1st Round drafting no QB

[Birdmond]

Who would you rather have?
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson???

If you say Jackson, and Tua is not there at 5, I go:
1a Simmons or Derrick Brown
1b best OT or Edge
1c best OL or DB
2a BPA
2c Jalen Hurts

Hurts isn't Jackson on his feet but he throws better and can do some of the things Jackson does. That gives you 4 excellent likely top-quality starters and an athletic, Watson/Jackson-type QB to groom for a year and who knows, maybe by than Rosen has it figured out.

If I’m drafting Hurts, them some how I want Wirfs , Becton and A.J. Dillon. I’m going emulate the Titans offense and just run over defenses.

 

[NBP81]

Can you imagine giving up 3 1s and he never fully recoups. Yikes no thanks

Too many holes to mortgage the future

I'd like to present this another way, I think people view 3x 1st round pick as this huge investement, others view it as mortgaging the future. Reality is its all relative to the amount of actual assets you have at the moment.

Mortaging the future would mean dipping in future draft picks leaving you in a bad situation going foward. This is clearly not the situation the Fins find themselves in. They've got about 3x the amount of draft value over teams and almost 2x as much next off-season.

How much are you willing to invest in a solid QB prospect?
Is one 1st round pick the same investment for a team that has a normal draft vs. a team that has 3x the value in the bank?

I really think it isnt... The 1st round pick of the 1st team accounts for what? ~30% of all its draft value...(obviously making numbers up here, just trying to illustrate my point). One 1st round pick for the Fins ATM might be less then 10% of all its draft value ATM.

Call me crazy but I see a huge difference between a team giving up a current 1st, next season's 1st and the season after that's first VS. The Fins giving up 3x 1st this season, and still have more draft value than most teams in the remaining of the draft and the next one.

 

[Dolphinator530]

I do not quite get the build a great team then get the QB mentality, if people arent sold on trading up for a guy this year why is next year or the year after any different? And if you think the price is high now if Miami wins just 6 games next year could be picking between 8-11, wtf will be the price getting into the top 2 then; hell if they go 8-8 could be as high as 18. Willing to mortgage 3 years of draft picks to get the QB then. Now is the time to strike, stop being safe. Make a play for greatness. Having 1 all pro defensive guy and some starters doesn't move the needle at all. Possibly getting a top 5 QB in the league oh yeah that moves the needle. Building the roster first never seems like a great way to go and only works when a team gets lucky and gets a 6th or 3rd round pick to be the guy. Building a team then trying to find a QB makes you the Vikings, lets pass on the idea of year after year of one and done in the playoffs as our acceptable level. If you want to not take one at five thats okay but then you will have to trade both other 1st to get up to take a Love or Herbert so either way you are loosing picks. Hurts isn't a plan A, just hasn't shown the QB skills you need to be elite. Tremendous kid and leader but I wouldn't stake my career on him.

What is the obsession with keeping all 14 picks anyway; it is like people think if we keep them all then all 14 will be all pros and if we trade a few of them every player picked will be a bust. Even with this staff in place keeping 14 picks most will flame out. Id rather give them 2/3 super talented guys and then a handful of other talented guys who they can develop than 14 guys which may have 1 super talented guy and the rest need work.

But to each their own.

 

[Dolphinator530]

I’m on board.

I’m also on board with drafting Tua at 5 if he’s there.

I’m not giving up a first to move up though.

I’m pretty flexible and could see the value of going in any number of directions.

Been waiting a long time to have monstrous draft capital. I’d like to do everything possible to ensure the next 3-4 drafts have this many assets.

I’m a big picture guy.

If you feel as if you are flexible then you should be willing to move up to get a targeted player. Contradicting yourself here.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Putting off the quarterback decision for 2021 is a risk.

That said, if Tua is gone and Miami isn't sold on any other quarterback going in another direction makes sense.

 

[The Bopkin]

QB is the single most important position and is at a value of at least 4 other position players.

.

Hello
I have read that link and it is great. I have been working on understanding better what people mean when they talk about value. I thought I knew till I read that link!
Anyway, could you explain what you mean in your comment that I have made bold? The value of 4 other position players.
Thank you

 

[FSU Truth]

One of the big reasons for going with the defensive route rarely leads to long term success.

 

[The Bopkin]

One of the big reasons for going with the defensive route rarely leads to long term success.

I am not familiar with the Jaguars, but are all of the guys defensive guys?
Either it says a lot about the Jaguars, or it validates what some posters have said on here about building a team, and how it is much harder to keep a defense together than an offense?

 

[FSU Truth]

I am not familiar with the Jaguars, but are all of the guys defensive guys?
Either it says a lot about the Jaguars, or it validates what some posters have said on here about building a team, and how it is much harder to keep a defense together than an offense?

yes, all are defenders

 

[Dolphinator530]

I am not familiar with the Jaguars, but are all of the guys defensive guys?
Either it says a lot about the Jaguars, or it validates what some posters have said on here about building a team, and how it is much harder to keep a defense together than an offense?

