I Hate Storms; CK's Updated Big Board

[cnc66]

can you guys copy your text right now...highlight-right click-save ? thats how I USED to protect my stuff it doesn't work. When I went to use spell check I lost everything too.

 

[Dol-Fan Dupree]

If I were writing my posts in Word, I would do that. But I'm writing the posts in the neat little window provided by FinHeaven.

That is the reason why I write my long posts in Word. I lost one of my huge posts once and I cried and cried. It was so sad. The second posts are never as good. Hard to type through the tears.

 

[ckparrothead]

LOL I usually do too. It was one of those posts I didn't expect to be nearly as long and it just turned out that way from freedom of the pen...then it was too late.


Continuing along the lines of the "I Hate Storms" theme...I just SWAM home from work. That's right, SWAM. Worst non-Hurricane flooding I've ever seen around here basically.

 

[phinfan_1]

Nice break down CK

 

[Pocoloco]

The more I look at it the more I don't see Young getting drafted before 16, unless someone trades up.

You gave a number of good reasons for teams to aviod Young early in the first. Although you would have to mold your offense around someone like Young, I think he could still be a very efficient pocket passer if that is what was asked of him after a year or two.

Personally, I always thought some of the mechanics issues might give people more of a scare, but most people on this board disagree because Phillip Rivers had similar issues. Anyway, we'll just have to see what happens in the combine with that.

My gut feeling tells me that Young won't last till 16. A long time ago there was a rumor that Saban was enamored with Young, Quinn and Cutler, so I wouldn't be too surprised to see us try to trade up to nab him if he makes it by Oakland. Better now than never I suppose. Young is better than almost every one of next year's college Qbs with the exception of Quinn.

 

[djfresh47]

CK, out of your 3rd-4th round prospects, which Qb do you like? I know you posted a high opinion of McNeal before, but how do you compare him to Jacobs and Whitehurst. My top 5 Qb's right now looks like 1. Leinart, 2. Young, 3. Cutler, 4. Whitehurst, 5. Croyle, which is probably the norm with most, besides Whitehurst ahead of Croyle. I'm a big Reggie McNeal guy, I was skeptical of his size, but I guess he is a legit 6'2. I put him at 6 and then Jacobs, he's got a ton of atheletic ability, but I think he can be a Qb, unlike say Brad Smith who I project as a wideout and compareable to the Qb who came from Clemson before Whitehurst, his name slips my mind right now. After Texas beat Ohio St, I thought A&M would give Texas the best challenge and the game was close, but i'm of the opinion the difference in the game regardless of how well McGee played was that McNeal was hurt. Coach Fran has not done as well as expected, but if Saban does not take a Qb in the 1st or 2nd rd, I would take McNeal after the top 5 i've listed. He can be a slash player, if a veteran is brought in, but I think he also has the ability to be a very good Qb.

 

[Danny]

You have no idea how extensive a piece I just had written out that got completely wiped out by a lightning bolt.

This is like a video game where I work hard and forget to save for a little bit then unexpectedly die and have to start over. I usually just toss up the controls and forego playing the game for like, a week before I can build the stamina to do it all again.

So, rather than the extensive piece, he's my pick board...with a few notes.

Early First Rounders
DE Mario Williams
DT Haloti Ngata
LB Chad Greenway
LB AJ Hawk
OL D'Brickashaw Ferguson
QB Matt Leinart
QB Vince Young
QB Jay Cutler
RB DeAngelo Williams
RB Reggie Bush
S Michael Huff
TE Vernon Davis

Middle First Rounders
CB Jimmy Williams
DL Broderick Bunkley
DL Gabe Watson
DL Manny Lawson
DL Tamba Hali
LB DeMeco Ryans
OT Winston Justice
RB LenDale White
WR Santonio Holmes

Late First Rounders
CB Antonio Cromartie
CB Ashton Youboty
CB Tye Hill
DL Mathias Kiwanuka
LB Bobby Carpenter
OL Marcus McNeill
OL Max Jean-Gilles
OL Jonathan Scott
RB Laurence Maroney
S Ko Simpson
TE Leonard Pope

Second Rounders
LB Abdul Hodge
TE Anthony Fasano
QB Brodie Croyle
WR Chad Jackson
S Daniel Bullocks
S Darnell Bing
OL Davin Joseph
WR Derek Hagan
LB D'Qwell Jackson
CB Johnathan Joseph
RB Joseph Addai
LB Kai Parham
TE Marcedes Lewis
WR Maurice Stovall
OL Nick Mangold
DT Rodrique Wright
WR Sinorice Moss
LB Thomas Howard

