Why Burke might be getting a mulligan...

[Digital]

I only scratched the surface on those numbers, which came from pro-football-reference.com's defensive splits. It would have been very time consuming to compare each team since there is no ready made table on their site for splits, the stats are on each individual team's pages. But I did check out some of the top 10 Ds around the league and noticed a couple of things right away.

• Every top 10 defense I checked played significantly better with a lead. Although I cant tell you at what rate compared to the Fins.
• This one is obvious... Top 10 Ds played better than the Fins, with or without a lead.
• This one is why I made the thread in the first place: All the top 10 Ds I checked had the inverse number of snaps of playing with a lead/trailing... All of them played almost twice as many snaps with a lead compared to trailing.... The Fins ratio is out of whack on that one, its the opposite as they played trailing snaps more than twice as many than leading snaps...

As you say though, one would have to go much deeper than this to draw serious conclusions. The most glaring flaw here is that defenses have a big say in how often their team is leading, all units depend on one another so it gets tricky. But there's still no question in my mind that the lack of offense made the D look worse than it really is, I'm just not sure to what extent...

All excellent points. During the 2016 season, Gase's first and when we had Tannehill ascending, there was a lot of discussion of playing complementary football. Most of us agreed that it makes a big difference. I even posited that Ajayi's style was instrumental in that because we were able to inflict a lot of damage on defenses over the course of the first three quarters, and then saw gash plays in the fourth.

Furthermore, the less snaps a defense has to play, the better it is statistically. The longer an opposing offense goes between drives, the harder it is for them to find their rhythm. Most offenses in today's NFL are rhythm passing offenses, so it makes a big difference. While Drake makes more gash plays, he doesn't punish defenders. Sure, having our guards firing out on LB's definitely punishes a defense, but DB's aren't scared to tackle Drake, and he leaves no dings on opposing LB's. The fourth quarter benefit simply isn't as effective. That's just a stylistic thing.

I was always a huge Larry Csonka fan ... and you can't compare a Tony Dorsett offense to a Larry Csonka offense ... because Dorsett never punished people. Csonka demolished them, and by the 4th quarter, the defense just wanted the game to end. Ajayi gave us a little of that with his consistently top 1 or 2 in the league in yardage after contact. And his many shorter move the chain runs kept opposing offenses off the field and cold. Ajayi demoralized opposing offenses because his style psychologically felt unstoppable. That helps our defense stay fresh, and stay on edge.

Gase's system requires an offense firing on all cylinders. It can definitely work with Drake and Williams, but we need better pass protection and better run lanes to get it working well. Part of what our defense is lacking will be aided by having a better OL. Then again, my arms are tired from beating that drum.

 

[Digital]

The D-line is just not a very good unit. They don't have a legit weak side rusher. The #2 DT's we have are more likely #3 or 4 rotational guys. we have an All-Pro pass rusher who is not great at dropping in coverage or playing the run. Top it off with the fact that we have LBer's who cannot tackle. The scheme is based on the DT's getting up-field and they have not had one consistently do it (outside of Suh).

I would not bank on Jordan Phillips. Sure he may have a huge contract year but then what? I would also not bank on our 2nd year players turning into dominant DT's. It may happen but I wouldn't count on it.

If they want to improve this unit and stop wasting Suh's (and Wakes) valuable years they need to find a DT who is more consistently disruptive and commands double teams. You would then see a much different and more dominant Ndamukong Suh. There are a couple in this draft.

I love Wake but we need a base SDE (Hayes) as long as he is here. I would like to see better play from the weak side and a bigger SDE who can play the run as well as offer a pass rush. Give me some 6'5 275 lb DE's.

Sadly, I agree with everything you said Esti.

I keep looking at the possibility of Arden Key falling to us. While he isn't quite the guy you're describing, he would be a monster DE, and I can't see us passing up Chubb or Key if either falls to us.

As for DT's, I keep thinking about when Aaron Donald came out, and slipped further down the draft than he should have.

We're drafting in a spot where there will be talent, but not a wide selection of it. We need to go BPA in round 1, regardless of position, because the likely dropoff will be big. Arden Key might just be the pick.

 

[Carne Asada]

I'd support Key and the organization if we picked him but I wouldn't pick him myself.

I remember being pissed over the Jordan pick and everybody else defending it. I'd hate the pick but would love it if he proved me wrong the way I kept waiting Jordan to.

 

[Carne Asada]

Btw, I would have picked Lane Johnson or Ziggy Ansah, the value on the trade was very good but the pick was awful.