Much harder to keep a group like that together, the unit operates that well because of the cohesion and trust built. Offenses can stay together because the biggest driving force of the offense (QB) stays the same. Drafting guys to replace defenders who have proven to be great is way harder in today’s NFL, the jags trade Ramsey and doubt they find a lock down guy for the next few years. Replacing a WR isn’t as hard with the development of offensive systems to match college systems and rules playing to them having success.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

I say...do what you need to in order to land Tua...draft capital means diddly squat when you are constantly searching for a QB. You can play it safe and live in the land of mediocrity, or you take a chance a greatness. I hope Grier has the stones to take a chance.

First, I'm going a little OT. Skip this paragraph if you don't care. In business school, had a professor obsessed with the human nature side of business. I've talked elsewhere about risk aversion. The 2nd part of that is risk aversion of the other side of a negotiation. There are high paid consutants who do nothing but study organizations for risk aversion. end of tangent.

No one knows Miami's risk aversion. The good news is there's very little hx on Flo so the 'other side' has little to go on. OTOH, Wash and DET have some hx. WASH staff and FO, in particular, have some hx. DET not so much, but more than Miami. The trick in all this is gauging the risk aversion Grier/Flo, DET, and WASH. No one here has a clue. Miami's analysis of that data will go a long way to determining whether Miami moves up and how much value to give up. Throw in no one knows how Miami rates the diferentials among TUa, Burrow, and Herbert (and others), and predicting the 1st 5 picks becomes speculation.

 

[The Ghost]

If you feel as if you are flexible then you should be willing to move up to get a targeted player. Contradicting yourself here.

If health wasn’t a concern. Like any investment, you calculate risk/reward and draw a line at a certain point.

Im willing to risk pick 5. Risking pick 5 and 26 is too rich for me.

 

[jimthefin]

IF they feel Tua is THE GUY then you pay the price to get him.

How many picks would you trade for Mahomes? 3 1st's? I am not saying he is Mahomes but he might be.

If they price is not insane I am moving up to ensure no one else beats us to the punch.


But IF they don't love him then you go BPA at 5 and 18 and then try to move out of 26 to gather more picks this year and next.

I am all for building the trenches but if you have the opportunity to land a Franchise QB you do it.

The question of course is if Tua(or Herbert/Love)is a Franchise QB.

They have 2 1's and 2 2's next year so they could package picks to move up for Lawrence/Fields/Whoever next year but their own pick will likely not be a Top 5 again, more likely in the middle teens so it might be harder to get high enough for a QB.

Like I said, IF they really like Tua then this is the time to get their QB.

 

[NBP81]

Hello
I have read that link and it is great. I have been working on understanding better what people mean when they talk about value. I thought I knew till I read that link!
Anyway, could you explain what you mean in your comment that I have made bold? The value of 4 other position players.
Thank you

While this isnt directed at me, I'll just put my 2 cents in any way. It might not be for the same reasons as @FSU Truth, but I will explain why I think he's right.

If you've read my thread, then I'll assume you understand the concept of expected value I described in there...

Here's the average EV over average for different position groups at pick #3:



If you want to play around with the concept and look at different position groups at different stages depending on team needs, I built a little app to show how they all interact with each other. Just click on the link.

https://draftev-app.herokuapp.com/

 

[fansinceGWilson]

IF they feel Tua is THE GUY then you pay the price to get him.

How many picks would you trade for Mahomes? 3 1st's? I am not saying he is Mahomes but he might be.

If they price is not insane I am moving up to ensure no one else beats us to the punch.

But IF they don't love him then you go BPA at 5 and 18 and then try to move out of 26 to gather more picks this year and next.

I am all for building the trenches but if you have the opportunity to land a Franchise QB you do it.

The question of course is if Tua(or Herbert/Love)is a Franchise QB.

They have 2 1's and 2 2's next year so they could package picks to move up for Lawrence/Fields/Whoever next year but their own pick will likely not be a Top 5 again, more likely in the middle teens so it might be harder to get high enough for a QB.

Like I said, IF they really like Tua then this is the time to get their QB.

I get your point, but the problem is 9 teams didn't think he was good enough to be picked #1 through #9 WITHOUT trading value and no teams after #10 apparently thought he was good enough to outbid KC. No, not all of them needed a QB.

Therein lies the problem - player evaluation. It seems certain Burrow is #1 though no one will know for sure til draft day. After that, it's evaluation, relative risk, and cost. Personally, I think at least 4 QBs will be taken R1 and I'm inclined Miami will take one of them. You made the key point with "If." Uncertain about Tua.