Late Second Rounders
DT Babatunde Oshinowo
RB Brian Calhoun
OL Charles Spencer
DL Darryl Tapp
TE Dominique Byrd
OL Eric Winston
S Greg Blue
S Jason Allen
DL Mark Anderson
DL Orien Harris
S Pat Watkins
DE Ray Edwards
LB Spencer Havner
DL Victor Adeyanju

Third Rounders
CB Anwar Phillips
CB Alan Zemaitis
CB Demario Minter
DE Stanley McClover
DE James Wyche
DL Kamerion Wimbley
DL Kyle Williams
LB Ernie Sims
OL Ryan O'Callaghan
OT Andrew Whitworth
RB Jerome Harrison
WR Travis Wilson

Third/Fourth Rounders
CB Cedric Griffin
CB Kelly Jennings
CB Richard Marshall
DE Eric Henderson
DL Dusty Dvoracek
DL Parys Haralson
DT Claude Wroten
LB Freddie Roach
LB Cameron Vaughn
LB Clint Ingram
LB Gerris Wilkinson
LB Anthony Schlegel
OG Rob Sims
OG Jason Spitz
OL Daryn Colledge
OL Ryan Cook
OL Duece Lutui
QB Charlie Whitehurst
QB Reggie McNeal
QB Omar Jacobs
RB Leon Washington
RB Andre Hall
S Bernard Pollard
S Roman Harper
S Dwayne Slay
TE Joe Klopfenstein
TE Tim Day
WR Mike Hass
WR Jonathon Orr
WR Hank Baskett
WR Demetrius Williams
WR Brandon Marshall

First off, until you put everyone together on a board you'd be really surprised what kinds of players sneak into the first round when you need to fit 32 players in there. Same with the second round.

That said, here's my top 10 board for pick #16.

1. DT Haloti Ngata: One of only two players in my "early first" section that I think could possibly fall, in this case due to Ngata playing at an unfavorable weight most of the year. He's a "planet theory" guy. If he stays this weight he's a boulder of a NT that requires two men to move, which opens up our crazy-@ss stunting DL to make plays against the runner behind the line of scrimmage. If he loses weight he adds versatility and possibly pass rush. He's got so much athleticism and versatility that you notice sometimes he plays off and lets linemen out to him so that he can basically play like a linebacker on the defensive line. Some of his woes are probably incurable (I doubt he'll ever be a pass rusher), some coachable (being more aggressive, hustling), others due to weight (hustling, not wearing down during games), and some just the style the coaches at Oregon wanted him to play (playing off instead of engaging).

2. DT Gabe Watson: This is another "planet theory" pick. Scouts know him well, he was a five star elite prospect out of prep and he's ridiculously athletic for 340 pounds. Going up against a North OL that featured the likes of Charles Spencer and Nick Mangold (both solid 2nd rounders), Gabe Watson was so disruptive that the North coaches actually had to remove him from drills so that the OL could get some constructive work done. That right there is about as high a compliment as I've ever seen a coaching staff give a player. In 2003 Kevin Williams went from third rounder to first rounder with the kind of senior bowl that Gabe had. He'd be an awesome NT for us, our own Vince Wilfork, maybe better.

3. OT Winston Justice: Hudson Houck did wonders with the pass protection on this OL but did anyone notice that he couldn't gain much traction in the run blocking? On 3rd and short Linehan called a ton of shotgun plays and not always was it Linehan's fault. The line couldn't block their way out of a paper bag in short yardage situations. Getting a RT like Justice will help Houck gain some traction in this area. Justice was coached by Tim Davis, so I expect he knows how special he is. He may even play LT, but he's plenty valuable as a RT.

4. DE/OLB Manny Lawson: Popular opinion says we have enough DEs. But look at the age factor. JT will be 32, Carter 33, Holliday 31, and even Bowens 29. All have been pros at least 7 years (up to 11 years for Carter). Lawson is a Taylor clone...ridiculously athletic (the vertical machine doesn't even go high enough to measure his vertical). At the Senior Bowl he showed off how good he was at disengaging blockers to make plays in the ground game not just as a speed rusher around the edge (sound familiar?). Remember how Saban said if Taylor played in Saban's system as a DE/OLB his whole career he'd be a hall of famer? Lawson would be Saban's do-over. In the short term he takes over for Bowens, who was significant enough in the rotation to gather 6 sacks this year. In the long term, he replaces JT. Pressure is the life blood of this defense. You can't overload this D with enough rushers. It's just not possible. Right now I have Lawson going #13 to the Browns.

