With the 11th pick, the Jaguars select....Dolphins need to shake things up.

[TheWozz]

In 2010 the Miami Dolphins had the 12th pick in the draft but decided to trade down with San Diego picking up San Diego's 28th pick and 40th pick (2nd round pick). We picked up Jared Odrick and Koa Misi with those two picks and in the process passed up on elite talent in Earl Thomas, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant (for some). So you think it worked out so well you'd like to do it again?

Pass.

But we could point to trade ups that busted alongside bypassing trade offers to stay pat and draft a bust when there were studs picked later. And each of the three scenarios can probably be demonstrated with most teams in the NFL. Mandating a strategy or the avoidance of a strategy because it went belly up one time does not make sense. It depends on who is on the board, what we can get and who we think will be there later.

 

[SkapePhin]

Teams do not draft QBs in the first round as an insurance policy. They draft them to start, soon. They do it when they have already made the decision to move to the next QB in the near future.

Aaron Rodgers was drafted at the end of Favre's 14th season. Garrapolo was drafted at the end of Brady's 14th season. Mahomes was drafted at the end of Smith's 11th season.

Sign me up for drafting the QB of the future in 7 or 8 years.

They also do it when they have a starter who hasn't lived up entirely to the promises of becoming an elite QB. Such teams, if they are competently run, invest in a high ceiling QB if given the opportunity... Consider the Chargers who had Drew Brees as a starter investing in Philip Rivers. Consider the 49ers who drafted Colin Kapernick after their former top pick Alex Smith didn't live up to expectations... Consider Kansas City who drafted Mahomes even with Alex Smith pencilled in as their starter...

Tannehill has been mostly good since he was drafted, but never elite. I believe he could become a Top 10 QB, but that is far from guaranteed. More likely he will remain a middle of the pack QB, which isn't good enough. Another interesting thing about the aforementioned teams is that once they invested a high pick in a QB, the middling QBs had career years... Brees and Alex Smith had their best years with those organizations after being pushed by a highly picked rookie QB. Perhaps it would have the same effect for Tannehill.

 

[The Ghost]

if josh allen gets to 11 you will have a much better offer waiting for you than that

Any potential trade that yields a future 1st round pick needs to be considered and that will likely be the starting point for any negotiation. I especially like the idea of getting a first round pick from a team that plans on starting a rookie QB for 16 games.

If you really want some next level thinking, I've already planned to trade back up to 18 with the Seahawks who are DESPERATE for draft picks. They have no 2nd or 3rd round picks because of the Sheldon Richardson and Duane Brown trades.

 

[SCLSU Mud Dogs]

I think it's a myth that Miami can't get an immediate impact player if they trade down. The problem is, the likelihood of getting that impact player goes down with every pick.

So if Miami thinks it can get two immediate and long-term stars for the price of one, I'm all for it. Or if Miami got an additional second or third to move down 3 spots, I'd do that too.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

They also do it when they have a starter who hasn't lived up entirely to the promises of becoming an elite QB. Such teams, if they are competently run, invest in a high ceiling QB if given the opportunity... Consider the Chargers who had Drew Brees as a starter investing in Philip Rivers. Consider the 49ers who drafted Colin Kapernick after their former top pick Alex Smith didn't live up to expectations... Consider Kansas City who drafted Mahomes even with Alex Smith pencilled in as their starter...

Tannehill has been mostly good since he was drafted, but never elite. I believe he could become a Top 10 QB, but that is far from guaranteed. More likely he will remain a middle of the pack QB, which isn't good enough. Another interesting thing about the aforementioned teams is that once they invested a high pick in a QB, the middling QBs had career years... Brees and Alex Smith had their best years with those organizations after being pushed by a highly picked rookie QB. Perhaps it would have the same effect for Tannehill.

