Quinn & Russell vs. Top Defenses

[Agent51]

were quinn's numbers vs. the elite inflated by having to play catch up? 2 of his TD's came in the 4th quarter of blowout loses.

how many of the int's were the qb's fault? quinn had one vs. lsu that bounced off mcknight and landry picked it off. 2 of russell's 3 int's vs. florida bounced off of bowe's hands.

stats never tell the whole story.

Were Russells numbers (especially TD to attempts ratio) inflated by having the system altered to focus more on patterns outside the has marks and down the field to take advantage of his arm strength instead of inside and over the middle stuff into coverage where he struggled?

Would his TD ratio, or completion %, etc etc be that high if he was asked to make all those tough inside throws too?

You're right, stats never tell the whole story, and the arguement works both ways.

 

[Kdawg954]

I mean Quinn is a better fit for this team and Cam's system.

But to be fair to Russell . . . at Auburn and at Florida . . . . many QB's have had problems in those environments. Hell Florida shut down Ohio State, who put up 38 points on that Michigan defense. Plus it was 34-7 Michigan against Notre Dame at one point. LSU grinded 2 games w/ Florida and Auburn. I mean IMO Russell played better D's w/ his elite than Brady . . . stats may show otherwise. I mean I can't say Brady Quinn performed better against elite D's because he put up some decent numbers against Michigan and USC when his team was clearly out of the game. U compared 2 of Russell's game w/ 4 of Quinn's . . . try throwing out the Penn State game @ home and compare again w/ LSU wins @ Arkansas or @ Tennessee.

Brady against Michigan at home, @ USC and bowl game vs. LSU

Russell @ Florida, @ Auburn or @ Tennessee/@ Arkansas

 

[BlueFin]

Interesting, great job CK.

Kind of backs up the theory that a QB can be doing a pretty good job even when his team is outmatched as an entire squad.

Thats a five.

 

[Boomer]

But Chris, Brady Quinn can't beat good teams.

FLMAO.

 

[Motion]

Great post.

This is exactly why I want nothing to do with Russell, sure he's physical freak but I've seen him meltdown against the tops teams time and time again.

 

[ckparrothead]

But Chris, Brady Quinn can't beat good teams.

FLMAO.

Damnit! I always forget that...

 

[O'townPhinFan]

This thread blows and it is not that informative...... BQ sucks and we all know it....

J/K Chris......love the thread man. I am all for him if he is there but you know....like I have said all along.... I hope DC is back and proves everyone wrong as to not put too much pressure on whoever we draft.

Excellent thread my man.....very good read. I always look forward to your posts. Always detailed and thought out.:cooldude:

 

[lotion]

Best info I've seen on the subject yet. Good job. If Cleveland does not pick him I will be AMAZED if he is not a fin.

 

[ckparrothead]

Thanks for the compliments guys.

Try to keep in mind, I speak very strongly about these guys and I'm very assertive, and that can often get mistaken for bias. But, I think my record of opinions kind of shows none of the obvious or mistaken commonalities that would suggest that I am consistently biased in any particular direction.

I mean, I openly pandered to Daunte Culpepper over Drew Brees in 2006.

Yet, here I am talking up Brady Quinn (who compares well with Drew Brees except for the height) over Jamarcus Russell (who compares quite obviously with Daunte Culpepper).

And, it is a widely held view that I hate Joey Harrington, who certainly looks a lot more like Brady Quinn than Jamarcus Russell.

I tend to let the information and the observations come to me, and then I run with them. I'm not a Notre Dame fan, in fact I said before the college season that they were very overrated due mostly to a good QB but that he can't win a national championship by himself or compete with the other stacked teams out there.

With the way I run with my conclusions, I'm often in danger of clinging to a sinking ship. With that in mind, considering what I thought of ND's chances of winning the championship, the very last thing people should accuse me of is liking Quinn because he played at ND under Charlie Weis (a man I detest on a personal level). But, on the bright side I do try to be mindful not to keep clinging to a sinking ship with the signs written on the wall all around me and some of you will notice that I've pretty drastically changed my tune about Daunte Culpepper's chances in this new system with the new staff...

 

[Finfanforever]

Ck...

Thanks for the compliments guys.

Try to keep in mind, I speak very strongly about these guys and I'm very assertive, and that can often get mistaken for bias. But, I think my record of opinions kind of shows none of the obvious or mistaken commonalities that would suggest that I am consistently biased in any particular direction.

