2017 Miami Dolphins Playoffs Scenarios

Kdawg954

My f*ck ups be the perfect mistakes
Finheaven VIP
Joined
Apr 14, 2006
Messages
25,190
Reaction score
8,653
Location
Broward County, FL
Spare me all of the nonsense about what this team can't and won't do. Entering week 14, with 4 games left, Miami still has the slimest of chances to make a push at the playoffs. So I figure I put together a small little road map if anybody is interested:

First things first . . . Miami has to win out and go 9-7. I think this goes without saying, and with the Patriots coming to town for a primetime showdown next Monday . . . it certainly looks like a grim task. We will have to summon the football gods of 2004 and maybe get some luck from a potential Gronk suspension to have a shot.

2004, you remember that don't you:



Another Monday night primetime game against these dudes and for one night, even during the midst of a losing season full of turmoil, we reigned supreme and put together one of the most memorable wins of the last 25 years for Dolfans. Maybe we need to dust off those orange unis and repeat history again.

If we manage to win this game, then we are looking at playing a Bills team twice that could be starting Nathan Peterman and a reeling Chiefs team in their building. Certainly not gimme games but games that if we play like we played this Sunday, we can win.

So let's not dwell much longer . . . we are going to assume a 9-7 record.

What needs to happen:

Miami at 9-7 would finish 2nd in the AFC east as the Bills could finish no better than 8-8 and a potental 9-7 Jets team would have 3 division losses while Miami would only have 2.

Miami would also have or be tied for the best conference record in the AFC wildcard chase as they would be 8-4 in the AFC


With the Jets and Bills eliminated from the equation, the teams Miami are contending against are: Patriots, Jags, Titans, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers.

New England has already wrapped up the AFC East Division in a 9-7 scenario. That leaves 5 playoff spots for 9 teams.

Pittsburgh is all but in at this point. 1 conference loss and 9 wins and they finish with the Browns at home. We are going to assume they take the division over Baltimore.

I am also eliminating the Bengals . . . they just need 1 loss and they have road games @ Minny and @ Bmore. Plus already with 5 conference losses.

That leaves 4 spots for 7 teams.

When we beat the Chiefs in our 9-7 scenario . . . every team in the AFC West would have 5 losses in conference at minimum. We would also have head to head of LAC and KC, but not Oakland, but Oaklands schedule of @ Phi, @ KC, @ LAC and vs. Dal . . . I feel comfortable that they won't finish better than 2-2, keeping them at 8 wins. So between Chiefs and Chargers, one wins the division the other one is lesser in a tiebreak than us.

So now that leaves 3 spots for 4 teams

This is where it becomes challenging to get in

Miami, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Baltimore are left. Either Jacksonville or Tennessee will win the AFC South so truthfully its 2 spots for 3 teams but they play in the final game of the year so we will factor them both in for now.

One of those 3 teams Miami is up against need to have a meltdown of some sort. Tennessee/Jacksonville are 3 games in front of Miami and Baltimore is 2 games in front of Miami.

Jacksonville only has 2 conference losses so far . . . they are the team you hope wins that AFC South and puts Tennessee in the wildcard picture as they already have 4 conference losses . We also have the head to head against them.

Baltimore we don't have that, but a 9-7 Baltimore team would have 5 conference losses so by default would lose the tiebreaker to Miami . . . IF another 9-7 team is in the picture.

It is tricky because Baltimore going 2-2 and finishing 9-7 is absolutely possible . . . however Miami needs another 9-7 team in that scenario or Baltimore wins the tiebreak. Whether its Tennessee or Jacksonville, or even one of the AFC West teams . . . somebody has to finish 9-7, with Miami and Baltimore.

Wrap Up

So as far as this week goes this is what you should be rooting for (in order):

Miami over NE (obviously the most important)
Pitt over Baltimore
Arizona over Tennessee
Seattle over Jacksonville
KC over Oakland
Washington over Chargers
Chicago over Cincinnati


We got this!

 

Fins1971

C'mon Dolphins
Finheaven VIP
Joined
Nov 3, 2009
Messages
8,826
Reaction score
2,239
Location
Zen Ridge
Nice write up. What a crappy AFC when you are still alive at 5-7. Doesn't much matter. Keep betting the Patriots.
 

Danny

Finheaven VIP
Finheaven VIP
Joined
Apr 17, 2003
Messages
31,994
Reaction score
33,949
Location
Kissimmee,FL
lmmfao.....now for real, nice of you to take the time to write all that up even thought I can't see it happening. I believe that beating a horrible broncos team yesterday have "some" people believing on this team again. How many times have we fallen for this in the past? Sorry but not this time. The team doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt at this point. Beat NE and then we can start dreaming but beating Denver won't change my opinion or that of many others

Ozzy rules!!
 

BlueFin

Seer of Visions
Finheaven VIP
Joined
Jun 2, 2004
Messages
18,228
Reaction score
2,678
Location
Weeki Wachee, Florida
It could happen.......may not be likely....one game at a time.