There have been 49 QBs drafted in the first round since 2000. Exactly ZERO teams drafted a QB in the first round as an insurance policy. They all fell into one of three categories:

1. No legit QB on the roster
2. Legit QB with 11 or more years of experience
3. Had a starter that was dramatically under performing (Brees) or was thought to be washed up (Warner, he had started 7, 2, 10, and 10 games over the 4 seasons prior to drafting Leinart)

At the time that the Chargers drafted Eli Manning, Brees had thrown more INTs than TDs, despite having the best RB in the league. In 2003, Brees was out performed by Doug Flutie. He was DONE in San Diego. That is when teams draft QBs. Tannehill has been miles and miles better than Brees during Brees' first two years as a starter. In the end, the only example you can come up with was a mistake by the team that drafted the QB in the first round.

Here is the complete list:

Year Pick Name Team Current QB Exp
2017 2 Mitchell Trubisky Bears Cutler, Hoyer, Barkley
2017 10 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Smith 11
2017 12 Deshaun Watson Texans Osweiler
2016 1 Jared Goff Rams Keenum, Foles
2016 2 Carson Wentz Eagles Bradford, Sanchez
2016 26 Paxton Lynch Broncos Osweiler
2015 1 Jameis Winston Buccaneers Glennon, McCown
2015 2 Marcus Mariota Titans Locker, Whitehurst, Mettenberger
2014 3 Blake Bortles Jaguars Henne
2014 22 Johnny Manziel Browns Weeden, Campbell
2014 32 Teddy Bridgewater Vikings Cassel, Ponder
2013 16 EJ Manuel Bills Fitzpatrick
2012 1 Andrew Luck Colts Orlovsky, Painter
2012 2 Robert Griffin III Redskins Grossman, Beck
2012 8 Ryan Tannehill Dolphins Henne, Moore
2012 22 Brandon Weeden Browns McCoy, Wallace
2011 1 Cam Newton Panthers Clausen, Moore
2011 8 Jake Locker Titans Young, Collins
2011 10 Blaine Gabbert Jaguars Garrard
2011 12 Christian Ponder Vikings Favre 20
2010 1 Sam Bradford Rams Bulger, Boller
2010 25 Tim Tebow Broncos Orton
2009 1 Matthew Stafford Lions Orlovsky, Kitna, Culpepper
2009 5 Mark Sanchez Jets Favre 18
2009 17 Josh Freeman Buccaneers Garcia, Griese
2008 3 Matt Ryan Falcons Redman, Harrington
2008 18 Joe Flacco Ravens Boller, McNair
2007 1 JaMarcus Russell Raiders Aaron Brooks, Andrew Walter
2007 22 Brady Quinn Browns Frye, Anderson
2006 3 Vince Young Titans McNair 11
2006 10 Matt Leinart Cardinals Warner, McCown
2006 11 Jay Cutler Broncos Plummer
2005 1 Alex Smith 49ers Rattay, Dorsey
2005 24 Aaron Rodgers Packers Favre 14
2005 25 Jason Campbell Redskins Ramsey, Brunell
2004 1 Eli Manning Chargers Brees, Flutie
2004 4 Philip Rivers Giants Collins
2004 11 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers Maddox
2004 22 J.P. Losman Bills Bledsoe 11
2003 1 Carson Palmer Bengals Kitna
2003 7 Byron Leftwich Jaguars Brunell
2003 19 Kyle Boller Ravens Blake, Redman
2003 22 Rex Grossman Bears Chandler, Miller
2002 1 David Carr Texans N/A
2002 3 Joey Harrington Lions Batch, McMahon, Detmer
2002 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Banks
2001 1 Michael Vick Falcons Chandler, Kanell
2000 18 Chad Pennington Jets Lucas, Mirer

One other thing to mention, the majority of QBs on the list failed as NFL QBs and would be a downgrade from Tannehill.

 

[The Ghost]

FinfanInBuffalo, excellent stuff.


2016 26 Paxton Lynch Broncos Osweiler
2015 1 Jameis Winston Buccaneers Glennon, McCown
2015 2 Marcus Mariota Titans Locker, Whitehurst, Mettenberger
2014 3 Blake Bortles Jaguars Henne
2014 22 Johnny Manziel Browns Weeden, Campbell
2014 32 Teddy Bridgewater Vikings Cassel, Ponder
2013 16 EJ Manuel Bills Fitzpatrick
2012 1 Andrew Luck Colts Orlovsky, Painter
2012 2 Robert Griffin III Redskins Grossman, Beck
2012 8 Ryan Tannehill Dolphins Henne, Moore
2012 22 Brandon Weeden Browns McCoy, Wallace

Ryan Tannehill looks even better at this point than he did 5 minutes ago before I saw that list.

