Actually it IS luck. Not COMPLETE luck, but luck nonetheless. Look at it this way. If any person is a good judge of talent, AND if there is no luck, they will 'hit' on top players with EVERY pick. They don't. Certainly, there are evaluators who are better than others just as there are stock pickers better than others, but denying luck is denying reality. And, like gambling, some evaluators get a hot hand. Luck comes in clusters. Again, not claiming there is NO skill and not denying some are better than others, but, given no evaluator 'hits' on a R1 pick every year and most R1 picks are busts (fans seem to think those picks should be 1st year HOF or 'busts'), it's clear skill only goes so far. Not saying Baum is a top evaluator (I'm not his fan), but never fall for those turning the world as black and white. In fact, anyone denying, for example, Baum has NO postives or Tannehill has no flaws, should be ignored as baffons.