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I Hate Storms; CK's Updated Big Board

Crowder played like a 2nd/3rd rounder if you consider that guys like Shawne Merrimen, Derrick Johnson, Odell Thurman, and Lofa Tatupu all outplayed Channing and were drafted before Channing. On the other hand, nobody after Channing played better than Channing...unless you think Kirk Morrison played better (possible, he had a ton of tackles).

I know people keep trying to pretend that Channing was first round value that we got in the 3rd because of his knees, but that isn't actually the case. Guys like Thurman, Tatupu, Johnson, and Merriman all played better and are better players. Channing might have gone about 15 spaces later than he should have, due to the knees...but he wasn't worth a first even if healthy.
 
Good stuff.

Two comments...
1. I'm not sure why Hagan is a 2nd rounder and Hass/D.Williams are 3rd/4th rounders. Not saying that Hass/D.Williams won't go 3rd/4th (though I'd personally put D. Williams in the mid 2nd to early 3rd range), but I believe both of those players will have much more productive careers than Hagan will. Until Hagan either learns how to catch with his hands or how to separate from DBs, I think he'll struggle. My history of judging WRs is off and on though. I had Marvin Harrison ranked as a top 5 pick in 1996 when he went behind Terry Glenn and Eddie Kennison. But... I had Quincy Morgan ranked ahead of Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne and Chris Chambers in 2001. Of course, if you look back at the last 10 years the WR position has probably been the most poorly evaluated position, with the 1996 and 2001 drafts as the best (or in this case worst) examples.
2. I personally rank Tapp as a late first rounder. I think he'll ultimately wind up going late first or very early in the 2nd. He doesn't have the prototypical size, but he's a difference maker when he's on the field (just ask D'Brick).
 
No way, no how, does Invincible Young drop, but nice work anyways CK.
 
ckparrothead said:
Crowder played like a 2nd/3rd rounder if you consider that guys like Shawne Merrimen, Derrick Johnson, Odell Thurman, and Lofa Tatupu all outplayed Channing and were drafted before Channing. On the other hand, nobody after Channing played better than Channing...unless you think Kirk Morrison played better (possible, he had a ton of tackles).

I know people keep trying to pretend that Channing was first round value that we got in the 3rd because of his knees, but that isn't actually the case. Guys like Thurman, Tatupu, Johnson, and Merriman all played better and are better players. Channing might have gone about 15 spaces later than he should have, due to the knees...but he wasn't worth a first even if healthy.
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Well I do not think your wrong on the other guys being better, but crowder did drop based on the knees. He was late first-early second on some peoples boards cus my board that i printed out that day had him 24 i believe. Just because the others are/were better doesnt mean that he wasnt a first round talent. I think there were some personal issues with Crowder getting in fights in bars or something as well?
 
ckparrothead said:
Crowder played like a 2nd/3rd rounder if you consider that guys like Shawne Merrimen, Derrick Johnson, Odell Thurman, and Lofa Tatupu all outplayed Channing and were drafted before Channing. On the other hand, nobody after Channing played better than Channing...unless you think Kirk Morrison played better (possible, he had a ton of tackles).

I know people keep trying to pretend that Channing was first round value that we got in the 3rd because of his knees, but that isn't actually the case. Guys like Thurman, Tatupu, Johnson, and Merriman all played better and are better players. Channing might have gone about 15 spaces later than he should have, due to the knees...but he wasn't worth a first even if healthy.
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I wonder, and don't know the answer, if he would have been a top 3 LB the year before last. Last year was a great year for LB's, and I would take those four over him in an instant. I agree with you though, after explaining it, that he was probably a second round talent. I do think it was a great pick in the third round though. Not a steal though...Brady was a steal...Zach was.
 
Nice post CK. It seems to be an off year for OG's. I haven't noticed any rated as 1st rounders. As with you, I am a BPA type of guy and think thats the way we should go. I was hoping we could get the best interior offensive lineman available, but it looks like that won't happen. I would be very happy with one of the stud NT though.

Steve
 
Max Jean-Gilles is probably as good a prospect as Steve Hutchinson was...but guards just don't make the first round very easily no matter how good they are.