Sadly, Henne is on the wrong side of that list twice. (Although I'd take his career and bank roll)

And for the sake of honesty......I thought Jake Locker was going to be good.

Ben Roethlisberger is the QB I wanted the most in the post Marino era. I still remember watching that draft with a Steelers buddy of mine of congratulating him right there on the spot.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

FinfanInBuffalo, excellent stuff.


2016 26 Paxton Lynch Broncos Osweiler
2015 1 Jameis Winston Buccaneers Glennon, McCown
2015 2 Marcus Mariota Titans Locker, Whitehurst, Mettenberger
2014 3 Blake Bortles Jaguars Henne
2014 22 Johnny Manziel Browns Weeden, Campbell
2014 32 Teddy Bridgewater Vikings Cassel, Ponder
2013 16 EJ Manuel Bills Fitzpatrick
2012 1 Andrew Luck Colts Orlovsky, Painter
2012 2 Robert Griffin III Redskins Grossman, Beck
2012 8 Ryan Tannehill Dolphins Henne, Moore
2012 22 Brandon Weeden Browns McCoy, Wallace

Ryan Tannehill looks even better at this point than he did 5 minutes ago before I saw that list.

Sadly, Henne is on the wrong side of that list twice. (Although I'd take his career and bank roll)

And for the sake of honesty......I thought Jake Locker was going to be good.

Some posters claim that the Dolphins should just "Draft a 1st round QB" when they really mean that the Dolphins should "Just find a HOF QB". Awesome, develop an approach with chance of success greater than 1% and let's do it.

There is a whole lotta crap on both sides on that list.

 

[SkapePhin]

There have been 49 QBs drafted in the first round since 2000. Exactly ZERO teams drafted a QB in the first round as an insurance policy. They all fell into one of three categories:

1. No legit QB on the roster
2. Legit QB with 11 or more years of experience
3. Had a starter that was dramatically under performing (Brees) or was thought to be washed up (Warner, he had started 7, 2, 10, and 10 games over the 4 seasons prior to drafting Leinart)

At the time that the Chargers drafted Eli Manning, Brees had thrown more INTs than TDs, despite having the best RB in the league. In 2003, Brees was out performed by Doug Flutie. He was DONE in San Diego. That is when teams draft QBs. Tannehill has been miles and miles better than Brees during Brees' first two years as a starter. In the end, the only example you can come up with was a mistake by the team that drafted the QB in the first round.

Here is the complete list:

