Is Having (or Taking) More Time to Throw the Ball Overrated? | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Is Having (or Taking) More Time to Throw the Ball Overrated?

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Shouright

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One would think that if a QB had more time, or took more time, to throw the ball, he would perform better.

This doesn't seem to be the case, however.

Here are the data pertaining to this for this season (from PFF):

Name
Drop backs
To Throw
To Attempt
To Sack
To Scramble
Drop backs
(< 2.6 sec.)
%
Att.
Comp.
Comp %
Sk
NFL QB Rating
Drop backs (2.6 sec. or more)
%
Att.
Comp.
Comp %
Sk
NFL QB Rating
Michael Vick
160
3.4
3.06
4.58
5.32
52
32.5
52
36
69.2
0
106.5
108
67.5
80
35
43.8
12
80.3
Terrelle Pryor
174
3.36
2.94
4.59
5.25
66
37.9
66
49
74.2
0
92
108
62.1
71
40
56.3
19
79.4
Russell Wilson
235
3.21
2.82
4.05
5.12
98
41.7
97
66
68
1
108.9
137
58.3
89
49
55.1
19
85.5
Geno Smith
262
3.2
2.9
4.5
5.49
86
32.8
85
52
61.2
1
72.9
176
67.2
137
78
56.9
24
75.7
Colin Kaepernick
216
3.13
2.77
4.37
5.17
88
40.7
88
57
64.8
0
101.5
128
59.3
94
46
48.9
13
69.5
Brandon Weeden
221
3.06
2.84
4.37
5.6
77
34.8
77
46
59.7
0
75
144
65.2
117
57
48.7
21
61.4
Cam Newton
198
2.97
2.66
4.64
5.12
84
42.4
83
54
65.1
1
96.4
114
57.6
87
54
62.1
17
93.7
Andrew Luck
260
2.91
2.65
4.13
4.84
120
46.2
119
80
67.2
1
104.1
140
53.8
105
56
53.3
14
76.7
Alex D. Smith
293
2.9
2.58
3.85
5
145
49.5
143
94
65.7
2
89.6
148
50.5
104
51
49
15
67.2
E.J. Manuel
174
2.89
2.57
4.36
5.28
85
48.9
85
52
61.2
0
84.5
89
51.1
64
33
51.6
12
74
Robert Griffin III
263
2.85
2.65
4.38
5.09
140
53.2
139
93
66.9
0
94.3
123
46.8
99
50
50.5
11
68.2
Joe Flacco
293
2.79
2.65
4.2
5.1
153
52.2
150
95
63.3
3
88.4
140
47.8
119
65
54.6
17
66.9
Eli Manning
290
2.78
2.68
3.89
4.1
137
47.2
137
78
56.9
0
60.8
153
52.8
131
68
51.9
17
72.4
Jake Locker
174
2.78
2.5
4.15
5.04
91
52.3
91
63
69.2
0
113.5
83
47.7
60
31
51.7
12
73.8
Matt Schaub
249
2.74
2.68
3.61
4.4
128
51.4
128
85
66.4
0
64.7
121
48.6
105
65
61.9
15
96.1
Jay Cutler
243
2.73
2.6
3.7
4.57
118
48.6
118
85
72
0
100.7
125
51.4
105
61
58.1
10
83.2
Drew Brees
256
2.73
2.62
3.75
4.58
122
47.7
122
91
74.6
0
113.1
134
52.3
114
66
57.9
14
92.3
Ben Roethlisberger
237
2.71
2.49
4.33
5.32
123
51.9
121
88
72.7
2
94.2
114
48.1
90
55
61.1
19
90
Tony Romo
284
2.69
2.58
4.03
4.58
150
52.8
149
105
70.5
1
94
134
47.2
115
76
66.1
15
112.4
Sam Bradford
284
2.67
2.58
3.47
4.51
132
46.5
129
85
65.9
3
87.5
152
53.5
133
74
55.6
12
94.4
Aaron Rodgers
245
2.64
2.44
3.73
5.15
140
57.1
140
102
72.9
0
109.3
105
42.9
79
41
51.9
15
97.2
Tom Brady
305
2.57
2.49
3.56
4.63
174
57
170
111
65.3
4
83.9
131
43
113
47
41.6
16
63.7
Matt Ryan
254
2.53
2.48
3.67
3.7
153
60.2
152
112
73.7
1
104.5
101
39.8
92
59
64.1
8
108.3
Carson Palmer
289
2.52
2.41
3.6
5.4
171
59.2
170
110
64.7
1
71.3
118
40.8
96
51
53.1
19
66.2
Chad Henne
190
2.52
2.37
3.91
4.47
114
60
114
74
64.9
0
87.2
76
40
58
29
50
14
46.1
Andy Dalton
277
2.51
2.29
4.08
4.8
169
61
169
122
72.2
0
92.6
108
39
80
42
52.5
15
96.5
Ryan Tannehill
247
2.49
2.34
3.51
4.3
158
64
156
103
66
2
85.5
89
36
61
30
49.2
24
79.5
Philip Rivers
264
2.47
2.37
3.96
4.88
160
60.6
159
119
74.8
0
104.8
104
39.4
89
65
73
11
123.4
Peyton Manning
299
2.37
2.34
3.23
184
61.5
184
138
75
0
129.4
115
38.5
106
69
65.1
9
111.4
Matthew Stafford
303
2.33
2.25
3.53
4.98
207
68.3
205
129
62.9
2
100.3
96
31.7
85
49
57.6
7
83.4
MEAN
247.97
2.78
2.59
3.99
4.89
127.50
50.67
126.60
85.80
67.57
0.83
93.71
120.47
49.33
95.93
53.07
55.11
14.87
82.96
STANDARD DEVIATION
42.69
0.28
0.20
0.39
0.44
37.79
9.36
37.31
26.76
4.88
1.12
15.29
23.11
9.36
21.50
14.00
6.82
4.25
17.30
CORR QBR > 2.5
-0.30
-0.24
-0.25
-0.29
CORR QBR < 2.5
-0.19
-0.22
-0.17
-0.16

So what we see here is that the average QB rating in the NFL this year on throws made in 2.5 seconds or less is 93.71, whereas the average QB rating on throws made in 2.6 seconds or more is just a shade under 83, more than 10 points less.

