Well, in that scenario I would take Wentz. I'm not a believer in waiting and waiting for a quarterback to pan out. Naturally there are examples when it has happened, and I'm more encouraged with a young guy in charge as opposed to last year when there was no logical hope for major advancement since we were merely a slightly altered version of the prior two years, but overall I default to probability and where 50/50 falls. We keep trying to pretend that the lower percentage route is just fine. We'll be the exception.
Obviously we won't take a quarterback. Given that reality I'd debate between Nkemdiche and Darron Lee, but default to the bigger guy. As I mentioned last night, I really don't know where Nkemdiche will fall, given his supposed issues. The Nawrocki draft guide makes the point that Nkemdiche's older brother has been the problem, that Robert idolizes him and has made some poor choices while being in denial of his brother's faults.
There really are fewer great athletes than standard in this draft. For example, last year there was a buzz on a second tier cornerback. But he was Byron Jones, who tested as a freak athlete and justified the hype. This year I've seen people try to similarly push William Jackson and Artie Burns. Meanwhile, both of them tested as duds.
I'm still intrigued by Murray of Minnesota, who I mentioned a couple of months ago. Very nasty disposition for a press cornerback. Real battler. In an ideal world I'd like Nkemdiche or Lee in the first round, followed by a very athletic lineman like Spriggs in the second round, then Murray in the third. I'd also consider Hargrave of South Carolina State if he fell to the third.
Then later on I like Thomas the receiver from Southern Miss, who I mentioned here a few months ago. I have no idea how he wasn't invited to the combine. I suspect that error is fairly obvious and he will be nabbed earlier than expected.
If we fail to take Nkemdiche I'd look at Gotsis of Georgia Tech in a later round.
For later round quarterbacks, I still like Brandon Allen of Arkansas as a high caliber backup. Otherwise, I've never been high on Dak Prescott from a subjective point of view, but when you examine his bottom line of completion percentages, yards per attempt, touchdown/interception ratio and victories in a top conference you have to conclude he might be superior to conventional wisdom. After all, I make hundreds of wagers every year that I fully expect to lose, when they fit my systems. I'd be willing to set aside my long term opinion of Prescott in favor of the numbers. He also has a nice compact delivery.
I really wish I had taken notes during the bowl games. I watched every one of them, other than the Nevada game which I somehow forgot to tape. When I was younger I could remember all the prospects from those games but now there's some slippage. In particular I remember being impressed by defenders from smaller schools in the early bowl games. Now I can't identify them.
Oh yeah, if the Dolphins are interested in upgrading at kicker the UCLA kid Fairbairn could be excellent value. He might be available in the 6th or 7th round. Frankly I don't even remember the name of our kicker. I know that when we changed both kickers last season I posted that the punting switch made a great deal of sense but that the new kicker had lousy mechanics, was certain to miss left quite often, and seemed like change merely for the purpose of change. Fairbairn would be a considerable upgrade. He quietly won the Groza award over Aguayo last season. Fairbairn has fantastic mechanics. I'm always a stickler for mechanics because I've bet on so many field goal results in man to man situations in Las Vegas. You have to be able to identify where the kicker will err at default. We bet right or left of dead center, not on whether the kick is successful.
Fairbairn also has tremendous initial height. That aspect really sets him apart. I'm not sure about leg strength. That's always tougher to evaluate with a guy who kicked in a warm weather climate in college.
