1st Round drafting no QB | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

1st Round drafting no QB

Dolphinator530 said:
I do not quite get the build a great team then get the QB mentality, if people arent sold on trading up for a guy this year why is next year or the year after any different? And if you think the price is high now if Miami wins just 6 games next year could be picking between 8-11, wtf will be the price getting into the top 2 then; hell if they go 8-8 could be as high as 18. Willing to mortgage 3 years of draft picks to get the QB then. Now is the time to strike, stop being safe. Make a play for greatness. Having 1 all pro defensive guy and some starters doesn't move the needle at all. Possibly getting a top 5 QB in the league oh yeah that moves the needle. Building the roster first never seems like a great way to go and only works when a team gets lucky and gets a 6th or 3rd round pick to be the guy. Building a team then trying to find a QB makes you the Vikings, lets pass on the idea of year after year of one and done in the playoffs as our acceptable level. If you want to not take one at five thats okay but then you will have to trade both other 1st to get up to take a Love or Herbert so either way you are loosing picks. Hurts isn't a plan A, just hasn't shown the QB skills you need to be elite. Tremendous kid and leader but I wouldn't stake my career on him.

What is the obsession with keeping all 14 picks anyway; it is like people think if we keep them all then all 14 will be all pros and if we trade a few of them every player picked will be a bust. Even with this staff in place keeping 14 picks most will flame out. Id rather give them 2/3 super talented guys and then a handful of other talented guys who they can develop than 14 guys which may have 1 super talented guy and the rest need work.

But to each their own.
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People act as thought Tua is a sure thing. If that’s the case, then trade all the first rounders this year for him. Point here is its too much risk to give up your top picks for him. Get a Qb in rd 1, just not Tua.
 
Not happening. We can't wait until 2021.

Next year we will not be drafting at No. 5 overall, which means it will cost us a lot more to move up and draft a QB that's not nearly as good.
 
If the Dolphins pass on a QB entirely this draft, I would be pissed. Then what was the point of this past season? I thought the light at the end of the tunnel would be for us to be in a position to draft a potential franchise QB?? If we build our team up but pass on the QB we are no better off than the good ole Jay Fielder days where we pissed away an elite defense.
 
I expect that Miami will again be a top 8 draft team in 2021. The addition of some FA's, a rookie franchise QB, and an infusion of talented young, but inexperienced, players is a good long-term strategy but is not the recipe for short-term success. Ironing out coaching changes and schemes will also take some time.

Miami should draft a 1st round QB to get a fifth year option; they could always move back up from #39 to the bottom of the first.

I'm not convinced that trading up for Tua is a good value. Nor would I trade up for Herbert/Love, but I could see moving up to 30-32 for a Hurts/Fromm/Eason and a 5th year option.

I can suffer through a couple more building years as long as the Dolphin Dynasty returns!

RW
 
I agree with the OP. Think back to 1983. Dan Marino stepped onto a Superbowl calibur team. I often wonder how successful he would have been had he been drafted onto a lousy team. I think what was done to Tannehill while he was here was criminal. Such wasted potential.
This draft is a great opportunity to build up the trenches.
 
Bopkin02 said:
I am not familiar with the Jaguars, but are all of the guys defensive guys?
Either it says a lot about the Jaguars, or it validates what some posters have said on here about building a team, and how it is much harder to keep a defense together than an offense?
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NBP81 said:
While this isnt directed at me, I'll just put my 2 cents in any way. It might not be for the same reasons as @FSU Truth, but I will explain why I think he's right.

If you've read my thread, then I'll assume you understand the concept of expected value I described in there...

Here's the average EV over average for different position groups at pick #3:

View attachment 39320

If you want to play around with the concept and look at different position groups at different stages depending on team needs, I built a little app to show how they all interact with each other. Just click on the link.

https://draftev-app.herokuapp.com/
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NBP covers it from a analytical standpoint..I would simply ask...If you could get Mahomes right now, what would you give up? I can throw in Bosa, Tunsil, Jamal Adams, and pick a position player, and most teams would make that trade for a guy like Mahomes.
 
FSU Truth said:
NBP covers it from a analytical standpoint..I would simply ask...If you could get Mahomes right now, what would you give up? I can throw in Bosa, Tunsil, Jamal Adams, and pick a position player, and most teams would make that trade for a guy like Mahomes.
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True.......but a guy like Mahommes comes by maybe once a decade? Are you comparing anyone in this draft to to him? Burrows is the best bet but none of them are of Mahommes calibur.

