What a healthy Tannehill would do this year?

[tay0365]

I think that’s a little off. I think tannehill is good enough to win and mount comebacks but not elite (manning, Brady, etc)

Have you ever seen the great Brady when his O-line pass blocks as bad as Miami has for a while? Obviously you haven't.

In fact, I don't think Brady has ever won, with a team who's O-line was as bad as ours has...Tannehill has though.

Brady and Manning are special QBs that if given time will do amazing things, special QBs that few teams get a chance to draft, and comparing Tannehill to them is unfair, but be sure that if they had the same O-line issues as Tannehill, they would be just as effective or maybe less then Tannehill.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Well then by all means, show how this year's pass defense is as good as or better than last year's,

Passing yards per game allowed was higher last season. 242 vs 228
Passing TDs allowed per game is only slightly worse this season. 2 per game vs 1.875

 

[Bob512]

Well then by all means, show how this year's pass defense is as good as or better than last year's, and how that would translate to the 2017 team's being as good as or better than the 2016 team with only the addition of Tannehill. Best of luck.

When it was pointed out to you that last years team and this years team had similarly ranked passed defenses, you attributed to an easy schedule last year. No use in arguing when your mind is made up.......

 

[<O>]

When it was pointed out to you that last years team and this years team had similarly ranked passed defenses, you attributed to an easy schedule last year. No use in arguing when your mind is made up.......

What does a pass defense "rank" mean? Last year's pass defense surrendered an opposing passer rating of 88.5. This year's pass defense is surrendering one of 105.7.

As I've said many times, there have been 19 teams since 2004 that have surrendered a regular season opposing passer rating between 99 and 105. Those teams had an average record of 4-12, and all but one of them had a losing season.

The one team of the 19 with a winning season was the 2004 Packers, which had Brett Favre, finished 10-6, and were dispatched in the first round of the playoffs by the Vikings and Daunte Culpepper, to whom they surrendered a 137.1 passer rating in a 31-17 loss.

Compare that to the 2016 team's opponents' passer rating of 88.5, which is simply the league average, and which is associated with an 8-8 record on average.

In other words, the difference between the 2017 and 2016 pass defenses is associated with four expected regular season losses on average, in itself.

Now, consider the 0.92 correlation between passer rating differential and win percentage in the league since 2004, and consider that Tannehill's best passer rating for an extended period in 2016 was just above 100.

Now consider the passer rating differential that would equal if it were applied to the 2017 team -- 105.7 to 100. A passer rating differential of -5.7 is associated with an expected regular season record of 7-9.

Every 5.65 units of passer rating differential is associated with one win, in either direction.

Ryan Tannehill at his best extended 2016 level wasn't going to do anything noteworthy for this particular team, and nor could any other QB.

 

[Daytona Fin]

With Tannehill our time of possession would't be at the bottom of the league. Less opportunities for opposing offenses, different game plans all together and our defense wouldn't be worn down. Hard to compare last years stats with this years and come up with definitive results. This season is a wash imo.

 

[<O>]

With Tannehill our time of possession would't be at the bottom of the league. Less opportunities for opposing offenses, different game plans all together and our defense wouldn't be worn down. Hard to compare last years stats with this years and come up with definitive results. This season is a wash imo.

The Dolphins have possessed the ball for 28:42 per game on average, which is a minute and 18 seconds less than the league average.

Additionally, there is virtually no correlation between offensive and opponents' passer rating in the league, from 2004 to 2016 on a team-by-team basis, or in 2016 on an individual game basis, so Tannehill's presence would've done nothing for the 2017 pass defense.

Again take a look at Drew Brees's past half-dozen seasons, where several of them have been losing ones despite that he's posted passer ratings either just below 100, or above 100. Those losing seasons were due to the Saints' very poor pass defenses, that even Drew Brees couldn't surmount. And that pattern has occurred for not only Drew Brees, but for other of the league's best QBs over time, as well.

To think Tannehill would've surmounted the 2017 Dolphins' pass defense is to think he would've brought something significantly better to the table than the likes of Drew Brees. Does anyone here really think that?

 

[Vaark]

What does a pass defense "rank" mean? Last year's pass defense surrendered an opposing passer rating of 88.5. This year's pass defense is surrendering one of 105.7.

As I've said many times, there have been 19 teams since 2004 that have surrendered a regular season opposing passer rating between 99 and 105. Those teams had an average record of 4-12, and all but one of them had a losing season.

The one team of the 19 with a winning season was the 2004 Packers, which had Brett Favre, finished 10-6, and were dispatched in the first round of the playoffs by the Vikings and Daunte Culpepper, to whom they surrendered a 137.1 passer rating in a 31-17 loss.

Compare that to the 2016 team's opponents' passer rating of 88.5, which is simply the league average, and which is associated with an 8-8 record on average.

In other words, the difference between the 2017 and 2016 pass defenses is associated with four expected regular season losses on average, in itself.

Now, consider the 0.92 correlation between passer rating differential and win percentage in the league since 2004, and consider that Tannehill's best passer rating for an extended period in 2016 was just above 100.

Now consider the passer rating differential that would equal if it were applied to the 2017 team -- 105.7 to 100. A passer rating differential of -5.7 is associated with an expected regular season record of 7-9.

Every 5.65 units of passer rating differential is associated with one win, in either direction.

Ryan Tannehill at his best extended 2016 level wasn't going to do anything noteworthy for this particular team, and nor could any other QB.

I liked you better when you were Shouright using your convoluted statistics to overtly and obsessively attack Tannehill as compared to this more passive aggressive subtler version still convoluting selective stats with the same intent.

 

[<O>]

I liked you better when you were Shouright using your convoluted statistics to overtly and obsessively attack Tannehill as compared to this more passive aggressive subtler version still convoluting selective stats with the same intent.

If I'm "attacking" Tannehill, I'm also "attacking" Drew Brees and every other great QB in the league who couldn't surmount his own team's very bad pass defense in a single season.

It's happened many times, and this season would've been no different for the Dolphins.

 

[Aquablood]

I liked you better when you were Shouright using your convoluted statistics to overtly and obsessively attack Tannehill as compared to this more passive aggressive subtler version still convoluting selective stats with the same intent.

When did a negative opinion formed from objective ( or subjective ) evaluation become an attack?

I believe a truly elite talented qb will shine in their second year starting. By third year, they are what they are.
A good coach can mask the weakness of the qb and make full use of their strengths, to make the qb more productive. But it is not elevating the talent of the same qb.

 

[Vaark]

When did a negative opinion formed from objective ( or subjective ) evaluation become an attack?

I believe a truly elite talented qb will shine in their second year starting. By third year, they are what they are.
A good coach can mask the weakness of the qb and make full use of their strengths, to make the qb more productive. But it is not elevating the talent of the same qb.

When the same tired (and time and again contested and disproven) agenda that got someone kicked to the curb gets repacked and resurfaces.

 

[<O>]

When did a negative opinion formed from objective ( or subjective ) evaluation become an attack?

What's interesting with regard to the perception of an "attack" on Tannehill is that the information I provided above actually allows any Tannehill supporter to fend off any person who claims the Dolphins' won-loss record during Tannehill's tenure is due exclusively to Tannehill.

Obviously the strong correlation between opponents' passer rating and win percentage, as well as the near-zero correlation between offensive and opponents' passer rating on a team-by-team basis, makes a claim that any team's won-loss record is due exclusively to its quarterback ludicrous.

So, rather than perceiving these as "attacks" on Tannehill, perhaps perceive them as support for his need -- and any QBs need -- for a surrounding cast, especially with regard to pass defense.

 

[Phinatic8u]

*walks by whistling*

 

[<O>]

*walks by whistling*

There is no doubt the 2017 offense would be much better with Tannehill than with the current QBs.

That's why the Dolphins' expected record with Tannehill would be 7-9, while the expected record without him is 4-12.

A single player would very likely be responsible for three regular season wins, which is highly significant.

 

[Aquablood]

There is no doubt the 2017 offense would be much better with Tannehill than with the current QBs.

That's why the Dolphins' expected record with Tannehill would be 7-9, while the expected record without him is 4-12.

A single player would very likely be responsible for three regular season wins, which is highly significant.

I give you 7-9. That's fair. I would give 6-10.
It would still be a disappointing season. Meaning the team is regressing. The problem I have is number of people thought TR is the second coming and Gase is not to blame this season.

 

[Phinatic8u]

I give you 7-9. That's fair. I would give 6-10.
It would still be a disappointing season. Meaning the team is regressing. The problem I have is number of people thought TR is the second coming and Gase is not to blame this season.

+3 wins is significant. That means he’s a damn good player.