I mean, I openly pandered to Daunte Culpepper over Drew Brees in 2006.

Yet, here I am talking up Brady Quinn (who compares well with Drew Brees except for the height) over Jamarcus Russell (who compares quite obviously with Daunte Culpepper).

And, it is a widely held view that I hate Joey Harrington, who certainly looks a lot more like Brady Quinn than Jamarcus Russell.

I tend to let the information and the observations come to me, and then I run with them. I'm not a Notre Dame fan, in fact I said before the college season that they were very overrated due mostly to a good QB but that he can't win a national championship by himself or compete with the other stacked teams out there.

With the way I run with my conclusions, I'm often in danger of clinging to a sinking ship. With that in mind, considering what I thought of ND's chances of winning the championship, the very last thing people should accuse me of is liking Quinn because he played at ND under Charlie Weis (a man I detest on a personal level). But, on the bright side I do try to be mindful not to keep clinging to a sinking ship with the signs written on the wall all around me and some of you will notice that I've pretty drastically changed my tune about Daunte Culpepper's chances in this new system with the new staff...

I REALLY expect C-Pep to be dealt for a pick(s) on draft day...I just got a gut feeling. Your Thoughts???

 

[BlueFin]

Thanks for the compliments guys.

Try to keep in mind, I speak very strongly about these guys and I'm very assertive, and that can often get mistaken for bias. But, I think my record of opinions kind of shows none of the obvious or mistaken commonalities that would suggest that I am consistently biased in any particular direction.

I mean, I openly pandered to Daunte Culpepper over Drew Brees in 2006.

Yet, here I am talking up Brady Quinn (who compares well with Drew Brees except for the height) over Jamarcus Russell (who compares quite obviously with Daunte Culpepper).

And, it is a widely held view that I hate Joey Harrington, who certainly looks a lot more like Brady Quinn than Jamarcus Russell.

I tend to let the information and the observations come to me, and then I run with them. I'm not a Notre Dame fan, in fact I said before the college season that they were very overrated due mostly to a good QB but that he can't win a national championship by himself or compete with the other stacked teams out there.

With the way I run with my conclusions, I'm often in danger of clinging to a sinking ship. With that in mind, considering what I thought of ND's chances of winning the championship, the very last thing people should accuse me of is liking Quinn because he played at ND under Charlie Weis (a man I detest on a personal level). But, on the bright side I do try to be mindful not to keep clinging to a sinking ship with the signs written on the wall all around me and some of you will notice that I've pretty drastically changed my tune about Daunte Culpepper's chances in this new system with the new staff...

All true, I myself will admit to changing my tune about Culpepper.

I was always a fan of DC going back to Central Florida, I am guilty of being wrong about his ability to read NFL defenses, though many were saying it, that Culpepper benefitted from having Randy Moss and Chris Carter and perhaps a somewhat simplified system in Minnesota.

I no longer think this is just about his injury, though I do think a healthy Culpepper can hide some of his other weaknesses better than the less than 100% Culpepper we saw last year.

I believe a part of what went into Sabans thinking was the knowledge, and belief, that he blew the QB decision between Brees and Culpepper.

I am not a Notre Dame fan, but from what I've seen of Brady Quinn he does see the field well and seems to have the ability to find the open man, I have witnessed in my lifetime this team draft two QB's in round one and watched them go to the hall of fame.

I am sick of this team not drafting QB's over the last decade or so.

 

[fullerboy1]

Like ND in the Sugar Bowl. Padded his stats so much against a horrible defense that he is now the #1 overall draft pick.

You seem to be one of those guys that favor one guy no matter what.
Hey thats still ok, you have a right to your opinion.

 

[fullerboy1]

Every quarterback in college football does worse against good defenses. They all pad their stats against the poor defenses of the world. That's not a surprise. If you're surprised by that fact, you should go ahead and watch about three more years of college football before you start arguing about it.

This study was started, and solely intended to give an apples-to-apples comparison of Brady Quinn and Jamarcus Russell against top notch defenses.

Before we dig into what each quarterback did, let's take a look at the caliber of defense that these quarterbacks played this season, and this will help us to define the better defenses that each played.