We had Tannehill. The titans almost won that AFC championship because they have a great ground game and defense.
 
-MiamiSoul said:
True.......but a guy like Mahommes comes by maybe once a decade? Are you comparing anyone in this draft to to him? Burrows is the best bet but none of them are of Mahommes calibur.

We had Tannehill. The titans almost won that AFC championship because they have a great ground game and defense.
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I also included three of the best players in the NFL at their respective positions...

The argument is would you be willing to trade 3 draft players for one draft QB, I would and the value of the position says that is the best bet.

Yep, Titans did, but lets take a look at them 2 years from now. In a post above I point out how 7 or so players from the Jags great defense that went to the AFC title game are no longer on the team and the Jags have been picking in the top 10 since.

QBs give you the chance at long term success, no other positions players can do that.
 
Everyone wants to look at the Titans. I prefer to look at the Packers and Seahawks. Those teams weren't any good. Gaping personnel holes all over the place. Lousy YPPA Differential and Point Differential. Yet it equated to 13-3 and 11-5 plus a playoff victory for both teams, overwhelmingly due to excellent quarterbacks who rescued the close games.

I don't care about Chase Young one way or another. It is mind boggling to me how a player at that position can be savored by so many fans as if he's key to the franchise. Regardless of what criteria you look at an edge player no matter how special only impacts 1 of every 4-6 pass plays tops. And that's being extremely generous with the word impacts.

I don't see how anyone at Washington or Detroit could make that type of decision and then peacefully go to sleep while thinking yep I'm a big league football executive.

Analytics is gaining ground but still in its infancy stage and barely making a dent. Eventually I'm convinced we'll have examples like the Jets in the '60s with Namath the 1st pick in the AFL Draft followed by the Jets taking Notre Dame Heisman winning quarterback John Huarte with the 12th pick of that AFL Draft. Imagine the howling if something like that played out today. I guess Weeb Ewbank was supposed to be embarrassed by drafting quarterbacks back to back. I'm reminded of that OK boomer line I see from place to place nowadays. I have no idea what it means. It is priceless than anyone thinks that is clever. I guess that's what happens when you get addicted to social media and assume everyone else is also. Yes, I am a member of the Baby boomer generation. If someone wants to feel embarrassed for me I'll make note of it.

BTW, when the Jets made the AFC title game back to back about a decade ago the mockery around here was that it was meaningless other than to ruin the draft pick. Now an AFC title game loss is defined as Tannehill nearly leading a team to the Super Bowl.
 
I think a player like ChasexYoung isnt that valuable anymore because the NFL has become very anti defensive. So hard for a great defensive player to play to full potential without getting penalized to death.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
Everyone wants to look at the Titans. I prefer to look at the Packers and Seahawks. Those teams weren't any good. Gaping personnel holes all over the place. Lousy YPPA Differential and Point Differential. Yet it equated to 13-3 and 11-5 plus a playoff victory for both teams, overwhelmingly due to excellent quarterbacks who rescued the close games.

I don't care about Chase Young one way or another. It is mind boggling to me how a player at that position can be savored by so many fans as if he's key to the franchise. Regardless of what criteria you look at an edge player no matter how special only impacts 1 of every 4-6 pass plays tops. And that's being extremely generous with the word impacts.

I don't see how anyone at Washington or Detroit could make that type of decision and then peacefully go to sleep while thinking yep I'm a big league football executive.

Analytics is gaining ground but still in its infancy stage and barely making a dent. Eventually I'm convinced we'll have examples like the Jets in the '60s with Namath the 1st pick in the AFL Draft followed by the Jets taking Notre Dame Heisman winning quarterback John Huarte with the 12th pick of that AFL Draft. Imagine the howling if something like that played out today. I guess Weeb Ewbank was supposed to be embarrassed by drafting quarterbacks back to back. I'm reminded of that OK boomer line I see from place to place nowadays. I have no idea what it means. It is priceless than anyone thinks that is clever. I guess that's what happens when you get addicted to social media and assume everyone else is also. Yes, I am a member of the Baby boomer generation. If someone wants to feel embarrassed for me I'll make note of it.

