ckparrothead
Premium Member
Every quarterback in college football does worse against good defenses. They all pad their stats against the poor defenses of the world. That's not a surprise. If you're surprised by that fact, you should go ahead and watch about three more years of college football before you start arguing about it.
This study was started, and solely intended to give an apples-to-apples comparison of Brady Quinn and Jamarcus Russell against top notch defenses.
Before we dig into what each quarterback did, let's take a look at the caliber of defense that these quarterbacks played this season, and this will help us to define the better defenses that each played.
Jamarcus Russell's Schedule (in points per game):
24.7, 19.6, 13.9, 33.3, 25.8, 13.5, 29.1, 28.3, 19.5, 18.0, 22.9, 18.4, 22.4
Total Average: 22.3 points per game
Brady Quinn's Schedule (in points per game):
16.8, 14.8, 14.6, 28.4, 26.9, 31.4, 17.9, 19.7, 30.5, 25.2, 27.9, 14.9, 13.5
Total Average: 21.7 points per game
Surprising? Not necessarily. I think everyone gives in a little bit to the mystique of the SEC defenses, and in general it is deserved, but the fact of the matter is that Notre Dame regularly faced some of the toughest defenses in college football during 2006. But, am I going to sit here and gripe about the difference between 22.3 points per game and 21.7 points per game? Heck no. Not significant.
Four of Notre Dame's opponents allowed less than 15 points per game. Only 12 D1-A teams allowed less than 15 points per game, and Notre Dame played 4 of them. Jamarcus Russell and LSU only played 2 of them.
Now, Notre Dame played 3 teams that allowed between 15 and 20 points per game, where LSU played 4 such teams...and Notre Dame had the privelege of playing 6 teams that allowed over 25 points per game, where Jamarcus Russell and LSU only played 4 such teams.
So what do we do with all this data? Well I don't know about you guys but I'm personally not interested in the 6 games Notre Dame played against defenses that allow 25+ points per game, or the 4 games LSU played against such porous defenses. I think we can all agree on that.
My humble suggestion, and indeed what I originally did, was to look at how these guys did against teams that allowed less than 20 points per game. For Brady Quinn, this included Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, Navy, UCLA, USC and LSU. For Jamarcus Russell, this included Arizona, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, and Arkansas.
Now, I *could* go down to 15 points per game, which I would really define as an "elite" defense...but I don't know if that would be a good measure just because while this would involve a good 4 games for Notre Dame, it would only be 2 games for LSU. More on that later. For now, let's stick to defenses that allowed under 20 points per game.
Jamarcus Russell vs. Arizona, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama and Arkansas
113 of 175 (64.6%), 1357 yards (7.8 ypa), 11 TDs (6.3%), 7 INTs (4.0%). 92.5 QBR
Jamarcus Russell vs. Everyone Else
119 of 167 (71.3%), 1772 yards (10.6 ypa), 17 TDs (10.2%), 1 INTs (0.6%). 137.1 QBR
Brady Quinn vs. Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, Navy, UCLA, USC and LSU
154 of 272 (56.6%), 1788 yards (6.6 ypa), 16 TDs (5.9%), 5 INTs (1.8%). 88.6 QBR
Brady Quinn vs. Everyone Else
135 of 195 (69.2%), 1638 yards (8.4 ypa), 21 TDs (10.8%), 2 INTs (1.0%). 126.4 QBR
So basically, Jamarcus Russell had a better quarterback rating against the good defenses. But, well to keep in mind, he had a better quarterback rating period, as evidenced by his performing better against the bad defenses.
I believe the point to note here, is that the disparity is VERY similar, between the two quarterbacks. Jamarcus Russell goes from a 137.1 rating to a 92.5 rating when he faces a good defense. Brady Quinn goes from a 126.4 rating to an 88.6 rating. It is really strikingly similar, between them.
So what about points scored? What I mean to say is, it is possible for a quarterback to rack up a few stats during a game but have the offense be generally very ineffective...and indeed this is I'm sure what people that do not like Brady Quinn would say.
Jamarcus Russell's offense scored 24.2 points per game against these good defenses. The defenses allowed on average 17.2 points per game.
Brady Quinn's offense scored 24.6 points per game against these good defenses. The defenses allowed on average 16.0 points per game.
Translation: Brady Quinn had a QB Rating of 88.6 and his offense scored 24.6 points per game, against 7 defenses that averaged 16.0 points allowed per game. Jamarcus Russell had a QB Rating of 92.5 and his offense scored 24.2 points per game, against 6 defenses that averaged 17.2 points allowed per game.