Jamarcus Russell's Schedule (in points per game):
24.7, 19.6, 13.9, 33.3, 25.8, 13.5, 29.1, 28.3, 19.5, 18.0, 22.9, 18.4, 22.4
Total Average: 22.3 points per game

Brady Quinn's Schedule (in points per game):
16.8, 14.8, 14.6, 28.4, 26.9, 31.4, 17.9, 19.7, 30.5, 25.2, 27.9, 14.9, 13.5
Total Average: 21.7 points per game

Surprising? Not necessarily. I think everyone gives in a little bit to the mystique of the SEC defenses, and in general it is deserved, but the fact of the matter is that Notre Dame regularly faced some of the toughest defenses in college football during 2006. But, am I going to sit here and gripe about the difference between 22.3 points per game and 21.7 points per game? Heck no. Not significant.

Four of Notre Dame's opponents allowed less than 15 points per game. Only 12 D1-A teams allowed less than 15 points per game, and Notre Dame played 4 of them. Jamarcus Russell and LSU only played 2 of them.

Now, Notre Dame played 3 teams that allowed between 15 and 20 points per game, where LSU played 4 such teams...and Notre Dame had the privelege of playing 6 teams that allowed over 25 points per game, where Jamarcus Russell and LSU only played 4 such teams.

So what do we do with all this data? Well I don't know about you guys but I'm personally not interested in the 6 games Notre Dame played against defenses that allow 25+ points per game, or the 4 games LSU played against such porous defenses. I think we can all agree on that.

My humble suggestion, and indeed what I originally did, was to look at how these guys did against teams that allowed less than 20 points per game. For Brady Quinn, this included Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, Navy, UCLA, USC and LSU. For Jamarcus Russell, this included Arizona, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, and Arkansas.

Now, I *could* go down to 15 points per game, which I would really define as an "elite" defense...but I don't know if that would be a good measure just because while this would involve a good 4 games for Notre Dame, it would only be 2 games for LSU. More on that later. For now, let's stick to defenses that allowed under 20 points per game.

Jamarcus Russell vs. Arizona, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama and Arkansas
113 of 175 (64.6%), 1357 yards (7.8 ypa), 11 TDs (6.3%), 7 INTs (4.0%). 92.5 QBR

Jamarcus Russell vs. Everyone Else
119 of 167 (71.3%), 1772 yards (10.6 ypa), 17 TDs (10.2%), 1 INTs (0.6%). 137.1 QBR

Brady Quinn vs. Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, Navy, UCLA, USC and LSU
154 of 272 (56.6%), 1788 yards (6.6 ypa), 16 TDs (5.9%), 5 INTs (1.8%). 88.6 QBR

Brady Quinn vs. Everyone Else
135 of 195 (69.2%), 1638 yards (8.4 ypa), 21 TDs (10.8%), 2 INTs (1.0%). 126.4 QBR

So basically, Jamarcus Russell had a better quarterback rating against the good defenses. But, well to keep in mind, he had a better quarterback rating period, as evidenced by his performing better against the bad defenses.

I believe the point to note here, is that the disparity is VERY similar, between the two quarterbacks. Jamarcus Russell goes from a 137.1 rating to a 92.5 rating when he faces a good defense. Brady Quinn goes from a 126.4 rating to an 88.6 rating. It is really strikingly similar, between them.

So what about points scored? What I mean to say is, it is possible for a quarterback to rack up a few stats during a game but have the offense be generally very ineffective...and indeed this is I'm sure what people that do not like Brady Quinn would say.

Jamarcus Russell's offense scored 24.2 points per game against these good defenses. The defenses allowed on average 17.2 points per game.

Brady Quinn's offense scored 24.6 points per game against these good defenses. The defenses allowed on average 16.0 points per game.


Translation: Brady Quinn had a QB Rating of 88.6 and his offense scored 24.6 points per game, against 7 defenses that averaged 16.0 points allowed per game. Jamarcus Russell had a QB Rating of 92.5 and his offense scored 24.2 points per game, against 6 defenses that averaged 17.2 points allowed per game.


Now, there seem to be a lot of strong feelings going on about Brady Quinn and Jamarcus Russell. There's a lot of anti-Quinn sentiment and I really don't expect anything I say here to sway them because, let's be honest, Jesus could come down from the clouds and appear to us all and say he has annointed Brady Quinn to be the best quarterback in the history of the world, and most of the people that don't like Quinn would probably accuse Jesus of being just another biased Notre Dame fan.

That's fine. But I'll go a little further anyway.

I mentioned the "elite" defenses before...those defenses that allowed less than 15 points per game. There are 6 teams that Quinn and Russell played against, that fit the bill. These are LSU, Florida, Auburn, Michigan, Penn State, and USC.