Play like madmen at home against the Patsies....nothing to lose madness!
 

mrbunglez

Reading Is Fundamental
Joined
Jan 17, 2008
Messages
8,852
Reaction score
4,449
Location
West Palm Beach
I think the only other 2 games this team has a chance of winning is one of the Bills games and KC. Even then I wouldn’t be surprised getting swept by the Bills and KC beating this team. This team doesn’t have the firepower to win out.
 

phins_4_ever

E12 FH Tailgate Gang
Moderator
Finheaven VIP
Joined
Jan 9, 2002
Messages
29,486
Reaction score
10,768
Location
S Florida/Dolphins Nation
Nice write up. What a crappy AFC when you are still alive at 5-7. Doesn't much matter. Keep betting the Patriots.
lmmfao.....now for real, nice of you to take the time to write all that up even thought I can't see it happening. I believe that beating a horrible broncos team yesterday have "some" people believing on this team again. How many times have we fallen for this in the past? Sorry but not this time. The team doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt at this point. Beat NE and then we can start dreaming but beating Denver won't change my opinion or that of many others

Ozzy rules!!
I think the only other 2 games this team has a chance of winning is one of the Bills games and KC. Even then I wouldn’t be surprised getting swept by the Bills and KC beating this team. This team doesn’t have the firepower to win out.
Did you all not read the first sentence?
Spare me all of the nonsense about what this team can't and won't do.
This is not about what this team can't or won't do. It is a discussion about a playoff scenario as long as we are not mathematically eliminated. It is a fun thread. There are plenty of "fun threads" about how we should tank the season and that we are the worst team in the NFL etc. Join those.

Yesterday at our "Finheaven" tailgate a Dolphins fan from overseas joined us (member at Finheaven). He scheduled his vacation around that one single home game he could watch. His eyes were glowing before the game and especially after the game. He loved it all: the tailgating, the stadium, the game, the win and we both agreed as a fan you never give up. No matter how remote the possibility or how minuscule the chance as long as we are not eliminated mathematically a fan always has that calculator in the back pocket.
 

phins_4_ever

E12 FH Tailgate Gang
Moderator
Finheaven VIP
Joined
Jan 9, 2002
Messages
29,486
Reaction score
10,768
Location
S Florida/Dolphins Nation
Spare me all of the nonsense about what this team can't and won't do. Entering week 14, with 4 games left, Miami still has the slimest of chances to make a push at the playoffs. So I figure I put together a small little road map if anybody is interested:

First things first . . . Miami has to win out and go 9-7. I think this goes without saying, and with the Patriots coming to town for a primetime showdown next Monday . . . it certainly looks like a grim task. We will have to summon the football gods of 2004 and maybe get some luck from a potential Gronk suspension to have a shot.

2004, you remember that don't you:



Another Monday night primetime game against these dudes and for one night, even during the midst of a losing season full of turmoil, we reigned supreme and put together one of the most memorable wins of the last 25 years for Dolfans. Maybe we need to dust off those orange unis and repeat history again.

If we manage to win this game, then we are looking at playing a Bills team twice that could be starting Nathan Peterman and a reeling Chiefs team in their building. Certainly not gimme games but games that if we play like we played this Sunday, we can win.

So let's not dwell much longer . . . we are going to assume a 9-7 record.

What needs to happen:

Miami at 9-7 would finish 2nd in the AFC east as the Bills could finish no better than 8-8 and a potental 9-7 Jets team would have 3 division losses while Miami would only have 2.

Miami would also have or be tied for the best conference record in the AFC wildcard chase as they would be 8-4 in the AFC


With the Jets and Bills eliminated from the equation, the teams Miami are contending against are: Patriots, Jags, Titans, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers.

New England has already wrapped up the AFC East Division in a 9-7 scenario. That leaves 5 playoff spots for 9 teams.

Pittsburgh is all but in at this point. 1 conference loss and 9 wins and they finish with the Browns at home. We are going to assume they take the division over Baltimore.

I am also eliminating the Bengals . . . they just need 1 loss and they have road games @ Minny and @ Bmore. Plus already with 5 conference losses.

That leaves 4 spots for 7 teams.

When we beat the Chiefs in our 9-7 scenario . . . every team in the AFC West would have 5 losses in conference at minimum. We would also have head to head of LAC and KC, but not Oakland, but Oaklands schedule of @ Phi, @ KC, @ LAC and vs. Dal . . . I feel comfortable that they won't finish better than 2-2, keeping them at 8 wins. So between Chiefs and Chargers, one wins the division the other one is lesser in a tiebreak than us.

So now that leaves 3 spots for 4 teams

This is where it becomes challenging to get in

Miami, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Baltimore are left. Either Jacksonville or Tennessee will win the AFC South so truthfully its 2 spots for 3 teams but they play in the final game of the year so we will factor them both in for now.

One of those 3 teams Miami is up against need to have a meltdown of some sort. Tennessee/Jacksonville are 3 games in front of Miami and Baltimore is 2 games in front of Miami.

Jacksonville only has 2 conference losses so far . . . they are the team you hope wins that AFC South and puts Tennessee in the wildcard picture as they already have 4 conference losses . We also have the head to head against them.