 

[Danny]

I don't know that Key would be a good fit and he's 6'6 and only 238? How is he going to hold up at the POA vs the run?

Ozzy rules!!

 

[Digital]

Btw, I would have picked Lane Johnson or Ziggy Ansah, the value on the trade was very good but the pick was awful.

I wanted to stay where we were at and draft Tyler Eifert, but when we traded up I wanted and expected Lane Johnson. In the end, I didn't expect Jordan to be a bust, but he wouldn't have been my pick either.

 

[Carne Asada]

He wasn't a scheme fit. I remember sensing Philbin and Coyle being upset with the pick.

They never said it was bad but they didn't seem excited at all. That move along with Wheeler and Ellerbe when Burnett and Dansby where better got Ireland the boot, IMO.

 

[Eesti]

Sadly, I agree with everything you said Esti.

I keep looking at the possibility of Arden Key falling to us. While he isn't quite the guy you're describing, he would be a monster DE, and I can't see us passing up Chubb or Key if either falls to us.

As for DT's, I keep thinking about when Aaron Donald came out, and slipped further down the draft than he should have.

We're drafting in a spot where there will be talent, but not a wide selection of it. We need to go BPA in round 1, regardless of position, because the likely dropoff will be big. Arden Key might just be the pick.

I'm leery of some of the issues for Key that led him to walk away from football. Especially for all the head case crap that has happened here over the last half a decade but some of those details will come out in the wash over the next couple of months.

I do agree we have a good shot of finally getting a star player at 11. The history of the pick (11) itself is pretty impressive. We haven't drafted a star (in the first round) who made an immediate impact for a long time. If a stud edge rusher is not available I would look at DT or LB.

2017 Marshon Lattimore Saints 1 11 11 DB Ohio State
2016 Vernon Hargreaves Buccaneers 1 11 11 DB Florida
2015 Trae Waynes Vikings 1 11 11 DB Michigan State
2014 Taylor Lewan Titans 1 11 11 T Michigan
2013 D.J. Fluker Chargers 1 11 11 T Alabama
2012 Dontari Poe Chiefs 1 11 11 DT Memphis
2011 J.J. Watt Texans 1 11 11 DE Wisconsin
2010 Anthony Davis 49ers 1 11 11 T Rutgers
2009 Aaron Maybin Bills 1 11 11 DE Penn State
2008 Leotis McKelvin Bills 1 11 11 DB Troy
2007 Patrick Willis 49ers 1 11 11 LB Mississippi
2006 Jay Cutler Broncos 1 11 11 QB Vanderbilt
2005 Demarcus Ware Cowboys 1 11 11 DE Troy
2004 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers 1 11 11 QB Miami (OH)
2003 Marcus Trufant Seahawks 1 11 11 DB Washington State
2002 Dwight Freeney Colts 1 11 11 DE Syracuse
2001 Dan Morgan Panthers 1 11 11 LB Miami (FL)

 

[Digital]

I'm leery of some of the issues for Key that led him to walk away from football. Especially for all the head case crap that has happened here over the last half a decade but some of those details will come out in the wash over the next couple of months.

I do agree we have a good shot of finally getting a star player at 11. The history of the pick (11) itself is pretty impressive. We haven't drafted a star (in the first round) who made an immediate impact for a long time. If a stud edge rusher is not available I would look at DT or LB.

2017 Marshon Lattimore Saints 1 11 11 DB Ohio State
2016 Vernon Hargreaves Buccaneers 1 11 11 DB Florida
2015 Trae Waynes Vikings 1 11 11 DB Michigan State
2014 Taylor Lewan Titans 1 11 11 T Michigan
2013 D.J. Fluker Chargers 1 11 11 T Alabama
2012 Dontari Poe Chiefs 1 11 11 DT Memphis
2011 J.J. Watt Texans 1 11 11 DE Wisconsin
2010 Anthony Davis 49ers 1 11 11 T Rutgers
2009 Aaron Maybin Bills 1 11 11 DE Penn State
2008 Leotis McKelvin Bills 1 11 11 DB Troy
2007 Patrick Willis 49ers 1 11 11 LB Mississippi
2006 Jay Cutler Broncos 1 11 11 QB Vanderbilt
2005 Demarcus Ware Cowboys 1 11 11 DE Troy
2004 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers 1 11 11 QB Miami (OH)
2003 Marcus Trufant Seahawks 1 11 11 DB Washington State
2002 Dwight Freeney Colts 1 11 11 DE Syracuse
2001 Dan Morgan Panthers 1 11 11 LB Miami (FL)

That is a whole lot of good.