Luck, Griffin, & Wilson vs. Tannehill & Weeden: An Objective Analysis (Part I)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Shouright, Jan 3, 2013.

  1. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    Couple ways I'm going to come at this here.

    First, I'm going to take a look at the passing offense these rookies were asked to run this year, in comparison to the passing offenses run by the league's best quarterbacks.

    Second -- and this will be relegated to "Part II" of this thread (this is Part I) -- I'm going to look at how the "successful" rookie quarterbacks -- Luck, Griffin, and Wilson -- performed, in comparison to the "unsuccessful" ones -- Tannehill and Weeden. I put "successful" and "unsuccessful" in quotes because you may disagree with those appraisals, and so those labels are being used for the sake of comparison only.

    So let's take a look first at the kinds of passing offenses these rookies were asked to run this year, in comparison to the passing offenses run by the league's best QBs. Since we're comparing five rookie QBs to each other, I've decided to use the five best veteran QBs to provide a frame of reference. Those QBs are, in no particular order:

    1) Aaron Rodgers
    2) Tom Brady
    3) Drew Brees
    4) Matt Ryan
    5) Peyton Manning

    I think the first way we can look at the kinds of passing offenses the rookie QBs were asked to run is by asking ourselves, how much passing were they in fact asked to do? Of course an offense can lean predominantly on the run game, lean predominantly on the passing game, or try to achieve a balance between the two.

    Here are the data in that regard, in terms of number of overall pass attempts per game this year:

    [TABLE="class: cms_table_grid"]


    QB


    Pass Attempts Per Game


    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Tannehill
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    32.27
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Luck
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    39.19
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Wilson
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    24.56
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    RGIII
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    26.2
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Weeden
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    34.47
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Brady
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    39.81
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Manning
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    36.44
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Ryan
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    38.44
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Rodgers
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    34.5
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    Brees
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]
    41.88
    [/TD]
    [/TABLE]

    I've run some statistical tests with these data (and the others to follow below), and what they show is that Andrew Luck was asked to pass significantly more than the average of the rookie QBs in the sample, while passing non-significantly less than the average of the veteran QBs in the sample. In other words, in terms of the overall amount of passing Andrew Luck was asked to do this year, he functioned not unlike the league's best veteran QBs, and very much unlike his fellow rookie QBs.

    By contrast, every other rookie QB, even Brandon Weeden, with nearly 34.5 attempts per game, was asked to pass significantly less overall than the average of the veteran QBs in the sample. So by that, Andrew Luck is distinguished from his fellow rookie QBs even further.

    Also by contrast, RGIII and Russell Wilson were asked not only to pass the ball significantly less than the veteran QBs in the sample, but they were also asked to pass nearly (statistically) significantly less than their fellow rookies. Ryan Tannehill, although asked to pass the ball significantly less than the veteran QBs in the sample, was not asked to pass it less than his fellow rookies. Nor was Brandon Weeden.

    [HR][/HR]
    Now, not only can teams have their quarterbacks throw the ball more, as did Andrew Luck's, but of course they can vary the types of passes they ask their quarterbacks to throw. Some NFL offenses feature a short passing game, while of course others go downfield more often.

    I thought it would be interesting to take a look at this aspect of these rookie QBs' performance this year, so I dug up the numbers of passing attempts each of them had as a function of how far they threw the ball in the air, figuring that would be a sufficient indicator of the kinds of passing offenses they were asked to run.

    Here are the data -- once again, these are yards the ball was thrown in the air:

    [TABLE="class: cms_table_grid"]

    [TD="align: center"][SUB]QB[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"][SUB]Attempts Per Game of 20 or Fewer Yards[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"][SUB]Attempts Per Game of 21 or More Yards[/SUB]
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]Tannehill[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]25.47[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]2.8[/SUB]
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]Luck[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]30[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]5.19[/SUB]
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]Wilson[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]19.88[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]3.5[/SUB]
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]RGIII[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]22.73[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]2.2[/SUB]
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]Weeden[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]30.93[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]3.47[/SUB]
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]Brady[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]30.94[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]3.94[/SUB]
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]Manning[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]30.81[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]3.75[/SUB]
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]Ryan[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]32.56[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]3.13[/SUB]
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]Rodgers[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]26.63[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]3[/SUB]
    [/TD]

    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]Brees[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]34.75[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"][SUB]4.44[/SUB]
    [/TD]
    [/TABLE]

    Now this needs no statstical analysis. You can eyeball it. Obviously Andrew Luck was asked to pass downfield at far greater a frequency than his fellow rookie QBs. In fact, he was even asked to pass downfield at a significantly greater frequency than the average of the five veteran QBs in the sample!

