nyjunc said:
I'd be very afraid of that rotation if I was a Met fan. Glavine was very good this year but you cam't expect him to keep that up, Zito will be a nice addition but there will be a month or 2 where you scratch your head wondering what happened to him, little pedro is done and the NL SHOULD be alot stronger than a year ago.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/glavito02.shtml
Actually, I do expect Glavine to keep it up at least one more season. If you look at his stats over the last three years, he's basically been the same pitcher. Last year, he struck out a few more hitters, but he also gave up a few more home runs. That combination tells me that he's throwing more strikes, since hitters tend to make more home runs out of balls that are in the strike zone. In any event, his statistical profile shows no real signs of decline.
Now, obviously, he's not going to keep it up forever. At some point, he'll stop being a quality pitcher. But his stats suggest that point probably won't come in 2007.
This is going to sound odd, but Jason Schmidt's probably a better candidate for decline than Glavine. His K/9 IP rate is falling off a cliff. Check out these strikeout rates over the last 4 years:
2003 - 9.01
2004 - 10.04
2005 - 8.63
2006 - 7.51
For a power pitcher like Schmidt, that's a problem. He's never been a control artist, and at age 34, it's unlikely that he'll become one.
Glavine's NEVER been a strikeout pitcher, he's traditionally relied on good control, getting ground ball outs and striking out about 5 guys per 9 innings. That type of pitcher ages better than a power pitcher.
And I forgot about El Duque. It's good that the Mets are looking at so many options for the rotation; it looks like they might need it.