
10. CB Tye Hill/Ashton Youboty: I reserve judgment on which of these two when I learn more about Youboty, who is not getting much print right now. Tye Hill went up against the most impressive WRs in the draft (minus Santonio Holmes) and blanketed them in coverage. He stayed in their hip pocket at all times. Saban made a foot in mouth comment a long time ago about how 5'9" corners can be excellent, on someone else's team. Well, Tye is a solid 5'9" and can cover like crazy. His technique is excellent. What will ease Saban's mind is that Hill's 32.5 inch reach is abnormally long for a corner (longer than Eric Winston). He's got the reach of a 6 foot corner. That will help him get effective jams at the line and help him with his ball skills. Ashton Youboty did not terribly impress me against Notre Dame, but he's still a highly rated corner with good size at a need position. Of my top 10, this is the one I'm not so sure about...the Hill/Youboty thing...but for now this is who I have. I love Demeco Ryans but I think Saban avoids a SSLB with size issues like the plague...and would probably like to refrain from mixing up the LB situation to all hooey by putting Crowder in at SSLB and Demeco at WSLB.
And that is that. No power surges! Yay!
This is like a video game where I work hard and forget to save for a little bit then unexpectedly die and have to start over. I usually just toss up the controls and forego playing the game for like, a week before I can build the stamina to do it all again.
So, rather than the extensive piece, he's my pick board...with a few notes.
Early First Rounders
DE Mario Williams
DT Haloti Ngata
LB Chad Greenway
LB AJ Hawk
OL D'Brickashaw Ferguson
QB Matt Leinart
QB Vince Young
QB Jay Cutler
RB DeAngelo Williams
RB Reggie Bush
S Michael Huff
TE Vernon Davis
Middle First Rounders
CB Jimmy Williams
DL Broderick Bunkley
DL Gabe Watson
DL Manny Lawson
DL Tamba Hali
LB DeMeco Ryans
OT Winston Justice
RB LenDale White
WR Santonio Holmes
Late First Rounders
CB Antonio Cromartie
CB Ashton Youboty
CB Tye Hill
DL Mathias Kiwanuka
LB Bobby Carpenter
OL Marcus McNeill
OL Max Jean-Gilles
OL Jonathan Scott
RB Laurence Maroney
S Ko Simpson
TE Leonard Pope
Second Rounders
LB Abdul Hodge
TE Anthony Fasano
QB Brodie Croyle
WR Chad Jackson
S Daniel Bullocks
S Darnell Bing
OL Davin Joseph
WR Derek Hagan
LB D'Qwell Jackson
CB Johnathan Joseph
RB Joseph Addai
LB Kai Parham
TE Marcedes Lewis
WR Maurice Stovall
OL Nick Mangold
DT Rodrique Wright
WR Sinorice Moss
LB Thomas Howard
Late Second Rounders
DT Babatunde Oshinowo
RB Brian Calhoun
OL Charles Spencer
DL Darryl Tapp
TE Dominique Byrd
OL Eric Winston
S Greg Blue
S Jason Allen
DL Mark Anderson
DL Orien Harris
S Pat Watkins
DE Ray Edwards
LB Spencer Havner
DL Victor Adeyanju
Third Rounders
CB Anwar Phillips
CB Alan Zemaitis
CB Demario Minter
DE Stanley McClover
DE James Wyche
DL Kamerion Wimbley
DL Kyle Williams
LB Ernie Sims
OL Ryan O'Callaghan
OT Andrew Whitworth
RB Jerome Harrison
WR Travis Wilson
Third/Fourth Rounders
CB Cedric Griffin
CB Kelly Jennings
CB Richard Marshall
DE Eric Henderson
DL Dusty Dvoracek
DL Parys Haralson
DT Claude Wroten
LB Freddie Roach
LB Cameron Vaughn
LB Clint Ingram
LB Gerris Wilkinson
LB Anthony Schlegel
OG Rob Sims
OG Jason Spitz
OL Daryn Colledge
OL Ryan Cook
OL Duece Lutui
QB Charlie Whitehurst
QB Reggie McNeal
QB Omar Jacobs
RB Leon Washington
RB Andre Hall
S Bernard Pollard
S Roman Harper
S Dwayne Slay
TE Joe Klopfenstein
TE Tim Day
WR Mike Hass
WR Jonathon Orr
WR Hank Baskett
WR Demetrius Williams
WR Brandon Marshall
First off, until you put everyone together on a board you'd be really surprised what kinds of players sneak into the first round when you need to fit 32 players in there. Same with the second round.