    And who was asked to throw the ball downfield the least? That's right: the rookie QB with the highest QB rating of them all, and the second highest QB rating in the league at 102.4, none other than RGIII (a preview of "Part II" of this thread).

    Ryan Tannehill was similarly asked to run a conservative offense in terms of downfield passing, in comparison to the veteran QBs in the sample. His number of attempts of 21 or more yards per game was significantly less than that of the average of the veteran QBs in the sample. On the other hand, neither Russell Wilson nor Brandon Weeden passed downfield significantly less frequently than the veteran QBs in the sample.

    [HR][/HR]
    So what we see here overall is that, of the rookie QBs this year, Andrew Luck was asked by far to run both the most emphasized passing game, as well as the most aggressive (i.e., downfield) passing game. RGIII on the other hand ran what you could call perhaps a "dumbed down" passing offense, in that his number of attempts overall, as well as his number of attempts downfield, were much fewer. Ditto for Russell Wilson with regard to passing attempts, although he did go downfield much more often than RGIII, but nowhere near as often as Luck.

    Ryan Tannehill was a middle-of-the-road guy in terms of overall passing attempts in comparison to his fellow rookies, though his passing offense was conservative in comparison to the veteran QBs in the sample. And poor Brandon Weeden. Not only was the guy asked to pass the ball quite a bit overall, but he was also asked to pass downfield quite a bit in comparison to not only his fellow rookie QBs, but also to the veteran QBs in the sample.

    Part II, coming soon. :)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 3, 2013
  2. rent this space

    rent this space Starter Finheaven VIP

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    The West Coast Offense emphasizes the short pass but I wouldn't characterize it as non-aggressive. Also, the fact that Dolphins don't really have a deep threat has to be a factor as well
     
  3. mega-fin-love

    mega-fin-love Just trust me Donator

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    Not sure what your angle is.......but I like the stats either way. Solid work bro
     
  4. Phinatic8u

    Phinatic8u Adam ****ing Gase

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    Good writeup bro.
     
  5. sharp

    sharp Scout Team

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    Good work

    With my eyes I can see Tannehill is looking to bomb it, just got to get him the right personnel o let him chuck it where he can be at least slightly successful
     
  6. PhinMagic

    PhinMagic A True Fan

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    Wow that really shows how we lack any type of downfield passing game. 2.8 attempts per game of more than 20 yrds? Sheesh. How about 1-2 times per quarter, thats what i want to see.
     
  7. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    How do you make sense of Tannehill's frequency of downfield passing in comparison to RGIII's?
     
  8. Hayden Fox

    Hayden Fox Love Creating Turnovers Donator

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    I never liked Weeden and still think he was an awful pick.
     
  9. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    Problem was that Rt17 wasn't very accurate on those longer throws. early in the year he was 4 of 7 over 31 yards and led the league, Then he missed his next 8 long passes to end the year. And about 6 of those 8 where TD's if RT17 put the ball in the receivers hands.
    in the end he was 4 of 15 on passes over 31 yards and only 10 of 27 on passes between 21 and 31 yards in the air.

    You have to complete more to consider attempting more, otherwise you'll be punting alot. Our offense seemed to need all 3 plays to go right to get a 1st down and continue the drive.
     
  10. Digital

    Digital Starter

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    Nice analysis. What I'd really like to see is an analysis of passes thrown in the air 7 or less yards past the line of scrimmage, 8-15 yards and 16+ yards.

    The only reason I ask is that RGIII made an absolute killing on throwing the bubble screen behind or at the line of scrimmage. That throw requires almost zero skill, pads your completions and TD statistics and is nearly impossible to hurry or intercept. Literally, only a tipped/bobbled catch or a horrific QB decision stops that stat-padding play. But, the play only benefits the offense if your WR catching it is explosive and the other WR's block.

