The Fall of the Patriots

Discussion in 'Beasts of the AFC East' started by The Goat, Mar 17, 2014.

  1. The Goat

    The Goat Escape Goat

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    Yes, I know. "Every off-season, everyone talks abut how the Dolphins are gonna compete with the Patriots, and we never do...blah, blah, blah." Well, here's a slightly different take on this. It was inspired by the "Can the Dolphins compete with the Patriots and Broncos" thread, but I think it deserves a closer look. I did some digging on QB decline. If you want to look at where some of this info came from, it's here: http://forums.colts.com/topic/5234-the-decline-and-retirement-age-of-great-nfl-qbs/

    Those of you who are old enough to remember the 1998 season well might remember a game that Marino had against the Broncos in the playoffs. At the end of the game, Marino threw what was supposed to be a Hail Mary bomb downfield against the Broncos...only it went about 30 yards in a weak arc, and got picked off. There was a weird, awkward moment, when none of the announcers knew what to do or say. Because...Dan Marino didn't throw like that.

    Dan Marino was 37. And all of a sudden, it hit me.

    Holy crap. Dan Marino just got old.

    He hung around one more year, and was done. The Dolphins have never been the same.

    15 plus years later, the vaunted Patriots, with all of their genius, smart moves, villainy, and invincibility, are in a great deal of trouble without one specific person. That person isn't Bill Belichick. It's Tom Brady.

    And Tom Brady is getting old. He'll be 37 before the 2014 season starts. QBs in general start a notable decline in performance at age 35.

    Marino fell off at age 35. He was completely done by 38.
    Montana fell off drastically after age 34. He was completely done by 38.
    Troy Aikman fell off drastically at 34. He retired that year.
    Terry Bradshaw was done at 35, after an injury.
    Steve Young hung 'em up at 37.

    There are plenty more: Namath (34), Staubach (37), Fouts (35), Kelly (36), Greise (35)

    Here's a list of QB who had a "very good or better" QB season after age 35: Peyton (last year), Moon (39 - did not play in the NFL until age 28), Elway (37), Warner (37, did not play in the NFL until age 28), and Favre (40). That's all of the very good seasons by QBs over the age of 35. Ever.

    Tom Brady started falling off last year, and once the wheels come off, they do NOT go back on. Unless your name is Brett Favre - but that's a different discussion.

    Instead, the falloff escalates very, very quickly. I noticed it last year, when Brady started having problems with his accuracy on out and go routes. Then, in the playoffs against Denver, there was a moment. It was a moment similar to 1998 for Dolphins fans. Tom Brady missed a receiver at the end of the first half. And it wasn't close. It was a who the heck threw THAT ball? moment. And then there it was...that awkward silence, when none of the announcers really knew what to say.

    And up in New England, millions of Patriots fans realized it. Holy crap. Tom Brady just got old.

    And much like the Dolphins in 1999, the Patriots aren't ready. Their current backup is a thoroughly immobile QB who has as many interceptions as completions in the NFL.

    The fall is coming.
     
  2. Phinatic8u

    Phinatic8u Adam ****ing Gase

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    Tom Brady has gotten better in his older years.

    Don't see the comparison.
     
  3. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth inside my DNA Finheaven VIP

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    I think he's pointing out that eventually age will catch up to him and his body will not be able to do what his mind wants it to do.
     
  4. raving

    raving Starter

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    First of all I totally appreciate the thread - and I agree MOSTLY.

    Here's where I differ: It has been and always will be the Miami Dolphins job to escort that guy out of the NFL forever! I thought that maybe Jason Taylor would break him - then I thought Wake would do it - but until its done its not done... So do not expect him to leave without a Dolphin player planting him into the dirt and the whole stadium takes a gasp as we all patiently wait for the cart to come on the field and scoop him up and get him out of our collective misery.

    2. You left Jim Plunkett off that list!


     
  5. NY8123

    NY8123 Sophisticated Redneck Administrator Finheaven VIP

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    You can't out run time, the Pats moves suggest they know this as well. They, like Denver, know that clock is short. It might be one year or maybe two but it is going to happen, Brady and Manning will decline into a shadow of their former selves.

    I feel that both of these QB's want to be like Elway and win and retire on top. Neither of these guys want to go out with a losing season or being bounced from the playoffs, if I had to stake money however on which QB has the better shot at winning a Super Bowl and riding off, I'd bet Brady even though I can't stand the guy. He has just be healthier and hasn't taken the amount of abuse Manning has. Marino wasn't the same after his achilles injury and even he himself has gone on record and said that.

    I hope Brady declines this season but to be honest I'd rather Miami beat the man when he was playing at his best if they can manage it, no body wants to win just because someone has to by default.
     