Now, there seem to be a lot of strong feelings going on about Brady Quinn and Jamarcus Russell. There's a lot of anti-Quinn sentiment and I really don't expect anything I say here to sway them because, let's be honest, Jesus could come down from the clouds and appear to us all and say he has annointed Brady Quinn to be the best quarterback in the history of the world, and most of the people that don't like Quinn would probably accuse Jesus of being just another biased Notre Dame fan.
That's fine. But I'll go a little further anyway.
I mentioned the "elite" defenses before...those defenses that allowed less than 15 points per game. There are 6 teams that Quinn and Russell played against, that fit the bill. These are LSU, Florida, Auburn, Michigan, Penn State, and USC.
Do a study involving these two quarterbacks going up against these six defenses, and the whole "Brady Quinn sucks against good defenses" criticism should really just go away. At least, compared to Jamarcus Russell it should.
Quinn vs. "The Elite"
86 of 154, 943 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs :: 77.9 QB Rating, 25.0 Points Per Game
Russell vs. "The Elite"
44 of 76, 497 yards, 1 TDs, 3 INTs :: 65.5 QB Rating, 6.5 Points Per Game
Of course I know I'm going to hear the same old stuff over and over again. Stats be damned, stats be damned. Burn the books, break the glasses.
Whatever. This is just collected evidence. The FACT of the matter is that I just do not understand how Brady Quinn gets criticized for doing poorly against Michigan and LSU while Jamarcus Russell gets off the hook for his poor performances against Florida and Auburn.
Why? Is it because people think Notre Dame actually had a better surrounding cast? Really? Jeff Samardzija, Rhema McKnight and John Carlson vs. Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis, and Early Doucet? I don't think so. No way. Any scout would take the LSU cast over and over again before they take the Notre Dame crew.
What about Darius Walker vs. Justin Vincent and Alley Broussard? Again, I take Vincent and Broussard, though this one is close.
What about the Notre Dame offensive line vs. the LSU offensive line? Again, advantage LSU. I take Will Arnold, Herman Johnson, Brett Helms, Brian Johnson, and Peter Dyakowski...over Ryan Harris, Bob Morton, John Sullivan, Dan Santucci, and Sam Young. This one is a little tough, but the LSU offensive line has a much better record against the tougher defensive lines where the Notre Dame offensive line leaked like a sieve.
So, Brady Quinn scored more points against better defenses and had a better QB rating against elite defenses. Jamarcus Russell did better against good defenses and poor defenses.
So, at least for now in relation to Jamarcus Russell, I hope people realize that Brady Quinn did better against the best defenses.
This study was started, and solely intended to give an apples-to-apples comparison of Brady Quinn and Jamarcus Russell against top notch defenses.
Before we dig into what each quarterback did, let's take a look at the caliber of defense that these quarterbacks played this season, and this will help us to define the better defenses that each played.
Jamarcus Russell's Schedule (in points per game):
24.7, 19.6, 13.9, 33.3, 25.8, 13.5, 29.1, 28.3, 19.5, 18.0, 22.9, 18.4, 22.4
Total Average: 22.3 points per game
Brady Quinn's Schedule (in points per game):
16.8, 14.8, 14.6, 28.4, 26.9, 31.4, 17.9, 19.7, 30.5, 25.2, 27.9, 14.9, 13.5
Total Average: 21.7 points per game
Surprising? Not necessarily. I think everyone gives in a little bit to the mystique of the SEC defenses, and in general it is deserved, but the fact of the matter is that Notre Dame regularly faced some of the toughest defenses in college football during 2006. But, am I going to sit here and gripe about the difference between 22.3 points per game and 21.7 points per game? Heck no. Not significant.
Four of Notre Dame's opponents allowed less than 15 points per game. Only 12 D1-A teams allowed less than 15 points per game, and Notre Dame played 4 of them. Jamarcus Russell and LSU only played 2 of them.
Now, Notre Dame played 3 teams that allowed between 15 and 20 points per game, where LSU played 4 such teams...and Notre Dame had the privelege of playing 6 teams that allowed over 25 points per game, where Jamarcus Russell and LSU only played 4 such teams.
So what do we do with all this data? Well I don't know about you guys but I'm personally not interested in the 6 games Notre Dame played against defenses that allow 25+ points per game, or the 4 games LSU played against such porous defenses. I think we can all agree on that.
My humble suggestion, and indeed what I originally did, was to look at how these guys did against teams that allowed less than 20 points per game. For Brady Quinn, this included Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, Navy, UCLA, USC and LSU. For Jamarcus Russell, this included Arizona, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, and Arkansas.
Now, I *could* go down to 15 points per game, which I would really define as an "elite" defense...but I don't know if that would be a good measure just because while this would involve a good 4 games for Notre Dame, it would only be 2 games for LSU. More on that later. For now, let's stick to defenses that allowed under 20 points per game.