    Washington had the WR's with explosion and blocking ability to run those plays. Most of the other rookie QB's didn't. RGIII ran bubble screens and ran them well, but they aren't the type of throw that tells you anything about how a rookie QB is performing. in my analysis I would leave those type of passes out of the equation. Even a traditional screen requires touch, but the bubble screen doesn't even require that.

    Washington had by far the best WR corps. I think all of these rookie WR's would love to have that WR corps.
     
  11. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I've been on the Wilson bandwagon all the way, but I do think his status as a great rookie QB is over-stated by the media. What he was asked to do he did generally very well, but he leaned heavily on Marshawn Lynch, more so than any other rookie leaned on the run game. He was also given boots and rollouts a lot to help him find throwing lanes. No harm in that, provided you don't become a one-trick pony. Next season will be the acid test for whether that is the case. I don't believe it will be, but it's too early to call.

    So, while he's already confounded most of his doubters simply by starting ahead of Matt Flynn AND helping guide his team to the playoffs, he hasn't proven yet what Luck and RGIII have arguably already proven. Some of you will remind me that RGIII is a chump who will ultimately prove to be a bust, but those of you less willing to prove yourselves right about him would agree he has been effective and pretty durable. He'll have to rein in his more impetuous instincts with the ball under his arm, but he is here to stay and is an artist among so many artisans.

    PS Thanks to the OP for the time taken to do the analysis.
     
  12. MD20

    MD20 Rookie

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    Great work and well thought out post.

    If you ran these same stats for the careers of Joe Montana and Dan Marino, there would be a huge difference by comparison.............................but who won more super bowls? The west coast offense, though "not aggressive", is a proven offense to be successful in the NFL.
     
  13. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    RG3 did get alot of his stats by throwing passes behind the line or within 10 yards of scrimage and letting the receiver run. He had over 1400 yards 10 Td's and 3 Ints with this type of pass.

    But RG3 also was able to complete the long ball. If you compare RG3 and RT17 on passes over 21 yards in the air you'll find pretty close in attempts completions and yards. But RG3 has 4 more TDs. Those missed TD by RT17 did not get misssed by RG3

    RG3 15 of 43 for 552 yards 7 Td's and 0 Ints QBR 122.82
    RT17 14 of 42 for 519 yards 3 Td's and 2 Ints QBR 85.32
     
  14. NYPhin24

    NYPhin24 Scout Team

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    the WRs also make a huge difference on those throws, burners like Garcon and even Moss still has great speed, its a lot easier to project a throw knowing your WR can get significant seperation from the CB and he doesnt have to make the perfect throw every time, the throw to Hartline for a potential TD against the Pats at home, it was debated a lot in a forum, where it looks like Hartline slows down even the slighest bit to find the ball and keeps looking back at the ball instead of running straight ahead, even this past patriots game yes he missed a wide open bush but he was drilled as the ball was being let go he could not step into his throw, also look at that Binns TD drop, that was a perfectly placed deep ball inbetween the CB and the Safety and Binns just drops it, does Garcon/Moss/Wayne/Rice/Tate drop that pass? I doubt it, but it is what it is at this point

    And like another poster mentioned when RT drops back especially off playaction you can see him looking and wanting to go deep down field, but as we saw in the Pats game the WR could just not get seperation and RT either took a sack or in other games took the shorter check down

    I know Clay gets some criticism on here but if you look at 2 of Tannehills deep well placed TD passes, Colts game/Seahawks game, Clay is a mismatch, he got great seperation from the LB and Thill found him and lead him to the fingertips, i hope he can comeback 100% and be utilized more
     
  15. FishTank

    FishTank Well-Known Member

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    You can't just force the ball in there on receivers who aren't getting separation or aren't able to finish a deep route and meet the ball where its placed. Do you ever stop to think that maybe Tannehill is putting the ball where he needs to but the receivers just aren't able to get to it?

    The reason why I will put the burden on the receivers is because Tannehill's deep pass accuracy has never been a serious debate coming out of college. If coaches and scouts would rather talk about other parts of his game, then it seems this is not an area of concern for Ryan.
     