Year Pick Name Team Current QB Exp
2017 2 Mitchell Trubisky Bears Cutler, Hoyer, Barkley
2017 10 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Smith 11
2017 12 Deshaun Watson Texans Osweiler
2016 1 Jared Goff Rams Keenum, Foles
2016 2 Carson Wentz Eagles Bradford, Sanchez
2016 26 Paxton Lynch Broncos Osweiler
2015 1 Jameis Winston Buccaneers Glennon, McCown
2015 2 Marcus Mariota Titans Locker, Whitehurst, Mettenberger
2014 3 Blake Bortles Jaguars Henne
2014 22 Johnny Manziel Browns Weeden, Campbell
2014 32 Teddy Bridgewater Vikings Cassel, Ponder
2013 16 EJ Manuel Bills Fitzpatrick
2012 1 Andrew Luck Colts Orlovsky, Painter
2012 2 Robert Griffin III Redskins Grossman, Beck
2012 8 Ryan Tannehill Dolphins Henne, Moore
2012 22 Brandon Weeden Browns McCoy, Wallace
2011 1 Cam Newton Panthers Clausen, Moore
2011 8 Jake Locker Titans Young, Collins
2011 10 Blaine Gabbert Jaguars Garrard
2011 12 Christian Ponder Vikings Favre 20
2010 1 Sam Bradford Rams Bulger, Boller
2010 25 Tim Tebow Broncos Orton
2009 1 Matthew Stafford Lions Orlovsky, Kitna, Culpepper
2009 5 Mark Sanchez Jets Favre 18
2009 17 Josh Freeman Buccaneers Garcia, Griese
2008 3 Matt Ryan Falcons Redman, Harrington
2008 18 Joe Flacco Ravens Boller, McNair
2007 1 JaMarcus Russell Raiders Aaron Brooks, Andrew Walter
2007 22 Brady Quinn Browns Frye, Anderson
2006 3 Vince Young Titans McNair 11
2006 10 Matt Leinart Cardinals Warner, McCown
2006 11 Jay Cutler Broncos Plummer
2005 1 Alex Smith 49ers Rattay, Dorsey
2005 24 Aaron Rodgers Packers Favre 14
2005 25 Jason Campbell Redskins Ramsey, Brunell
2004 1 Eli Manning Chargers Brees, Flutie
2004 4 Philip Rivers Giants Collins
2004 11 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers Maddox
2004 22 J.P. Losman Bills Bledsoe 11
2003 1 Carson Palmer Bengals Kitna
2003 7 Byron Leftwich Jaguars Brunell
2003 19 Kyle Boller Ravens Blake, Redman
2003 22 Rex Grossman Bears Chandler, Miller
2002 1 David Carr Texans N/A
2002 3 Joey Harrington Lions Batch, McMahon, Detmer
2002 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Banks
2001 1 Michael Vick Falcons Chandler, Kanell
2000 18 Chad Pennington Jets Lucas, Mirer

One other thing to mention, the majority of QBs on the list failed as NFL QBs and would be a downgrade from Tannehill.

There aren't many historical examples of teams having a 30 year old QB going into his 6th year with a team who has never crossed the threshold into elite status, never guided a team to a playoff or playoff win, having lost an entire year to a knee injury which was reaggravated from a prior knee injury. I like Tannehill, but let's not pretend he's a sure thing. Drafting a high ceiling QB at 11 wouldn't merely be insurance, it would be investment.

QBs tend to retain some of their value, unlike other positions. Josh Allen is a good prospect. I wouldn't draft just any QB in the first round... I certainly wouldn't suggest trading up for one right now. It's just that with this particular player, at that draft slot, with this current situation, I think it makes more sense than trading away the pick...

It's likely a moot point as I don't think Allen will be there at 11.

Tannehill is currently in the Alex Smith and Andy Dalton bracket. Good vet QBs who haven't proven that they can lead their teams' to playoff success. They aren't untouchable. If there is an opportunity to upgrade them, smart teams should take it.

 

[hoops]

why can't tannehill throw the ball 30 times in a half as long as he's making the correct reads? patriots don't do that every week any ways it's opponent specific more than anything else

the accuracy and placement is good enough

the thing that gets left out here is brady has been running the same o for well over 10 years... not going into year 2 of on field play

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Teams do not draft QBs in the first round as an insurance policy. They draft them to start, soon. They do it when they have already made the decision to move to the next QB in the near future.

Aaron Rodgers was drafted at the end of Favre's 14th season. Garrapolo was drafted at the end of Brady's 14th season. Mahomes was drafted at the end of Smith's 11th season.

Sign me up for drafting the QB of the future in 7 or 8 years.

So you want to wait until Tannehill is 37 or 38 years old?

That's why I don't mind being criticized around here. Keep it up. Multiply by dozens. My logic will hold up fairly well in comparison.

Just a guess.

***

Josh Allen would be the most intriguing draft pick in recent franchise history. I could support it, even though I'm not fully convinced on Allen. His arm is phenomenal. Big play potential from anywhere on the field. His touch is not ideal. He is athletic but not always aware in the pocket. His completion percentage is stalled in the 56-57% area.

It would be a gamble on greatness. It's about time this franchise tries that type of thing. Unlike Tannehill who moved up the draft boards late, there were many early mocks drafts last offseason that had Josh Allen going number one or two. But he suffered this season since his best skill position helpers from 2016 had graduated. Wyoming gradually had to alter its style during 2017, becoming more physical on both sides of the ball. It paid off with the bowl victory.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

There aren't many historical examples of teams having a 30 year old QB going into his 6th year with a team who has never crossed the threshold into elite status, never guided a team to a playoff or playoff win, having lost an entire year to a knee injury which was reaggravated from a prior knee injury. I like Tannehill, but let's not pretend he's a sure thing. Drafting a high ceiling QB at 11 wouldn't merely be insurance, it would be investment.

