Rumor - Grier And McDaniel On The Hot Seat

[eMCee85]

This is where there has to be push back. I wish forums were more mixed because Dolphins fans need to hear actual criticism rather than just giving each other the good news.

Firstly, 9-8 is basically a .500 record and with a supposedly good QB and a Top-10 roster that ought to be about the absolute minimum imaginable, let alone an acceptable stat used in defense of this franchise.

For the love of God, the previous HC Brian Flores (who got fired mind you) achieved the same record with a less talented roster and with Tua missing 5.5 games with various injuries which is technically more time than he missed with concussions in McDaniel's first season (4.5).

The hallmark of the Flores teams lay in the fact they could only beat teams that had bad offenses and terrible QBs. Generally, Flores' teams suffocated those teams with aggressive defense and the Miami offense got away with doing very little. Recall the games against the various sub-par QBs: Gardner Minshew, Mac Jones, Cam Newton, Brandon Allen, Ian Book, Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor. We can probably include the rookie Justin Herbert in that list, too, since he was entirely ill-equipped to match Flores defense at the time. Heck, they even lost games to Jacoby Brissett and Carson Wentz.

Has the McDaniel era really been different? How many prolific teams have the Dolphins actually taken down? Sadly, it wasn't really the mailed-in effort of Vic Fangio either, surprisingly. The defense has been decent, even against the better QBs like Jalen Hurts and Pat Mahomes. They were good against Josh Allen in the final regular season game.

The problem was Mike McDaniel's offense failing to score. In a lot of cases, they couldn't even get first downs and posses the ball against good teams. And that's with this offense loaded with weaponry. In the "biggest win" this year it was Jason Sanders kicking 5 FGs and the defense forcing a fumble at the goal line that saved the day!

11 wins is fine, but again, it's a marginal improvement that only looks good if your expectation is .500 and you're not being critical.

Since the McDaniel era began, the team has historically struggled against most of the top teams in each division. They are 1-3 against Buffalo, 0-2 against KC, 1-1 against the LAC, 1-1 against Baltimore, 0-1 against Cincinnati, 0-1 against Tennessee, 0-1 against SF, 0-1 against GB, 0-1 against Philly, etc.

I'm sure we make excuses for each of those but at some point it's like, 'c'mon, what's wrong with us?'

Quite frankly, the losses have gotten uglier under McDaniel really. We've had more losses on big stages (which admittedly suggests the national media is at least paying attention). We had 2 big match-ups against Buffalo and lost them both. We had a Sunday Night game against the Chargers last year where we looked totally inept on offense. Tua was 3/17 at one point. We had a Sunday Night game in Philly we lost. We had widely-advertised match-ups against the Ravens and Chiefs. We lost both games. We had a Monday Night game against the Titans. We lost. We had a Play-off game and we lost it looking pretty lousy on offense.

So congrats, the team has found a way to draw attention but not to capitalize on it like the Lions, Packers and Texans did this season with big wins in the regular season and in the Playoffs, too!

The most impressive looking wins under McDaniel came last year but most of those teams were better this year (e.g. Baltimore, Detroit). We lost to Baltimore this year and probably would've lost to Detroit had we played them, IDK. We barely beat Dallas who didn't play all that well.

You have to be critical of the Dolphins or else you're just not being fair. Miami is a decent team but they failed to deliver after attracting a bunch of attention with splashy offseason moves and a media-friendly HC.

What you have is a team that reporters and analysts are obviously more interested in now compared with how things looked 2 years ago but that doesn't mean it's really a good team.

Great post!

 

[eMCee85]

The truth is that fans are not equipped to separate where Ross, Grier, Tannenbaum, Flores or McDaniel operate independently.

Any fan who thinks they know is lying to themselves saying things like, 'this move was Flores' or 'that move was Tannenbaum.' As fans, we simply don't know the truth. No offense but getting older gives you the perspective to sit back and see it as part of a longer storyline.

In the end, fans trying to sort out who to blame ends up being a way to blame the past guy and provide hope that the current guy is actually now free to steer us towards our true destiny of being that great team we should be. But that's just imagination.