  16. beanh8er

    beanh8er A True Fan Donator

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    Mike Shanahan ball control offense.
     
  17. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    I guess I was surprised most by Griffin's lack of deep throws. That was a strength in college and there certainly were highlight plays this season so I sensed the exploration had been greater. Seems like a waste, frankly.

    There's no doubt the offense was tailored around him, and to boost his confidence, so maybe Shanahan restricted the deep balls in conjuncture. The Redskins seemed to throw more deep balls in the one game Cousins started.

    With Andrew Luck it was like the training wheels were off. He had such fantastic short designs at Stanford, and an offense built around a power running game, that I wondered how he'd transition to the NFL -- and an apparently weak team -- with those strengths absent. It was glaring from the outset that they'd simply wing the ball, and not worry too much about the inevitable interceptions. I think we should have taken more risks with Tannehill.

    Nice thread. I'll look forward to part two. :hclap:
     
  18. Fins1971

    Fins1971 C'mon Dolphins

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    Keep making excuses. Bush was wide open and RT17 missed him, Fasano was wide open and rt17 missed him also. hartline was wide open another 3 times and RT17 missed him.
    Rt17 isn't very good at completing long passes. has nothing to do with receivers. Its on him to make those throws. Will he get better? probably but right now this is not one of his strong suits.
     
  19. Digital

    Digital Starter

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    Thanks. Yeah, 1400 yards, 10 TD's and only 3 INT's really takes stats up to a different level. Without that we see a more indicative picture of how good a passer he can be.

    The WR's make a big difference too. When RGIII throws into tripple coverage and his WR pulls it down in traffic and runs for a TD, that's not a good decision, but it looks great on the stat sheet. When RGIII throws a shallow crossing pattern thrown high over the middle and Garcon turns it into an 88 yard TD, that's a great play. When Tannehill throws the same ball on the same play to our speed WR, its an incompletion.
     
  20. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    i can't understand how people here would not understand how rg3s stats would be padded from a completion percentage and the ability to strike deep with more efficiency...he's running an offense that is predicated entirely off the running game and then running pa off of the read option or the pistol formation...the defense is getting sucked up to the los in an effort to defend the run leaving him with two things wrs who are getting off the los cause of soft coverage on the outside unimpeded and allowed to get down the field and more single coverage looks down the field to take advantage of...there aren't many 2 deep safeties against that offense cause the running game just by the numbers tells you you have the advantage...

    again the entire o is predicated off the read option and pistol looks he's throws the ball behind the los on bubble screens etc more than any other qb in the game in that offense...when the lbs get sucked up off that inside run action he steps back after keeping the ball and bangs you either vertical over the top when the safety bites also on the run action or on routes breaking into the middle of the field over the sucked up lbs and in front of the safety...

    the only thing that keeps that offense from going belly up is rg3's acceleration and speed...you must account for it on every snap...which means if your de gets nosy and bites on that inside action rg3 will keep and run around edge on that soft corner and he's into your secondary before you know it...takes a lot of discipline to defend...it also means a lot of contact for your qb

    there's two reasons that rg3s numbers look so good...he has terrific vertical accuracy and accuracy period when he has good looks but also cause that offense gives him so many good looks to work with and single coverage to attack...he's not seeing any shell coverages and guys able to drop into passing lanes etc because first and foremost you must always account for his speed and acceleration in the running game...

    as for russell wilson you should be able to watch a seahawks game and realize that offense is pretty dumbed down...he takes what he's given underneath rarely throws down the seam in the middle of the field or the gap b/t the lbs and safeties and bangs you vertical off pa when you get nosy against the run...he also and i'm not making excuses just calling it like i see it gets an awful lot of help from his oc with play design and giving him easy throws with rub routes and picks and the use of motion and the way they line up...especially in the red zone...that oc is huge to wilsons game

    brandon weeden...nothing like an overaged limited athlete and that may be kind...that can't get away from pressure and doesn't do a very good job of setting up his protections presnap...he's taken more contact in one nfl game than he took his entire career at okla st and it shows...he's got great vertical accuracy inconsistent intermediate and underneath ball placement and accuracy and will throw the ball into coverage...not to mention he's a finished product...i'm damn glad that's not my qb...

    you don't need statistical analysis to figure these things out...
     