That said, here's my top 10 board for pick #16.
1. DT Haloti Ngata: One of only two players in my "early first" section that I think could possibly fall, in this case due to Ngata playing at an unfavorable weight most of the year. He's a "planet theory" guy. If he stays this weight he's a boulder of a NT that requires two men to move, which opens up our crazy-@ss stunting DL to make plays against the runner behind the line of scrimmage. If he loses weight he adds versatility and possibly pass rush. He's got so much athleticism and versatility that you notice sometimes he plays off and lets linemen out to him so that he can basically play like a linebacker on the defensive line. Some of his woes are probably incurable (I doubt he'll ever be a pass rusher), some coachable (being more aggressive, hustling), others due to weight (hustling, not wearing down during games), and some just the style the coaches at Oregon wanted him to play (playing off instead of engaging).
2. DT Gabe Watson: This is another "planet theory" pick. Scouts know him well, he was a five star elite prospect out of prep and he's ridiculously athletic for 340 pounds. Going up against a North OL that featured the likes of Charles Spencer and Nick Mangold (both solid 2nd rounders), Gabe Watson was so disruptive that the North coaches actually had to remove him from drills so that the OL could get some constructive work done. That right there is about as high a compliment as I've ever seen a coaching staff give a player. In 2003 Kevin Williams went from third rounder to first rounder with the kind of senior bowl that Gabe had. He'd be an awesome NT for us, our own Vince Wilfork, maybe better.
3. OT Winston Justice: Hudson Houck did wonders with the pass protection on this OL but did anyone notice that he couldn't gain much traction in the run blocking? On 3rd and short Linehan called a ton of shotgun plays and not always was it Linehan's fault. The line couldn't block their way out of a paper bag in short yardage situations. Getting a RT like Justice will help Houck gain some traction in this area. Justice was coached by Tim Davis, so I expect he knows how special he is. He may even play LT, but he's plenty valuable as a RT.
4. DE/OLB Manny Lawson: Popular opinion says we have enough DEs. But look at the age factor. JT will be 32, Carter 33, Holliday 31, and even Bowens 29. All have been pros at least 7 years (up to 11 years for Carter). Lawson is a Taylor clone...ridiculously athletic (the vertical machine doesn't even go high enough to measure his vertical). At the Senior Bowl he showed off how good he was at disengaging blockers to make plays in the ground game not just as a speed rusher around the edge (sound familiar?). Remember how Saban said if Taylor played in Saban's system as a DE/OLB his whole career he'd be a hall of famer? Lawson would be Saban's do-over. In the short term he takes over for Bowens, who was significant enough in the rotation to gather 6 sacks this year. In the long term, he replaces JT. Pressure is the life blood of this defense. You can't overload this D with enough rushers. It's just not possible. Right now I have Lawson going #13 to the Browns.
5. QB Vince Young: Mularkey's history with Kordell Stewart is key here because that means he has experience working with this kind of QB and having success (3000+ yards passing for Kordella). Young has 10 times the heart of Kordell, is bigger, might be faster, is more accurate, and has more upside. That alone makes him intriguing here, since the elite talents of this draft are all likely to be gone by #16. I think the compatibility issues combined with his making a mistake with the throwing but not running thing at the Combine will have him fall a bit, and I just don't see as many compatibility issues for Miami now that Mularkey's here. Will he be a superstar QB? I still have my doubts. But he would be a good system QB here with a lot of heart and talent...with a shot at being a star. You can't get a better QB than this at #16 because they'll be gone (Leinart, Cutler). Brodie Croyle is not a better QB prospect than Young. Vince could contribute immediately as a rookie and second year man as an option WR, while he learns to be a good NFL QB.
