Michigan's latest loss has many questioning where the Wolverines will turn if the ship isn't righted soon. Here's some of what we know is true, including some facts and opinion -
First off, Nov. 13 is a big day. One of the boards that report to the A.D. will be meeting with President Mark Schlissel, who has the authority to make hirings and firings. Athletic director David Brandon will be the subject, and he does have his supporters.
Schlissel is setting meetings with several - and we mean several - people to address the issues within the athletic department and try to get a clear picture of what's going on. Comparing notes Saturday in the press box with many of those following this saga closely (one in particular we trust and who has been covering this as well as anyone), it's clear nobody knows for certain what Schlissel will do.
The timeline is critical here. If there's going to be a coaching change (and yes, this season constitutes a complete collapse, Saturday's pregame stake in the ground incident ironically being another stake in the program's heart), they need to have the guy in place to make that hire, whether it's Brandon or somebody else.
So we move on to the elephant in the room - that no "big name" coach will come work for Brandon.
The one big name everyone talks about is Jim Harbaugh (or John Harbaugh potentially). This is one that has spread quickly, and as of now, at least, it's true. Harbaugh would never say it publicly out of respect for Brady Hoke - Hoke coached for his father, Jack, at Western Michigan, and Jack and John, particularly, love Hoke - but he is seriously interested in U-M as his next potential destination, with one caveat: that he's not back in San Francisco next year. Despite all that's being said publicly, this is still a possibility, and a very real one.
Harbaugh, too, seems to change his mind every couple of days. It's who he is. We spoke with him personally the summer heading into his last year with Stanford (and Rich Rodriguez' last year with Michigan) for an article on the 25th anniversary of the 1985 team for the Football Preview. He wanted to see U-M succeed, but he also made it clear he wanted to coach at Michigan. He even called from a mountaintop in Peru (where he was building houses for Habitat for Humanity) to speak with us.
When Michigan went through its coaching search, Harbaugh committed twice. Those who wanted to blame someone blamed Brandon, asking, "Was Jim ever officially offered the job?" And that was semantics.
When asked about it, Harbaugh admitted it was a tough decision for him. He had so many options. He had become the hottest coach in football, and that San Francisco wanted him (he didn't even have to move) and gave him a chance to win at the highest level made it the most attractive option. But make no mistake - there were some who didn't like Brandon who were in his ear.
If there's a 'rift' between Brandon and Harbaugh, it wouldn't be hard to see why.
Brandon, of course, hired Brady Hoke, who was always a strong candidate. He won almost everyone over after his first press conference (Desmond Howard, all former alums). He got it. He won over just about everyone else after his first year, an overachieving 11-2 season. How we got here (a blowout loss to MSU in year four) is another story for another day, but those on the Michigan State side we spoke with in the press box yesterday say the MSU coaches - who recruited many of U-M's current players - cite the lack of player development both on the field and in the weight room as two damning indictments.
And they hope it's status quo in the department next year, because they feel it's toxic. And they know toxic, having gone through it before.
But if it comes down to it, would a big name coach work under David Brandon? Some believe it would take someone like Brandon to convince the board they need to spend money to do it, and it's ridiculous to think nobody would accept a big deal. Schlissel has made it clear that commercialism isn't the department's goal, but donors, etc. have been with him, too, to let him know how important the health of the football program is to the University. But again, unless there is relationship mending there - and let's be honest, money talks - it won't be a Harbaugh.
And as one huge donor said recently, "would Brandon even take a chance to go that route again?" And if you don't believe it, throw a party for some of those big donors, have a drink with them and sit back and enjoy. These are the people who know the truth and are kept in the loop.
Some peg it as a 30 percent chance Harbaugh would end up in Ann Arbor with the right people in place. Opinion here - if there's an opening (and there are a few who still believe Hoke will be here next year, wondering if Schlissel understands and appreciates the sense of urgency given recruiting, etc.), it should be a three-man list of Jim Harbaugh, Jim Harbaugh and Jim Harbaugh. That's what it's going to take to get Michigan football back where it needs to be as quickly as possible, even if he is a bit - well, unpredictable.
And he's interested. Oakland is another possibility, but it seems less likely. Miami would be (donor Stephen Ross owns the Dolphins), but the franchise seems to be headed in the right direction and there might not be an opening.
Yes, Harbaugh has a family to consider, too. His parents would love to see him back in the Midwest. His wife will also have a say, however, and it's true she might balk at the move (though we don't necessarily think it's a deal breaker).
Any other names being thrown out as potential replacements - well, that's all speculation at this point until the A.D. situation is resolved, and until there's an opening, really. We should know more in the middle of the month where that's headed