  21. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    Thanks for your contribution. :)
     
  22. FishTank

    FishTank Well-Known Member

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    Fixed that for you. :hump:

    /have to appease the h8rs
     
  23. Digital

    Digital Starter

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    I can accept that BOTH passes are missed passes but both hit the WR in the hands. Re-watch that tape ... same pass and it's a ball that hits his WR in the hands in the same spot really ... not a perfect pass by either QB, but not a missed pass either, it's high over the middle but it hits the WR's hands just like RGIII's pass does, it's just that our WR sucked and Pierre Garcon is excellent. Stats record that as 88 yards and a TD for RGIII, and 0 yards and an Incomplete Pass for Tannehill, but the QB performance is the same for both rookies.

    Friendly amendment not accepted. I stand behind what I wrote originally.
     
  24. Digital

    Digital Starter

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    I think that 5 years down the road all of these rookie QB's will have competent WR's around them and we will know what their passing abilities really are. At that point an apples to apples comparison is possible. But, I think too many variables are in flux at the moment to get any definite answers yet, but all of these rookies are showing good signs.

    IMHO, Tannehill has shown to have the most accuracy of all of these QB's, which frankly shocks me. He routinely nails very small windows and consistently places the ball where only his WR can catch it. Sure, he threw 12 picks, but looking at his throws, he didn't have many INT's dropped, lol. In the game against us Luck had 2 sure-fire INT's dropped and a 3rd possible INT dropped. Tannehill never threw the ball where it could be intercepted that game. Of those 12 picks, several bounced off the WR/TE's hands or chest to become INT's, which obviously isn't the QB's fault. A few more were batted at the line of scrimmage and intercepted, which arguably are the QB's fault, but not the type of thing that happens very often in most seasons.

    What you are looking at for rookie QB's are their accuracy and decision making. Remarkably few of Tannehill's INT's are inaccurate throws. Some are bad decisions, which is to be expected from a rookie who only started 19 collegiate games at QB. But, far less poor decision making than I or most people expected.

    Looking back at Tannehill's INT's, some stand out. Some were not his fault, such as Legadu Naanee quitting on a route leads to an INT. I recall Fasano being blanketed by a LB, Tannehill threading the needle just out of the LB's grasp and hitting Fasano on the chest and the ball bouncing off Fasano's chest into the LB's hands for an INT. Some were his fault, like the multiple blocked passes intercepted against JJ Watt and the Texans on opening day of his rookie season. The worst decision I recall was his opening drive of the 2nd half in the first Jets game where he tried to do too much after Reggie Bush had gone down injured on the last play of the first half ... the hot-sauce injury. Tannehill looked like a rookie then, but didn't repeat that mistake.

    The lack of TD's is mostly because we lack red zone targets and the ability to run in the red zone. We also lack playmakers with break-away speed to score from outside the red zone. Sure, one broken coverage TD to Hartline and one sensational run by Reggie stand out, but we seriously lacked those type of plays. I think this offseason we'll stock up on explosive WR's and red zone threats at WR and TE.
     
  25. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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  26. LoneStarPhin

    LoneStarPhin Well-Known Member

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    Can you explain to me how you know what they were "asked" to run???? Looks more like you just analyzed what they actually threw or did not.

    There is a big difference between the two. There are a dozen variables every play that dictate how the play comes out- including audibles, coverage, line protection, quality of snaps, first down position, game situation/scores, etc....

    If a guy is asked to throw it deep and offense is more designed to throw deep, but he continually checks down, are you concluding he was asked to do less and he performed it very capably? Just not sure how you reconcile that.
     