  6. MARINO1384

    MARINO1384 Pro Bowler

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    Watch his games last year and you'll be know why this is dead wrong. He was great around 30ish but watch his games last year. Sure he didn't have great receivers but some of those balls he threw were just straight off. Passes that Brady used to make in his sleep were completely overthrown. He had a very average season this year and I don't think he'll get any better. A body can only handle so much before it starts giving up. There's a reason why players don't play into their 40's. I don't expect Brady to be awful but his days of being a top 5 qb are far over with.
     
  7. Namor

    Namor Pro Bowler Finheaven VIP

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    Yep...just like Peyton..injuries and age have cost him his deep ball....Seahawks showed ..just stop those crossing routes......

    Father Time is undefeated.
     
  8. kellyh3034

    kellyh3034 Scout Team

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    Yes. I agree he's getting old. But in today's NFL, he can survive a little longer. But I've saying it longer than last year that Brady has lost some skills. Or sure. He can give you a wonderful game every once in awhile but he will stink up the joint more. Happens to everyone.
     
  9. spiketex

    spiketex Kiko Alonso - El Bravo 47 the yappy chihuahua Super Donator Donator

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    Hope that you're right. Brady still looked pretty good in many games last year. We were on top all over the field in the Foxboro game until he took control in the 3rd quarter when some decisions went their way. His leadership skills are still pretty amazing. BTW, you know he still expects to still be playing in 5 years time. (He doesn't joke).
     
  10. The Goat

    The Goat Escape Goat

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    The point is that 35 is the wall for QBs.

    Last year, Brady was 36. If you did not see that he was considerably off last year, you were not paying attention.
     
  11. BahamaFinFan78

    BahamaFinFan78 A True Fan

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    Unless he's Brett Favre?
    Unless he gets hopped up on steroids? The league will never punish him.
     
  12. NY8123

    NY8123 Sophisticated Redneck Administrator Finheaven VIP

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    Hell dude, I haven't even injured my shoulder and if I throw a baseball at 40 now my arm feels like it is going to fall off lol. As a catcher/outfielder I had a damn good arm too, not anymore!
     
  13. Yessir

    Yessir Dolfan for Life Donator

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    The Fall of the Patriots won't happen anytime soon, and I'll give you a few reasons why.

    Ryan Tannehill, Geno Smith, and E.J. Manuel. Those are the other three quarterbacks in his division.
     
  14. Namor

    Namor Pro Bowler Finheaven VIP

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    F.... that....I hope his arm falls off and we beat him to death with it.
     
  15. DolfanISS

    DolfanISS Perennial All-Pro

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    True but the Pats look to be all in this year. If they get a motivated Britt and he can learn to play with Brady (many a vet has struggled) that would be another great piece for them. I really thought we would have closed the gap last year and that was looking pretty good in week 15 but unfortunately for us weeks 16 and 17 happened which filled me with questions again. I went from feeling really confident about the fins to pretty much how I felt coming into 2013 after those Bills, Jets games.
     
  16. Ben Had

    Ben Had FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I belive Dion Jordan is gonna finish what JT tried to do.
     
  17. xXwarXx

    xXwarXx Banned Hammered

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    Brady might lose something, but he's not losing the best game day coach in the entire NFL, so unfortunately I don't see any pats fall anytime soon.

    Bellichek has showed over and over, he's always a step ahead of everyone else. The only thing IMO that has held him back from owning another 3-4 rings is his own arrogance. Could you imagine if they actually spent some $ in free agency? Or didn't trade down in drafts, amd drafted guys like clay Matthews when they had the chance?

    It's almost shameful that they had Hernandez and gronk on rookie contracts and didn't get a ring out of that.
     
  18. The Goat

    The Goat Escape Goat

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    I know he doesn't joke. Nobody thinks that Father Time will catch them. Until he does.

    I gave Brady two years. If he's still starting for the Patriots at age 39, they will not win the division. I will bet money on that.
     
  19. DolfanISS

    DolfanISS Perennial All-Pro

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    Those 4 QB's are terrible. Those 4 QB's are not getting it done.
     
  20. Mike13

    Mike13 I am a golden god

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    Time has a habit of kicking everyone in the balls.
     
  21. Namor

    Namor Pro Bowler Finheaven VIP

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    Dancing with the Stars???
     
  22. The Goat

    The Goat Escape Goat

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    First, that's not four.

    Second, Brady is in his late 30s. All of those QBs are in their mid 20s. That's kinda the point.
     
  23. Tureo

    Tureo Seasoned Veteran

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    It's all about if one of the teams in the division are able to find a QB before the Pats are able to find Brady's replacement.
     