6. CB/S Jimmy Williams: WRs are getting bigger and bigger every year (just look at this class, its full of size/speed stories). How long will teams like the Patriots get away with using mighty midgets to fight off the huge WRs in the league? Williams is far too talented to just take off the board. He's got tremendous potential at two positions of need for the phins, especially with teachers like Nick Saban and Mel Phillips on board to help him out. You can't sculpt a masterpiece without a huge chunk of marble and that's what Williams is.
7. LB Bobby Carpenter: This is MY prediction, alright, so don't start telling me stupid things like "Carpenter is projected to be a late first or even second rounder, we could get him by trading down" or something because you're not telling me something I don't already know. This is MY projection, I don't want to hear what Kiper has to say or what Rob Rang has to say or what insert-draftnik-here has to say. I wouldn't be doing this if I did not feel my own research and opinions were valid even if they disagree with those guys' stuff. My real job is to find stocks that have tremendous unrecognized value through growth prospects, safe characteristics, stability, etc and these are the things I see in Carpenter right now. His size is killer at a full 6'3" 255 lbs. His speed is killer at a supposed 4.58 relative to Greenway's 4.55 (according to NFL Draft Countdown). He doesn't have Greenway's polish or instincts, or cover skills, but he is a better blitzer, is better going up against blockers, and is the perfect guy for Saban to put in at SSLB to attack attack attack. He can slam his body into the mix and block lanes, rush the passer, and his speed is enough to keep up in coverage. He gets overshadowed by Hawk but when I saw the two play together it was Carpenter that drew my Saban-eye, not Hawk. I sense weakness in Demeco Ryans' story as a linebacker, stemming from his size issues. He's no longer viewed as a top 10 talent and that opens the door for the size/speed/attack combo (all things NFL scouts adore) of Carpenter to possibly rise above Demeco. By draft day I see him rising unless his numbers disappoint because of the injury.
8. CB Antonio Cromartie: Here's another fantastic size/athleticism combo. Not to mention he's so good with the ball. If he weren't such an unknown he'd be a top 10 selection. I believe he'll put many fears to rest with his workouts and when scouts look at the tape they'll see a raw corner who has the best pure corner ability in this entire draft. His hips are extremely quick and his size is amazing. Take him and you've got a stalwart on the outside for years.
9. DT Broderick Bunkley: He was a wrecking ball at the Senior Bowl before being concussed. All he did was add 15 pounds of bulk without losing speed or playmaking ability, and Saban noticed. They met a long time with Brod, and Saban thinks he can play end or tackle in our system (thanks to Boomer for the inside source). Bunkley was always a great playmaker at FSU and it pains me to put him even this far down my board...but I think we have some much more intriguing stories going on in the top 8 of my board.
10. CB Tye Hill/Ashton Youboty: I reserve judgment on which of these two when I learn more about Youboty, who is not getting much print right now. Tye Hill went up against the most impressive WRs in the draft (minus Santonio Holmes) and blanketed them in coverage. He stayed in their hip pocket at all times. Saban made a foot in mouth comment a long time ago about how 5'9" corners can be excellent, on someone else's team. Well, Tye is a solid 5'9" and can cover like crazy. His technique is excellent. What will ease Saban's mind is that Hill's 32.5 inch reach is abnormally long for a corner (longer than Eric Winston). He's got the reach of a 6 foot corner. That will help him get effective jams at the line and help him with his ball skills. Ashton Youboty did not terribly impress me against Notre Dame, but he's still a highly rated corner with good size at a need position. Of my top 10, this is the one I'm not so sure about...the Hill/Youboty thing...but for now this is who I have. I love Demeco Ryans but I think Saban avoids a SSLB with size issues like the plague...and would probably like to refrain from mixing up the LB situation to all hooey by putting Crowder in at SSLB and Demeco at WSLB.
And that is that. No power surges! Yay!