5. QB Vince Young: Mularkey's history with Kordell Stewart is key here because that means he has experience working with this kind of QB and having success (3000+ yards passing for Kordella). Young has 10 times the heart of Kordell, is bigger, might be faster, is more accurate, and has more upside. That alone makes him intriguing here, since the elite talents of this draft are all likely to be gone by #16. I think the compatibility issues combined with his making a mistake with the throwing but not running thing at the Combine will have him fall a bit, and I just don't see as many compatibility issues for Miami now that Mularkey's here. Will he be a superstar QB? I still have my doubts. But he would be a good system QB here with a lot of heart and talent...with a shot at being a star. You can't get a better QB than this at #16 because they'll be gone (Leinart, Cutler). Brodie Croyle is not a better QB prospect than Young. Vince could contribute immediately as a rookie and second year man as an option WR, while he learns to be a good NFL QB.

6. CB/S Jimmy Williams: WRs are getting bigger and bigger every year (just look at this class, its full of size/speed stories). How long will teams like the Patriots get away with using mighty midgets to fight off the huge WRs in the league? Williams is far too talented to just take off the board. He's got tremendous potential at two positions of need for the phins, especially with teachers like Nick Saban and Mel Phillips on board to help him out. You can't sculpt a masterpiece without a huge chunk of marble and that's what Williams is.

7. LB Bobby Carpenter: This is MY prediction, alright, so don't start telling me stupid things like "Carpenter is projected to be a late first or even second rounder, we could get him by trading down" or something because you're not telling me something I don't already know. This is MY projection, I don't want to hear what Kiper has to say or what Rob Rang has to say or what insert-draftnik-here has to say. I wouldn't be doing this if I did not feel my own research and opinions were valid even if they disagree with those guys' stuff. My real job is to find stocks that have tremendous unrecognized value through growth prospects, safe characteristics, stability, etc and these are the things I see in Carpenter right now. His size is killer at a full 6'3" 255 lbs. His speed is killer at a supposed 4.58 relative to Greenway's 4.55 (according to NFL Draft Countdown). He doesn't have Greenway's polish or instincts, or cover skills, but he is a better blitzer, is better going up against blockers, and is the perfect guy for Saban to put in at SSLB to attack attack attack. He can slam his body into the mix and block lanes, rush the passer, and his speed is enough to keep up in coverage. He gets overshadowed by Hawk but when I saw the two play together it was Carpenter that drew my Saban-eye, not Hawk. I sense weakness in Demeco Ryans' story as a linebacker, stemming from his size issues. He's no longer viewed as a top 10 talent and that opens the door for the size/speed/attack combo (all things NFL scouts adore) of Carpenter to possibly rise above Demeco. By draft day I see him rising unless his numbers disappoint because of the injury.

8. CB Antonio Cromartie: Here's another fantastic size/athleticism combo. Not to mention he's so good with the ball. If he weren't such an unknown he'd be a top 10 selection. I believe he'll put many fears to rest with his workouts and when scouts look at the tape they'll see a raw corner who has the best pure corner ability in this entire draft. His hips are extremely quick and his size is amazing. Take him and you've got a stalwart on the outside for years.

9. DT Broderick Bunkley: He was a wrecking ball at the Senior Bowl before being concussed. All he did was add 15 pounds of bulk without losing speed or playmaking ability, and Saban noticed. They met a long time with Brod, and Saban thinks he can play end or tackle in our system (thanks to Boomer for the inside source). Bunkley was always a great playmaker at FSU and it pains me to put him even this far down my board...but I think we have some much more intriguing stories going on in the top 8 of my board.