For instance, conventional thinking is that the 'impulsive Mike Tannenbaum' was responsible for splashy moves like the signing of Ndamukong Suh for $114M. But has Chris Grier not done the same with guys like Byron Jones (the top DB in 2020 who cost us $82M)? What about Bradley Chubb who we traded a R1 pick for and signed to a $110M deal? Or what about Tyreek Hill who we signed to a $120M deal after giving up picks in R1, R2, as well as a couple in R4? Those are as splashy as it gets!

If we're attributing stuff to Mike Tannenbaum, does he deserve credit for the good picks during his tenure like Laremy Tunsil & Xavien Howard in 2016? What about Minkah Fitzpatrick in 2018? Those are commonly cited draft selections offered in defense of Chris Grier hitting on reasonable talent at the top end of the draft. Without those names, Grier's drafting and team-building looks a lot more shaky and often downright impulsive.



What I see in Chris Grier's tenure from 2019 to now is the same type of behavior we had back in the "Tannenbaum era." We plug holes in the draft impulsively. We occasionally gamble with head-scratchers. We routinely trade away high picks (actually something Grier does more than Tannenbaum). We establish some new big-money deal almost every off-season as if we're that player away from being where we want to be.

The fact is that since Tannenbaum left we have gotten better at trading away draft assets. Meanwhile, we've quietly become a franchise more constrained by the owner's will than ever. The owner tampered and cost us picks. The owner has run afoul of players. The owner thought things could be "fixed" with a complete rebuild / tank. Is that really how the NFL works? Do you not need to hit on picks regardless of where you're at in the draft? Does more picks mean more assets to trade away? Do you not need strong-willed people in positions of power to demand the owner sit back and let football people run the show? Do we actually just have an owner who's promoted a GM who's willing to act in accordance with the Owner's will so long as he's rendered blameless?



What I've seen is a team that makes splashy moves, signs flashy players when in need of a mood-lifting promotion, trades away draft picks, tampers behind the scenes, runs afoul of any coach with experience or vision...

...I'm not the only one beginning to notice what the Dolphins have turned into since 2019. You think they're about to turn the corner. Perhaps they are? But there's also a very compelling case that Grier is a continuation of a longer trend that is part of why the Dolphins don't rise to the level of the elite teams. They don't draft well. They aren't stable year-to-year. They can't identify talent consistently enough to build something with an identity and culture.

Truth is, the Dolphins are the team that trades for and sign other people's draft hits. The Dolphins are a team that has ended up with a GM who hasn't brought any obvious identity to the team in 5+ years on the job and a young HC who's in no position to demand more authority than he has--both of whom leave a lot of questions unanswered.



When you look around the NFL you find that the best teams are able to build rosters by drafting key players. You MUST draft that core. Miami's best players are mostly brought in from outside: DB Jalen Ramsey, LB David Long, DE Bradley Chubb, OT Terron Armstead, C Conner Williams, RB Raheem Mostert, WR Tyreek Hill.

Our best players in virtually every area are brought in. That's not how you build a culture. Teams like Baltimore, Cincinnati, Buffalo and KC have been much better at finding core players in the draft. Every one of those 4 teams has also found a QB in the draft who the market seems to have determined is more valuable than ours.

Every one of those teams has rising stars they've acquired through good drafting. That's how you create value--not by spending money and trading picks. That's just cashing in one asset for another. And when those teams do go to FA they're one step ahead of the competition because they're doing it selectively. Look at how KC gave away a WR (they had drafted) and fixed their OL instead which led to a team that got better over the course of the season.

Amen!! Man I like you! What's your name!? (Donkey, Shrek!)