Baltimore we don't have that, but a 9-7 Baltimore team would have 5 conference losses so by default would lose the tiebreaker to Miami . . . IF another 9-7 team is in the picture.

It is tricky because Baltimore going 2-2 and finishing 9-7 is absolutely possible . . . however Miami needs another 9-7 team in that scenario or Baltimore wins the tiebreak. Whether its Tennessee or Jacksonville, or even one of the AFC West teams . . . somebody has to finish 9-7, with Miami and Baltimore.

Wrap Up

So as far as this week goes this is what you should be rooting for (in order):

Miami over NE (obviously the most important)
Pitt over Baltimore
Arizona over Tennessee
Seattle over Jacksonville
KC over Oakland
Washington over Chargers
Chicago over Cincinnati


We got this!

well done Dawg. Hope there is another update next Monday.
 

Awsi Dooger

Super Duper Club
Joined
Feb 8, 2005
Messages
9,449
Reaction score
2,943
Location
Las Vegas
Nice write up. What a crappy AFC when you are still alive at 5-7. Doesn't much matter. Keep betting the Patriots.
Technically alive but in looking at the requirements it can't be above 1%. That's probably being generous. The odds on the Dolphins winning out would be in the 40/1 range all by itself. We're going to be an underdog each of the next three games and this week it begins with +11.5 currently against the Patriots. That equates to a money line win likelihood of maybe 17% if I'm again being generous. Then roll that over with additional plus numbers at Kansas City and Buffalo. The Chiefs may be playing poorly but their power rating remains considerably above the Dolphins'. So even if we use an extremely low estimate of 3.5 point underdogs at Kansas City, then that's a 35% opportunity. So forth and so forth. Too much burden when every outcome has to be a victory and margin for error is gone. Even if we got hot and the opponents collapsed, resulting in wildly altered odds week to week, then the 40/1 still can't dip much lower than 25/1. The Dolphins aren't going to be cruising into Kansas City and Buffalo as decisive road chalk.

Let's put it this way...even if we were Even money in each of the 4 remaining games then it's theoretically 1 chance in 16. Yet we start out as dramatically worse than Even money in the opening flip.

And none of that begins to account for all the bizarre series of events required elsewhere, even if the Dolphins somehow overcame the 40/1. The AFC looked weak at midseason but that has quietly normalized, which was the logical favorite all along. If you took a couple of victories apiece away from the Titans and Jaguars, and if we owned the tiebreaker against the Ravens instead of the other way around, then I'd be willing to listen just a little bit. But owning a good sense of math and probability I'll continue to root for the Dolphins while recognizing that our -1.7 YPPA Differential at third worst in the league aligns with a very weak team, and one that can't overcome 40/1 or wiggle through a maze toward the playoffs.
 

SkapePhin

Rump Shaker
Finheaven VIP
Joined
May 20, 2002
Messages
40,257
Reaction score
9,756
I was at that 2004 game, but I missed the wild comeback because my friend was coming down with a cold and it was unusually cold that night. I just remember walking out into the parking lot and hearing a huge roar and I knew the comeback was on. Flipped on the radio in the car and listened to the win on the way out. Great game.
 

phins_4_ever

E12 FH Tailgate Gang
Moderator
Finheaven VIP
Joined
Jan 9, 2002
Messages
29,486
Reaction score
10,768
Location
S Florida/Dolphins Nation
Technically alive but in looking at the requirements it can't be above 1%. That's probably being generous. The odds on the Dolphins winning out would be in the 40/1 range all by itself. We're going to be an underdog each of the next three games and this week it begins with +11.5 currently against the Patriots. That equates to a money line win likelihood of maybe 17% if I'm again being generous. Then roll that over with additional plus numbers at Kansas City and Buffalo. The Chiefs may be playing poorly but their power rating remains considerably above the Dolphins'. So even if we use an extremely low estimate of 3.5 point underdogs at Kansas City, then that's a 35% opportunity. So forth and so forth. Too much burden when every outcome has to be a victory and margin for error is gone. Even if we got hot and the opponents collapsed, resulting in wildly altered odds week to week, then the 40/1 still can't dip much lower than 25/1. The Dolphins aren't going to be cruising into Kansas City and Buffalo as decisive road chalk.

Let's put it this way...even if we were Even money in each of the 4 remaining games then it's theoretically 1 chance in 16. Yet we start out as dramatically worse than Even money in the opening flip.

And none of that begins to account for all the bizarre series of events required elsewhere, even if the Dolphins somehow overcame the 40/1. The AFC looked weak at midseason but that has quietly normalized, which was the logical favorite all along. If you took a couple of victories apiece away from the Titans and Jaguars, and if we owned the tiebreaker against the Ravens instead of the other way around, then I'd be willing to listen just a little bit. But owning a good sense of math and probability I'll continue to root for the Dolphins while recognizing that our -1.7 YPPA Differential at third worst in the league aligns with a very weak team, and one that can't overcome 40/1 or wiggle through a maze toward the playoffs.
Good lordy. Really?
 
Top Bottom