10. CB Tye Hill/Ashton Youboty: I reserve judgment on which of these two when I learn more about Youboty, who is not getting much print right now. Tye Hill went up against the most impressive WRs in the draft (minus Santonio Holmes) and blanketed them in coverage. He stayed in their hip pocket at all times. Saban made a foot in mouth comment a long time ago about how 5'9" corners can be excellent, on someone else's team. Well, Tye is a solid 5'9" and can cover like crazy. His technique is excellent. What will ease Saban's mind is that Hill's 32.5 inch reach is abnormally long for a corner (longer than Eric Winston). He's got the reach of a 6 foot corner. That will help him get effective jams at the line and help him with his ball skills. Ashton Youboty did not terribly impress me against Notre Dame, but he's still a highly rated corner with good size at a need position. Of my top 10, this is the one I'm not so sure about...the Hill/Youboty thing...but for now this is who I have. I love Demeco Ryans but I think Saban avoids a SSLB with size issues like the plague...and would probably like to refrain from mixing up the LB situation to all hooey by putting Crowder in at SSLB and Demeco at WSLB.


And that is that. No power surges! Yay!

As always great job and thanks for sharing it with us......do you really think Whitehurst won't be taken till day 2 tho? I think he'll go in the 3rd but I can be wrong....about Carpenter,I'd love to have him...in fact all 3 of their LB's for that matter.If Young drops to us we'd be crazy to pass on a talent like that but I think he'll be gone....Ngata could drop and what a d-line with Roth,Manny,Carter Vickerson,Holliday,JT and Ngata....and Lawson would be great too...nice write up CK.

Ozzy rules!!

 

[CrunchTime]

It seems that the OTs have been dropping on your and Mel Kipers board.Thats good.I hope they continue to do so.

Getting a shot at Winston Justice the second best OT in the draft would be hard to pass up at the 16th spot.

Statistically speaking if you name the top ten O tackles in the league (Jones, Roaf, Ogden, Pace, Glenn, etc.) You will find that 9-10 of those players were taken in the first round. IMO Elite tackles especially LTs are born, they are not made & they are harder to find than QB's.

In addition they are highly marketable.You can never have too many of the top ones on your roster.Thats why so many of them are franchised and unavailable for trade.

In my opinion we should draft an OL like Justice or even McNeil in the first round and look for a QB in the second or third round. Guys like Trent Green, Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, & Brett Favre who were taken after the first round have succeded with the right team, the right system & the right environment.

ML would be the only QB I would consider drafting in this years first round
__________________

 

[BlueFin]

The storms are killer. I can't even leave the office.

It's not that I believe DT is a priority, it is just that is where I see the value right now. I mostly subscribe to the whole best player available theory of drafting. I guess you could call my variation the limited best player available theory. The truth of the matter is that guys like Haloti Ngata, Broderick Bunkley and Gabe Watson are better players than a lot of the other guys IMO.

Keep in mind that my list assumes that the following 10 players will be OFF the board:

1. Reggie Bush
2. Matt Leinart
3. Jay Cutler
4. D'Brickashaw Ferguson
5. Mario Williams
6. AJ Hawk
7. DeAngelo Williams
8. Vernon Davis
9. Michael Huff
10. Chad Greenway

That's not a mock draft (for instance I don't expect the Bills to grab Davis), but that IS the order in which I expect those 10 players to probably end up going.

So my top 10 list completely excludes the above-10 players because I firmly believe we will not have a chance at drafting them.

No I understand.

I do feel that it all starts on the line of scrimmage though, and if you have a weakness you need to strengthen it, the three DT's you named are excellent and when you get a chance to get one of them its hard to pass on,

 

[BlueFin]

It seems that the OTs have been dropping on your and Mel Kipers board.Thats good.I hope they continue to do so.

Getting a shot at Winston Justice the second best OT in the draft would be hard to pass up at the 16th spot.

Statistically speaking if you name the top ten O tackles in the league (Jones, Roaf, Ogden, Pace, Glenn, etc.) You will find that 9-10 of those players were taken in the first round. IMO Elite tackles especially LTs are born, they are not made & they are harder to find than QB's.

In addition they are highly marketable.You can never have too many of the top ones on your roster.Thats why so many of them are franchised and unavailable for trade.

In my opinion we should draft an OL like Justice or even McNeil in the first round and look for a QB in the second or third round. Guys like Trent Green, Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, & Brett Favre who were taken after the first round have succeded with the right team, the right system & the right environment.

ML would be the only QB I would consider drafting in this years first round
__________________

Wow Crunch, I Usually find myself more or less on he same page with you, but not on this.

Justice is really right tackle and has struggled some with edge pass rushers, while he has potential I would not pass on one of the top three QB's to draft him.