BTW, when the Jets made the AFC title game back to back about a decade ago the mockery around here was that it was meaningless other than to ruin the draft pick. Now an AFC title game loss is defined as Tannehill nearly leading a team to the Super Bowl.
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What an absolutely awesome summarization.
I was not in the trading up crowd, but if Tua is the guy, then decide on the value and get him. What a great way to illustrate the value of the QB over other positons. If he's not the guy, then I'm not sure. Herbert or Love at 5 is OK if they fit what the team wants.
Shout out to FSU Truth's response as well.
Outstanding and well explained in every day language. There are some outstanding posters on here who sometimes don't always put their thoughts into every day words. This post did the trick.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
I don't care about Chase Young one way or another. It is mind boggling to me how a player at that position can be savored by so many fans as if he's key to the franchise. Regardless of what criteria you look at an edge player no matter how special only impacts 1 of every 4-6 pass plays tops. And that's being extremely generous with the word impacts.
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You could argue that even though a pass rusher doesn't impact a play directly they do have an impact indirectly by offenses having to account for them and adjust protections in order to account for an elite rusher. Having said that you could say the exact same thing about a shut down corner, I'm not going to throw the ball his way because he's too damn good. Your general point is right though, I don't see how a defensive player, who by nature is reactive or preventative in his play can be more valuable than the person that dictates how the offense attacks the D, and has control of the ball on 100% of the offensive downs.
 
Geordie said:
You could argue that even though a pass rusher doesn't impact a play directly they do have an impact indirectly by offenses having to account for them and adjust protections in order to account for an elite rusher. Having said that you could say the exact same thing about a shut down corner, I'm not going to throw the ball his way because he's too damn good. Your general point is right though, I don't see how a defensive player, who by nature is reactive or preventative in his play can be more valuable than the person that dictates how the offense attacks the D, and has control of the ball on 100% of the offensive downs.
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Pass rushers don't get enough credit for 'almost.' An almost sack can force a quick throw and an INT. An almost sack can make the QB pull the ball down and force a short pass. An almost sack can allow another guy to get the sack. And I agree with your top CB analogy. Football is a sport with very few (no?) stats that aren't influenced by others.

We've all seen an elite D guy influence a game and rattle a QB. We've all seen a elite D guy force the O to abandon the long pass. They CAN and DO influence a game. Not against an elite QB, but there aren't many of those.

That doesn't mean I don't want a QB early R1. Although some won't admit it, fans have no idea how Flo sees Rosen or how he'll be seen in August. Nonetheless, if a QB falls to Miami, I'm in.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Pass rushers don't get enough credit for 'almost.' An almost sack can force a quick throw and an INT. An almost sack can make the QB pull the ball down and force a short pass. An almost sack can allow another guy to get the sack. And I agree with your top CB analogy. Football is a sport with very few (no?) stats that aren't influenced by others.

We've all seen an elite D guy influence a game and rattle a QB. We've all seen a elite D guy force the O to abandon the long pass. They CAN and DO influence a game. Not against an elite QB, but there aren't many of those.

That doesn't mean I don't want a QB early R1. Although some won't admit it, fans have no idea how Flo sees Rosen or how he'll be seen in August. Nonetheless, if a QB falls to Miami, I'm in.
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The important thing for us all, the Owner, FO, coaching staff and us lowly fans, is that we are not married to one single outcome. That's going to get us into a lot of trouble if we are. They are sensibly putting it out there right now that Herbert is very much in their thought process and that they've scouted 2021 prospects as well. Despite all that, I firmly believe that if you don't think that Plan A is to take Tua with a reasonable trade up if required, then you've not watched how this whole thing has unfolded closely enough. But really what is equally important is that the FO have a Plan B, that could be Herbert at 5, or taking Simmons/Okouda/Brown there and swinging back for Love at 18 with a small trade up if necessary (which it will be). If that does happen and Tua isn't the pick then I hope the fan base gets behind whoever is the guy, the FO and coaching staff have put their jobs on the line here and should be held accountable if their approach fails.
 
You do not have to start your build with a QB, but if you can get one you do it.

IF i love Tua then I move up to ensure I get him, that is the luxury of having extra picks.

IF you invest like that in a young QB then the only thing you HAVE to do is make sure the OL is solid or better.That means drafting at least 1 quality OT in this Draft as well as having already spent some Cap space on the OL.

Then you can turn your attention to defense and offensive weapons, but OL is a must with a young QB early in his development.
 
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