More often than not I just take the points. I have done plenty of money line research but not nearly as much as pointspread related.
One of my favorite theories is to throw teams in the same block and take +4 or higher with the road team. The NFL has tons of teams in the same basic range of ability. There's far too much nitpicking involved instead of accepting that the teams are basically even. For example, why was Buffalo getting +7 at Chicago on the first weekend? Buffalo is not terrible and Chicago is hardly a juggernaut. Both are what I would call Crowd teams, as opposed to Cream or Crap. Yet the spread is +7 among two Crowd teams. That's the type of scenario I love. I've been betting that angle since 1984. I discovered it while going through NFL results in Montebello, CA. It was startling how much of an advantage there was, by simply taking +4 or above with the road team among equal brackets. I bet it on opening weekend in 1984 and won every one of them. I think it was 6-0. One of them was the Dolphins at Washington, Marino's famous game. I had them both in the Cream category and took +4.5. If Washington had been at Miami getting +4 or higher, I would have taken them. Few decisions and no second guessing that way. Eventually I discovered some situational trends that counteract the basic +4 system but it's still very reliable, especially early in the season before all the situational trends kick in. I saw nyjunc post that Buffalo beating Chicago was a shocker. What? It's only a shocker if you assigned things that weren't there. That's what the sportsbooks rely on.
Also, money line bargains are seldom available. I do keep a chart and bet them when somebody makes a mistake. That happens seldom these days, compared to years and decades ago. The MGM Grand, for example, had a sportsbook manager who intentionally gave out massive money line bargains in the '90s. He picked certain favorites he thought couldn't lose and knowingly set the money line so high on those games to make sure the local wise guys would pound the money line underdog.
Kansas City might have so many guys out or hurting that they don't resemble their true selves. Still, it's a +4 game for me unless some situational system nullifies that. I haven't gone through everything yet. Last weekend I actually bet against both teams for the same reason. Kansas City was also in a negative Fury of Anti Revenge spot. They lost both games to Denver last season and now were facing them early on the road. I got a late rally to cover that one. Denver trailed 10-7 then scored two touchdowns to lead at halftime 21-10. For some reason I get lucky on first half wagers, far beyond game spreads or second half bets.