 

[Mello Yello]

I see your point in theory. I disagree within reality. As an investor, there are always arguments about what is the 'best' investment. If my stock triples in a year and another quadruples, is that really NOT a 'hit?' And, just as that is true of every investor, it is true for 31 other teams. In every draft there are multiple picks in which a 'better' player was available. Look no further than complaints in the 31 other fora. Even multiple teams passing on a 'better' player in the same year/same round. Hindsight does that. And, yes, there are always fans arguing, correctly, they wanted the better player. But, if multiple teams (and 'experts' who rank players) pass on the 'better' player (e.g., Mahomes), can any one team be called out for it or is it the messiness of judging talent. After all, KC didn't think he was good enough to move up to get. They were willing to gamble.
Every year there are low R1 picks who surprise and high R1 picks who disappoint. Yes, teams could have drafted a better talent, but that doesn't carry with it the quilt of incompetence as much as the messiness of human valuations.

It's a bit more like getting a 2% raise when inflation is 3%.

It's like, 'congrats on the promotion, buddy, but you still lost ground.'

At the end of the day, you still have to out-draft the competition.

 

[Mello Yello]

You forgot the Lions and Titans when naming teams that find core players through the draft.

Yeah, I purposefully avoided NFC teams like the Lions and 49ers but it's true. There are several out there.

In the end, evaluating a GM is about determining how much value he's created, not how much talent is on the roster due to trades & spending.

Even the Rams have been deadly in the mid-rounds with WRs like Cooper Cupp (R3) and Puka Nacua (R5) being some of their most productive weapons. KC went even further finding Hall-of-Famers in Travis Kelce (R3) and Tyreek Hill (R5) around the same area. Cincinnati dominated R2 finding Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd who can become unstoppable when paired with Burrow and Chase.

And that's not getting into the defensive hits around the league which start with names like Aaron Donald (R1), Chris Jones (R2) and Justin Madubuike (R3).

Basically, it's taking us trades & big contracts to offset bad drafting and when we do find prospects that work, we're spending R1 picks to get the production the best teams get from R3 guys.

We're not bad. Far from it. We're just not good enough to really challenge the best.

 

[andyahs]

Amen!! Man I like you! What's your name!? (Donkey, Shrek!)

Not surprised.

 

[eMCee85]

Not surprised.

Not surprised that your not surprised! Lol

 

[Highzenga]

Most of those players were top-40 picks in the draft: Tua, Waddle, Jackson, Wilkins, Hunt, Phillips and Holland. Several of those were top-20 and quite honestly, some of those "hits" are debatable due to the others available at the same position.

Keep in mind that when it comes to finding value in the draft it's not a "hit" if it doesn't create value relative to the alternative options that other teams are taking alongside you. You have to out-perform the competition.

A few examples of applying just a bit of scrutiny...

#1
You were either getting Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert at #5 if you were dead set on a QB. How much of a "hit" was Tua considering he's been pretty much the guy we imagined him to be along with the fact that the alternative has also been productive? If we had selected the other guy would we not be able to adequately defend that choice just as easily? Heck, the next two QBs were Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts who've both gone to and won Playoff games.

Again, it's not about whether you drafted a starter but whether you drafted better than the alternatives who went to the competition.

#2
You weren't doing worse than Jaylen Waddle with that pick given the alternatives were Devonta Smith, Ja'marr Chase, Kyle Pitts and Penei Sewell. All have produced as well or in some cases better. The best WR is probably Chase and the best addition in hindsight probably would've been Sewell.

#3
The alternative to DT Christian Wilkins was either DT Dexter Lawrence or DT Jeffry Simmons who both went immediately after Wilkins. The three literally went at #13, #17 and #19, respectively. Both of those other guys have been just as good if not better. Most football fans would say the two most elite guys of the three are Simmons and Lawrence who are both larger threats as disruptive interior players.

#4
The alternative to S Minkah Fitzpatrick was probably CB Jaire Alexander who might've been a better addition strategically considering he was a dedicated outside guy compared with a "versatile" slot/S. Of course, you'll overlook that as 2018.



All of that illustrates why you can't just list the picks that you made in the Top-20 because the alternatives were probably also good players. "Hits" from inside the Top-20 inflate your sense of how good your drafting really is.