QBs tend to retain some of their value, unlike other positions. Josh Allen is a good prospect. I wouldn't draft just any QB in the first round... I certainly wouldn't suggest trading up for one right now. It's just that with this particular player, at that draft slot, with this current situation, I think it makes more sense than trading away the pick...

It's likely a moot point as I don't think Allen will be there at 11.

Tannehill is currently in the Alex Smith and Andy Dalton bracket. Good vet QBs who haven't proven that they can lead their teams' to playoff success. They aren't untouchable. If there is an opportunity to upgrade them, smart teams should take it.

The knee injury is irrelevant. Please tell me the number of QBs in recent years where a knee injury has detailed their careers this early in their career.

QBs that perform well for years without team playoff success are not uncommon. Ryan, Rivers, Stafford, etc etc. Evaluate the player as the Dolphins have done and you don’t draft a QB.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

why can't tannehill throw the ball 30 times in a half as long as he's making the correct reads? patriots don't do that every week any ways it's opponent specific more than anything else

He's not elite. I want a Steve Jobs making 30 major decisions in a given morning. I don't want some plodder CEO doing it.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

So you want to wait until Tannehill is 37 or 38 years old?

That's why I don't mind being criticized around here. Keep it up. Multiply by dozens. My logic will hold up fairly well in comparison.

Just a guess.

***

Josh Allen would be the most intriguing draft pick in recent franchise history. I could support it, even though I'm not fully convinced on Allen. His arm is phenomenal. Big play potential from anywhere on the field. His touch is not ideal. He is athletic but not always aware in the pocket. His completion percentage is stalled in the 56-57% area.

It would be a gamble on greatness. It's about time this franchise tries that type of thing. Unlike Tannehill who moved up the draft boards late, there were many early mocks drafts last offseason that had Josh Allen going number one or two. But he suffered this season since his best skill position helpers from 2016 had graduated. Wyoming gradually had to alter its style during 2017, becoming more physical on both sides of the ball. It paid off with the bowl victory.

LOL. Still hurting over Tannehill exceeding your predictions?

 

[SkapePhin]

The knee injury is irrelevant. Please tell me the number of QBs in recent years where a knee injury has detailed their careers this early in their career.

QBs that perform well for years without team playoff success are not uncommon. Ryan, Rivers, Stafford, etc etc. Evaluate the player as the Dolphins have done and you don’t draft a QB.

Bradford and RGIII had their careers significantly altered due to knee injuries. I think Tannehill will recover fine, but it may impact his mobility which is one of his assets.

As for the players you mentioned...

In their first 6 years:

Matt Ryan:
4 playoff appearances (including 1 NFC Championship Appearance), 1 playoff win

Philip Rivers:
4 playoff appearances (including 1 AFC Championship Appearance), 3 playoff wins *He sat his first 2 years, I started from the year he first started

Matthew Stafford:
2 playoff appearances (remember that he was drafted to a winless team)

Ryan Tannehill:
0 playoff appearances (although I give him a ton of credit for helping bring the Dolphins to the playoffs in 2016, unfortunately he couldn't finish the job due to injury)

I know you might want it to be the case, but Tannehill is not in the same company as Matt Ryan, Rivers or Stafford. I have hope he could further develop and be a late bloomer like Rich Gannon, but your argument is baseless when you compare Tannehill to those guys at the beginning of their careers.

 

[Carne Asada]

I don't want a QB in the 1st. I don't like Allen. I like Mayfield but I'm worried about his hand size and Manziel-esque personality.

I would trade down that far for good value. I'm sure one of Elliot, Reid, Evans, Andrews, Bryan, Ejiofor and Harold Landry will be there.

If we lose Jarvis; Kirk, DJ Moore or Tate will be there.

Actually if we lose Landry and want a comp pick the only way we'll fill the roster will be by trading down.