What we also see is that each of the four "time" variables (to throw, to attempt, to sack, and to scramble) are negatively correlated with QB rating on throws made in 2.6 seconds or more, meaning that the more time QBs have in that regard, the lower their QB ratings are. These correlations are in the 20s and 30s, so they're not very strong, but they're negative nonetheless, which illustrates the inverse, and possibly counterintuitive, relationship.
 
Not everything is black and white. The numbers change based on play calls, coverages, etc. PFF does offer some nice statistical data but a lot of what they put out is worthless babble. After all it is PFF that ranks the entire Dolphins defense 4th based on individual play.
 
MadDog 88 said:
Not everything is black and white. The numbers change based on play calls, coverages, etc. PFF does offer some nice statistical data but a lot of what they put out is worthless babble. After all it is PFF that ranks the entire Dolphins defense 4th based on individual play.
Click to expand...
Those are subjective grades, however, not objective data like those above.

What we have above is a fairly dramatic difference in QB rating on the basis of whether QBs take (or are given) a certain amount of time, which one would assume is reliable data as long as the people collecting it are using their stopwatches appropriately. There is no human error possible other than that.
 
Danger Spam crossing ahead :spamattac
 
Last edited by a moderator:
shouright said:
So what we see here is that the average QB rating in the NFL this year on throws made in 2.5 seconds or less is 93.71, whereas the average QB rating on throws made in 2.6 seconds or more is just a shade under 83, more than 10 points less.
Click to expand...

so what we see here is that the avg qb rating is higher when the primary is open vs when he is not
 
dnespins said:
so what we see here is that the avg qb rating is higher when the primary is open vs when he is not
Click to expand...
Entirely possible as an explanation, and a good one I think. :up:

Also, I took the difference between the two QB ratings (for throws made before 2.6 seconds, and for throws made in 2.6 seconds or more) and correlated it with the percentage of dropbacks in which these QBs have been pressured. That correlation is nil (-0.03), which lends credence to your explanation.
 
One would assume a pass that comes out quick is going to an open primary receiver more often than not, which is a higher percentage pass. As they have more time and go through more reads the chances of them finding someone when their primary read isn't open probably drops a bit. On top of that you're going to need more time for deeper routes to open up, so don't know what these numbers show us at all.
 
grushcow said:
One would assume a pass that comes out quick is going to an open primary receiver more often than not, which is a higher percentage pass. As they have more time and go through more reads the chances of them finding someone when their primary read isn't open probably drops a bit. On top of that you're going to need more time for deeper routes to open up, so don't know what these numbers show us at all.
Click to expand...
I think what they might show us is sort of an extension of what you said, that it's more important to call plays that can get a primary receiver open quickly, and then execute those plays well (both the QB and the receiver), than it is to hold blocks longer, move in the pocket, and/or move through one's progression better.

Of course if that primary receiver isn't open for whatever reason, then obviously those other variables become more important, but the difference in QB rating here says that you get a whole lot more bang for your buck by getting that primary receiver open quickly and getting the ball to him effectively than by doing those other things well.

What you could take from this in watching games is that as soon as the QB comes off his first target during a play, you can put money on the idea that the play probably isn't going to be as successful as it would be if he were able to hit that target quickly. There are exceptions, of course, but the data show that over the long haul, the quick-hitters are more productive.
 
This really is getting old and the last comment I have is it's ridiculous to think having more time to throw may be over rated. There are times that a QB has all day in the pocket and is simply waiting for something to open up down field. You can spin this in any direction your agenda dictates but for me and most folks with common sense, a QB trying to make a play down field is trying to put his team in a better position for success. The notion that having to much time may be over rated is ludicrous at best. I'm out.
 
MadDog 88 said:
There are times that a QB has all day in the pocket and is simply waiting for something to open up down field.
Click to expand...
Is it not possible that those plays are typically less productive than the quick-hitters?

The notion that having to much time may be over rated is ludicrous at best.
Click to expand...
It's possible that having more time may not be bad in itself (although plays such as those may usually end more poorly), but that taking more time is bad, which is why I'm questioning both things here, "taking" time, and "having" time.

That said, however, you're of course free to participate in the discussion as much as you'd like. :)
 
Cant take time if you dont have it. Ask anyone who has ever played defense at any level how hard it is to cover a receiver for more than 3 seconds. Im sure those.numbers include scrambles, broken plays, throw aways etc... let any nfl caliber qb stand tall in a pocket for more than three seconds and your defense is getting torn up in chunks
 
John Biello said:
Cant take time if you dont have it. Ask anyone who has ever played defense at any level how hard it is to cover a receiver for more than 3 seconds. Im sure those.numbers include scrambles, broken plays, throw aways etc... let any nfl caliber qb stand tall in a pocket for more than three seconds and your defense is getting torn up in chunks
Click to expand...
Well then why isn't that reflected in QB rating?
 
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