Jamarcus Russell vs. Arizona, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama and Arkansas
113 of 175 (64.6%), 1357 yards (7.8 ypa), 11 TDs (6.3%), 7 INTs (4.0%). 92.5 QBR
Jamarcus Russell vs. Everyone Else
119 of 167 (71.3%), 1772 yards (10.6 ypa), 17 TDs (10.2%), 1 INTs (0.6%). 137.1 QBR
Brady Quinn vs. Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, Navy, UCLA, USC and LSU
154 of 272 (56.6%), 1788 yards (6.6 ypa), 16 TDs (5.9%), 5 INTs (1.8%). 88.6 QBR
Brady Quinn vs. Everyone Else
135 of 195 (69.2%), 1638 yards (8.4 ypa), 21 TDs (10.8%), 2 INTs (1.0%). 126.4 QBR
So basically, Jamarcus Russell had a better quarterback rating against the good defenses. But, well to keep in mind, he had a better quarterback rating period, as evidenced by his performing better against the bad defenses.
I believe the point to note here, is that the disparity is VERY similar, between the two quarterbacks. Jamarcus Russell goes from a 137.1 rating to a 92.5 rating when he faces a good defense. Brady Quinn goes from a 126.4 rating to an 88.6 rating. It is really strikingly similar, between them.
So what about points scored? What I mean to say is, it is possible for a quarterback to rack up a few stats during a game but have the offense be generally very ineffective...and indeed this is I'm sure what people that do not like Brady Quinn would say.
Jamarcus Russell's offense scored 24.2 points per game against these good defenses. The defenses allowed on average 17.2 points per game.
Brady Quinn's offense scored 24.6 points per game against these good defenses. The defenses allowed on average 16.0 points per game.
Translation: Brady Quinn had a QB Rating of 88.6 and his offense scored 24.6 points per game, against 7 defenses that averaged 16.0 points allowed per game. Jamarcus Russell had a QB Rating of 92.5 and his offense scored 24.2 points per game, against 6 defenses that averaged 17.2 points allowed per game.
Now, there seem to be a lot of strong feelings going on about Brady Quinn and Jamarcus Russell. There's a lot of anti-Quinn sentiment and I really don't expect anything I say here to sway them because, let's be honest, Jesus could come down from the clouds and appear to us all and say he has annointed Brady Quinn to be the best quarterback in the history of the world, and most of the people that don't like Quinn would probably accuse Jesus of being just another biased Notre Dame fan.
That's fine. But I'll go a little further anyway.
I mentioned the "elite" defenses before...those defenses that allowed less than 15 points per game. There are 6 teams that Quinn and Russell played against, that fit the bill. These are LSU, Florida, Auburn, Michigan, Penn State, and USC.
Do a study involving these two quarterbacks going up against these six defenses, and the whole "Brady Quinn sucks against good defenses" criticism should really just go away. At least, compared to Jamarcus Russell it should.
Quinn vs. "The Elite"
86 of 154, 943 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs :: 77.9 QB Rating, 25.0 Points Per Game
Russell vs. "The Elite"
44 of 76, 497 yards, 1 TDs, 3 INTs :: 65.5 QB Rating, 6.5 Points Per Game
Of course I know I'm going to hear the same old stuff over and over again. Stats be damned, stats be damned. Burn the books, break the glasses.
Whatever. This is just collected evidence. The FACT of the matter is that I just do not understand how Brady Quinn gets criticized for doing poorly against Michigan and LSU while Jamarcus Russell gets off the hook for his poor performances against Florida and Auburn.
Why? Is it because people think Notre Dame actually had a better surrounding cast? Really? Jeff Samardzija, Rhema McKnight and John Carlson vs. Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis, and Early Doucet? I don't think so. No way. Any scout would take the LSU cast over and over again before they take the Notre Dame crew.
What about Darius Walker vs. Justin Vincent and Alley Broussard? Again, I take Vincent and Broussard, though this one is close.
What about the Notre Dame offensive line vs. the LSU offensive line? Again, advantage LSU. I take Will Arnold, Herman Johnson, Brett Helms, Brian Johnson, and Peter Dyakowski...over Ryan Harris, Bob Morton, John Sullivan, Dan Santucci, and Sam Young. This one is a little tough, but the LSU offensive line has a much better record against the tougher defensive lines where the Notre Dame offensive line leaked like a sieve.
So, Brady Quinn scored more points against better defenses and had a better QB rating against elite defenses. Jamarcus Russell did better against good defenses and poor defenses.
So, at least for now in relation to Jamarcus Russell, I hope people realize that Brady Quinn did better against the best defenses.
