your missing a few things in your assessment in my mind.
first you have to assume that peyton is healthy enough to play. Personally, I don't think peyton manning has it in him to con somebody into thinking he is healthy just to cut a check.
that being said, you are talking about a proven franchise, superbowl winning quarterback, who has been to two more superbowls in a handful of years than we have been to in something like 30 years, against a 27 year old or 28 year old matt flynn, who was a 7th round pick, and has subsequently started a total of two nfl games. Does that even make sense... your trying to convince me you'd rather have a station wagon than a ferrari.
Is peyton a risk? I'd say yes probably. It could fail and implode in our faces. Is it any more of a risk than matt flynn? How can you tell? How can you answer? Could peyton theoretically take us to the superbowl in 1-2 years... i think yes... is it my expectation... not really... should it be every dolphin fans expectation... probably not.
a lot of things have to happen for a team to go to the superbowl. I won't insult your intelligence by making an elementary list of said things... point is, peyton manning is our best chance to win the AFC east, and make a playoff push...
we can still draft a qb this year or even next year to be waiting in the wings when peyton is done. we can have two years to groom a quarterback, behind a legit franchise qb... I'm on record as believing however, that it's not peytons job to mentor and bring up a young qb... IMO, thats why we pay a coaching staff... a young qb, needs to watch peyton follow peyton... and the staff needs to nurture his progress... I think philbin and this staff actually have the capability to do that with a rookie qb, whereas I don't think the previous staff did....
Peyton to miami fixes two things... it allows ross a crack at his "win now" mentality everyone says he supposedly has, and we can still please philbin, by supplementing and building for the future in the draft...
If marino would have wanted to continue playing after JJ ushered him out, how many ppl would say they didnt' think marino was worth the risk cuz of the knee or the achilles and the limited mobility... NONE... in my estimation. while peyton and marino are two seperate players, theirs no deyning that peyton manning is worth the risk... he doesn't cost draft picks. hes anywhere from an incentive laden deal, to an above average contract risk... even if he commands big money, I'm not sure you could convince me he wasn't worth the risk.
we need to get this guy. In four years flyyn will be what 31, 32??? than it's probably time to start grooming the next guy anyway, so do you want 3-4 years of peyton, or 3-4 years of flynn... I'll take my chances on the 4x mvp.