Quite honeslty, Raekwon and Eichenberg aren't anything special based on the last few years. And as much as we like him, Achane is a RB and those aren't long-term additions. They're typically around for 1 contract and aren't hard to find in the mid rounds: Ajayi (R5), Drake (R3), Achane (R3).



Point being, the players who've brought definite value above expectation in the draft are the guys between R2-R5 who were way better than the alternative options. That includes Robert Hunt, Jevon Holland and Andrew Van Ginkel...

...and now consider that Hunt and Van Ginkel are both probably signing elsewhere this offseason.


So you have to ask yourself, how well does my argument actually hold up to scrutiny?

How many guys that we drafted have been busts in “top 40” picks over the past 35 years? I think you are overthinking things. We have consistently been drafting better than the league average over the past 5 drafts. Our 2021 draft is what wins championships. That is as good as it gets. What are your expectations?

 

[39wildman]

By this metric alone, McD has been successful. 9 wins in 2022 and 11 wins in 2023. That seems like continuous progress to me, and certainly not clueless behavior.

You are definitely being too hard on him.

Nothing wrong with wanting more, but looking at what you stated was most important, he is doing a pretty good job for us.

He took over a 9-8 and 10-6 team before he got here also. I do not think they are on hot seat because dolphins are still winning.

 

[Mello Yello]

How many guys that we drafted have been busts in “top 40” picks over the past 35 years? I think you are overthinking things. We have consistently been drafting better than the league average over the past 5 drafts. Our 2021 draft is what wins championships. That is as good as it gets. What are your expectations?

You need to expand your view. We have no doubt the Dolphins can identify solid defensive prospects.

We've seen it with Howard, Minkah, Holland, Kohou, Baker, Van Ginkel, Wilkins, Phillips, etc.

They've been able to bring in solid pieces in trade and free agency as well: Elliott, Long, Seiler, Chubb, etc.

Drafting for defense has been solid since Jeff Ireland was around. We have many of the same scouts so it makes sense we continue to find solid, reliable players. We tend to default to a lot of big programs anyhow which I think keeps us pretty safe: Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Texas, Miami, etc. A few R1 picks combined with quality DCs like Brian Flores and Vic Fangio running your defenses you ought to be pretty respectable which we've been.


The '21 draft still emphasized the same problems we've continuously seen though--namely OL.

> You drafted Jaylen Waddle when you could've had one of the NFL's best Tackles in Penei Sewell.
> You drafted Jevon Holland when you could've had Landon Dickerson (2x Pro Bowl Center for the Eagles).
> You drafted Liam Eichenberg when you could've had Creed Humphrey (2x Pro Bowl & 2nd team All-Pro Center for the Chiefs).


At some point you have to start hitting on more offensive linemen. Note how the Lions were on the doorstep of the Super Bowl and how the Eagles and Chiefs have actually been there with those OL they took. It matters.

And you can't be citing a WR you picked in the Top-10 as great value. That's a huge indulgence for a team that needed more interior players. Fact is, they had to draft a WR in the Top-10 largely because of all the previous failures they had on the roster at the time, many of whom were players they drafted in the years immediately prior.

May I present our 2020 roster:



Preston Williams was another name continuously being given chances to start.

In fact, to further emphasize that issue they actually took TE Hunter Long in R3 of that very 2021 Draft and (not surprisingly) he ended up doing nothing. He's had 1 catch for 8 yards in his 3-yr NFL career.

You can't continuously fail at OL and bust that hard in the mid-rounds and sit there thinking that level of drafting, 'is what wins championships.'

You compare Miami's drafting to that of the worst teams. That's great if you want to be a team that wins somewhere between 7-11 games every season leading to an appearance on the road in Wildcard Weekend.

If you actually want to talk "championships" you have to face reality and ask for a level of drafting that we've never seen before. The problem is we're already behind when it comes to picks:



We don't have a pick in R3 or R4 and our highest is at #21 so we can't so easily find an elite talent like Jaylen Waddle to stick in somewhere.

Maybe Grier can step up but he's got to do more than good players in the Top-40. And unfortunately he's now set himself up with very little to actually work with.