I think there's a difference between what the media settles on a guy's value and what his value actually is on the NFL draft boards. When a guy like Antajj Hawthorne drops to Round 6, it isn't accurate to say that he 'was' a 2nd rounder because media draft boards had him there, and he fell because of the drug and attitude problems. He was a 6th round pick, to the NFL. On the flip side, Channing Crowder did not get drafted in the 2nd round. Why? IMO because Odell Thurman and Lofa Tatupu were better prospects than him, even without the knee issues. I think Miami may have even drafted Crowder higher than they may have needed to, because we knew the knees wouldn't be an issue and other teams did not.
 
ckparrothead said:
Max Jean-Gilles is probably as good a prospect as Steve Hutchinson was...but guards just don't make the first round very easily no matter how good they are.
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CK, since 16 is about 7-10 spots to high for MJG in my opinion what do you think about Taitusi Lutui in the 2nd, he has played both LG and RT although to me he looks more of a guard and would be a huge (literally!) addition to our run blocking
 
First off the thing you have to note about Deuce Lutui is that he's got a high reputation because of his purported size...but at the Senior Bowl he measured in a 6'3" and 338 pounds. No doubt that is big, but people were expecting like 6'6" or 6'7" and 360-370 pounds by his reputation.

Deuce is your typical road grater type. He does very well when moving straight forward...he's a people mover. He is not good at pass protection at the moment and doesn't move well laterally. He reminds me of Jamie Nails. What I think about that is he's probably not worth a high round draft choice. Jean-Gilles is more of a special case athlete that could be worth a high choice, but Lutui is not in that class.

Davin Joseph is the guy I expect the coaches to look at if we want to come out with an OL and we miss out on MJG. Joseph is a wide-bodied prospect with long arms and experience playing tackle, and has an excellent all-around game to go with his domineering frame. He could be another exception to the rule because I personally believe both Joseph and Jean-Gilles could play RT if the coaches really wanted to put them there.
 
ckparrothead said:
Max Jean-Gilles is probably as good a prospect as Steve Hutchinson was...but guards just don't make the first round very easily no matter how good they are.

I think there's a difference between what the media settles on a guy's value and what his value actually is on the NFL draft boards. When a guy like Antajj Hawthorne drops to Round 6, it isn't accurate to say that he 'was' a 2nd rounder because media draft boards had him there, and he fell because of the drug and attitude problems. He was a 6th round pick, to the NFL. On the flip side, Channing Crowder did not get drafted in the 2nd round. Why? IMO because Odell Thurman and Lofa Tatupu were better prospects than him, even without the knee issues. I think Miami may have even drafted Crowder higher than they may have needed to, because we knew the knees wouldn't be an issue and other teams did not.
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It can depend on the system they are going into as well, I doubt Saban would have drafted a 5'11" 223 pound linebacker like Tatupu over Crowder for his system and the type of players he is looking for.

Tatupu happen to get lucky and pull a ticket to a Superbowl team, but I wouldn't trade Crowder for him.
 
BlueFin said:
It can depend on the system they are going into as well, I doubt Saban would have drafted a 5'11" 223 pound linebacker like Tatupu over Crowder for his system and the type of players he is looking for.

Tatupu happen to get lucky and pull a ticket to a Superbowl team, but I wouldn't trade Crowder for him.
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I tend to look at it that the Seahawks got lucky they were able to draft Tatupu because they would not be a Superbowl team without him. He changed the mental make up of that defense and is one of the HUGE reasons their defense didn't fold like they usually do every year.
 
Dol-Fan Dupree said:
I tend to look at it that the Seahawks got lucky they were able to draft Tatupu because they would not be a Superbowl team without him. He changed the mental make up of that defense and is one of the HUGE reasons their defense didn't fold like they usually do every year.
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And they lost. I think Seattle was heading for the Superbowl anyway in a very weak NFC this year, with or without Tatupu.

My point was that he is an extremely small linebacker, Saban doesn't look for those types.
 
He's not "extremely small" and Dupree is quite right in that they were lucky they got Tatupu.

Crowder is a middle linebacker. Zach's eventual replacement. Tatupu is a middle linebacker...and is probably bigger than Zach. For a MLB, Saban would not disregard Tatupu. For an OLB, he might. Size is more important to Saban on the outside spots than the inside spot.
 
BlueFin said:
And they lost. I think Seattle was heading for the Superbowl anyway in a very weak NFC this year, with or without Tatupu.

My point was that he is an extremely small linebacker, Saban doesn't look for those types.
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They don't make it passed the first week of the playoffs without Tatupu. They do not have the first week bye without Tatupu. That guy is a HUGE reason why the Seahawks were 13-3.

The first four weeks Seattle looked like the soft team that they were every year. Another 9-7 season along the way. Week five Tatupu finally got up to speed and all of a sudden that defense got some toughness. They don't beat the Redskins or the Panthers with Randell Godfrey as their middle linebacker.

EDIT: I think he is hands down the rookie of the defensive rookie of the year. No rookie meant more to their defense than Tatupu. That includes Ware, Merriman and Thurman.
 
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