 

[ckparrothead]

You'll have to understand that for me, it isn't a matter of Jon Scott and Eric Winston falling, as failing to rise. Scott looks far too inconsistent and I am VERY uncomfortable with Winston's short arms.

The guy I guess you could say is "falling" would be McNeil, based on issues with his back. He could just as easily pop back up the board if the back issues get more light or get cleared up.

And btw Danny, I feel like Whitehurst is being hurt significantly by the soreness in his shoulder from a December/January surgery. He doesn't look the same throwing the ball and usually has MUCH more zip on his passes. He might not overcome it in time to be drafted on the first day.

 

[CD13]

You'll have to understand that for me, it isn't a matter of Jon Scott and Eric Winston falling, as failing to rise. Scott looks far too inconsistent and I am VERY uncomfortable with Winston's short arms.

The guy I guess you could say is "falling" would be McNeil, based on issues with his back. He could just as easily pop back up the board if the back issues get more light or get cleared up.

And btw Danny, I feel like Whitehurst is being hurt significantly by the soreness in his shoulder from a December/January surgery. He doesn't look the same throwing the ball and usually has MUCH more zip on his passes. He might not overcome it in time to be drafted on the first day.

So Whitehurst could end up being a steal if he falls because of injury. He it would be nice to get him in the 4th round or so. Are you going to do a mock draft at some point ?

 

[ckparrothead]

So Whitehurst could end up being a steal if he falls because of injury. He it would be nice to get him in the 4th round or so. Are you going to do a mock draft at some point ?

Yes, and no. If you know it and I know it you can damn well be sure all the GMs know it. They all view a heck of a lot more tape than I do and can view his top gun arm in action all they want. His value is going to be hurt by the surgery, but it will probably be the "correct" amount to adjust his value based on the surgery itself. There's no reason to assume he'll be a steal.

I know people consider Channing Crowder to be a steal due to his knee issues but the truth of the matter is that each of the linebackers drafted above him in the draft with the exception of Barrett Ruud, Kevin Burnett, and Matt McCoy, all had better rookie years than Channing...so the reality is that Channing played like a 2nd/3rd round pick LB, and that's exactly what he was.

 

[Mile High Fin]

Yes, and no. If you know it and I know it you can damn well be sure all the GMs know it. They all view a heck of a lot more tape than I do and can view his top gun arm in action all they want. His value is going to be hurt by the surgery, but it will probably be the "correct" amount to adjust his value based on the surgery itself. There's no reason to assume he'll be a steal.

I know people consider Channing Crowder to be a steal due to his knee issues but the truth of the matter is that each of the linebackers drafted above him in the draft with the exception of Barrett Ruud, Kevin Burnett, and Matt McCoy, all had better rookie years than Channing...so the reality is that Channing played like a 2nd/3rd round pick LB, and that's exactly what he was.

I agree with you in general CK.

However, I'd state the thing about Crowder like this:
-He played like a rookie 1st rounder (maybe "late" 1st rounder :wink: ), but because of his knee history, he was discounted (properly) to the 3rd round. Still doesn't mean he was a steal, but he could be (depending on if he stays healthy long-term)
Just because he had no problems with his knees in 2005 doesn't mean we're in the clear yet...

So the LBs taken ahead of him (with the exceptions you mention) are worth 1st/2nd round picks because they: (1) play well; and (2) have no (or less) injury concerns. Crowder has high talent so he: (1) plays well - like a top pick; but (2) still has injury concerns (albeit reduced somewhat now after a year of no knee problems).

Time will tell if he ends up being a "steal" or not. As of now, he's a promising pick, but not yet "steal" status....but I like his prospects. :evil:

In summation, I feel he played like a 1st rounder (or for sake of argument, maybe a late-1st/early 2nd rounder)--not a 2nd/3rd rounder as you stated, but still has injury concerns; thus, the 3rd round was appropriate for him (as you stated).

A typical mid-3rd round LB often plays Special Teams primarily, or maybe plays situationally, or if he becomes a STARTER, then maybe not until after a year or two of grooming/learning...

Crowder became virtually an instant starter (on a strong Defense), and played well, in lots of formations....and was only improving as the year wore on. We still haven't seen his full potential IMO....:eek:

 

[Shouright]

I think if Young makes it past 5-8, someone will trade up and get him.

And how about LaRon Landry?

If we can't get a QB, I think the SSLB is the pick. Saban's not going to replace Junior Seau with Derrick Pope. Now if we get J. Peterson that will change.