 

[Bob512]

He took over a 9-8 and 10-6 team before he got here also. I do not think they are on hot seat because dolphins are still winning.

Good point......although I thought that 9-8 record for McD in 2022 was pretty good considering what we had going on at QB. With Tua out, you had Bridgewater and Thompson starting games with Thompson getting the bulk of the playing time.

 

[Mello Yello]

Good point......although I thought that 9-8 record for McD in 2022 was pretty good considering what we had going on at QB. With Tua out, you had Bridgewater and Thompson starting games with Thompson getting the bulk of the playing time.

As I pointed out earlier, Tua missed more regular season time in 2021 under Flores (5.5 games due to ribs & thumb) than he did in 2022 under McDaniel (4.5 games due to concussions).

Don't forget that Tua was earning the label of "injury-prone" long before the concussions ever became a thing.

And the backup under Flores was Jacoby Brissett who brought nothing beyond what Bridgewater or Thompson did. Brissett's rating was 78 to Bridgewater's 85.

To be blunt, the idea that McDaniel has been more hamstrung doesn't hold up at all. In fact, McDaniel's rosters have been far better top-to-bottom as they've featured a bunch more draft picks, trades and FAs the Flores teams never had. Moreover, McDaniel has had a Tua Tagovailoa with more experience in the league as well.

Excuses should not be getting made for Mike McDaniel. We can defend him using good faith arguments like (a) Tua's sudden rise in productivity (B) the offensive ranking and (C) his hiring quality coaches. Those all represent upgrades over Flores. There's plenty of good stuff. No need to make excuses to try and hide the uncomfortable realities that he also has a few short-comings, most of which seem tied to his being inexperienced.


Returning to the original point though, Flores' teams basically had the same record(s) as McDaniel's teams have and it's hard to ignore the fact that Flores had less talent to work with. It's not hard to argue that we really have yet to get "better" under McDaniel in terms of wins and losses.

I need only quote what I said 2 pages ago.

...since the McDaniel era began, the team has historically struggled against most of the top teams in each division. They are:

1-3 against Buffalo
0-2 against KC
1-1 against LAC
1-1 against Baltimore
0-1 against Cincinnati
0-1 against Tennessee
0-1 against SF
0-1 against GB
0-1 against Philly

They also tend to lose a lot of big games and turn in some absolutely awful performances in Primetime that really damage the teams overall reputation. Not only did they lay an egg on SNF against the Chargers but they lost to the Eagles on SNF and embarrassed themselves losing to Tennessee on MNF as well.

Fact is, they were 1 Noah Igbinoghene highlight from losing to the lowly Steelers on MNF, too. They have a habit of coming up more than short in Primetime. I don't need to remind you how inept the offense looked against KC in the Playoffs.

 

[Bob512]

As I pointed out earlier, Tua missed more regular season time in 2021 under Flores (5.5 games due to ribs & thumb) than he did in 2022 under McDaniel (4.5 games due to concussions).

And the backup under Flores was Jacoby Brissett who brought nothing beyond what Bridgewater or Thompson did.

To be blunt, the idea that McDaniel has been more hamstrung doesn't hold up at all. In fact, McDaniel's rosters have been far better top-to-bottom as they've featured a bunch more draft picks, trades and FAs the Flores teams never had. Moreover, McDaniel has had a Tua Tagovailoa with more experience in the league as well.

Excuses should not be getting made for Mike McDaniel. We can defend him using good faith arguments like (a) Tua's sudden rise in productivity (B) the offensive ranking and (C) his hiring quality coaches. Those all represent upgrades over Flores. There's plenty of good stuff. No need to make excuses to try and hide the uncomfortable realities that he also has a few short-comings, most of which seem tied to his being inexperienced.


Returning to the original point though, Flores' teams basically had the same record(s) as McDaniel's teams have and it's hard to ignore the fact that Flores had less talent to work with. It's not hard to argue that we really have yet to get "better" under McDaniel in terms of wins and losses.

I need only quote what I said 2 pages ago.