  27. Vaark

    Vaark Nihil taurus crappus Finheaven VIP Donator

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    If you're talking postseason, Matt Ryan is 1-4 in the pros (1-5 incl college), has scored a total of 24pts over 12 2nd half quarters (14 if you want to include the ACC championship) and his playoff YPA is 6.6 since according to you that's an important precursor of future success. Not so hot eh? So if the brass ring is the prize, I dunno that he should be included in the top echelon. As far as Luck goes, I did a study yesterday in response to YPAs, that he's a different QB this year and last with Reggie Wayne. Over the 4 games he's missed Reggie, he's beaten TN twice and lost to 2 winning teams while running up a 6.1ypa "after Reggie" while by comparison over the last 4 games with Tannehill still missing Gibson, Keller, and a non bi-polar running game, Tannehill is 3-1 with a 7.2YPA. One can only wonder what would have been if Ireland had signed REggie last season when he professed a desire to come home. I will grant you that Luck has demonstrated more of the clutch gene than Tannehill is beginning to exhibit, and none of the choke gene that Ryan has demonstrated when it's balls to the wall or you're one and done for the season.
     
  28. tcdrover

    tcdrover Pro Bowler

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    Yeah, that's my POV as well.

    If Wilson or Luck had Wallace on their teams their numbers would be much bigger is my guess.

    The O-line plays a big factor, the Defense and how the team competes as well. The coaches style on play calling will factor in,
    but there were many plays this season where guys were open deep and Ryan did not have time to throw to them or
    didn't find them for whatever reason.

    " And who was asked to throw the ball downfield the least? That's right: the rookie QB with the highest QB rating of them all, and the second highest QB rating in the league at 102.4, none other than RGIII (a preview of "Part II" of this thread)."


    This is kind of screwy logic. The QB rating will in large part reflect the kind of throws the QB makes successfully. Short passes are higher percentage throws. We don't know what they are being asked to do
    but we can see WRs running 30 yards down the field...
     
  29. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth inside my DNA Finheaven VIP

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    Objective?

    [​IMG]
     
  30. Krie30511

    Krie30511 Seasoned Veteran

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    WHATT? Mike Wallace is not a deep threat?
     
  31. rent this space

    rent this space Starter Finheaven VIP

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    Check the date on that post
     
  32. Sarnics13

    Sarnics13 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I have not even read the original post to this thread, but based on the author....and the title of the thread I GUARANTEE you that it is riddled with stats to point out (and no doubt is said in the post) that Tannehill is "average".
     
  33. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    I think that's a good clarification, but I also think it amounts to a distinction without a difference in terms of the above analysis, in that regardless of what these QBs were asked to run, they ended up passing the ball more or less aggressively (or conservatively) in terms of downfield throws.

    So yes, while it may be true that Andrew Luck may not have been asked to throw the ball downfield any more often than the other QBs, the fact remains that when you evaluate his performance last year, you should certainly in my opinion take into account that he did throw the ball downfield far more often, and therefore his "degree of difficulty," if you will, was greater than that of the other QBs above.

    ---------- Post added at 12:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:24 PM ----------

    Like I said in another thread, it's a great "mental shortcut" to simply be able to cast aside any and all information based simply on who's providing it! :lol: ;)
     
  34. Sarnics13

    Sarnics13 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    No it's called a forgone conclusion based simply on who's providing it. but if a mental shortcut is what it needs to be to cast aside particular peoples agenda that is being CONSTANTLY brought up, because it gets old.....then I am the King almighty of mental shortcuts.
     
  35. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    Well if you've gotten the message that Tannehill is indeed currently about average in just about every way, then I agree, you can probably cast aside a great deal of what I say regarding Tannehill without missing a beat. :up:

    Stay tuned, however, because if he increases or decreases significantly from average, I'll be telling you all about that, too, and you won't want to miss that, I'm sure. ;)
     
  36. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    The Colts have really stopped running the ball since Reggie Wayne's injury against Denver. That's been one of the most glaring developments of the season, even if few are talking about it. After Wayne's injury they have had games with 14, 14, 15 and 12 rushes. That's a terrible way to manage a game plan around Andrew Luck, who thrived in college with such a physical and persistent running game. He took advantage of underneath routes and wide open tight ends partially due to the opponent forced to respect the running game. The Colts are similarly most effective when the running game is used early, even if those plays don't gain any yards.

    It's not so much that Luck has declined after Wayne's injury, as that the scheme and lack of balance have worked against him. Based on his offense in college and the types of throws he's always defaulted to, he's not the guy to be back there in a shotgun winging it 40 times per game. Last year the Colts had some low rushing attempt games early in the season but then got away from it, once Arians took over.