  24. The Goat

    The Goat Escape Goat

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    Funny...this EXACT thing happened to me. I used to be able to touch 80 mph on a JUGS gun with a fastball; not as an organized sport guy, but just as someone who was blessed with a live arm.

    I hit 40, and all of a sudden I just lost 15 mph. No idea where it went. Just...gone. The strength is still there, but the quickness? Nope.
     
  25. utahphinsfan

    utahphinsfan Puck Fitzburgh

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    That's what I was thinking also.

    p.s. Hopefully, no one watched last nights family guy.
     
  26. xXwarXx

    xXwarXx Banned Hammered

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    I don't want Brady to get old and set off in the sun..

    I want my last memory of him on a football field to be cam wake standing over his mangled body. I want to see bellicheks eyes at that exact moment.
     
  27. uk_dolfan

    uk_dolfan Founder of the FH Adam Gase fan club Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    Revis brady and gronk...
    If thats a fall then sign me up please
     
  28. DeathStar

    DeathStar Hall Of Famer

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    This is what people are down to?

    They won the division going away...

    Come on now.
     
  29. The Goat

    The Goat Escape Goat

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    Again...it's about Brady.

    Quick...the year after they went 16-0, with an absolute juggernaut of a team, they lost Brady in the first game. What happened?

    Were the 2013 Patriots the equivalent of the 2007 Patriots?
     
  30. MARINO1384

    MARINO1384 Pro Bowler

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    Revis can't cover fast wr like Wallace and gets bodied by bigger receivers. A cornerback has no effect on the game if you throw it away from him. Brady is old and a shell of his former self. Gronk? Lol are they allowing players to play in full body cast? Guys made of glass.still the pats division to lose but they failed to bring in a big time wide receiver to help Brady,don't have a second tight end to play hernendez's role and lost their best runningback
     
  31. Wallace17Miami

    Wallace17Miami Banned Hammered

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    Terrible post - the NFL has changed over those years. YOu aren't allowed to hit qb's at all anymore. QB'S are going to be "falling" at later years in their career. Manning/Brady probably still have a few years of playing at a high level.
     
  32. Tureo

    Tureo Seasoned Veteran

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    And hopefully his replacement isn't Mallet. I would absolutely hate to see Mallet become a great QB since many here wanted us to draft him.
     
  33. DeathStar

    DeathStar Hall Of Famer

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    And the Jets with no offensive weapons and bad QB play got the same wins as us...

    Every year many folks here put on their homer glasses and every year for the past 10 years+ they are always wrong...

    Have some perspective.
     
  34. ITS!MATEO

    ITS!MATEO A True Fan

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    I'll believe it when I see it.. The Patriots are still the best team in the AFC East.
     
  35. tay0365

    tay0365 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I agree, this does not seem like the old Brady, he is missing receivers more often. Where in the past, once the ball left his hand, I cringed on who was about to hurt us, and how bad, now once the ball leave his hand, I watch to see if it was on mark, or can even be caught.
     
  36. The Goat

    The Goat Escape Goat

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    Staggeringly horrific post with a lack of reading comprehension.

    It doesn't have to do with getting hit. It has to do with reaction time slowing down.

    Unless NFL rule changes somehow slow down time, Brady's going to fall off badly within the next two years.
     
  37. tay0365

    tay0365 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Three up and coming young QBs in Brady's division is the reason Brady will not fall? :confused:.......OK:foundout:
     
  38. The Goat

    The Goat Escape Goat

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    Please point out the part in my OP where I said the Dolphins were going to catch them.

    For the reading comprehension fail, homer-bashing crowd:

    This was about the Patriots coming back to the pack, not everyone else getting better.
     
  39. BlueFin

    BlueFin Seer of Visions Finheaven VIP

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    Good thread and there is no doubt they begin to decline...it's not an exact science but it is inevitable.

    I for one don't believe Brady is better than ever or as good as he once was, Peyton as well, despite the gaudy numbers last year on a loaded football team. If the passing rules stay like they are there is no telling how gaudy passing numbers will get.

    You can see the decline in Peyton though, the arm is weaker than it was.

    Denver knows Peyton ' s window is small and they are going all in.

    If that team stays healthy and Peyton doesn't hit the wall they look hard to beat.
     
  40. jvw

    jvw Starter

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    I agree that Brady is losing it but he still has enough to beat most every team.... If Belicheat can get a strong Defense Brady has enough left to get the job done....looks like thats the route he's taking with the FA moves he made so far....Let's not forget, as poor as the Pats played in that Championship game they were right in it to the end, if they score that 2 pt conversion they would be down by 8 with 3 minutes left.....so the way I see it the Pats were a Gronkowski away from winning that game......one thing I learned about Brady's demise, I won't believe it until its over with.....
     

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