...since the McDaniel era began, the team has historically struggled against most of the top teams in each division. They are:

1-3 against Buffalo
0-2 against KC
1-1 against LAC
1-1 against Baltimore
0-1 against Cincinnati
0-1 against Tennessee
0-1 against SF
0-1 against GB
0-1 against Philly

Slow down hoss, I was responding to Wildman39, not you and I have no idea what you posted two pages ago.

 

[Mello Yello]

Slow down hoss, I was responding to Wildman39, not you and I have no idea what you posted two pages ago.

If you're looking for a private conversation you need to use the DMs.

Personally, I don't think you want to accept the reality of where this team is at. You can try to shut the door on that but it's not healthy.

 

[39wildman]

Good point......although I thought that 9-8 record for McD in 2022 was pretty good considering what we had going on at QB. With Tua out, you had Bridgewater and Thompson starting games with Thompson getting the bulk of the playing time.

Winning keep jobs in nfl. Right now Grier and McD are safe.

 

[GatorFin73]

Well Mello Yello, you are wise beyond your years not to mention the name of a mountain dew like pop I used to love as a kid. Appreciate the time and effort you put into all these recent posts.

Everything you are saying is correct, sum it all up and that's why the rebuild has failed to date. We probably didn't need a rebuild to contend for just the last wildcard spot. The few good moves we did do got us to that point but that's not what anyone wants besides the few who just cheer whatever move we are ever making, excuse everything else and attack other posters for pointing out the obvious.

I like Tua, I like McD, but results are results. We all hate Flores for many reasons now but he had 10 wins in 2020, we lost out on the 7th seed due to a tie breaker. McD get's 9 wins first year and we win a tie breaker and now it's well he made the playoffs, that's proof of improvement. I've been disappointed as we have basically been the same team just moving around strengths and weaknesses. Last 4 years we have won 10, 9, 9 and 11 games. That is essentially the same team and yet we have now had one of the top WR's in the game the last two seasons not to mention more mature 1st round talent (Waddle/Phillips/Holland) and a trade for another 1st round pass rusher (Chubb).

Facts are we blew a rare opportunity last year when Buffalo only won 11 games, they had won 13 two of the three years prior to that with the one exception also being 11 wins. Our high point is their low point. The rebuild hasn't even gotten us to the top of our 4-team division.

You've posted a bunch of our moves in recent history, shown where poor and/or questionable relative to the opportunity cost and can't argue with pretty much any of that besides some semantics here and there. The issue now though is where do we go from here? Is the rebuild going to be a total failure or is there something that can be salvaged?

You allude to it but we absolutely need to draft extremely well here this year with limited picks, we also need to make hard decisions with the current roster given our cap issues. An awful lot of right moves need to be made right now and heading into '25 to give us a real shot over the next two years.

We have playmakers and we have speed on offense at both RB and WR. We hopefully at minimum have a competent QB to play point guard and distribute the rock in a system that caters to his strengths. Besides an all-pro TE the one thing we do not have and have not had is strong OL.

IMO, we do not have the cap and draft resources to get everything done in '24, especially if we do make some quality hard decisions and let a few guys walk we don't want to see go, for the health of the cap and future comp picks. What we can maybe do with what we have this year is build this offensive line up and add another playmaker in the pass game so we are not so one dimensional. Get this offense to true elite status in '24 and we can compete even with a middle of the pack or worse defense. Given the injuries at Edge, new coordinator and scheme, holes at every level and lack of resources we'll likely be waiting for '25 for a chance to have both sides of the ball put together again.

But fail to take the offense to the next level, and that means a line that can hang with the big boys down the stretch when games mean the most and conditions are the worst, well, this team is not going anywhere, next year or '25 and at that point the rebuild will officially be dead and retired, a case study for other teams to avoid making the same mistakes.

Here's hoping for an awful lot of good decisions from Tua (early extension or not), Wilkins/Hunt/Gink/Williams/Baker (let walk or not), Tyreek/Chubb and others (restructure adding years for current cap space or not) and Grier (for the love of all that his holy, drafting like it's your job on the line and getting things very much right, or not).