Vegas Views The Dolphins Somewhat Favorably For Next Year - What Does It Mean And Imply About The Team? | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Vegas Views The Dolphins Somewhat Favorably For Next Year - What Does It Mean And Imply About The Team?

phinsforlife

phinsforlife

Super Donator
Club Member
Joined
Dec 4, 2022
Messages
1,653
Reaction score
3,228
Age
47
Location
san diego
Vegas currently gives the Dolphins the 9th best odds of winning the Super Bowl next year. ESPN, 2nd link, has Miami ranked 6th in their power rankings. That is the good news. For clarification sake, these odds and rankings take into account what the pundits believe teams will do in the offseason.

The bad news is in both cases, Miami is behind Buffalo. One notch lower in ESPN, and 5 spots back in Vegas (9 vs 4). Even worse, +2000, vs +1200 for Buffalo. This means Vegas gives Miami about half the chance of winning the SB that they give to Buffalo. This is what really worries me.

There is a good argument to be made that Miami is the same or a slightly better regular season team than Buffalo, but not nearly the same post season team that Buffalo is. The ability to play outdoors, on the road, in the cold, which tends to happen. Then style of play, what the offense can do against better defenses in tougher conditions, the importance of the QB being able to be mobile and extend plays, etc.

There is a big difference between being a good regular season team that dominates at home, and being a good post season team that can win on the road and in bad weather. I think this is what Vegas is telling us. Hopefully the Dolphins realize this and start building the team in such a way that they are better structured to win in the post season.

BetMGM

sports.ma.betmgm.com sports.ma.betmgm.com

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...rankings-poll-2024-plus-offseason-three-words

1707849569686.png
 
Last edited:
Wow... that is some expectation/prediction without knowing who the players will be.

I can see an opinion based on a team that will look similar next season and has shown they belong ... The Dolphins do not fit in that scenario without knowing who will line up. :cheers:
 
That number on the 49ers is ghastly. I can't imagine taking that price. The Super Bowl loser is in a funk the following season. That is the recent trend and it makes a lot of sense. Simply demoralized, after expending so much energy yet falling short. It's the reason I threw out the Eagles this year.

I was hoping Kansas City would lose the Super Bowl, for exactly this reason. They will now surge in confidence toward 2024. The one recent season they did not make the Super Bowl was the year after they lost the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay. They lost 5 games despite having an excellent offense. Then the two tight playoff games against Buffalo and Cincinnati, losing the latter.

Kansas City's season win over/under will be interesting. If it's 11.5 again that will prompt my money on the over. Notice how they won 11 this time and were viewed as a shocking failure.
 
mwestberry said:
Wow... that is some expectation/prediction without knowing who the players will be.

I can see an opinion based on a team that will look similar next season and has shown they belong ... The Dolphins do not fit in that scenario without knowing who will line up. :cheers:
Click to expand...
The sportsbooks want money in the pool. As soon as possible. The odds are rip off in total. Huge margins. Just get money into the pool and it's big favoritism toward eventual earn.

This stuff is not sophisticated, other than the big picture aspect I described above. I have no idea why fans continue to believe that every betting pool or point spread is dictated by hyper fixation on personnel or specifics. Nobody cares. The All-22 garbage is a fan obsession not a wagering concern.

The season wins over/unders are another matter because they are based on game by game projected point spreads. That's why the books wait for the schedule to come out. At that point a spread is attached to each game, and the corresponding money line used for estimated win likelihood. A mathematical formula spits out the season win number. It has nothing to do with subjectivity, other than the juice might be shaded one way or the other based on public perception.
 
mwestberry said:
Wow... that is some expectation/prediction without knowing who the players will be.

I can see an opinion based on a team that will look similar next season and has shown they belong ... The Dolphins do not fit in that scenario without knowing who will line up. :cheers:
Click to expand...
not sure you read the OP. these predictions include best guesses of what the roster will look like. of course they will not be perfect, or right, which is why people bet. having said all of that, tough for me to believe there can be material changes to the dolphins roster to the positive in total (there will be additions and losses) given they are $50mm over the cap, the QB is not changing, and two of their better defenders (chubb and phillips) are hurt and won't help until later in the year.
 
phinsforlife said:
Vegas currently gives the Dolphins the 9th best odds of winning the Super Bowl next year. ESPN, 2nd link, has Miami ranked 6th in their power rankings. That is the good news. For clarification sake, these odds and rankings take into account what the pundits believe teams will do in the offseason.

The bad news is in both cases, Miami is behind Buffalo. One notch lower in ESPN, and 5 spots back in Vegas (9 vs 4). Even worse, +2000, vs +1200 for Buffalo. This means Vegas gives Miami about half the chance of winning the SB that they give to Buffalo. This is what really worries me.

There is a good argument to be made that Miami is the same or a slightly better regular season team than Buffalo, but not nearly the same post season team that Buffalo is. The ability to play outdoors, on the road, in the cold, which tends to happen. Then style of play, what the offense can do against better defenses in tougher conditions, the importance of the QB being able to be mobile and extend plays, etc.

There is a big difference between being a good regular season team that dominates at home, and being a good post season team that can win on the road and in bad weather. I think this is what Vegas is telling us. Hopefully the Dolphins realize this and start building the team in such a way that they are better structured to win in the post season.
Click to expand...
If you watched McDaniel's press conferences and some of Hard Knocks you could see that the Dolphins were really stressing playing their best football late in the year and in the playoffs in January, I think it might have been the reason so many players were scratched during the season even though they were questionable. They wanted to field their best possible team going into the post season, they talked about it a lot. In pure Dolphin fashion, they choked in the Titans game and then the injuries completely derailed the entire season.

I had big expectations this year and actually put money on them winning the Super Bowl before the season. I don't think that'll be happening for me next season, it feels like we could go 11-6 again but on the other hand 6-11 wouldn't be a shock.
 
lynx said:
If you watched McDaniel's press conferences and some of Hard Knocks you could see that the Dolphins were really stressing playing their best football late in the year and in the playoffs in January, I think it might have been the reason so many players were scratched during the season even though they were questionable. They wanted to field their best possible team going into the post season, they talked about it a lot. In pure Dolphin fashion, they choked in the Titans game and then the injuries completely derailed the entire season.

I had big expectations this year and actually put money on them winning the Super Bowl before the season. I don't think that'll be happening for me next season, it feels like we could go 11-6 again but on the other hand 6-11 wouldn't be a shock.
Click to expand...
Best not go 6 and 11 or its back to a rebuild
 
Many of us have had it the last 20 some odd years..I'll continue too have hope tho
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom