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What to expect if the Fins trade down

CrunchTime

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Last year the the Giants and Chargers set a barometer for dealing a top first round pick.The Chargers got Rivers,a 2004 No3 , 2005 No 1 and No 5.


In effect they got two No 1s,one No 3 and one No 5 just for moving down four spots


Consequently if a team from the middle of the draft order would want to trade up we should expect to get at least two No 1s,a No 3 and a No 4.

There is a chart called the Draft pick value chart which sets some guidelines as to the relative trade value of picks.


http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pick_value_chart.htm



The Dallas Cowboys and the San Diego Chargers are the only team possesing two No 1 picks this year.The way they stand at the present time the Cowboys posess the 12 and 16 spots in the first round.The Chargers currently occupy the 18 and 26 draft position spots .


http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/currentdraftorder.htm


Using the charts and the assumption that we will have the No 2 or No 3 draft position in the upcoming draft we can make the following comparisons :


*No 2 position is worth 2600 points
*No 3 position is worth 2200 points
*Dallas draft positions add up to 2200 points
*Chargers draft positions add up to 1600 points.


Theoretically if the Cowboys wanted to trade their two picks for our No 1 we could get their two first picks in a straight swap.The Chargers would have to add some later picks to sweeten the pot .


That does not preclude other teams from trading up.There might be several teams who would be willing to sacrifice high future picks in order to challenge for a SB next year.The general rule of thumb in trading future picks is one round higher than in the present draft.A No 2 round pick in the present draft would be equivalent to a No 1 round pick in the following draft.

IMO I think we should consider taking future draft picks as part of the mix in an eventual tradedown for the following reasons:


*Its a relatively weak draft in positions we may need such as OL and QB.


*We are in a rebuilding mode and we need to accumulate draft picks for what I believe should be a three year plan to be competetive again.



*There may not be anyone interested in moving up unless we accept future picks as part of the package.


Draft Notes:This may not be the year to draft a franchise QB with the top pick although there may be several second tier QBs who could turn out to be just as good or better than the top two.

Included in this second tier are players you have heard off on this board such as Charlie Frye,Dan Orlovsky,Jason Campbell,Alex Smith ,Andrew Walters.

Also there are other QBs who could be taken in the later rounds such as LeFors and Mc Phearson.My favorites are the first three mentioned.


The bios for the top 150 players can be found at this site:
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/rankings/top.html
 
CrunchTime said:
Last year the the Giants and Chargers set a barometer for dealing a top first round pick.The Chargers got Rivers,a 2004 No3 , 2005 No 1 and No 5.

In effect they got two No 1s,one No 3 and one No 5 just for moving down four spots

Consequently if a team from the middle of the draft order would want to trade up we should expect to get at least two No 1s,a No 3 and a No 4.

There is a chart called the Draft pick value chart which sets some guidelines as to the relative trade value of picks.

http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pick_value_chart.htm


The Dallas Cowboys and the San Diego Chargers are the only team possesing two No 1 picks this year.The way they stand at the present time the Cowboys posess the 12 and 16 spots in the first round.The charges currently occupy the 18 and 26 draft position spots .

http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/currentdraftorder.htm

Using the charts and the assumption that we will have the No 2 or No 3 draft position in the upcoming draft we can make the following comparisons :

*No 2 position is worth 2600 points
*No 3 position is worth 2200 points
*Dallas draft positions add up to 2200 points
*Chargers draft positions add up to 1600 points.

Theoretically if the Cowboys wanted to trade their two picks for our No 1 we could get their two first picks in a straight swap.The Chargers would have to add some later picks to sweeten the pot .

That does not preclude other teams from trading up.There might be several teams who would be willing to sacrifice high future picks in order to challenge for a SB next year.The general rule of thumb in trading future picks is one round higher than in the present draft.A No 2 pick in the present draft would be equivalent to a No 1 in the following draft.

IMO I think we should consider taking future draft picks as part of the mix in an eventual tradedown for the following reasons:

*Its a relatively weak draft in positions we may need such as OL and QB.

*We are in a rebuilding mode and we need to accumulate draft picks for what I believe should be a three year plan to be competetive again.

Draft Notes:This may not be the year to draft a franchise QB with the top pick although there may be several second tier QBs who could turn out to be just as good or better than the top two.Included in this second tier are players you have heard off on this board such as Charlie Frye,Dan Orlovsky,Campbell,Alex Smith ,Andrew Walters.Also there are other QBs who could be taken in the later rounds such as LeFors and Mc Phearson.My favorites are the first three mentioned.

Assuming we trade down and get two No 1s a No 3,and a No 4 .I am formulating what will be the first of my many mock drafts.:rolleyes: .

No 1a Alex Barron-OT

No 1b Ronnie Brown-RB

No 3a Charlie Frye ,Dan Orlovsky or Campbell -QB

No 3b Rodrique Wright-DT

No 4 Jason Brown or Wilkerson-C

In addition I believe we will need help at the WR,OG positions.

I know a lot of you will find holes in this writeup but it does gives us a base from which to operate on so be free to take pot shots.

BTW the Dolphin writer for the site mentioned is also a Finheaven member and will participate in the discussion.His user name is Gunner.

His mock draft can be found at
http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/DolphinsColumn.htm
So!! does this mean we can trade some guy with a bum hamstring for an offensive doo-dah?? to dallas that is....
 
Wilkerson will be way gone before the 4th round and I think Wright will be gone earlier also.
 
I like that but really think Wilkerson will be off the board before the second day. I also don't think Ronnie Brown will make it out of the top 10. Don't get me wrong I like your ideas, but some of it will have to be adjusted for where these college guys will go. At this time last year Andrews was supposed to be a top 3 pick... Things change as the combine comes around.
 
I like your thinking and agree we should wait to pick up a QB in the later rounds. (I'm a big fan of Orlovsky) Only thing I find wrong w/ it is that Rod Wright will be gone by the 3rd round. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go in the 1st....
 
Sounds great but what teams do you really think may trade up and for who? Is there any one player who's value will be nearly as high as E.Mannings was for the Giants last year?
 
Finz Fury said:
Sounds great but what teams do you really think may trade up and for who? Is there any one player who's value will be nearly as high as E.Mannings was for the Giants last year?
exactly.

In order for those "points" to work, there has to be a player on board WARRANTING a trade like that. Eli is a franchise QB. NO PLAYER in this draft is worth your entire draft to get. We are NOT going to get that. If we can pick up a latter 1st rounder and an early 2nd and a 3rd, its a good trade. I think thats the BEST we are going to get for our #2 pick.

I think the only pick we NEED to take is Wilkerson/Brown with a late 2nd/early 3rd pick.

As long as we take a DT/OT/RB with the 1st pick, and another with the 2nd pick, its cool with me.
 
Rodrique Wright is the best DT in the draft, he will not only be gone by the 3rd, but he will be gone by the 15th pick. If we end up with your scenario falling into place I think a much more likely draft is
1a Rodrique Wright DT Texas
1b Elton Brown G UVA
3a Ben Wilkerson C LSU
3b Alex Smith QB Utah/Dan Orlovsky QB UCONN
4 Safety (I havent gotten this far in looking at the top prospects yet.)
 
NJFINSFAN1 said:
Wilkerson will be way gone before the 4th round and I think Wright will be gone earlier also.

I guess you can call it a wish list rather than a mock draft.However it does accurately represent positional needs.Its too early yet for mock drafts.We have top see how these players compare in the combines.
 
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