    Arians is a sharper guy and better coach than Pagano, if you want a blunt summary.
     
  37. russianbear

    russianbear A True Fan

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    shouright the almighty king of qb evaluation. line up the stats that work for you, and point out where tannehill stands. who needs to even watch the games?

    none of your stats or threads are predictive, but im curious as to YOUR opinion of how tannehill will develop down the road. do you do that sort of stuff?
     
  38. EvilDylan

    EvilDylan A True Fan Donator

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    I think the ability of elite veteran qb's to sustain drives is also a contributing factor to some of this.
     
  39. LoneStarPhin

    LoneStarPhin Well-Known Member

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    Wow- there was so much wrong with your logic right off the bat that I did not waste a lot of time with the rest. I think I agree with Sarnics above. And it's hardly a "mental shortcut" discarding the message from an unworthy messenger.

    On to more worthy posts!
     
  40. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    Enjoy! :up:
     
  41. LoneStarPhin

    LoneStarPhin Well-Known Member

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    By the way, when and if you ever realize how good Tannehill is, please don't claim that you were some seer who recognized how average he was originally and now he's great, and here's the stats why. In reality, you were just one of the people who failed to recognize what most did before you.
     
  42. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    http://www.finheaven.com/showthread...ill-Going-to-Become-a-Franchise-QB&highlight=

    http://www.finheaven.com/showthread...g-to-Become-a-Franchise-QB-Part-II&highlight=
     
  43. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    It's true that the stats aren't necessarily predictive. They are simply a superior method of evaluation than virtually every subjective measure. It's not much different than index funds defeating managed funds. The more decisions are made, the further from the truth.

    And once the sample size is large enough, the numbers almost predict themselves. Tannehill was 7.0 YPA in his first season at starter at Texas A&M, then 7.1 as a senior. He's followed that with 6.8 and 6.8 (so far) in his two NFL seasons. That's why I always emphasize it's dangerous to predict greatness when greatness has never surfaced previously. Russell Wilson has managed 8 yards per attempt or higher for three different teams since 2009.
     
  44. Sons Of Shula

    Sons Of Shula not a dull boy Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Well ****, I can't wait to make spend another first round draft pick on a QB with the highest YPA. SUPER BOWL HERE WE COME!!

    (Please recognize my sarcasm in it's most profound form)
     
  45. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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  46. EricCartman

    EricCartman Well-Known Member Donator

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    couldn't be system-based, having Tannehill played in the same Sherman's system in NCAA and NFL? I have not read the entire thread, so I apologize if it was already explained (or if the Offense at A&M was really the same as in the Dolphins)
     
  47. Sarnics13

    Sarnics13 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I think most of your stat threads are total lunacy.....but I'll give you credit, your comebacks when you aren't spewing stats..........crack me up. I can appreciate whit even when it's directed at me. Kudos!
     
  48. FinfanInBuffalo

    FinfanInBuffalo Perennial All-Pro Finheaven VIP Donator

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    6.9, 6.3, 6.9 Tom Brady's YPA during his first three seasons. Some Dolphins fans would have been calling for him to be replaced.....

    6.7 - Andrew Luck's YPA this year... cut him now!

    6.2 - Drew Brees YPA in his second season. The slacker.

    6.8 - Russell Wilson's YPA in his THIRD year of starting at NC State. No wonder he got run out of town.

    6.9 - Matt Ryan's career YPA at Boston College. Why was he ever drafted?

    6.5, 6.5 - Matt Ryan's YPA for his 2nd and third pro season. Should have been cut....

    6.9 - Phillip Rivers' YPA in his 2nd year as a starter.

    That's at least 6 QBs that people put ahead of Tannehill that should be grateful that the fickle fans on this site aren't making personnel decisions.
     
  49. russianbear

    russianbear A True Fan

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    In those threads you kind of let the stats speak for themselves, and the data "supports" that he has "the tools" to become one. I was more or less looking for YOUR opinion. You sort of hide your opinion behind the stats, not that it bothers me, I'm just truly curious if you have an opinion on the matter..
     
  50. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    I base my opinions on the objective evidence. I'd say he has a good chance of becoming successful at the level need to make the team highly competitive, but that he clearly isn't there yet.
     

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