Do a study involving these two quarterbacks going up against these six defenses, and the whole "Brady Quinn sucks against good defenses" criticism should really just go away. At least, compared to Jamarcus Russell it should.

Quinn vs. "The Elite"
86 of 154, 943 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs :: 77.9 QB Rating, 25.0 Points Per Game

Russell vs. "The Elite"
44 of 76, 497 yards, 1 TDs, 3 INTs :: 65.5 QB Rating, 6.5 Points Per Game


Of course I know I'm going to hear the same old stuff over and over again. Stats be damned, stats be damned. Burn the books, break the glasses.

Whatever. This is just collected evidence. The FACT of the matter is that I just do not understand how Brady Quinn gets criticized for doing poorly against Michigan and LSU while Jamarcus Russell gets off the hook for his poor performances against Florida and Auburn.

Why? Is it because people think Notre Dame actually had a better surrounding cast? Really? Jeff Samardzija, Rhema McKnight and John Carlson vs. Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis, and Early Doucet? I don't think so. No way. Any scout would take the LSU cast over and over again before they take the Notre Dame crew.

What about Darius Walker vs. Justin Vincent and Alley Broussard? Again, I take Vincent and Broussard, though this one is close.

What about the Notre Dame offensive line vs. the LSU offensive line? Again, advantage LSU. I take Will Arnold, Herman Johnson, Brett Helms, Brian Johnson, and Peter Dyakowski...over Ryan Harris, Bob Morton, John Sullivan, Dan Santucci, and Sam Young. This one is a little tough, but the LSU offensive line has a much better record against the tougher defensive lines where the Notre Dame offensive line leaked like a sieve.

So, Brady Quinn scored more points against better defenses and had a better QB rating against elite defenses. Jamarcus Russell did better against good defenses and poor defenses.

So, at least for now in relation to Jamarcus Russell, I hope people realize that Brady Quinn did better against the best defenses.

Thanks CK I really enjoy the draft Gurus posts.:D

 

[Da 'Fins]

I posted this in VIP and will do so here - just to offer a contrarian viewpoint as far as the heaping of praise on this particular post:

Sorry to rain on everyone's parade.

I certainly appreciate CK's work in general and sometimes agree and disagree. Furthermore, I am in agreement that Brady Quinn is a better QB prospect than Jamarcus Russell (at least at this point). I've loved Quinn as a QB for two years.

However, I don't think this analysis was "objective." Not that CK himself was not trying to be objective, but this was not an "apples" to "apples" comparison. If all teams played the same schedule - one might be able to be more objective with respect to statistics. However, the problem is that these teams were all different and played in different conferences, with vastly different schedules. These stats really don't tell us much as they are far too limited (3 games). One could point to Troy Smith - look at what he did against mutual opponents that Quinn faced versus what he did against Florida. "Well, that's one game." Exactly. But, the "elite defenses" are only 3 games and they are all against different teams and at different stages in the season.

Even if these stats were accumulated against the same elite teams (Say, Auburn, FL and USC) the information would still not be valid as a statistical comparison. For example, Auburn's defense had one of the finest days as any defense in the NCAA's in the LSU game. It was a classic SEC war. However, Auburn's defense, while generally stellar most of the season, had games where they did not play nearly as well. If one did a full-blown statistical regression of how the Auburn defense faired against other SEC QB's, then how those QB's faired against other SEC defenses versus how Russell faired against those defenses, you'll find that Auburn's defense rose to the occasion more effectively against LSU than it did against other opponents - from a statistical viewpoint.

My main point is, that CK's statistical comparison is essentially flawed and as such it cannot yield any valid conclusions. Ultimately, a true statistician would have to argue that this evidence anecdotal. The conclusions may or may not be valid but there's no way to draw any objective data from this limited analysis.

Russell may ultimately be a better player than Quinn. But, there are question-marks with respect to his decision making abilities and how he reads defensive coverages - based on film study. These "question-marks" are more pronounced in Russell than they are in Quinn, imo. It is that evidence that makes Quinn, for my money, the safer bet as to who would be a better NFL QB.

Addendum (Not in the VIP forum post): I also think it's a flaw to say that Quinn did not play against good competition or that he should be denigrated because of the competition he played against.

 

[ckparrothead]

I REALLY expect C-Pep to be dealt for a pick(s) on draft day...I just got a gut feeling. Your Thoughts???

I wouldn't expect it, but it wouldn't surprise me either. I think his trade value is down in the dumps to where if we asked for even a 7th I doubt we get it, everyone expecting a release once we secure Trent Green.